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Vinsk

NCAA Football 2019

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19 minutes ago, klineka said:

No argument from me about LSU, they are a very very good team and have played a stronger schedule and have better wins than OSU. But it is factually inaccurate to claim that Clemson is a higher level of football team this season.

Which is the bulk of my comments. Why Clemson? because aside from their botched game against USC they show to be a better football team. Maybe you guys never played football and just don’t get it. And that’s fine. You don’t see the speed/ dynamics/ field play. You see TOP, 3rd down conversions and micro math. I don’t believe anywhere on this site it’s considered trolling to make a prediction on a team and it’s outcome.

OSU will get humiliated once again. I have every right to say that and you’re getting butt hurt over that is your own issue. It’s just football. Lighten up.

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2 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I don’t believe anywhere on this site it’s considered trolling to make a prediction on a team and it’s outcome.

It becomes borderline trolling though when you make predictions or claims over and over and refuse/can't back them up with facts. 

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

You don’t see the speed/ dynamics/ field play.

Against who? Charlotte? Wofford? Wow some real tough games there for Clemson. 

So let's break this down. You are saying that Clemson has better speed, dynamics, field play and they have shown to you to be a better football team, even though they have performed WORSE than OSU across the entire season while playing weaker opponents as a whole than OSU has played? 

That doesn't make sense to me. Across the majority of a season, if Clemson did have better speed, dynamics, and field play than OSU, shouldn't they have performed much better than OSU has considering Clemson has played a much weaker schedule?

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3 minutes ago, klineka said:

So let's break this down. You are saying that Clemson has better speed, dynamics, field play and they have shown to you to be a better football team, even though they have performed WORSE than OSU across the entire season while playing weaker opponents as a whole than OSU has played? 

Exactly. And this was identical as before except OSU had a STRONGER team than this year and they got blitzed 38-0.

No doubt Clemson has had a miserable schedule. But FAU, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, NW? Seriously? That’s 7 games SEVEN! Total garbage. And your OSU SOS was from the start of the season and has sense tanked due to PSU, Wis, and Minn all losing. So get off your SOS talk....OSU’s has worsened week after week. All the teams you have a clutch on to call your OSU a strong SOS have lost now and that SOS is now vanilla pudding.

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33 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Exactly.

That defies logic. 

33 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

And your OSU SOS was from the start of the season and has sense tanked due to PSU, Wis, and Minn all losing. 

Nope, they're updated on a weekly basis


NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

 

39 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

All the teams you have a clutch on to call your OSU a strong SOS have lost now and that SOS is now vanilla pudding.

That doesn't change the fact that OSU's schedule is still tougher than Clemson's, and OSU is performing better against tougher teams. Those are facts that have been proven to be true.

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56 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Which is the bulk of my comments. Why Clemson? because aside from their botched game against USC they show to be a better football team. Maybe you guys never played football and just don’t get it. And that’s fine. You don’t see the speed/ dynamics/ field play.

Yea, that is the most outrageous statement of them all. 

Three year totals from 2016 thru 2018 recruiting
Alabama - 11 Five Stars, 45 Four Stars - with an average 92.5 rating
OSU - 9 Five Stars, 51 Four Stars - with an average 93.4 rating
LSU - 4 Five Star, 42 Four Stars - with an average 90.1 rating
Clemson - 8 Five Stars, 26 Four Stars - With an average 91.9 rating

Besides Alabama, OSU has recruited the 2nd best over the past 3 seasons. So, tell me again how they don't have speed, dynamics, field play (what ever the f@#$ that means). 

To say that OSU doesn't have speed is stupid. OSU's average player rating on defense is 93.4 with their backups at 95.0. On Offense the average is 91.7 starting and 93.0 for their backups. This team is talented, and has depth. 

Bill Connelly wrote an article on ESPN, 

Quote

Ohio State's current SP+ rating is plus-37.2, meaning the Buckeyes are 37.2 points better than the average FBS team at the moment. They are 4.2 points ahead of even the No. 2 team; this 37.2 rating grades out in the 99.5 percentile.

The 99.5 percentile is "elitist of the elite" territory. The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers were at 99.5, the 1993 FSU Seminoles and 2001 Miami Hurricanes were 99.4. The Buckeyes are fourth in offensive SP+, and the defense, so justifiably maligned last season, ranks first....

