Donald Trump for president?

[mchepp]

This article is well done to explain that Trump has no chance. Nate Silver gives him a 2% chance of winning. Not good if you are in the Trump camp.

I for one will enjoy the Trump show, but by Thanksgiving it will most likely be over.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

[rkim291968]

He already beat my expectation lasting this long.  I thought he'd be laughed out of the race as soon as he entered.  I underestimated some Reps anger against established politicians, current immigration policy, etc..

[Golfingdad]

He already beat my expectation lasting this long.  I thought he'd be laughed out of the race as soon as he entered.  I underestimated some Reps anger against established politicians, current immigration policy, etc..

I wouldn't call this "long" ... nothing has really happened yet and not that many people are paying attention.  He'll probably last until there are actually a few primary elections, or until he says 2 or 3 more horrendously bird-brained things ... whichever comes first.

[acetoolguy]

Trump got exactly what he wanted. What other candidate would have garnered 24 pages of comments on a golf site?

[newtogolf]

He already beat my expectation lasting this long.  I thought he'd be laughed out of the race as soon as he entered.  I underestimated some Reps anger against established politicians, current immigration policy, etc..

Trump is anti-PC which to many of us is refreshing.  The problem is he's also ignorant about how to make things work in politics.  As POTUS he just doesn't get to hire a contractor to build a wall along the border of Mexico.  You don't negotiate with the German Chancellor Merkel and suggest she's going through menopause if she isn't cooperative and receptive of his ideas.

Trump is a bull in a china shop who will attract a large group of voters who like his viewpoints and ideas but lack confidence in his ability to be POTUS.  Those voters will look to a qualified GOP candidate that picks up on Trumps lead but with a less antagonistic approach.  Christie could be that guy, so could Paul, I don't think Cruz, Jeb or Rubio have the demeanor to pull it off.  Fiorina is pretty tough and could potentially grab the baton from Trump, plus she'd neutralize the Hillary factor of being the first female POTUS.

At this point I believe the democrats are hurting, Hillary is midst of scandals and doesn't seem well liked even by democrats, Bernie is an admitted socialist and Biden doesn't seem to have his heart in politics since the loss of his son (justifiably so), their best bet would be Obama passing a law to allow him to run for a 3rd term.

[Elmer]

Trump is anti-PC which to many of us is refreshing.  The problem is he's also ignorant about how to make things work in politics.  As POTUS he just doesn't get to hire a contractor to build a wall along the border of Mexico.  You don't negotiate with the German Chancellor Merkel and suggest she's going through menopause if she isn't cooperative and receptive of his ideas.

Trump is a bull in a china shop who will attract a large group of voters who like his viewpoints and ideas but lack confidence in his ability to be POTUS.  Those voters will look to a qualified GOP candidate that picks up on Trumps lead but with a less antagonistic approach.  Christie could be that guy, so could Paul, I don't think Cruz, Jeb or Rubio have the demeanor to pull it off.  Fiorina is pretty tough and could potentially grab the baton from Trump, plus she'd neutralize the Hillary factor of being the first female POTUS.

At this point I believe the democrats are hurting, Hillary is midst of scandals and doesn't seem well liked even by democrats, Bernie is an admitted socialist and Biden doesn't seem to have his heart in politics since the loss of his son (justifiably so), their best bet would be Obama passing a law to allow him to run for a 3rd term.

you do know that Obama does not pass laws? He signs them!

The house and senate pass the bills that Obama signs, turning them into law.

Jeb has his own issues with Email and a family legacy of Iraq

Fiorina wont be able to get around the outsourcing problem, but she could be a VP candidate to get the women vote.

The ticket will probably be Cruz/ Fiorina to get the latino/women vote, because without it the Republicans can not win!

Trump will run as a 3rd party until he realizes he has no chance of winning, in which case he will bow out to concentrate on a "splendid endeavour" which will be a new golf course.

I seriously can not picture Trump giving a Concession speech!

