US Ryder Cup - What if there were no automatic qualifiers?

[Big C]

With the European squad now decided, the chatter now turns to the USA and how Davis Love will deploy his 4 captains picks. But I thought it would be an interesting thought experiment (and hopefully create some debate) to discuss how the team would shake out if their were no automatic qualifiers. What if every spot on the team was up for grabs, subject to the discretion of the captain? Who would you like to see on the team and why? Here would be my choices, in order of preference.

1. Patrick Reed - His match play record in college was legendary and his first experience at the Ryder Cup only reinforced that. If I had to choose an American player to play for my life savings, at this point I would choose Reed without hesitation.

2. Dustin Johnson - Any of the next three guys could be number 2 for me, but DJ gets the nod because I love his demeanor - the yin to Patrick Reed's yang. The way he handled the US Open flap this year showed me how much his mental game has improved. And his singles record in Ryder Cup is as good as anyone on the American side. He crushed Martin Kaymer in 2010 when the US still had hopes of pulling off the Sunday upset, and his stress free victory over Colsaerts in 2012 looked to be crucial at a time when the US badly needed to stop the bleeding.

3. Jordan Spieth - The 12th hole at Augusta showed that he's not immune to pressure, but he's pretty darn close. He's among the best players in the world and someone Love could put out there in any format with confidence. 

4. Phil Mickelson - His Ryder Cup record is a little misleading. I think (and this is just a baseless hunch) that it was tough for Phil  to embrace the concept of camaraderie for one week out of the year when he and Tiger were battling for Alpha Dog status the other 51 weeks. This was only magnified by disastrous captains decision to pair Phil & Tiger in 2004. In the two Ryder Cup's since Tiger has "mellowed," Phil's record is 5-2-0. He is now unquestionably the leader of the team and his form is top notch. At 46, I think he knows his Ryder Cup days are winding down and I would expect a fantastic showing from him at Hazeltine.

5. Brooks Koepka - The first rookie on the list, he is playing some outstanding golf and has a solid match play record to boot. He won his group in the WCG Match play and followed that up by beating Kuchar in the round of 16. His loss to eventual champ Jason Day was no shame. I would expect him to perform well under pressure.

6. Zach Johnson - Of all the US participants, with significant matches under their belts, Zach is one of the few that does not have a losing record. He is a sound steady player and would be a great partner in both fourball and foursomes. In the United States' most pathetic format (foursomes), he is the only guy that has multiple wins under his belt.

7. Matt Kuchar - His Ryder Cup record 4-5-2 is respectable, if not overwhelming. He's another guy with a long and favorable match play record and someone whose game is easily suited to being paired with almost anyone. 

8. JB Holmes - His last experience was 2008, but it was a good one. He is playing good golf right now and we would be a great lively personality to mix in amongst some of his mellower teammates.

9. Jimmy Walker - No disrespect, and it's probably a bit lower than he deserves, but I don't entirely trust his match play chops quite yet. He performed respectably in Gleneagles, however and as good as his form is right now, it's a no-brainer to include him on the team. 

10. Jason Dufner - This is where it gets really tough. Of the remaining guys, there is no one I really think would be a slam dunk pick. So I'm gonna go with my gut and say that Dufner can overcome a mediocre year to date and shine when the spotlight is brightest. He really impressed me in 2012 - when the rest of the US team was gagging left and right on Sunday, Dufner just did his thing, hitting fairways and greens - and was never seriously challenged in his singles match. I know his putting can be a bit spotty, but like DJ, his demeanor and temperament are well suited to the Ryder Cup. The guy just doesn't get rattled.