This team is damn near bulletproof, and its schedule has been harder than you might think. While Penn State is Ohio State's first opponent ranked in the SP+ top 10, the Buckeyes have already dispatched of many other teams that could give an elite squad a challenge on the right day: No. 15 Wisconsin (38-7), No. 20 Indiana (51-10), No. 29 Cincinnati (42-0), No. 40 Michigan State (34-10). Their SP+ strength of schedule ranking (which I defined in more detail earlier this week) is currently 59th -- not as high as LSU's (15th), Georgia's (24th) or Alabama's (39th) but ahead of Oklahoma's (70th) or Clemson's (93rd).

His explanation on Resume 

Quote

Résumé SP+ compares your actual output to what would be expected of the average top-five team (per SP+). It says, "the average top-five team would enjoy a win percentage of X against your schedule, and an average scoring margin of Y," then compares your averages (with a 50-point cap on blowouts) to expectation.

Clemson's schedule has indeed been absurdly weak. The average top-five team -- in this case, a team with the average ratings of Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, Clemson and Georgia -- would, over a long period of time, enjoy a 0.952 win percentage against the teams Clemson has played. That ranks 93rd in SP+ SOS, barely ahead of schedules such as Memphis' (98th) or UCF's (103rd).

However, Clemson's performance against this schedule has been exceptional, even with the early-season glitches. An average top-five team would have a scoring margin of plus-31.9 against Clemson's 11 opponents. Again capping blowouts at 50 points (meaning, anything over 50 points is deemed a 50-point win), Clemson's scoring margin is plus-35, 3.1 points higher. The Tigers are one of only three teams with a positive differential.

Top 12 teams, per Résumé SP+

1. Ohio State (+10.4 points per game above expected scoring margin, No. 59 SOS)
2. Clemson (+3.1, No. 93 SOS)
3. Alabama (+1.2, No. 39 SOS)
4. LSU (-2.1, No. 15 SOS)
5. Georgia (-4.3, No. 24 SOS)
6. Wisconsin (-5.6, No. 17 SOS)
7. Penn State (-5.7, No. 30 SOS)
8. Florida (-5.9, No. 9 SOS)
9. Utah (-6.0, No. 65 SOS)
10. Auburn (-7.4, No. 2 SOS)
11. Oregon (-7.9, No. 45 SOS)
12. Oklahoma (-8.6, No. 70 SOS)

Basically, LSU has the 15th toughest SOS. SOS being what would the winning % be of a top 5 team against your schedule. The reason why OSU is higher is because an average top 5 team would average 10 points less per game in scoring margin than what OSU did. LSU actually has averaged 2.1 points less in scoring margin that your average top 5 team would do against their schedule. 

Example, Lets say that against LSU schedule the average scoring margin is 28 points, that means LSU had a scoring margin of 25.9 points. Lets say against LSU Schedule the average top 5 team would have a scoring margin of 30 points, OSU has average 10.4 points higher than that!.

That is where having different perspectives matters. 

Bill's take on why SOS is overrated, 

Quote

We laud teams that play big, bold schedules and we have all heard the words "scheduling intent" come out of the mouths of CFP committee members. But you know what tends to happen when you play a bunch of really good teams? You lose games...

Playing nobody is a pretty good way to go through life if you ask me....

@Vinsk, Prove that Strength of Schedule actually gives you an advantage. What is the measurable impact, give me a value. You believe because LSU has a tougher SOS that they will trounce OSU, back that up with historical data and give me a measurable value to SOS. Don't give me a team here or there, because there could be a lot of other teams that have high SOS, but never end up doing well at all. 

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1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

Exactly. And this was identical as before except OSU had a STRONGER team than this year and they got blitzed 38-0.

I don't know how you can conclude that this is a weaker Ohio State team than the 2016 team.

This year's Buckeyes look like one of the best defensive teams we've seen in years. Heck. they are giving up 9.8 points per game and it would have been less than that if they hadn't played the JV team for the second half against Rutgers.

Offensively, it's not even close. I really liked JT Barett, but Justin Fields is so far beyond him its not even funny. The balance between the rushing and passing game is so good, no defense can just take one thing away.

 

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You guys were the ones who got all excited about OSU’s SOS, not me. Again you’re trying to cover the reality in dense charts and micro stastistics. Hell you're even now thinking  OSU should be ranked about LSU? Why?

 

Guys please stop with your hypocritical (who cares about past, noW show me historical data) dialogue.

LSU has played and beaten 4 ranked teams . Two of them top 10. What is your argument against that?

OSU: Has beaten two ranked teams currently none of them top ten.

LSU has beaten the toughest defense in the country who was just ranked #1. Along with Florida. Auburn and Texas.

