2012 US Open at Olympic Club Discussion Thread

[Harmonious]

Much will depend on how much water the USGA people decided to put on the greens.  If they keep it watered like Saturday, then 3-4 under is doable.  If they decide to make the greens hard, then even par would be a good score. It's all about how close they can hit their approaches.  If everything bounces through the green to the back fringes, then there won't be many birdies.

[Kapanda]

Originally Posted by Harmonious

Much will depend on how much water the USGA people decided to put on the greens.  If they keep it watered like Saturday, then 3-4 under is doable.  If they decide to make the greens hard, then even par would be a good score. It's all about how close they can hit their approaches.  If everything bounces through the green to the back fringes, then there won't be many birdies.

Wondering if you have Tiger's situation in mind in particular...

Because regardless of USGA's ground work, Tiger will need a miracle regardless. He will have to play lights out, and the leaders will have to play not so well.

[Harmonious]

Originally Posted by Kapanda

Wondering if you have Tiger's situation in mind in particular...

Because regardless of USGA's ground work, Tiger will need a miracle regardless. He will have to play lights out, and the leaders will have to play not so well.

I really don't have Woods' situation in mind.  In my opinion, he will again be a non-factor.  His wins in majors came when he was a much different player than he is today, and came when he was in the lead at 54 holes.  He didn't win when he had to come from behind.

I look for MacDowell to win.

[mtsalmela80]

Originally Posted by crayputter

Just sharing my thoughts....

What if Tiger played 1-6 at even par, and maybe squeeze a birdie on 7, 8 possibly, 15,16,17...and stayed away from bogeys, try to post an E in the clubhouse....there is always the possibility of a playoff....?

Just sayin....

cheers

Ray

What if Phil shot 50 to win the tournament? What if Tiger tripled the first three holes, threw his bag in the water and stormed off the course never to play again?

What if is a broad statement!

[mvmac]

The tees on 16 will be moved up 100 yards today.  This par 5 has been playing at 670 yards all week

Also if anyone is interested in the 3rd Round Stats

[Zwick]

Originally Posted by mtsalmela80

What if Phil shot 50 to win the tournament? What if Tiger tripled the first three holes, threw his bag in the water and stormed off the course never to play again?

What if is a broad statement!

There is no water after the third hole!!!

[Wansteadimp]

Originally Posted by Zwick

There is no water after the third hole!!!

Lake Merced, apparently the ball rolls towards it.

[Wansteadimp]

I know its the bottom end of the field, but there is only Davis Love under par at the moment with 30 players out there

[Chilli Dipper]

Originally Posted by zipazoid

It's certainly unlikely Woods shoots 65, for sure, but it's not impossible.

My bet is that's the number Tiger has in mind today - 65. He has to do it if he wants to win.

I think one under 279 is the winning score, and I've been trying to figure out who's going to do it. So here's my pick:

The 54-hole leader has never won at Olympic. The two guys at -1 are former Open winners - McDowell & Furyk. Both would be 'worthy' champs, but again, that doesn't seem to happen at Olympic.

So you got someone like Westwood, but until he shows me he can make a putt on a Sunday when it counts I can't pick him. Besides, it has to be someone more obscure. Someone who nobody had on their radar going into the tournament. Someone who can handle the tough par putts down the stretch.

Someone like Fredrik Jacobson.

Tiger's biggest obstacle isn't the number of strokes he will have to make up, but the number of golfers between him and the leaders. It wouldn't surprise me if Tiger shot five strokes or better than either Furyk or McDowell today, but there are 16 names above his on the leaderboard right now, and he has to beat all of them to win his 15th major. I would like his chances better if he was tied for 4th, instead of 14th.

Not only has the 54-hole leader never won the Open at Olympic, but each of those four 54-hole leads were held by previous Open champions. The winner wouldn't have to be obscure to continue the prevailing trend, though; for both Casper and Janzen, Olympic was were their second Open title.

My prediction? There won't be a winner until Monday. Furyk and McDowell both shoot 71, Westwood cards a 68, and Webb Simpson shoots 67. Four golfers at even par set up the first four-way playoff in USGA history.

[zipazoid]

Originally Posted by Chilli Dipper

Tiger's biggest obstacle isn't the number of strokes he will have to make up, but the number of golfers between him and the leaders.

13, to be exact. He's T14. Not that many players, to be honest. Let's say he posts two early birdies. Now he's only 3 back with only 3 guy ahead of him. It can be done - not saying he will do it, but it is doable.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by zipazoid

Well, Tiger's not out of it. He's 5 back with 13 players in front of him. It's doable. If he does just what you posted, that's a 65 & he posts one under. I think that wins.

It's obviously a big "if", and while not impossible, I think anybody who goes out there attempting to shoot a 65 is going to find themselves in a lot of trouble off the tee and around the greens.  IMO the only way to shoot a 65 is to get incredibly hot with the putter and make a lot of 15-25ft putts (like Jacobsen yesterday).  If I had to guess, I'm predicting Tiger is aiming more along the lines of a 67-68.

[Wansteadimp]

I dont think it will play any where near as "easy" as yesterday, +2 could easily win today.

[Zwick]

The par4 first hole plays longer than the par5 16th today, according to GolfChannel. We will porbably see some late charges with eagle opportunities on 16 and 17 and the short 18th.

The best score so far is even through 12 holes. Everything at par or better today could be enough for the guys at +2 or lower. Woods could be in it with a 68 if Furyk/GMac get problems early.

[iacas]

Let's see.  Woods shoots 65, the lowest round of the tournament (and 4 strokes better than his "in complete control of his game" 69 of Thursday).  And every one of the 13 players ahead of him bumbles along over par.

That doesn't add up. The guys at E can shoot an even par round. The guys at +1 can shoot 69. The guys at +2 can shoot 68. The guys at +3 can shoot 67. Not [b]every one[/b] of the players ahead of him would need to shoot over par. [quote name="zipazoid" url="/t/58696/2012-us-open-at-olympic-club-discussion-thread/558#post_726486"] My bet is that's the number Tiger has in mind today - 65. He has to do it if he wants to win.[/quote] I think it's the number he has in his mind too. I don't think it's out there.

[zipazoid]

Originally Posted by iacas

I think it's the number he has in his mind too. I don't think it's out there.

I don't think so either. Hasn't been shot yet this week. He'll need a perfect round with some breaks going his way, like a hole-out or something.

[Zeph]

The birdies are out there if they can avoid mistakes and bogies. Which means they have to hit fairways and greens. If Tiger hits it like he did the first two rounds, it's not impossible, but with yesterday's mistakes, I don't think so.

[iacas]

Early scores don't look good. The weather doesn't look great. Winning score could be +2. If it's wet and misty like this, and cool, staying out of the rough will be even more important since it'll get thick and heavy. Tiger may have caught a break in that. Or it may be bad for him, too. Who knows? I'm surprised nobody's mentioned how "Olympic Club" and "Olympia Fields" have the same root, and so obviously Furyk will win. (I'm not saying that he will, I'm surprised nobody's said that.) Also, I'm going to make this LIVE very soon (by the time you read this): http://thesandtrap.com/b/pga/2012_us_open_final_round_chat

[xxsoultonesxx]

Big fan of Furyk, but if he goes out and shoots even or one or two over to win it, I think that is the most boring scenario out there.

Unless he starts slamming 5-Hour energy and pumping em 350...then it would be interesting.