11. Russell Henley - Ok here is my wild card pick. Sure, he is way down on the Ryder Cup points rankings, but like I said above, there is no one who is overwhelmingly deserving of a spot. So I don't care about the light PGA resume, I'm going to trust that the steel nerves he showed in college carry over to the Ryder Cup. Over two years he had a 5-0 match play record for Georgia in the NCAA championships. His 2-3 record in the WGC match play event isn't overwhelming, but the 3 losses were nothing to hang his head about. 1-Down to Jason Day in 19 holes (2013). 1 Down to Brooks Koepka (2015). And 1 Down in 19 holes to JB Holmes (2015). Just about every meaningful match played was a victory or came to the 18th tee with the outcome in doubt. Good enough for me.

12. Jim Furyk................ ok, joking, joking. Honestly I have no idea who I would pick here. Snedeker and Fowler are undoubtedly deserving based on recent play. Too bad I don't trust either of them. Daniel Berger seems to be building support  - although I wonder if people are giving him too much credit for the stubborn decision not to concede a 1 footer to Phil Mickelson. Steve Stricker? No thanks. Bubba Watson? eh. I guess I'll just leave it at that and let those more knowledgeable than me chime in.....

[mchepp]

I was just pondering this question earlier in the week, so I wrote a blog about it. 

https://thesandtrap.com/b/thrash_talk/the_curious_case_of_jim_furyk

I focus in on Jim Furyk because he has been awful in the Ryder Cup. In fact the worst who has played in more than 15 matches that is currently playing. 

Your idea of a complete team of captains picks was one I floated after one of the years we lost not all that long ago in a Thrash Talk article. The counter argument is captains like Tom Watson. Last Ryder Cup for reasons that may never be understood he picked Webb Simpson. How did Web repay him? With a loss on the opening day and then not participating again until his tie in his singles match. Having auto qualifiers guarantees if you play good even you are a rookie without any Ryder Cup experience and doesn't let captains play favorites. 

My picks were JB (for the reasons you outlined as well), Kuchar (he can wear his bronze out there), and Berger. I like giving Berger a chance. 

[natureboy]

1 hour ago, mchepp said:

I was just pondering this question earlier in the week, so I wrote a blog about it. 

https://thesandtrap.com/b/thrash_talk/the_curious_case_of_jim_furyk

I focus in on Jim Furyk because he has been awful in the Ryder Cup. In fact the worst who has played in more than 15 matches that is currently playing. 

I just responded. I'd run the comparison again. I think you gave Furyk 3 extra losses. The old Ryder Cup player pages are not accurate vs. Wikipedia.

[mchepp]

18 minutes ago, natureboy said:

I just responded. I'd run the comparison again. I think you gave Furyk 3 extra losses. The old Ryder Cup player pages are not accurate vs. Wikipedia.

Hmm. This is from the Ryder Cup website prior to the 2014 event.

9-17-4

The he and Kuchar lost to Donaldson/Westwood on Friday afternoon. 9-18-4

He and Hunter win over Donaldson/Westwood on Saturday morning 10-18-4

He and Hunter go out again in the afternoon and lose to Garcia/McIlroy 10-19-4

Then Sergio beat him in the singles 10-20-4

Where is the wikipedia page you are referring too?

[Natural Patrick]

Great observations on Patrick Reed and Russell Henley.

[natureboy]

Here are some numbers for the U.S. squad and some hopefuls.

