Unplayable Lie- How would you play this one?

[MEfree]

You are playing in an individual stroke play tournament and hit your tee shot towards a clump of bushes/small dense trees near the OB line. You hit a provisional in the middle of the fairway but end up finding your original tee shot in bounds but completely unplayable. Going straight back to a spot where you will have a clean swing puts you OB. Within two club lengths of where your original ball lies, there is a spot where you can make a swing where you would be comfortably able to advance the ball 100+ yards and onto the fairway. The problem is that the ground is very uneven and you are worried that your drop will roll into another unplayable lie. (Assume the odds after dropping are 20% of having a clean swing, 30% chance of having a restricted or opposite side swing and 50% chance of having no swing/reasonable shot). What do you do? Would your answer change if it was a casual round with no bets? What about a round with friends with a small wager?

[Golfingdad]

You are playing in an individual stroke play tournament and hit your tee shot towards a clump of bushes/small dense trees near the OB line. You hit a provisional in the middle of the fairway but end up finding your original tee shot in bounds but completely unplayable. Going straight back to a spot where you will have a clean swing puts you OB.

Within two club lengths of where your original ball lies, there is a spot where you can make a swing where you would be comfortably able to advance the ball 100+ yards and onto the fairway. The problem is that the ground is very uneven and you are worried that your drop will roll into another unplayable lie. (Assume the odds after dropping are 20% of having a clean swing, 30% chance of having a restricted or opposite side swing and 50% chance of having no swing/reasonable shot).

What do you do?

I'd go back and re-tee.

Would your answer change if it was a casual round with no bets?

Yes.  I would just play my provisional.

What about a round with friends with a small wager?

Same as immediately above.  My friends would allow (probably insist, actually) that I just play the provisional.

[Fourputt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MEfree

You are playing in an individual stroke play tournament and hit your tee shot towards a clump of bushes/small dense trees near the OB line. You hit a provisional in the middle of the fairway but end up finding your original tee shot in bounds but completely unplayable. Going straight back to a spot where you will have a clean swing puts you OB.

Within two club lengths of where your original ball lies, there is a spot where you can make a swing where you would be comfortably able to advance the ball 100+ yards and onto the fairway. The problem is that the ground is very uneven and you are worried that your drop will roll into another unplayable lie. (Assume the odds after dropping are 20% of having a clean swing, 30% chance of having a restricted or opposite side swing and 50% chance of having no swing/reasonable shot).

What do you do?

I'd go back and re-tee.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MEfree

Would your answer change if it was a casual round with no bets?

Yes.  I would just play my provisional.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MEfree

What about a round with friends with a small wager?

Same as immediately above.  My friends would allow (probably insist, actually) that I just play the provisional.

This sounds reasonable.  In a competition, I might take the chance on the drop, depending on my standing in the tournament at the time.  In a casual round, if I took the drop and it was again unplayable, I'd be at my ESC for handicap so, at that point the actual score becomes irrelevant.  Even with the the provisional ball the odds are good that I'd hit the 7 that I'm allowed for posting.

[saevel25]

Lets make it more specific. Let's say you have a 400 yard par 4. You have a 50% chance of hitting the fairway with a 250 yard drive. 50% chance of hitting the rough with a 250 yard drive. Lets say the OB shot is a once every few rounds type of situation, very low percentage.

30% back facing shot + 1 penalty

20% advance 100 yards + 1 penalty

15% chance of back facing shot + 2 penalty

10% chance of advancing 100 yards + 2 penalty.

For me, it isn't hard to hit a back facing shot at least 30-40 yards. I've had my ball be a foot in the trees and I've stood to the left of the ball and advanced it a good 40 yards before. That was with being careful of some limbs that my club could hit in the upswing. If you just can't stand right handed, you can hit a pretty solid shot backhanded.

If you go back and rehit you basically have a -3 strokes gained (-1 for the first, -1 for the penalty, -1 for the rehit) + what ever distance you hit the ball.

For a guy who hits it 250 yards that is gaining  about 0.9 strokes. So you are looking at about a -2.1 strokes gained.

Even if you advance the ball 40 yards with a backward facing shot, that is gaining 0.67 yards, as long as you don't need another recovery shot. I'm assuming you would be able to advance it to a spot you'd have a look at the green. So you have 30% chance of having a -1.33 strokes gained.

