Investment Forums

[Lihu]

Anyone subscribe to any good investment forums?

http://www.moneypowercenter.com/investing/annual-reports/top-10-forums.aspx

This one has a lot of junk posts, but seems to be the largest. http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/YHOO/

I like Motley Fool, and am really curious as to the direction that the sheep run, so to speak. . .

[Gator Hazard]

I don't subscribe but I do like to go and read a few articles here and there.  Motley Fool I am cautious with but I do read a lot of stuff off of yahoo finance.

[DaveP043]

It seems to me that there's even less consensus regarding investment strategy than there is in golf instruction.  Much of the commentary is similar, in that almost everyone can tell you what happened to cause something, after its already happened.  Its so much tougher to tell you what is GOING to happen, and why.  

[Lihu]

  On 11/16/2015 at 7:02 PM, Gator Hazard said:

I don't subscribe but I do like to go and read a few articles here and there.  Motley Fool I am cautious with but I do read a lot of stuff off of yahoo finance.

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  On 11/16/2015 at 7:17 PM, DaveP043 said:

It seems to me that there's even less consensus regarding investment strategy than there is in golf instruction.  Much of the commentary is similar, in that almost everyone can tell you what happened to cause something, after its already happened.  Its so much tougher to tell you what is GOING to happen, and why.  

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It's totally black magic, but I'm just kind of looking for the direction the "flock" is more likely to migrate.

[chspeed]

  On 11/16/2015 at 7:17 PM, DaveP043 said:

Much of the commentary is similar, in that almost everyone can tell you what happened to cause something, after its already happened.  Its so much tougher to tell you what is GOING to happen, and why.  

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Couldn't agree more! Nobody can predict what is going to happen, period. Stock picking is one of the biggest scams brought upon the US consumer in the last hundred years. Not only is it statistically useless, and rarely performs better than random chance or stock indices, but this part of Wall Street is a classic example of lunatics running the asylum.

[Lihu]

Yeah, I have to agree that the best money making stocks are what appear to be from purely random events. . .

[Kenny Lee]

I'm not a member of any investment forums. I prefer to think independently, and don't really want opinions from others.

I prefer to invest in companies that have a history of growing revenue and earnings, a debt-free balance sheet, strong cash flow, and are trading at a PE ratio that's on the lower end of their 5-year historical range.

I don't trade. I invest. And it works. Allowed me to retire at 42 and spend my days drinking and playing golf with friends.

[rkim291968]

I stop picking stocks since 2008.   I am sticking with a diverse set of mutual funds whose performance is proven (10 years or more).   I have 60/40 portfolio which I re-balance time to time. 

Then I have short term trade accounts which I use to generate income and/or hedge against downturn market.   YTD, it's up 13% vs the S&P 500 which is flat right now.

I don't need investment forum to corrupt what I know now.  It is working for me .... .

[DaveP043]

  On 11/16/2015 at 8:20 PM, rkim291968 said:

don't need investment forum to corrupt what I know now.  It is working for me .... .

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OK, so you don't need financial advice, that's OK, but I have a couple of swing tips for ya...

[saevel25]

  On 11/16/2015 at 7:17 PM, DaveP043 said:

It seems to me that there's even less consensus regarding investment strategy than there is in golf instruction.  Much of the commentary is similar, in that almost everyone can tell you what happened to cause something, after its already happened.  Its so much tougher to tell you what is GOING to happen, and why.  

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1. Don't get aggressive just to chase gains. Though I was smart to dump international stock about 6 years ago. That particular fund hasn't out performed my bond fund.

2. Diversify. If you want to use some side money to maybe do something else, fine. Almost all your money should be diversified. My dad's finance guy had a hunch about the oil prices. So my dad took a small amount of money and had him invest it. 

If you want to day trade then go to a casino and play black jack. At least you get near 50:50 odds ;)
 

  On 11/16/2015 at 8:20 PM, rkim291968 said:

I stop picking stocks since 2008.   I am sticking with a diverse set of mutual funds whose performance is proven (10 years or more).   I have 60/40 portfolio which I re-balance time to time. 

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Nothing is proven ;) You are just less likely to have as many huge up and downs if you chase gains and don't diversify. 

 

[rkim291968]

  On 11/16/2015 at 9:07 PM, saevel25 said:

If you want to day trade then go to a casino and play black jack. At least you get near 50:50 odds ;)

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  It's the same thing.  I studied, and practiced counting cards and I can tell you that short term trading is very similar to counting cards.   They both need sizable capital (so that you don't run out of money when running into a bad streak), proven method, and discipline (stick to a proven rule/method instead of going with gut feel).  

