NCAA Football 2023

[vasaribm]

15 hours ago, saevel25 said:

You conveniently cut off the remainer of the statement... 

Ok?  I left the link and didn't copy the entire letter.  I was simply replying to Erik that it appears the Big 10 didn't initiate the investigation.  The remainder of that statement continues to support that.

[saevel25]

Sources: NCAA's evidence vs. Michigan included booster involvement in scouting scheme, attempted destruction of evidence

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The revelations altered Michigan’s and Jim Harbaugh’s legal approach. Both the school and Harbaugh dropped an attempt to secure a temporary...

Now it makes sense that UM has suddenly dropped into line with the B1G and the NCAA. First with UM not getting a temporary restraining order on the suspension of Harbaugh. 

It looks like UM is going to be in damage control mode now to minimize the penalties that the NCAA may impose on them. 

[StuM]

20 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Sources: NCAA's evidence vs. Michigan included booster involvement in scouting scheme, attempted destruction of evidence

---

The revelations altered Michigan’s and Jim Harbaugh’s legal approach. Both the school and Harbaugh dropped an attempt to secure a temporary...

Now it makes sense that UM has suddenly dropped into line with the B1G and the NCAA. First with UM not getting a temporary restraining order on the suspension of Harbaugh. 

It looks like UM is going to be in damage control mode now to minimize the penalties that the NCAA may impose on them. 

Destruction of Evidence.....not a good thing for UM.  I do not know the details but in my experience once an organization is made aware of an investigation they issue a directive to "Preserve Evidence".  Now the conspiracy theories may begin.  If he deleted information related to this what other violations did he destroy evidence of?  

I have been open that I am an OSU fan but I really do not want to see UM taken down like this.  I want OSU to beat a solid UM Team next week and not win just because UM is "Distracted".  This only hurts the players who have a legitimate chance at a CFP Championship.

[saevel25]

9 minutes ago, StuM said:

I have been open that I am an OSU fan but I really do not want to see UM taken down like this.  I want OSU to beat a solid UM Team next week and not win just because UM is "Distracted".  This only hurts the players who have a legitimate chance at a CFP Championship.

[StuM]

I’m rooting for Florida State the next 2 weeks to have very solid wins.   If they win out but by slim margin I’m afraid the selection committee may drop them out of the CFP, even if undefeated, since the lost their starting QB.

It is not that I am a huge Florida St fan but if they win out I feel The players deserve the chance to play for the title despite the single injury to a player. And we have seen a 3rd string QB win a championship before.

[klineka]

1 hour ago, StuM said:

It is not that I am a huge Florida St fan but if they win out I feel The players deserve the chance to play for the title despite the single injury to a player. And we have seen a 3rd string QB win a championship before.

I think the one thing that might hurt Florida St even if they win out is their strength of schedule.

Right now they're 66th behind Texas (3), Alabama, (23), Ohio St (51), Georgia, (53), Michigan (63), and Oregon (64).

If Alabama were to beat Georgia in the SEC championship that would be worst case for Florida State as I think both 'Bama and Georgia would be in, along with the winner of OSU/Michigan, and winner of Washington/Oregon. 

Bama and Georgia would both have better resumes even with them each having a loss. I don't think the loser of OSU/Michigan would be in over Florida State, but the winner of Washington/Oregon would have a better resume as well. 

If Georgia beats 'Bama then I think the 4 playoff teams will be Georgia, winner of OSU/Michigan, winner of Washington/Oregon, and Florida State (assuming they win out).

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, StuM said:

I’m rooting for Florida State the next 2 weeks to have very solid wins.   If they win out but by slim margin I’m afraid the selection committee may drop them out of the CFP, even if undefeated, since the lost their starting QB.

With the way Oregon is looked favorably upon, the Pac-12 champ is in. Washington or Oregon. 

I think the Big12 will be left out. Texas getting demolished by a mediocre OU team is weighting them down even with a win over an Alabama team that didn't find their footing until the past few weeks. 

If FSU wins out, I think they are on. 

Oregon or Washington
OSU or UM
Alabama or Georgia
FSU

Out of those 7 teams, OSU, UM, and Georgia will have a claim that they would be deserving of a spot over a 1-loss conference champ from the Big12 or ACC. 

 

[klineka]

8 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

With the way Oregon is looked favorably upon, the Pac-12 champ is in. Washington or Oregon. 

I think the Big12 will be left out. Texas getting demolished by a mediocre OU team is weighting them down even with a win over an Alabama team that didn't find their footing until the past few weeks. 

If FSU wins out, I think they are on. 

Oregon or Washington
OSU or UM
Alabama or Georgia
FSU

Out of those 7 teams, OSU, UM, and Georgia will have a claim that they would be deserving of a spot over a 1-loss conference champ from the Big12 or ACC. 

 

I think there's a decent case for a 1 loss non-conference champ Georgia over an undefeated conference champ Florida State especially if Georgia loses in the last minute or something to 'Bama.

Georgia will have beaten 4 top 25 teams by an average winning margin of 28.5 points in those games.

Florida State will have 3 top 25 wins including one of which is now barely above .500 (Duke)

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, klineka said:

I think there's a decent case for a 1 loss non-conference champ Georgia over an undefeated conference champ Florida State especially if Georgia loses in the last minute or something to 'Bama.

Georgia will have beaten 4 top 25 teams by an average winning margin of 28.5 points in those games.

