Driver or Lay Up - a Poll

[StuM]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

It's unlikely the 18th hole is a 325-yard par four. 🙂

You should read farther into that book you got last week. 😄

You are correct.  It will be interesting to see how my knowledge evolves 

the OP said it was a 325 yard hole.

Edited February 25, 2021 by StuM

[iacas]

1 hour ago, StuM said:

You are correct.  It will be interesting to see how my knowledge evolves 

Good.

1 hour ago, StuM said:

the OP said it was a 325 yard hole.

Yes. I'm saying it's unlikely the 18th hole at a course is a 325-yard par four, in response to someone else.

[StuM]

20 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yes. I'm saying it's unlikely the 18th hole at a course is a 325-yard par four, in response to someone else.

Opps. 

[GolfLug]

19 hours ago, iacas said:

Originally here, a Twitter poll asks:

• You are a scratch player that averages 290 yards off the tee.
• You're playing a 325-yard hole with water in play (if you hit the water, you drop at 80 yards in the rough).
• With driver, you will hit fairway 40%, rough 35%, and water 25% of the time.
• If you lay up to 100 yards to take the water out of play, you'll hit the fairway 80% of the time and the rough 20% of the time.

What is the correct play? Vote in the poll above.

Then look at the spoiler for PGA Tour data.

  Hide contents

PGA Tour Info

• Driver: 0.4 * 3.55 + 0.35 * 3.75 + 0.25 * (1 + 3.96) = 3.9725
• Lay Up: 0.8 * 3.80 + 0.2 * 4.02 = 3.844

In other words, on the PGA Tour, it would make sense to lay up, by about 1/8th of a shot. But is the same true of a scratch golfer?

PGA Tour data is in the spoiler.

Part of reason I chose driver is because if I am avging 290, I am thinking birdie chance even from rough. Chances of birdie from 45 yards significantly higher than from 100 in. Higher than the 25 percent chance of ending up in the drink. Also, outside chance of GIR/nGIR. 

Layup seems too defensive in this case. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by GolfLug

[iacas]

7 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Part of reason I chose driver is because if I am avging 290, I am thinking birdie chance even from rough. Chances of birdie from 45 yards significantly higher than from 100 in. Higher than the 25 percent chance of ending up in the drink. Also, outside chance of GIR/nGIR. 

Layup seems too defensive in this case. 

Did you expand the PGA Tour stats?

They birdie from the rough only 1/4 of the time. And you're not as good as they are (as the scratch golfer in the question).

[GolfLug]

8 minutes ago, iacas said:

Did you expand the PGA Tour stats?

I did. Thinking is, Tour player make their fair share of birdies elsewhere and understandably more risk averse even on short holes. 

Birdies don't come by that easily for a scratch, hence should be more aggressive when a chance presents itself with manageable risk.

Edited February 25, 2021 by GolfLug

[iacas]

2 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

I did. Thinking is, Tour player make their fair share of birdies elsewhere and understandably more risk averse even on short holes. 

Birdies don't come by that easily for a scratch, hence should be more aggressive when a chance presents itself with manageable risk.

Umm, no.

Re-read that book I wrote, man. 🙂

[ChetlovesMer]

I think the "correct" choice is to lay-up.  If I'm playing in a tournament I would definitely lay up. 

HOWEVER, if I'm playing with the usual gang of jokers I play golf with and there are bragging rights on the line... I think you know the answer. 

[GolfLug]

29 minutes ago, iacas said:

They birdie from the rough only 1/4 of the time. And you're not as good as they are (as the scratch golfer in the question).

Ahh, this is the stat I did not think about.

[phillyk]

Where is the water?  Just based on the question, it depends if we really need a birdie or not.  I'd probably hit driver most of the time, anyway. 

[dennyjones]

Most of the time I'd lay up.   No, make that all of the time.     Risk and reward. 

[Beastie]

So do we have similar stats for a scratch player? I don’t hit it 290 so I’m laying up, but if I did hit it that far then it would depend on how I was feeling, playing, the situation etc. It’s got to be a pretty close call. 

[iacas]

So a scratch player, it's about dead even. Which is why I didn't give the choice to say "either." 🙂