[chspeed]

  On 11/16/2015 at 9:07 PM, saevel25 said:

Nothing is proven ;) You are just less likely to have as many huge up and downs if you chase gains and don't diversify. 

 

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This.

  On 11/16/2015 at 8:04 PM, Kenny Lee said:

I don't trade. I invest. And it works. Allowed me to retire at 42 and spend my days drinking and playing golf with friends.

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Happy for you, and jealous!

I could be wrong, but I'd hazard a guess that it's wealth acquired through work or otherwise, not this rather conservative-sounding investing, that allowed you to retire young. Investing is a great way to maintain and even grow wealth, but usually not enough to build it from the ground up.

[Kenny Lee]

  On 11/16/2015 at 9:50 PM, chspeed said:

I could be wrong, but I'd hazard a guess that it's wealth acquired through work or otherwise, not this rather conservative-sounding investing, that allowed you to retire young. Investing is a great way to maintain and even grow wealth, but usually not enough to build it from the ground up.

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All of it was due to investing. Me and wifey lived off one salary and saved/invested the other. Do this and generate returns of around 15% per year, and you'll have plenty.

  On 11/16/2015 at 9:21 PM, rkim291968 said:

  It's the same thing.  I studied, and practiced counting cards and I can tell you that short term trading is very similar to counting cards.   They both need sizable capital (so that you don't run out of money when running into a bad streak), proven method, and discipline (stick to a proven rule/method instead of going with gut feel).  

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Well, that's not something I see often. Real card counters are a rare breed, indeed.

After I retired, I put together a bankroll of $60k and studied and practiced obsessively for 6 months. Then I started hitting the casinos- monthly trips to Vegas, and several shorts trips elsewhere.

And I'm sure you know that counting cards is NOTHING like they portray in the movies. The edges are razor thin and the variance is just brutal. And good games with pit critters that will allow decent spreads are rare too. I did it for about two years, then was burnt out and quit. Made some money, but not a lot.

[chspeed]

  On 11/16/2015 at 10:27 PM, Kenny Lee said:

Do this and generate returns of around 15% per year, and you'll have plenty.

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You did live on one salary, so the other salary is what built your base of wealth. Saving is a great way to get wealthy. Most of us aren't very good at it.

Not many investors manage this type of average return over 20+ years. Certainly very few professional ones do. You can get lucky (e.g. you bought a big chunk of Apple or MSFT or Google at the right time), but even these winners can be offset by losers unless they represent an overly large part of your early investment, in which case you weren't a conservative investor, just a lucky one.

[rkim291968]

  On 11/16/2015 at 10:27 PM, Kenny Lee said:

After I retired, I put together a bankroll of $60k and studied and practiced obsessively for 6 months. Then I started hitting the casinos- monthly trips to Vegas, and several shorts trips elsewhere.

And I'm sure you know that counting cards is NOTHING like they portray in the movies. The edges are razor thin and the variance is just brutal. And good games with pit critters that will allow decent spreads are rare too. I did it for about two years, then was burnt out and quit. Made some money, but not a lot.

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I did the same in my 30s.   I got to a point where I won or broke even about 90% of the time, and once was refused by a casino to play in a table.   I think the pit boss's exact word was "sorry, we don't allow card counting ..."  or something to the effect.   I was flabbergasted at that.  

My experience has been that it is quite a boring work if you call it a that.   It's a job for a robot not for fun seeking person.   The same trait is what it takes to make money in short term trading, too.  Develop a winning method, and stick to it like a robot.   Boring as hell, and you can make money over a long run.

My wife and I still go to Casino once in a while but we play the slot machines.  When my wife and I lose some money, I go to BJ table to recoup and play more slots. 

And BTW, Casino BJ rules have been changing to discourage counting.   Finding the table with the rules you have an edge is half the battle.  

[mvmac]

I don't go on any investment forums or read magazines, I figure they're probably the equivalent of golf magazines 

We have a family friend that's been with Merrill Lynch for a long time that helps me manage my portfolio and has taught me a lot with how to invest. I read a lot of the information I get from ML, newsletters, articles, stuff like that. With my real estate business it's kind of the same thing, I try to learn from experts in the field, read articles they recommend and take note of any trends or patterns I see with what they're saying or how they're going about their business. Played golf today with a guy I would consider an expert in real estate, had the opportunity to pick his brain and it gave me a different perspective with how to move forward with a few things I'm planning for next year.