	SG-Tee	SG-Appr	SG-T&A	SG-ARG	SG-Putt	SG-Totl	Driv Dist	Par 4 #	Par 3 #	Par 5 #	Birdies	Bogeys	Bird/Bog
Dustin Johnson	1.077	0.489	0.487	0.073	0.272	0.548	314.4	4	16	7	4.37	2.27	1.70
Phil Mickelson	0.085	0.703	0.291	0.244	0.786	0.471	294.5	46	1	10	4.06	2.19	1.68
Jordan Spieth	0.465	0.217	0.213	0.391	0.710	0.403	295.5	2	51	5	4.28	2.41	1.63
Brooks Koepka	0.595	0.224	0.252	-0.014	0.483	0.336	303.0	11	56	46	4.15	2.87	1.39
Jimmy Walker	-0.127	0.561	0.178	0.305	0.253	0.272	300.1	81	157	23	3.79	2.83	1.22
Patrick Reed	0.246	0.229	0.156	0.436	0.195	0.261	297.0	47	43	16	3.78	2.33	1.50
Brandt Snedeker	0.119	0.185	0.104	0.324	0.351	0.219	292.5	1	112	159	3.83	2.49	1.42
Zach Johnson	-0.257	0.291	0.039	0.315	0.388	0.159	280.0	61	34	52	3.69	2.64	1.30
AVERAGE	0.275	0.362	0.215	0.259	0.430	0.334	297.1	32	59	40	3.99	2.50	1.48
	SG-Tee	SG-Appr	SG-T&A	SG-ARG	SG-Putt	SG-Totl	Driv Dist	Par 4 #	Par 3 #	Par 5 #	Birdies	Bogeys	Bird/Bog
Rickie Fowler	0.619	0.366	0.312	0.432	0.255	0.427	301.3	7	92	27	3.72	2.01	1.64
Bubba Watson	0.941	0.504	0.455	-0.018	-0.177	0.420	310.2	95	146	2	3.80	2.76	1.28
Matt Kuchar	0.371	0.352	0.238	0.252	0.475	0.363	285.9	12	90	32	3.87	2.31	1.48
Gary Woodland	0.498	0.549	0.348	0.042	-0.049	0.346	307.2	30	167	8	3.61	2.25	1.44
Billy Horschel	0.460	0.481	0.312	-0.038	0.085	0.321	293.0	56	179	114	3.67	2.84	1.18
Kevin Chappell	0.311	0.735	0.366	0.149	-0.406	0.317	295.2	89	88	66	3.56	2.77	1.23
Kevin Na	-0.242	0.865	0.261	0.188	0.100	0.309	279.4	3	61	124	3.86	2.55	1.42
Daniel Berger	0.322	0.480	0.273	-0.082	0.253	0.305	298.8	27	106	63	3.83	2.45	1.39
William McGirt	0.411	0.258	0.213	0.057	0.413	0.297	287.2	14	60	91	3.58	2.47	1.37
Charley Hoffman	0.519	0.363	0.283	-0.046	0.014	0.278	297.9	134	89	105	3.40	2.90	1.11
Jason Dufner	0.305	0.557	0.297	0.097	-0.354	0.249	292.5	25	121	48	3.84	2.69	1.31
Brendan Steele	0.581	0.363	0.301	-0.136	-0.172	0.248	302.1	108	128	11	3.58	2.57	1.30
Ryan Moore	-0.021	0.374	0.136	0.259	0.373	0.245	282.5	34	7	137	3.70	2.57	1.35
Ryan Palmer	0.631	0.192	0.250	-0.063	-0.048	0.231	304.4	92	127	6	3.87	2.64	1.32
Bill Haas	0.096	0.426	0.189	0.407	-0.239	0.211	289.1	58	35	116	3.08	2.32	1.26
Justin Thomas	0.048	0.597	0.240	-0.027	-0.223	0.196	301.0	140	113	15	3.72	2.76	1.22
Kevin Kisner	0.391	0.013	0.114	-0.307	0.657	0.184	289.0	21	100	72	3.82	2.62	1.31
Jim Furyk	-0.251	0.479	0.112	0.239	0.159	0.179	281.8	135	6	95	3.17	2.65	1.14
Russell Henley	0.312	0.079	0.117	-0.084	0.304	0.159	295.6	19	46	98	3.55	2.26	1.41
J.B. Holmes	0.733	-0.138	0.153	0.116	-0.151	0.144	313.9	114	18	102	4.11	2.97	1.24
Harris English	-0.317	0.211	-0.009	0.172	0.602	0.127	299.0	86	104	62	3.49	2.78	1.18
Scott Piercy	0.450	0.115	0.170	-0.107	-0.249	0.108	298.0	109	137	34	3.55	2.72	1.19
Tony Finau	0.430	-0.090	0.086	-0.033	-0.038	0.074	312.5	53	175	19	3.64	2.68	1.25

I disagree with @Big C on J.B. Holmes. I would guess his Ryder Cup points are based more on last year. He's not playing great now compared to many players and really only contributes good driving. My attitude is to look more to Strokes Gained to assess where their game is at now vs. a 2-year picture from the Ryder Cup points system.

