2021 NFL Draft

[saevel25]

Tonight is the night! 

There are some crazy story lines going on. Will the top 5 players taken be all QB's! Will the 49ers take Mac Jones or Trey Lance! 

For me, I am just wondering where Justin Fields falls to. Honestly, the narrative about him has been utter BS. Like the notion he got off his first read only 7 times last season. Then it was totally debunked and shown he has gone to a 2nd or more read more often than any other QB being drafted this year. Also, he has the highest QB grade when going past the 1st read than any other QB. 

 

Here are some interesting tweets..

 

 

 

[boogielicious]

  On 4/29/2021 at 7:26 PM, saevel25 said:

Tonight is the night! 

There are some crazy story lines going on. Will the top 5 players taken be all QB's! Will the 49ers take Mac Jones or Trey Lance! 

For me, I am just wondering where Justin Fields falls to. Honestly, the narrative about him has been utter BS. Like the notion he got off his first read only 7 times last season. Then it was totally debunked and shown he has gone to a 2nd or more read more often than any other QB being drafted this year. Also, he has the highest QB grade when going past the 1st read than any other QB. 

 

Here are some interesting tweets..

 

 

 

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What are the odds that most will be busts? It happens so often.

[saevel25]

  On 4/29/2021 at 7:43 PM, boogielicious said:

What are the odds that most will be busts? It happens so often.

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Just under 50% of 1st round players don't turn into players who play more than 12 games a season for at least 4 seasons. Its a 50/50 shot you get a consistent starter. 

For QB's, its around the same odds to be a starter in the NFL. 

I feel like a QB will not turn your franchise around. I think they all need development first (2-3 years). Then you need just a good culture for the franchise. 

[dennyjones]

  On 4/29/2021 at 7:26 PM, saevel25 said:

Tonight is the night! 

There are some crazy story lines going on. Will the top 5 players taken be all QB's! Will the 49ers take Mac Jones or Trey Lance! 

For me, I am just wondering where Justin Fields falls to. Honestly, the narrative about him has been utter BS. Like the notion he got off his first read only 7 times last season. Then it was totally debunked and shown he has gone to a 2nd or more read more often than any other QB being drafted this year. Also, he has the highest QB grade when going past the 1st read than any other QB. 

 

Here are some interesting tweets..

 

 

 

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the stats have to be misleading for the Lions.   Almost anyone can play for them and they keep players until they need walkers!   

 

ESPN is reporting that Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to return to the Packers.   This could change everything.

[saevel25]

  On 4/29/2021 at 10:13 PM, dennyjones said:

ESPN is reporting that Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to return to the Packers.   This could change everything.

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Maybe if Green Bay was near the top 10. Being 29th, they would have to mortgage the next 4 years to get up there. I don't see it happening. 

  On 4/29/2021 at 10:13 PM, dennyjones said:

the stats have to be misleading for the Lions.   Almost anyone can play for them and they keep players until they need walkers!   

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That is a good point. 

 

[iacas]

  On 4/29/2021 at 11:38 PM, saevel25 said:

Maybe if Green Bay was near the top 10. Being 29th, they would have to mortgage the next 4 years to get up there. I don't see it happening. 

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Wasn't he saying that they could trade Rodgers to someone and pick, say, third or something?

[saevel25]

  On 4/29/2021 at 11:42 PM, iacas said:

Wasn't he saying that they could trade Rodgers to someone and pick, say, third or something?

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Oh, that makes more sense now. Didn't think of that. Yea, that could be big. 

[Vinsk]

If the deal the 49ers reportedly offered the Packers for Aaron Rodgers is true, it could shatter the 2021 NFL Draft into a million little pieces

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The 2021 NFL Draft has the chance to go down as the single greatest quarterback draft in NFL history. It...

Quite a stir up…

[saevel25]

I am kind-of hoping Fields drops to a somewhat good team. I don't want to see him play for a dumpster fire. 

[dennyjones]

He's in Chicago.   They need a good QB

[boogielicious]

How did Mac Jones fall to the Patriots?

[Vinsk]

  On 4/30/2021 at 11:11 AM, boogielicious said:

How did Mac Jones fall to the Patriots?

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Well that possibly unfair criticism he got pre-draft kinda messed things up. The 49’ers fan based hatred of the idea of them trading up to get him didn’t sit well. And of course Belichick is the luckiest coach alive in drafts….scored him without even having to trade a spot….

[saevel25]

  On 4/30/2021 at 1:49 AM, dennyjones said:

He's in Chicago.   They need a good QB

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Not happy about him going to Chicago. Not a great history of success in recent years. Though, I think they stick with their QB for a while at least. 

Looking at the offense he runs, fields might be the best QB for the system. Though, I don't think Ohio State ran that many RPO's like the Chicago coach likes to run. 

  On 4/30/2021 at 11:11 AM, boogielicious said:

How did Mac Jones fall to the Patriots?

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Positional need. You only had 5-6 teams who needed a QB. Denver didn't pick a QB. So that made it 5 teams. The top three teams picked a QB. The next was Chicago that moved up to get Fields. Which makes sense reading up on their HC and OC. They like athletic players, and run RPO scheme. Fields fits that better than Jones. NE just sat there and kind-of knew that Fields or Jones would be there for them. 