[newtogolf]

you do know that Obama does not pass laws? He signs them!

The house and senate pass the bills that Obama signs, turning them into law.

Jeb has his own issues with Email and a family legacy of Iraq

Fiorina wont be able to get around the outsourcing problem, but she could be a VP candidate to get the women vote.

The ticket will probably be Cruz/ Fiorina to get the latino/women vote, because without it the Republicans can not win!

Trump will run as a 3rd party until he realizes he has no chance of winning, in which case he will bow out to concentrate on a "splendid endeavour" which will be a new golf course.

I seriously can not picture Trump giving a Concession speech!

Sorry I wasn't specific, you're right, Obama does not pass laws he issues executive orders.

[rkim291968]

At this point I believe the democrats are hurting, Hillary is midst of scandals and doesn't seem well liked even by democrats, Bernie is an admitted socialist and Biden doesn't seem to have his heart in politics since the loss of his son (justifiably so), their best bet would be Obama passing a law to allow him to run for a 3rd term.

There are enough Hillary haters, myself included, for GOP to give it a run.   Trump has already blew his chance (if he ever get nominated) against any candidate DEM puts up b/c of his remarks on Hispanic, Women, and Black (will surface soon enough).   He even pissed off much of REPs.

[flopster]

Trump is anti-PC which to many of us is refreshing.  The problem is he's also ignorant about how to make things work in politics.  As POTUS he just doesn't get to hire a contractor to build a wall along the border of Mexico.  You don't negotiate with the German Chancellor Merkel and suggest she's going through menopause if she isn't cooperative and receptive of his ideas.

Trump is a bull in a china shop who will attract a large group of voters who like his viewpoints and ideas but lack confidence in his ability to be POTUS.  Those voters will look to a qualified GOP candidate that picks up on Trumps lead but with a less antagonistic approach.  Christie could be that guy, so could Paul, I don't think Cruz, Jeb or Rubio have the demeanor to pull it off.  Fiorina is pretty tough and could potentially grab the baton from Trump, plus she'd neutralize the Hillary factor of being the first female POTUS.

At this point I believe the democrats are hurting, Hillary is midst of scandals and doesn't seem well liked even by democrats, Bernie is an admitted socialist and Biden doesn't seem to have his heart in politics since the loss of his son (justifiably so), their best bet would be Obama passing a law to allow him to run for a 3rd term.

Actually I think Trump is anti-don't disagree with me more than anything else. I just don't understand how he could possibly want the job and not have the final say Donald Trump only sees things one way and that's his way.

[newtogolf]

There are enough Hillary haters, myself included, for GOP to give it a run.   Trump has already blew his chance (if he ever get nominated) against any candidate DEM puts up b/c of his remarks on Hispanic, Women, and Black (will surface soon enough).   He even pissed off much of REPs.

Actually I think Trump is anti-don't disagree with me more than anything else. I just don't understand how he could possibly want the job and not have the final say Donald Trump only sees things one way and that's his way.

I agree with both of you but the polls indicate that he's reached a certain demographic who likes what he's said and done thus far.

[Elmer]

Sorry I wasn't specific, you're right, Obama does not pass laws he issues executive orders.

He signs legislation into law.

But a little OT, but dont pretend that Obama is doing something new or illegal with executive orders

BO has issued 206 EO

GWB 291

BC 364

Reagan 381

nixon 346

Eisenhower 481

Truman 907

FRD 3522

Wilson 1803

TR 1,081

but nobody makes a stink about these guys using them.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/executive_orders.php

to bring this back to topic, you want to see a socialist dictator, elect trump.

He will run everything by executive order just so he can get his way. He said it today "I whine until I get what I want"

he would run the gas companies and airlines and every aspect of America!

because he is a narcissist and succesful and knows better!

[rkim291968]

to bring this back to topic, you want to see a socialist dictator, elect trump.

He will run everything by executive order just so he can get his way. He said it today "I whine until I get what I want"

he would run the gas companies and airlines and every aspect of America!

because he is a narcissist and succesful and knows better!