Henley is more interesting than I expected on first reaction. His SG is similar to Zach Johnson with fairly balanced scoring by hole type, and a solid birdie to bogey ratio. Even though a bit behind McGirt in SG, his hole scoring rankings are similar.

If it was all qualifying and no picks, I might skip Walker this year in favor of 'hotter' players unless his recent Major win was a sign of a late-season trend rather than one good week.

As far as my 'captain's picks', I'd definitely take DJ, Phil, Jordan, Koepka, Fowler, Watson, Kuchar, & Gary Woodland.Rickie and Phil might be a natural pair given how much they play together and the way that Phil's strength cover's Rickie's par-3 weakness.

I'd expect to pair Woodland with a good par-3 player for fourball or give him all the par 5's in a foursomes match. I'd hope to find the right pairing for Bubba based on his outstanding long game / average short game (primarily fourball) and expecting him to be less 'twitchy' on non-foreign soil. Bubba could be paired with a really good putter for foursomes and tee off on all the par-3's to avoid putting from distance

I'd likely take Patrick Reed based on solid, but not outstanding strokes gained, balanced scoring on each type of hole, good rookie showing in 2014, strong recent form, and good mindset / nerves for the competition format.

I think I'd pick Zach Johnson based on his Ryder Cup record (primarily Foursomes), balanced scoring ranking on par-3/4/5, and to have some extra experience & multi-Major winner presence, though I'd likely expect him to go out against 'weaker' opponents than his world rank would indicate.

Last 2 picks likeliest from Daniel Berger, William McGirt (paired with a power player like Woodland who eats up par-5s), Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, or Billy Horschel. With Reed and Zach already onboard, I'd be leaning toward better Tee & Approach numbers with average or better putting.

Brendan Steele and Dufner are also interesting for possible ballstriking contributions and Dufner played very well with Zach Johnson (but I'd keep both to foursomes). Steele has good ballstriking and length for fourball, and I don't think a -0.17 SG putting is too much of a deficit when it's the ballstriking that will primarily give you the makeable putts in that format. With Steele, his imbalanced scoring favoring par-5's is a question mark. What causes being able to score near top 10 on par 5's, but only average on par 4's?...Not as strong with short irons as he should be?

I wouldn't pick Na because Zach's driving is already enough liability to have to cover for, and it seems like (personal impression) driving may have an outsized influence on single round match play vs. 72 hole stroke play. Probably not a good event for Na's temperament either. I wouldn't pick Chappell because his putting seems too big a negative.

Edited September 2, 2016 by natureboy

[natureboy]

4 hours ago, mchepp said:

Hmm. This is from the Ryder Cup website prior to the 2014 event.

9-17-4

Where is the wikipedia page you are referring too?

Sorry, my bad. I must have been looking at 2012 thinking I was on 2014 tab. Feel free to delete that part of the post on the blog.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Ryder_Cup

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ryder_Cup

[Big C]

19 hours ago, mchepp said:

I was just pondering this question earlier in the week, so I wrote a blog about it. 

https://thesandtrap.com/b/thrash_talk/the_curious_case_of_jim_furyk

I focus in on Jim Furyk because he has been awful in the Ryder Cup. In fact the worst who has played in more than 15 matches that is currently playing. 

Good blog post. I think we all agree on Furyk.

19 hours ago, mchepp said:

. Having auto qualifiers guarantees if you play good even you are a rookie without any Ryder Cup experience and doesn't let captains play favorites. 