Florida State will have 3 top 25 wins including one of which is now barely above .500 (Duke)

Don't use AP top 25, that is a blah stat. I think Georgia is the better team, but FSU would be an undefeated conference champ that is a top 5 team at that point. It would have 4 top 30 wins (by a metric that actually quantifies a teams performance). Georgia would be 4-0. Louisville would give FSU another top 20 win. Georgia would have another top 20 win and a top 10 win if they beat Alabama. So, it's really only 1 team off in terms of wins. Not as glaring. 

[StuM]

I agree with both @klinekaand @saevel25 that both Alabama and Georgia could be in the playoffs if Bama wins a close game.  If Georgia wins, Bama is out.  Personally, I just do not like Alabama and do not want them in.  That is another part of my rooting for both Florida State and Georgia to win out.

 

 

 

[saevel25]

I like the College Football Nerds. They do good analysis. 

An interesting take on UM and how their passing game might be adversely effected by not knowing as much of what the other team is going to do. 

 

[saevel25]

I think it will be a close game, and a low scoring game.

I am going with OSU. In their games against top level defenses, they have gotten to the redzone 4 times. About 2x the amount the other teams usually allow. When UM faced PSU, the only elite defense they played all year. They got into the redzone two times, which is about PSU average. I think OSU will have twice as many scoring opportunities as UM. I'll put it this way, UM had 1 red zone attempt last year against OSU. They won 43-23 because of explosive plays. There were signs all last year about that being a big hole in their defense. OSU ranked 48th in 20+, and 115th in 40+ yard plays given up last year. OSU ranks 3rd and 1st this year. 

I am predicting THE GAME to be 23 to 16.

[ChetlovesMer]

20 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I think it will be a close game, and a low scoring game.

I am going with OSU. In their games against top level defenses, they have gotten to the redzone 4 times. About 2x the amount the other teams usually allow. When UM faced PSU, the only elite defense they played all year. They got into the redzone two times, which is about PSU average. I think OSU will have twice as many scoring opportunities as UM. I'll put it this way, UM had 1 red zone attempt last year against OSU. They won 43-23 because of explosive plays. There were signs all last year about that being a big hole in their defense. OSU ranked 48th in 20+, and 115th in 40+ yard plays given up last year. OSU ranks 3rd and 1st this year. 

I am predicting THE GAME to be 23 to 16.

Interesting take. 

Do you think there's anything to the UM vs The World thing? That somehow UM feels like they are being picked on and singled out? That will somehow unify them and get them to play their very best game of the season? 

[klineka]

9 minutes ago, ChetlovesMer said:

That will somehow unify them and get them to play their very best game of the season? 

I feel like the rivalry and the game is big enough already that both teams should already be unified and ready to play their very best game of the season regardless of what is happening off the field.

[ChetlovesMer]

2 minutes ago, klineka said:

I feel like the rivalry and the game is big enough already that both teams should already be unified and ready to play their very best game of the season regardless of what is happening off the field.

You would think so. 

[saevel25]

20 minutes ago, ChetlovesMer said:

Do you think there's anything to the UM vs The World thing? That somehow UM feels like they are being picked on and singled out? That will somehow unify them and get them to play their very best game of the season? 

Sure, there could be that. Teams rally towards some sort of thing all the time. They were a close team anyways. 

It doesn't help them if their offense and defense was predicated on the coach always getting them into the perfect play call. 

As soon as Stallions was fired, and the NCAA and B1G have their eyes on UM, they have given up nearly as many TDs in the past two games as all other games combined!

You assume they didn't have the signals for East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green... They average 30-35 points per game. They hit Big 10 schedule and average 56 points per game. Stallions gets fired, investigations begin, and they average 27.5 points per game.

[StuM]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

You assume they didn't have the signals for East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green... They average 30-35 points per game. They hit Big 10 schedule and average 56 points per game. Stallions gets fired, investigations begin, and they average 27.5 points per game.

Ummmmmm, UM's highest scoring games were against Minnesota & Indiana and they only scored 52 points in those game, Average of 56??? I think it is closer to 46 for the first 5 Big10 games (Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana & Mich. State).  Of those 5 games I think Rutgers is the best team and UM only scored 31 against them.  

I think a lot of the higher score before Stallions was fired was they were playing weak teams.  They scored 41 against Purdue "After Stallions" but Purdue is not that good.  Penn State & Maryland were stronger teams then the earlier games.  Their higher scoring early on may be more a function of who they played and not so much stealing signs.

One thing I noticed, and @saevel25hit on it with the Football Nerds, is that early in the Penn State game UM switched from primarily pass to a primarily run game.  Their take is the change had to do with sign stealing, but it could also be that Penn State had a good defense and took the passing game away early on.

[saevel25]

12 minutes ago, StuM said:

heir take is the change had to do with sign stealing, but it could also be that Penn State had a good defense and took the passing game away early on.

PSU gives up in passing what teams average, so their passing D is not that elite. You can expect about -17% in total passing yard reduction (that could be pace of play dependent). PSU is up there in TOP. On yards per attempt passing, they allow teams to average what they usually average. 

Compared to OSU, who makes teams average 33% less. Which is ranked 1st in the nation. 

So, in reality UM should have been able to pass close to 9.5 yards per attempt and get about 228 yards in the air. UM decided to just run the ball. PSU was able to hold UM to 21% under their passing average. 

The past 3 games, UM has had their worst passing performance in terms of passer rating. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by saevel25