CNN interviewed "narcissism" experts yesterday.   Their main points were Trump is a narcissist (surprise! ) and some narcissist can be an effective leader.   Can Trump be an effective leader?  Based on how vengeful he is to anyone who criticizes him, how he appears to make all decisions (ignoring his own team's expertise, with very little understanding of issues), I say he would make a terrible dictator.

[acerimusdux]

Hyperbole?

I think the big problem is that we all know Trump is a horrible candidate who would make a horrible Commander in Chief...

Nope, 100% serious. I agree Trump as Commander in Chief might be an embarrassment at times, but I don't think he's do any significant damage. He's an outrageous personality, but on policy, he's probably the most reasonable and moderate of the Republican field. Building a wall on the border for example, may not be that realistic and practical, but I don't see it doing any real harm. If you look at most of the reasons many Republicans don't trust Trump on other issues, such as his past moderate positions on abortion and healthcare, or his past criticism of the Iraq War, or his past statement, in 2004, that "It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans" those are all reasons I would prefer him to any of the other Republicans.  To me, policy is just much more important than the personality stuff.

This article is well done to explain that Trump has no chance. Nate Silver gives him a 2% chance of winning. Not good if you are in the Trump camp.

I for one will enjoy the Trump show, but by Thanksgiving it will most likely be over.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

I agree with most of the analysis, but I think it's also early enough for Trump to change that. With the right campaign, I think he could significantly lower his unfavorables. Problem is, he shows no sign of being willing or able to change how he is presenting himself. One of his top longtime advisors just either resigned or was fired (depending on who you believe) over disagreement on this.

I said above what I thought he needed to do in the debate. He did the opposite. Instead of preparing and showing some policy seriousness, he brags about not preparing for the debate, and doesn't plan on preparing for the next one. Instead of showing a more positive side, he took the debate as an opportunity to pick more fights, and then spent the aftermath engaging in a petty campaign against Megyn Kelly.

I really think if Trump could hire good professional advisers, and take advice, the Republican race would be potentially winnable for him. But right now that ability doesn't seem to be in his DNA. This isn't that important yet in August, but by February he really would need to pivot and broaden his base beyond one subgroup of angry voters focused on one issue.

[rkim291968]

I agree with most of the analysis, but I think it's also early enough for Trump to change that. With the right campaign, I think he could significantly lower his unfavorables. Problem is, he shows no sign of being willing or able to change how he is presenting himself. One of his top longtime advisors just either resigned or was fired (depending on who you believe) over disagreement on this.

I said above what I thought he needed to do in the debate. He did the opposite. Instead of preparing and showing some policy seriousness, he brags about not preparing for the debate, and doesn't plan on preparing for the next one. Instead of showing a more positive side, he took the debate as an opportunity to pick more fights, and then spent the aftermath engaging in a petty campaign against Megyn Kelly.

I really think if Trump could hire good professional advisers, and take advice, the Republican race would be potentially winnable for him. But right now that ability doesn't seem to be in his DNA. This isn't that important yet in August, but by February he really would need to pivot and broaden his base beyond one subgroup of angry voters focused on one issue.

A persons with a narcissist personality disorder cannot even acknowledge he is a narcissist.     NPD is one of the hardest to deal with for the person who has it, and for people around him.  I.e, Trump can't change.   If he tries to, it will go against everything he is built on.  The change can also backfire on those who are supporting him now.

The long time advisor was also on CNN yesterday.    He tried to give sound political advice to Trump post the debate.   E.g, focus on bigger picture instead of Megyn.   What did Trump do?  He spent hours on Megyn who rightfully, smartly took to high road.   That just made Trump look really bad, silly, stupid, ...     Then, he fires his advisor who may have given him right advice.   That's a page out of NPD.

[newtogolf]

A persons with a narcissist personality disorder cannot even acknowledge he is a narcissist.     NPD is one of the hardest to deal with for the person who has it, and for people around him.  I.e, Trump can't change.   If he tries to, it will go against everything he is built on.  The change can also backfire on those who are supporting him now.