Oh, no question. I think there absolutely needs to be a combination of meritocracy (who has "earned" their way on through good play) and subjectivity (who does the captain think will rise to the occasion for this particular event). I wasn't suggesting that eliminating Automatic Qualifiers was right move. I just thought it would make for an interesting discussion to know how other posters would "draft" the US team if given the choice. For me anyway, it wasn't necessarily correlated to who is playing the best statistically

14 hours ago, natureboy said:

 

3.64

2.68

1.25

I disagree with @Big C on J.B. Holmes. I would guess his Ryder Cup points are based more on last year. He's not playing great now compared to many players and really only contributes good driving. My attitude is to look more to Strokes Gained to assess where their game is at now vs. a 2-year picture from the Ryder Cup points system.

 

Fair point on J.B. I didn't look at the stats as closely as you did. That said, I think any captain would have a REALLY hard time leaving him off when his ranking puts him inside the top 10 and his last experience with the Ryder Cup was so favorable.

 

14 hours ago, natureboy said:

As far as my 'captain's picks', I'd definitely take DJ, Phil, Jordan, Koepka, Fowler, Watson, Kuchar, & Gary Woodland.Rickie and Phil might be a natural pair given how much they play together and the way that Phil's strength cover's Rickie's par-3 weakness.

Rickie is still young and will get other chances in the Ryder Cup, but I would feel absolutely no obligation to say he's a lock. He's played 8 Ryder Cup matches and doesn't have a single win for crying out loud!

In general, I can appreciate the statistical logic behind your analysis, but I think those considerations (as far as pairings and partnerships go) should be made after the squad is selected. I don't mean to dismiss the analytics, but really someone's Strokes gained/Tee to Green doesn't mean much when I'm trying to figure out who has the right mentality to hole a crucial putt in front of thousands of cheering/jeering fans. Stats are great but they have their limitations. Specifically, your ambivalence on Reed is astonishing. Would you really take Rickie Fowler (in your words, "definitely" a pick) over Patrick Reed ("likely" a pick)??? Look at the body of work and tell me which of those two guys you would rather have on your match play squad.

[natureboy]

2 hours ago, Big C said:

Good blog post. I think we all agree on Furyk.

Oh, no question. I think there absolutely needs to be a combination of meritocracy (who has "earned" their way on through good play) and subjectivity (who does the captain think will rise to the occasion for this particular event). I wasn't suggesting that eliminating Automatic Qualifiers was right move. I just thought it would make for an interesting discussion to know how other posters would "draft" the US team if given the choice. For me anyway, it wasn't necessarily correlated to who is playing the best statistically

Fair point on J.B. I didn't look at the stats as closely as you did. That said, I think any captain would have a REALLY hard time leaving him off when his ranking puts him inside the top 10 and his last experience with the Ryder Cup was so favorable.

Rickie is still young and will get other chances in the Ryder Cup, but I would feel absolutely no obligation to say he's a lock. He's played 8 Ryder Cup matches and doesn't have a single win for crying out loud!

In general, I can appreciate the statistical logic behind your analysis, but I think those considerations (as far as pairings and partnerships go) should be made after the squad is selected. I don't mean to dismiss the analytics, but really someone's Strokes gained/Tee to Green doesn't mean much when I'm trying to figure out who has the right mentality to hole a crucial putt in front of thousands of cheering/jeering fans. Stats are great but they have their limitations. Specifically, your ambivalence on Reed is astonishing. Would you really take Rickie Fowler (in your words, "definitely" a pick) over Patrick Reed ("likely" a pick)??? Look at the body of work and tell me which of those two guys you would rather have on your match play squad.

I agree Furyk is better left off the team, but not necessarily because he's not 'clutch'. Much like I'll argue below for why J.B. had success is why I think Furyk hasn't (mostly) from being used well vs. poorly. Furyk's singles record (4-4-1) is about even (more losses as he's gotten older and the European team deeper). And he's played Sergio a bunch of times - a far stronger ballstriker. If his foursome pairings (4-8-2) had possibly been better he might have a more even record.