Comparing re-dropping to re-teeing

50% chance of gaining a stroke or more

25% chance of breaking even

25% chance of losing a stroke or more

Not sure, I might take those odds, especially if I am trailing in a tournament.

Hopefully I applied the strokes gained correctly. I think I did

[Jeremie Boop]

I'd go back and re-tee.

Yes.  I would just play my provisional.

Same as immediately above.  My friends would allow (probably insist, actually) that I just play the provisional.

Just out of curiosity, if you already have a provisional in the fairway why would you go all the way back and re-tee?

[bradsul]

If it's a competitive round I would play the provisional.  There is too much uncertainty for me with not only the drop but the following recovery shot.

If it's a casual round I would take the drop every time.  That's how you find out if you can make those shots and get practice at them.

[Club Rat]

I would take my chances with a drop.

Quoted " Would your answer change if it was a casual round with no bets? What about a round with friends with a small wager?"

It's a "rub of the green" situation regardless of the circumstances which are being played, IE: tournament, casual round or whatever wager.

You make the decision and play on. Second guessing always tends to what ifs scenarios.

Club Rat

[Fourputt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

I'd go back and re-tee.

Yes.  I would just play my provisional.

Same as immediately above.  My friends would allow (probably insist, actually) that I just play the provisional.

Just out of curiosity, if you already have a provisional in the fairway why would you go all the way back and re-tee?

By the rules if you find the original ball in bounds within the 5 minute search, the provisional ball is abandoned.

[Jeremie Boop]

By the rules if you find the original ball in bounds within the 5 minute search, the provisional ball is abandoned.

I see, seems silly to have abandon the shot that's already there to go back and re-tee again, but if that's the way the rules say it goes then so be it.

[saevel25]

Just out of curiosity, if you already have a provisional in the fairway why would you go all the way back and re-tee?

Because the provisional was for the scenario for the OB.

Because the ball was found, and unplayable, the rule states you can do the drop options or go back to the previous spot and re-hit. There is no provisional allowed for unplayable lie.

[Golfingdad]

If it's a competitive round I would play the provisional.

Then you would be incurring additional penalties for playing the wrong ball.

I see, seems silly to have abandon the shot that's already there to go back and re-tee again, but if that's the way the rules say it goes then so be it.

It does seem silly, which is why I would just play the provisional in anything other than a serious competition.

It actually isn't silly at all though.  I believe the same principle applies here as to why you can't play a provisional when you think you're ball might be unplayable in a water hazard.  You're not allowed to have two balls in play at one time.  It's a huge advantage to be, in effect, playing a miniature scramble for part of one hole and get to choose between the better of two balls that are not OB nor lost.

Another example of knowing the rules and using them to your advantage:  I know approximately where my first ball is (somewhere in the bushes over there) and I know exactly where my provisional is (perfect spot) so I can make a judgment call as to how likely my ball is to be found in-bounds and playable, and if I determine it's unlikely, then I just won't bother to look for it AT ALL.  In which case, I can play the provisional.

I think you could also just do a cursory search and only look at areas where if you were to find it then you'd be able to play it.  I think, but I'm definitely not sure how close to a grey area you might be here.  You know?  Just walk over there and look in the open areas, but not directly under the bush from which you know you can't play anyway.

[Fourputt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fourputt

By the rules if you find the original ball in bounds within the 5 minute search, the provisional ball is abandoned.

I see, seems silly to have abandon the shot that's already there to go back and re-tee again, but if that's the way the rules say it goes then so be it.

The reason for the rule being that way is that the player can only be allowed options on how to proceed, not an option or choice between two balls in play.  There can only be one ball in play, and if found in bounds, that ball is always the original ball and the procedure for continuing play must begin from there.

[bradsul]

Then you would be incurring additional penalties for playing the wrong ball.

Quite so.  I'm clearly lucky this hasn't come up for me before. Fortunately (I guess) I seem incapable of keeping my ball in-bounds in those situations.

If it does happen I'll definitely take the drop then regardless of the playing scenario.  I hate going back to the tee since I walk.

