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The Role of "Luck" in Playing Golf and Having Proper Expectations


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  • iacas changed the title to The Role of "Luck" in Playing Golf and Having Proper Expectations
  On 10/29/2021 at 4:49 PM, iacas said:

Call a 550-yard par five a "birdie hole," get into a little trouble off the tee and proceed to employ a strategy that would result in a higher chance of birdie but which also results in a significantly higher score on average… and then they make a 7. (Basically, because they think of the hole as a "birdie hole" they are too aggressive in getting out of trouble and make a mess of the hole, when they probably could have made a par pretty easily.)

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I fall for this one all the time. There is a 505-yard par-5 at my home course, but usually middle tees are setup 450-475 yards. In my opinion, it is easiest hole on the course, so I walk up to the tee expecting par or better. A well struck drive, regardless of dispersion, always leaves less than 200 yards to the green, and when I find myself in a difficult spot for my 2nd shot, without fail I attempt a riskier approach to get on/near the green to attempt to salvage an "easy" hole, rather than play a smart recovery shot that advances the ball as far as possible while avoiding greater harm. I've probably birdie this hole more than any other hole on the course, but I also have my share of stupid double-bogey or worse scores too.

I think there is a lesson in this for me.

-Peter

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Managing expectations is such a big one.

When I played the most golf of my life I was a better player than I am currently, and I could hit shots then that I can't now. Getting heavily back into golf again after college I was trying to hit the same shots, or expecting the same results from easier shots, and playing absolutely awful compared to how well I was still hitting the ball. I even had an entire club (looking at you, 3-iron) that was unreliable enough I just stopped hitting it altogether.


I was playing as though my Shot Zones hadn't changed, when in reality they were quite different. Once I took the time to actually set and maintain realistic expectations, my scores immediately dropped by 5 shots because I was no longer playing "stupid" golf.

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  On 10/29/2021 at 4:49 PM, iacas said:

How you FEEL about your shots affects how you play future shots.

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But isn't this the essence of golf or the "zen of golf" to be able to inhibit that "FEEL"? To be able to accept and forget the past, and evaluate the current shot to determine the highest probability of success is a key to my improvement.


(edited)

This is such a solid OP. 

  On 11/6/2021 at 7:47 AM, KMP said:

But isn't this the essence of golf or the "zen of golf" to be able to inhibit that "FEEL"? To be able to accept and forget the past, and evaluate the current shot to determine the highest probability of success is a key to my improvement.

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Speaking for myself here but knowing my shot zones has helped me from living and dying with each shot. I also realized I was a bit cherry picky about the shots that populate my shot zones. For example, it took me a while to accept that my driver shot zone was 3 fairways wide. I would get on a hot run (in the shot zone) and think it tightened up for a couple of rounds but I don't fall for it anymore and don't find myself sulking for too long for 2-3 OBs (my home course has 14 holes with OB) that 'ruined' the round. 

Accepting the fact that I get out of sequence few times a round and pump out the ball off the planet (part of work on myself), keeps me from psychologically throwing away unnecessary shots. 

Edited by GolfLug
Typo

Vishal S.

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That was quite the read.

After he won The Masters, Zach Johnson himself said that nobody would ever win The Masters that way again. He said it was a perfect storm of conditions and others making critical mistakes at the right time for him to win using the strategy he used. He himself said that strategy of never going for a par 5 in 2 would be terribly flawed and would likely never work again. 

So, I think even Zach Johnson would pretty much agree with you. 

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A mix I am forever tinkering with. 

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  • Administrator
  On 11/6/2021 at 11:57 PM, ChetlovesMer said:

That was quite the read.

After he won The Masters, Zach Johnson himself said that nobody would ever win The Masters that way again. He said it was a perfect storm of conditions and others making critical mistakes at the right time for him to win using the strategy he used. He himself said that strategy of never going for a par 5 in 2 would be terribly flawed and would likely never work again. 

So, I think even Zach Johnson would pretty much agree with you. 

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Do you have links to these types of quotes? They'd be pretty helpful in the other conversation… 😉

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  On 11/7/2021 at 12:11 AM, iacas said:

Do you have links to these types of quotes? They'd be pretty helpful in the other conversation… 😉

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He talked about it in a Golf or Golf Digest article I read. He also said pretty much the same thing when I saw him in person at an event at what used to be my home course. I'll see what I can find. 

My bag is an ever-changing combination of clubs. 

A mix I am forever tinkering with. 

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  • Administrator
  On 11/8/2021 at 2:46 PM, ChetlovesMer said:

He talked about it in a Golf or Golf Digest article I read. He also said pretty much the same thing when I saw him in person at an event at what used to be my home course. I'll see what I can find. 

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Thank you. I'd appreciate it.

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  • 1 year later...

It's always funny to me how people remember what they want to remember. 
Everyone remembers that Zach Johnson didn't go for any of the par-5's in two.
But few remember:

The final round of the 2007 Masters Zach Johnson went 1 under and won the tournament. It was his FIRST time EVER playing a Masters round under par in 10 tries. 

To me that's a far more amazing stat. 

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I think the luckiest thing was the weather, and it flattened the curve a bit for him to succeed with the game plan he had. Outside of that, having an amazing wedge game, to go that under par on Par-5's is more about his skill that day than luck. 

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Note: This thread is 752 days old. We appreciate that you found this thread instead of starting a new one, but if you plan to post here please make sure it's still relevant. If not, please start a new topic. Thank you!

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