Given his relative weaknesses / strengths, IMO Furyk shouldn't have even had a fourball record (2-8-1), except to fill in if someone got sick, hurt, or their game fell apart. Furyk's lack of distance and style of play is a severe handicap in that format against ~ top 30 players. Against the field in 72 hole stroke play, bogey avoidance is great. Not so much in a single-round match of better ball. If a player like Furyk makes the team nowadays you basically have to try to hide the liability somewhere by sitting, matching up against the weakest opponents, or pairing with the right player for foursomes which is the only format he might contribute in. In 2004 he was paired with David Toms in fourball for cripes sake against Garcia / Westwood two far longer and better ballstrikers. The Euro's consistently sat Donald for fourball even when he was a better birdie producer than Furyk.

J.B had success in '08 because Azinger only played him and Weekley for fourballs / better ball where their relatively weaker short games and putting (and higher bogey rates) were less of a liability, and their excellent ballstriking was a big asset. Similar to Rose / Stenson, J.B. could boot one out there and Boo was relaible to put a solid one in the fairway. To boot, their relative strengths on par-3/4/5 holes complemented each other so as an 'averaged' player their pairing was quite competitive. Kevin Chappel's stats are similar to Weekley's from '08 so he could be a decent pairing for J.B., but I think there may be stronger players ahead of both of them, like Woodland, Horschel, and Berger who could form a similar duo.

I think Rickie is a good player to 'grow' for the future. I think he's halved some tough matches and played good opponents pretty close. I don't think it was the right move in '14 to keep him and Walker together for foursomes Walker is too erratic with control off the tee for foursomes IMO. I think Rickie's 'expected' game from the strokes gained stats is probably better than a lot of less statistically strong players' 'mentally heroic' game.

I think the right mentality does have an influence (why I left Na off), but the statistical measures are the best estimate of how a player's going to perform day-in day-out. Birdie rate is really big for fourball. If they've played in some final groupings in big tournaments, they have at least some exposure to level of nerves, though it's hard for anyone to prepare for the uniqueness of the Ryder Cup. A guy with a great mentality may be less likely to waver, but if his base game is the pits, that 'mental game' boost isn't going to help him. Ian Poulter's game has slipped and he wasn't picked despite being very 'mentally tough' in the past.

I like Reed, but his stats this year aren't eye-popping, though actually better than '14 (same for Spieth). In singles, short game and putting can matter more than the ballstriking matters in fourball, which is why he was able to take Stenson. He may also have been fresher.

Take a look at this thread: 

Basically, you remember crucial putts more than the shots that led up to them. Because for even great ones, putting has a large random element, ballstriking matters more to giving you enough makeable putts to win the day. Rose and Stenson in '14 were both average putters, but excellent ballstrikers. Rose was longer off the tee while Stenson was a bit shorter but more likely to be in the fairway nicely balancing each other out. Both were top notch with irons & woods. Rose had a plus short game to boot. They rained birdies down a U.S. team who had the best putter of the 4 players. They won, owing to their ballstriking, not superior putting.

 

Edited September 2, 2016 by natureboy

[iacas]

4 hours ago, natureboy said:

I agree Furyk is better left off the team, but not necessarily because he's not 'clutch'.

As I've said, I think he's a bit of a gagger.

[natureboy]

Apparently Furyk is a lock based on team room leadership, coming second in the U.S. Open, and shooting 58 in one round. JB Holmes should be picked based on past Ryder Cup and performance in a Major this year. Rickie and Bubba should be left off the team when they have the best strokes gained of any player not already on the team?

Clearly, I make more allowance for Furyk than most on this site, but even I recognize his game is not a big contributor in 18-hole match play. Are "intangibles" more important than the baseline of a player's regular game?

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/chamblee-wouldnt-take-watson-fowler-hazeltine

[Scotsclaff]

If there were no automatic places it would give way to sucking up.