The long time advisor was also on CNN yesterday.    He tried to give sound political advice to Trump post the debate.   E.g, focus on bigger picture instead of Megyn.   What did Trump do?  He spent hours on Megyn who rightfully, smartly took to high road.   That just made Trump look really bad, silly, stupid, ...     Then, he fires his advisor who may have given him right advice.   That's a page out of NPD.

I don't agree with how Trump handled it, but he had a valid beef with Megyn.  They were supposed to be in friendly territory and it's reasonable for Trump to expect all would be treated fairly.  Megyn asked questions I want answered but her questions seemed biased against Trump and favored other candidates.  Why not ask Jeb how he expects to get elected when his father and brother had what most perceive to be failed presidencies.  How about asking Rand Paul about his filibuster tactics and how much influence his father will have over his presidency if elected.

The point is Megyn attacked Trump while giving others a pass.  As a moderator in a public debate one has to at least pretend to be unbiased and that's why she's suffered the backlash she did.

[rkim291968]

Originally Posted by newtogolf

I don't agree with how Trump handled it, but he had a valid beef with Megyn.  They were supposed to be in friendly territory and it's reasonable for Trump to expect all would be treated fairly.  Megyn asked questions I want answered but her questions seemed biased against Trump and favored other candidates.  Why not ask Jeb how he expects to get elected when his father and brother had what most perceive to be failed presidencies.  How about asking Rand Paul about his filibuster tactics and how much influence his father will have over his presidency if elected.

The point is Megyn attacked Trump while giving others a pass.  As a moderator in a public debate one has to at least pretend to be unbiased and that's why she's suffered the backlash she did.

I thought she asked fair question given that 1/2 of the voters are women and Trump has documented history of his dealings with women.   If Jeb Bush or Carson had similar history, they wouldn't even be standing in the podium at the debate.   Even if they do, a moderator would have asked similar question for sure.   This is politics.   If you have a bad past, they will be brought up front and center.   Trump should have expected it, and handled it.    Likewise, these questions will keep coming up in future debates, as Ms. Clinton will be asked about all the stuff in her closet again and again.

I want to point out that I am  not running for POTUS b/c I too have said a few unsavory things in my youth (and that I am still working on my 1st $B).

[Helmet]

I said many times before Obama was elected for his second term that we need a successful business man and someone who will make other countries respect/fear us again. I'm not a much of a DT fan but he fits the bill for what I think the U.S. needs right now.

[rkim291968]

I said many times before Obama was elected for his second term that we need a successful business man and someone who will make other countries respect/fear us again. I'm not a much of a DT fan but he fits the bill for what I think the U.S. needs right now.

Russia, ISIS, North Korea, Iran, China won't fear Trump or any other POTUS we elect.  Their policy or ours won't change overnight because we elected a certain president.   What specific things can Trump do to make other countries respect/fear us?    What other candidates can do to make others respect/fear US?   Heck, they have to work with Senate, Congress, and public opinion to make any major decision.   So, all the BS that Trump has been spewing out is just that, BS.   E.g, build a border wall and Mexico pay for it?  Do you know what it will take to build a wall that long?  Buying land, env studies, securing budget, ... , it will take years before it can even be started.  Trump will be long gone by then.  How would Trump make Mexico pay?   Put a gun to Mexican president's or threaten him with lawsuit?   Even if we build a wall, that will stop immigrants?   Really?   People will find holes in walls, climb over it, dug tunnel below (refer to tunnels build on Israel/Palestine, Mexico/US, NK/SK, ...).     Human drive to make a living is far stronger than any man made barrier we put up.  Just ask UK or other EU countries being flooded with people escaping Syria, North Africa, ....   They are risking their lives to come across a sea.   Stop being naive and see Trump as who he is, a narcissist egomaniac who have been talking big without understanding what he is saying.