[MEfree]

Lets make it more specific. Let's say you have a 400 yard par 4. You have a 50% chance of hitting the fairway with a 250 yard drive. 50% chance of hitting the rough with a 250 yard drive. Lets say the OB shot is a once every few rounds type of situation, very low percentage.  30% back facing shot + 1 penalty 20% advance 100 yards + 1 penalty 15% chance of back facing shot + 2 penalty 10% chance of advancing 100 yards + 2 penalty.  For me, it isn't hard to hit a back facing shot at least 30-40 yards. I've had my ball be a foot in the trees and I've stood to the left of the ball and advanced it a good 40 yards before. That was with being careful of some limbs that my club could hit in the upswing. If you just can't stand right handed, you can hit a pretty solid shot backhanded.  If you go back and rehit you basically have a -3 strokes gained (-1 for the first, -1 for the penalty, -1 for the rehit) + what ever distance you hit the ball.  For a guy who hits it 250 yards that is gaining  about 0.9 strokes. So you are looking at about a -2.1 strokes gained.  Even if you advance the ball 40 yards with a backward facing shot, that is gaining 0.67 yards, as long as you don't need another recovery shot. I'm assuming you would be able to advance it to a spot you'd have a look at the green. So you have 30% chance of having a -1.33 strokes gained.  Comparing re-dropping to re-teeing 50% chance of gaining a stroke or more 25% chance of breaking even 25% chance of losing a stroke or more Not sure, I might take those odds, especially if I am trailing in a tournament.  Hopefully I applied the strokes gained correctly. I think I did :whistle:

Interesting analysis. It may have been intentional but your original numbers only total 75%. Going the drop route it is possible that you end up with 3 or more penalty strokes and still have an unplayable lie: 30% restricted swing or back/opposite facing shot + 1 penalty 20% advance 100 yards + 1 penalty 15% chance of restricted swing or back/opposite + 2 penalty 10% chance of advancing 100 yards + 2 penalty. 7.5% chance of restricted swing or back/opposite + 3 penalty 5% chance of advancing 100 yards + 3 penalty. 3.75% chance of restricted swing or back/opposite + 4 penalty 2.5% chance of advancing 100 yards + 4 penalty 6.25% chance of incurring 5+ penalty shots before a drop lands in a playable position Taking a drop is like flipping a coin. Even if the coin is a fair one, there is some chance that it comes up heads 5 or more times in a row (and a very small chance it comes up heads 20+ times in a row). Taking a drop is sorta like shorting a stock- in theory there is unlimited down side.

[DrvFrShow]

You are playing in an individual stroke play tournament and hit your tee shot towards a clump of bushes/small dense trees near the OB line. You hit a provisional in the middle of the fairway but end up finding your original tee shot in bounds but completely unplayable. Going straight back to a spot where you will have a clean swing puts you OB.

Within two club lengths of where your original ball lies, there is a spot where you can make a swing where you would be comfortably able to advance the ball 100+ yards and onto the fairway. The problem is that the ground is very uneven and you are worried that your drop will roll into another unplayable lie. (Assume the odds after dropping are 20% of having a clean swing, 30% chance of having a restricted or opposite side swing and 50% chance of having no swing/reasonable shot).

What do you do? Would your answer change if it was a casual round with no bets? What about a round with friends with a small wager?

1. Tournament round - go back and re-tee. (if match play concede the hole unless my opponent hit OB)

2. Casual round with no bets - take the unplayable penalty, and given the odds of an unplayable drop, place my ball in the spot two club lengths where I'm able to advance the ball 100+ yds.

3. I don't make $2000/wk.

[saevel25]

Taking a drop is like flipping a coin. Even if the coin is a fair one, there is some chance that it comes up heads 5 or more times in a row (and a very small chance it comes up heads 20+ times in a row). Taking a drop is sorta like shorting a stock- in theory there is unlimited down side.

Technically you could drop forever. I was just making it easier by showing that you have a 75% of actually be near equal to or having a better shot at savings strokes by dropping then re-teeing.

[MEfree]

Technically you could drop forever. I was just making it easier by showing that you have a 75% of actually be near equal to or having a better shot at savings strokes by dropping then re-teeing.

Correct. So if you risked taking the drop, after how many bad drops/rolls would you give up and go back to the tee?

[saevel25]

Correct.

So if you risked taking the drop, after how many bad drops/rolls would you give up and go back to the tee?

You probably wouldn't be able to. As soon as you take that unplayable lie drop, the new lie is your reference point now. You just can't say, "Oh I dropped 3 times, I'm going back to the tee." Once you drop your ball is now in play, even if it goes into an unplayable lie.