Edited September 6, 2016 by iacas
removed needless graphic language

[ZappyAd]

If I was looking for a 12th pick and I hadn't already then I would include Bubba.  Seems to me he has proven his desire to represent his country and passion can go a long way in the Ryder Cup.  Plus the fact that he always has the potential to bomb one way down the fairway could be a psychological weapon in match play.

[natureboy]

5 hours ago, ZappyAd said:

If I was looking for a 12th pick and I hadn't already then I would include Bubba.  Seems to me he has proven his desire to represent his country and passion can go a long way in the Ryder Cup.  Plus the fact that he always has the potential to bomb one way down the fairway could be a psychological weapon in match play.

In fourball, I'd agree if he's paired with someone who is steadier with putting a solid drive (at least average distance) in the fairway, so he can swing freely. I don't think his game is strongly suited to foursomes. Bubba also has the potential to bomb one way, way out of play.

It seems that he's gotten more comfortable with these events over time (what's his President's Cup record)?  I'd look at him like J.B. Holmes in '08. Just need to pair him with a steadier player who can make par more often than not (Kuchar?) like Boo Weekley - and don't send that pairing out against the strongest team like Rose/Stenson in '14.

On the worrying side he seems to be gakking more short putts than I remember in '14, but his lag putting seems to have improved. But relative to '14 his birdie rate is down while his bogey rate is up.

[Big C]

7 hours ago, ZappyAd said:

If I was looking for a 12th pick and I hadn't already then I would include Bubba.  Seems to me he has proven his desire to represent his country and passion can go a long way in the Ryder Cup.  Plus the fact that he always has the potential to bomb one way down the fairway could be a psychological weapon in match play.

Bubba is an interesting case. His singles record is very good in individual events. He is 12-7-1 lifetime in the WGC match play. But his singles record in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup is a terrible 0-4-1 combined.

He is 3-5-0 in his Ryder Cup team matches, with all 3 wins coming in fourball. In the President's Cup, his team record is 4-2-1 and the Foursomes is by far his best format (3-0-1). Honestly, I have no idea what to make of that data - there seems to be no rhyme or reason to it. In terms of his singles showings, I think it's reflective of two things. 1. Bubba is one of the most talented players on the tour and 2. He is one of the bigger head cases as well. So while Bubba should be able to win most matches on talent alone, the crucible of a Ryder Cup (and to a lesser extent, President's Cup) might get into his head and present him from playing his best golf. I'm not sure how else to explain an 0-4-1 record for one of the most talented guys on the US side.

On 9/4/2016 at 8:01 PM, natureboy said:

Are "intangibles" more important than the baseline of a player's regular game?

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/chamblee-wouldnt-take-watson-fowler-hazeltine

If we are assuming a minimum acceptable baseline for consideration, then yes, I think they are. Team based golf is different in so many ways from your typical Thursday-Sunday tour grind. Playing for your country and 11 other teammates adds a whole new layer of pressure that is almost impossible to prepare for. Of course, that's just my opinion.

[natureboy]

4 hours ago, Big C said:

Bubba is an interesting case. His singles record is very good in individual events. He is 12-7-1 lifetime in the WGC match play. But his singles record in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup is a terrible 0-4-1 combined.

He is 3-5-0 in his Ryder Cup team matches, with all 3 wins coming in fourball. In the President's Cup, his team record is 4-2-1 and the Foursomes is by far his best format (3-0-1). Honestly, I have no idea what to make of that data - there seems to be no rhyme or reason to it. In terms of his singles showings, I think it's reflective of two things. 1. Bubba is one of the most talented players on the tour and 2. He is one of the bigger head cases as well. So while Bubba should be able to win most matches on talent alone, the crucible of a Ryder Cup (and to a lesser extent, President's Cup) might get into his head and present him from playing his best golf. I'm not sure how else to explain an 0-4-1 record for one of the most talented guys on the US side.

