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I think from the OP all players felt it was in the PA or the opponents would not have pushed for S&D. The question I am struggling with is making a "Reasonable Judgement" on where the ball crossed into the PA to identify where to drop. In the OP photo the red line (possible path 1) crosses into the PA just a little past the 1st bunker (Not where the red line ends, more like half-way along the red line) and the white line (possible path 2) enters the PA past the 2nd bunker. It's hard to tell from the diagram but is the difference between the 2 points 30-40-50 yards? The greater the distance between the two potential areas the less likely to make a "Reasonable Judgement" of where it entered and where to drop. I understand that without TV Cameras and Forecaddies none of know exactly where our ball may have crossed, we pick a tree, bush or other landmark and use that, but at what point does it become impossible to make a "Reasonable Judgement". Also, I understand the problem with the word "Reasonable" but that is what I see in Rule 1.3 per below.
Adding on, even in the OP they said it would be guess where it went out.
I don't think you're going against the consensus, really, I'd certainly agree that the ball must be Known or Virtually Certain to be in the Penalty Area. As I read the original post, I believe that @xcelrr8 WAS virtually certain that the ball was in the PA, and was asking about what his relief options were.
We had a somewhat similar situation happen at our invitational tournament a couple of years ago. The format is one qualifying round to determine the top 32 guys and then 5 rounds of match play to get to a champion. In one of the championship flight matches, a guy hit his ball into the woods and when it was suggested he re-tee a provisional, he was very confused. He had no idea that if he lost his ball he could not just drop where it went into the woods. He actually thought the playing competitors were trying to cheat him by not letting him drop where the ball went into the woods, and it took quite a bit of convincing to play his third with a stroke and distance penalty.
The next year, I played in the same 4-some with him at a similar format tournament at his home course, and it helped me understand his confusion . His course has a local rule to play all wooded areas as a lateral hazard. I got paired with him in the match play, and found out that he had only been golfing 6-8 years and had a very quick rise from beginner to low single digit handicap - and 95%+ of his career rounds were at his home course. He just didn't ever learn the rules of golf and assumed that his course's local rules were the rules of golf.