It’s that simple giys. We can’t put every team under a Vegas microscope. If so they’re wouldn’t be fans, Just analyzers reporting the outcomes.     
LSU HAS PLAYED AND DEFEATES MUCH MORE STRONGER TEAMS THAN OSU HAS. 
Cincinatti is not a power win. The committee isn’t impressed with that. Wisconsin has lost their shine and now PSU has lost, and Minnesota. 
 

The only stat you guys keep coming back to is how impressively OSU has beaten their cupcakes.

 

4 minutes ago, mcanadiens said:

JV team for the second half against Rutgers.

OSU has played JV teams 7/10. Stats can look reall pretty 

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5 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

LSU HAS PLAYED AND DEFEATES MUCH MORE STRONGER TEAMS THAN OSU HAS. 

Very fortunately they actually allow four teams to play in a playoff, instead of just crowning LSU champion right now.

 

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7 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

LSU HAS PLAYED AND DEFEATES MUCH MORE STRONGER TEAMS THAN OSU HAS. 

And OSU has played and defeated much stronger teams than Clemson has, but you still think Clemson would solidly beat OSU.

You can't have it both ways man, you're using LSU's wins as a reason why you think they are a better team than OSU, but you aren't using that same logic when comparing OSU and Clemson.

Be consistent.

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3 minutes ago, klineka said:

And OSU has played and defeated much stronger teams than Clemson has, but you still think Clemson would solidly beat OSU.

You can't have it both ways man, you're using LSU's wins as a reason why you think they are a better team than OSU, but you aren't using that same logic when comparing OSU and Clemson.

Be consistent.

You just don’t get it do you? Celmson is the National Champ. I’m not a Clemson fan at all. It’s a vibe, nothing more. But that vibe has been right before. Saying that last years results don’t mean anything is an asinine statement in the NCAA. Many players have come back as well as coaches . The playing styles are the same, their Individual strengths are there ((QB)).  You seem like the find of fan who would love to lose to Clemson then go around pandering your charts saying how much better OSU is. Give it a rest. LSU or Clemson will beat OSU. They’re better teams. 

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2 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

You just don’t get it do you? 

I get it perfectly well. Your opinion about how Clemson compares to Ohio State is illogical and ignores statistics and facts.

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2 hours ago, Vinsk said:

FAU, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska, NW? Seriously? That’s 7 games SEVEN!

I don't think anyone will argue that those are 6 (😛) really powderpuff schools and would be a great lineup if one just wanted to guarantee a bowl game...... 

Big 10 does have a disproportionate number of powderpuffs in the conference, but their good teams are decent enough a test.  unfortunately they don't play everyone in the conference and this year's draw wasn't very flattering.  I'd posit this is typical of the other 3 power conferences though, just more exagerated.  Part of a big winning records is winning the easy ones along with winning against better teams.

But I can't reject them because of that (history aside) - I can only conclude that there isn't any data to be certain.  We'll find out in the semi's one way or the other (I think this year is different and they get to the finals......).  I can only say that they are a very good team that will have to work hard as I don't think they are being prepared as much as could be or as much as the others.

Edited by rehmwa

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17 minutes ago, klineka said:

I get it perfectly well. Your opinion about how Clemson compares to Ohio State is illogical and ignores statistics and facts.

Exactly and I concede to that the same as I did in December 2016. 

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1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

You guys were the ones who got all excited about OSU’s SOS, not me. Again you’re trying to cover the reality in dense charts and micro stastistics.

At the time of the comments, we were refuting that OSU's SOS was horrible when at the time it was very similar to LSU, Alabama and way better then Clemson.  As the season goes on, this changes. 

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

Hell you're even now thinking  OSU should be ranked about LSU? Why?

Depends on how you want to rank them. 

1. By who you have beaten, with out taking into account much in the way of dominance, then LSU deserves to be #1. 
2. Taking into dominance, strength of schedule, etc.. there are a lot of metrics that predict really well how a team is performing all of which are adjusted for opponents. 

The primary reason why I rank OSU over LSU is because OSU has been that dominant. No matter how much you think OSU's schedule is trash, they have dominated in such a way that it makes up the difference. 

I'll put it this way, right now OSU has the chance to have the highest scoring margin over the past 17 years. The only other team over that time to break 40 scoring margin is Florida State in 2013. 

Here is FSU's schedule that year, Pittsburgh, Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Maryland, Clemson (#3 at the time), NC State, Miami (FL) (Ranked 7th at the time), Syracuse, Idaho, Florida, and played Duke in the conference championship game. Not a murderers row of teams there. They went on to beat a 12-1 Auburn team. That Miami team ended up 9-4. The ACC conference ended up with only 3 ranked teams, and Duke was ranked at 23rd. If you want to find a comparable situation, this is it. 