 

[boogielicious]

  On 4/30/2021 at 2:41 PM, saevel25 said:

Not happy about him going to Chicago. Not a great history of success in recent years. Though, I think they stick with their QB for a while at least. 

Looking at the offense he runs, fields might be the best QB for the system. Though, I don't think Ohio State ran that many RPO's like the Chicago coach likes to run. 

Positional need. You only had 5-6 teams who needed a QB. Denver didn't pick a QB. So that made it 5 teams. The top three teams picked a QB. The next was Chicago that moved up to get Fields. Which makes sense reading up on their HC and OC. They like athletic players, and run RPO scheme. Fields fits that better than Jones. NE just sat there and kind-of knew that Fields or Jones would be there for them. 

 

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I hope neither is a bust.

[saevel25]

  On 4/30/2021 at 2:42 PM, boogielicious said:

I hope neither is a bust.

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Honestly, I think every program got the QB that probably fits their schemes the best. For the Jets, its any QB because they just won't succeed there 😛 

 

[saevel25]

Football Outsider's take on Mac Jones....

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Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Upside: Eli Manning
Downside: Zach Mettenberger
Best Comparison: Derek Carr

When an offense-oriented coach watches Jones make fine-but-not-extraordinary decisions in a fully optimized environment, he doesn't see distortions or limitations. He sees validation of an offensive coordinator's vision, and he imagines himself enjoying that same success. Defensive coaches, meanwhile, see a "safe, coachable" choice. All but the most forward-thinking coaches define "intelligence" as a quarterback's ability to parrot back what they are taught at a whiteboard. It's a closed loop with implicit bias baked right into the batter.

Therefore, the NFL's self-fulfilling prophecy is destined to fulfill itself once again, in fulfillment of the prophecy. Kyle Shanahan may have blinked when staring into the abyss, but Jones will still get an outstanding opportunity to be an NFL starter, because outstanding NFL starting opportunities are custom-tailored to quarterbacks like him.

I think Justin Fields is a better prospect than Jones. Heck, I think Daniel Jones was a better prospect than Mac Jones. That said, I don't think Jones is the stumblebum he's made out to be when the draft hipsters work themselves into a lather. Jones will succeed, to some degree, because he's designed to succeed in a culture that has designed for him to succeed.

This selection will be hailed as a Belichick coup. In fact, it's a continuation of an offseason that sees the Patriots building towards a 9-8 record.

Worst of all, the name "Mac Jones" is just going to keep causing me migraines for the next four years or so.

So the upside is two more Super Bowl wins intermixed with garbage seasons. I think Bill takes it 😛 

I am hoping for Derek Carr, lol. 

I like the take on how NFL teams see QB's that succeed in a very good offensive scheme. It is backed up by Mac Jones throwing to the #1 guy most of any of the QB's in this draft, and just how good the OC at Alabama was at getting him a good look with their two top 10 WR drafted WR this year. Lets not forget a 1st round RB taken by the Stealers. Yea, he was just in the most optimal spot ever. Imagine if any of the QB's taken before him were in that scheme, I think they do just as well or better. Especially since most of them are more athletic and have a better arm. 

Speaking of Harris for Pittsburgh...

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Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

How excited am I allowed to be about a running back when writing for an analytics-savvy audience? I don't want to be ostracized from the analytics community. Again.

Harris looks like Derrick Henry, plus catching. His truck/hurdle/stiff-arm moves want me to reach for a PS5 controller, assuming I someday score a PS5. But writing about running backs for the Don't Matter crowd makes me fear that I am supposed to sneer like a 1990s kid at a music festival. Ugh. Looks like the bassist for Surge Requiem had bridgework done. Guess they're just another bunch of sellouts to the establishment.

Meanwhile, the current Steelers running back depth chart consists of Benny Snell (essentially a mid-1970s fullback), Anthony McFarland Jr. (no relation to Booger or chance of being more than the third guy in a committee), Kalen Ballage (on the two-franchise-per-season circuit), Jaylen Samuels (essentially a mid-1980s fullback), and Derek Watt (an early 2020s fullback).

Harris could be a cross between Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. That will make him a useful high-impact player for the Steelers, at least on his first contract, and someone who is not necessarily fungible with the incumbents. So I like this pick.

Now, can I still sit at your lunch table tomorrow?

I think Henry looks way bigger than Harris. I think Harris has better side to side agility than Henry. If they get a better Derrick Henry, its a really good pick. 

I am a fan of Harris, mostly because he gave the best response ever to an idiot reporter...

Clint Lamb on Twitter: "This might be the greatest response to a sports question of all time 😂 https://t.co/5fRUf3o3wP" / Twitter

So funny. 

[Shindig]

  On 4/30/2021 at 11:11 AM, boogielicious said:

How did Mac Jones fall to the Patriots?

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Because no one ahead of the Patriots drafted him.  

[it's what their coach would probably say if asked]

  On 4/30/2021 at 2:41 PM, saevel25 said:

Not happy about him going to Chicago. Not a great history of success in recent years. Though, I think they stick with their QB for a while at least. 

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Chicago hasn't had that many positive-memorable quarterbacks since Sid Luckman.