If we are assuming a minimum acceptable baseline for consideration, then yes, I think they are. Team based golf is different in so many ways from your typical Thursday-Sunday tour grind. Playing for your country and 11 other teammates adds a whole new layer of pressure that is almost impossible to prepare for. Of course, that's just my opinion.

My view is that the baseline is their regular play with some consideration of the format.

Guys whose game elevates in the Ryder Cup seem pretty rare. Westwood seems to be one. Poulter was, but you can only elevate your base game so far. Poulter's game clearly slipped to where the Euros don't think he can contribute. Reed seems to be such a player for the U.S. Most players however, will tend to play a little tighter and worse than 'average'. If Bill Haas was clutch and could double the level of his regular game, he'd just about match Daniel Berger in strokes gained and would still be below Bubba. In the '14 singles, Spieth got beat by McDowell who more than 'elevating' his game had a career year in strokes gained, and was putting out of his mind. His 'base game' slipped and now he's not on the Euro team.

To me that means you want to get guys whose 'average' is high enough to allow for that expected drop-off. Look at Tiger, he performed below expectation for his typical stroke play game level. Maybe because he employed his 'tactic' of laying back on holes so he could hit to the flag first - bad idea giving your opponent the gift of extra distance unless the hole calls for it. I'd still pick a pre-injury Tiger, because even a 'tight' Tiger is good for points.

(Also @ZappyAd) Bubba, for example, doesn't have the 'complete game' for foursomes. He probably would have 4 wins in fourball, but came up against an almost 'perfect' pairing for that format last time in Rose/Stenson. That's his event for Ryder Cup, IMO.

Bubba's stronger record in Ryder Cup vs. President's Cup is likely due to the level of the competition and the relative pressure.Other than his rookie Ryder Cup against MAJ (probably a savvy short game and solid putting), Bubba's had pretty strong opponents (Donald and Kaymer both former world #1's) in singles. Don't put him in the first or last singles match.

In President's Cup, the U.S. players know the opposing team isn't as deep and more matches favors the U.S. team. There's more pressure to win individual matches in Ryder Cup and that's probably why Bubba does better in the other. Probably gets too 'keyed up' or 'tries too hard' in Ryder Cup. Freddie Couples' low key style may be helpful with Bubba too. If you pick him, assign one of the vice-captains he likes or respects to 'handle' / assist him a bit to help put him in a calm frame of mind to get the most out of him.

Based on his record and strengths, I'd say send Bubba out for both fourball matches with a steadier, but less brilliant ballstriker with solid short game / good putting (Kuchar?) who will keep the team in the hole most times and allow Bubba to play his regular game and make some birdies. If his driving is all over the map and he isn't scrambling well, sit him. He did well with Mahan, but they just ran into the Euro's strongest pairing in fourball.

If you are talking about taking 'intangibles' into consideration along with the stats indicating the player's current 'average' game, I'd absolutely agree. I just don't think it should trump let alone outweigh basic level of play.

Edited September 7, 2016 by natureboy

[neophyte]

If a player can't produce a winning record in 3 ryder cups he shouldn't play.   All he does is put points on the European side of the scoreboard.

We have used 3 of the greatest stroke play players of today and each one has had total losing records.  What would our Ryder cup record be if Tiger, Phil and Jim had each one produced one more win point than losses each year. Transfer three points from the european score to the American side. 

[boogielicious]

8 hours ago, neophyte said:

If a player can't produce a winning record in 3 ryder cups he shouldn't play.   All he does is put points on the European side of the scoreboard.

We have used 3 of the greatest stroke play players of today and each one has had total losing records.  What would our Ryder cup record be if Tiger, Phil and Jim had each one produced one more win point than losses each year. Transfer three points from the european score to the American side. 

I see your point. But consider this. The Ryder Cup is an exhibition match. That is really how it started. Do you want to see the biggest names in golf in the exhibition or some less prominent players that may do better in one cup because they may be playing better at the moment? I think the viewing public wants to see the big names.