I would put stock more into the fact that they are playing at an ELITE level by all metrics. 

There is a reason why very few teams even have a scoring margin of over 30 at the end of a season, it's tough to do no matter what schedule you have. 

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

LSU has played and beaten 4 ranked teams . Two of them top 10. What is your argument against that?

There is no argument. I am not refuting they did that. 

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

LSU has beaten the toughest defense in the country who was just ranked #1. Along with Florida. Auburn and Texas.

Umm, Alabama wasn't ranked #1, Ohio State has been ranked #1. The college football playoff polls supersede the idiotic AP or Coaches Polls. 

Also, Alabama didn't have the #1 defense. 

Alabama's Defensive Rankings -> 6th (SP+), 27th (total defense), 12th (scoring defense), 8th (FEI Rankings). I would say they are a top 10 defense, but stop over stating Alabama to support your argument. 

I agree, LSU has played very good football. 

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

LSU HAS PLAYED AND DEFEATES MUCH MORE STRONGER TEAMS THAN OSU HAS. 

I agree they have. My opinion on this has changed after the past two weeks. 

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

Cincinatti is not a power win. The committee isn’t impressed with that. Wisconsin has lost their shine and now PSU has lost, and Minnesota. 

How do you know what the play off committee thinks? Are you in the room? 

The playoff committee had Cincinnati at #17th, SP+ has them at 29th. Clearly the committee values them more than what their metrics say. Yep, Wisconsin is at #14th, still better than 89% of other teams. Also, they are properly ranked, SP+ has them ranked at 13th. Penn state is kinda were they should be, ranked 7th in SP+, and ranked around 9th by the committee. 

Here is how I think OSU would do against LSU's schedule. This is based on taking how well OSU played against their opponents SP+ ranking and comparing it to LSU's opponents SP+. I did the same for LSU versus OSU's schedule. 

OSU V. LSU OPPONENTS     LSU V. OSU OPPONENTS  
Ga. Southern W 66-0   Fla. Atlantic W 61-24
@ Texas W 45-17   17 Cincinnati W 37-13
Northwestern St. W 75-0   @ Indiana W 44-18
@ Vanderbilt W 52-3   Miami (Ohio) W 49-6
Utah St. W 45-7   @ Nebraska W 44-21
10 Florida W 38-14   Michigan St. W 29-14
@ Mississippi St. W 45-10   @ Northwestern W 40-6
16 Auburn W 33-13   14 Wisconsin W 25-21
@ 5 Alabama W 38-33   Maryland W 49-17
@ Mississippi W 65-17   @ Rutgers W 46-3

I think these are very reasonable assessment.  

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Who does Clemson have to play to get into the playoff?  Who does Ohio State have to play to get into the playoff?  I think Georgia and LSU would rather play either of those two than having to play each other.  The 4 best teams right now are:

Ohio State                                                                                                                                                                                  Clemson                                                                                                                                                                                          LSU                                                                                                                                                                                                            Georgia

 I hesitate to put Georgia in the mix, but they are there.  Anyone else is a distant 5th or 6th that won't beat any of the top 4.  You can throw out all the stats and numbers because each team will have a month to prepare, get back some injured players, and in many ways be a different team.  One thing I believe is a given....Your defense will not win any of these games for you (that is why Georgia can't win it all with a pretty good D but their Offense is just not gonna put up enough points to beat the high octane Offenses they would face)....the difference between these teams may just come down to special teams.  A dropped punt, a missed FG, a poor punt...a long drive at end of game against any opponents gassed D line to win 51-49.... 

Oregon, Utah, and BAMA just don't belong in the discussion....

Anyhow, this is all speculation and prejudicial viewpoints....we'll see in a few more weeks who gets ranked what and why...

Edited by Osnola
spelling

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3 minutes ago, Osnola said:

You can throw out all the stats and numbers because each team will have a month to prepare, get back some injured players, and in many ways be a different team. 

Nonsense. If one team is hands down better than another team and has faster, stronger, and more skilled players, that team will still win the majority of the team even if both teams have 2-3 months to prepare.

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1 hour ago, klineka said:

Nonsense. If one team is hands down better than another team and has faster, stronger, and more skilled players, that team will still win the majority of the team even if both teams have 2-3 months to prepare.

Well, wouldn't that be pretty much true in everything...However, I think South Carolina beat Georgia, and that one event would make your general statement false....Georgia probably does have faster, stronger and more skilled players than South Carolina....and yes, better coaches help also.  So, which team in the top 4 is better than the others, has faster, stronger and more skilled players?  On any given day, I don't think there is an ass hairs difference between the top 4..

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