NCAA Football 2021

[klineka]

Thoughts on the rankings?

Georgia tops first CFP rankings release, followed by Alabama, Michigan State and Oregon

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Coach Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs, fresh off their win over the Florida Gators on Saturday, are No. 1 in the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, announced on ESPN Tuesday night, followed by...

IMO I think Alabama and MSU should be flipped, I'm ok with Alabama being ahead of OSU for the moment based on the SOS argument.

Oregon should be 5th or even 6th, the PAC-12 is BAD this season. I read a couple articles earlier in the day yesterday that were trying to predict where each team was going to be ranked, and some had them ranked as low as 9th. The PAC-12 is 9-16 in nonconference games against FBS opponents this season, only Conference USA and MAC have worse nonconference records right now. PAC-12 as a whole also has 2 losses to FCS schools, which are reasons why Oregon's SOS is like 20+ spots worse than OSU's. 

I think they placed wayyy too much weight in the head to head matchup. It's not like the two teams have been equal the rest of the season outside of that game. OSU has been significantly more dominant versus more difficult opponents (OSU is winning by an average of 33ppg compared to 15 ppg for Oregon)

On offense:

YDS/G - OSU 547.6 (1st), Oregon 443.1 (34th)

PPG - OSU 47.3 (1st), Oregon 36.1 (23rd)

On defense: 

YDS/G OSU 355.8 (49th), Oregon 392.5 (69th)

PPG - OSU 19.3 (19th), Oregon 23.3 (50th)

So Oregon has a worse offense and a worse defense while playing weaker opponents, with a significantly lower average margin of victory, struggled in 2 of their last 3 weeks with 2 wins by a combined 10 points over teams with combined records of 8-9, lost to an unranked team who is 3-5 overall, yet the committee still thinks they are a better team right now than Ohio State? That's ridiculous IMO. 

Granted it's not likely going to matter all that much since OSU still has to play MSU and Michigan, both MSU and OSU control their own destiny, but the interesting one for the committee would be if both Oregon and Oklahoma run the table and win their conferences, would they really put a 1 loss PAC-12 champ in the #4 spot over an undefeated Big12 champ? Based on how the rankings appear right now that seems to be the case. Not sure I agree with that either.

 

[saevel25]

There are multiple ways to look at this. 

1. Unbeaten teams at the top no matter what 
2. If you have a loss to a team that is in the top 25, then you can compare them to zero loss teams, or other one loss teams, based on quality wins
3. Pure metrics rankings, where they factor in strength of opponent, and how dominant you were against your schedule. 

So this... 

1. Georgia, OU, Cincy, MSU, Wake Forest, UTSA, Ohio St., Alabama, Michigan, ND, Oregon
2. Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Mich. St., OU, Michigan, Cincy, Ok. St., Baylor, Ohio St. *You can mix around everyone after Mich. St. 
3. Georgia, Alabama, Oh. St. Michigan, Cincy, OU, Auburn, Miss., Florida, Clemson, ND, Texas A&M, Penn State

If you kind of take a bit from everything for a top 10....

Georgia, Alabama, Oh. State, OU, Cincy, Michigan, Oregon, MSU, ND, Wake Forest

 

[Vinsk]

Cincinnati will get blown out once they play any of the deserving teams in the top five. Also, not sure why so many think OSU vs Nebraska is a an upset watch game. Based on OSU performing how? What have they been doing? Silly argument. OSU by 14+.

[Vinsk]

On 11/3/2021 at 8:55 AM, klineka said:

Oklahoma run the table and win their conferences, would they really put a 1 loss PAC-12 champ in the #4 spot over an undefeated Big12 champ?

Right. Can’t say I find that sensible at all.

 

On 11/3/2021 at 8:55 AM, klineka said:

yet the committee still thinks they are a better team right now than Ohio State? That's ridiculous IMO. 

Totally agree. This is where more than just metrics took place. OSU lost to Oregon, and that’s really their only blemish. Oregon lost to Stanford, which is an utter disgrace. An undefeated Big12 team has four 1-loss teams above them? And WF is one spot below OU? I think their rankings are a bit perplexing.

[saevel25]

37 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Also, not sure why so many think OSU vs Nebraska is a an upset watch game. Based on OSU performing how? What have they been doing? Silly argument. OSU by 14+.

OSU by 14 is not that big of a spread in college football. Blowout to me is 21 or more by the third quarter and maintains it. Scoring with under 2 minutes to make it 21 is not a blowout to me. 

Nebraska is decent. The Illinois loss is bad. Loss to OU by 7, Loss to MSU by 3 in OT, Loss to Mich by 7, Loss Minnesota (who looks decent now) by 7, Loss to Purdue (who is also decent) by 5. 

Nebraska has almost the worst special teams in the country. I think there was a stat at some point that their special teams cost them like 21 points, and at that time all their losses were by less than that total. 

They have missed 6 FG this year, so there is 18 points. The would account for the OU + MSU + Mich games. 

That is why SP+ has them ranked 25th!!! With 6 Losses!!!! The next 6 loss team on the list is Indiana at 65th. 

There has been a better shot than most years for Nebraska to knock off OSU. Emotional win for OSU over PSU. On the road in Nebraska. Nebraska has played every good team to with in 1 score. 

I am sure Day is pissed at OSU's red-zone performance and the O-line performance. I suspect this offense will be on point today. Which is probably a bad sign for Nebraska. It will be interesting to see how Day handles a team after a very physical close game against a conference rival. 

45 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Cincinnati will get blown out once they play any of the deserving teams in the top five. 

You mean Cincinnati that lost to Georgia by 3 last year? 

I would put it past Cincinnati to give any team a game this year. They are 2-3 in bowl games the past 3 years. They have only lost like 2 games at most each of the last 3 seasons. I understand the competition they played. 

If they play their type of game, I have Georgia +12, OSU +10, Alabama +10, Michigan +5, OU +3. If things get out of hand, of course the top 3 could beat them by 21. I do not think Cincy has the firepower to win by double digits over those teams. It is a close win, a close loss, or a blowout loss. 

 

[Vinsk]

20 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

You mean Cincinnati that lost to Georgia by 3 last year? 

Pretty tired of hearing that. That was last year. Means zero right now. And motivation means so much more than what people give credit to. Georgia had zero interest or motivation in that game. How can you place emphasis on what Cincinnati did a year ago but then say OSU is a better team that played Oregon a month ago? 
 

 

24 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

OSU by 14 is not that big of a spread in college football. Blowout to me is 21 or more by the third quarter and maintains it.

I didn’t say OSU will blow out Nebraska. But winning by 14+ ( I did include +) to me isn’t an upset alert. Nebraska is a great team when they play a Big10 team, but against Big12 they’re considered mediocre. That’s kinda the sentiment that isn’t really fair. 

[Vinsk]

Poor Nebraska. I’m sure they’re excited to have survived the 1st quarter. But OSU is seldom a 1st quarter team. Hell, a first half team. Come 3rd quarter OSU will remind Nebraska why they’re 3-6.

[Vinsk]

And down goes MSU! Love it! Get outta there MSU…This makes the OSU/MSU game an elimination game! Awesome!

[saevel25]

6 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Poor Nebraska. I’m sure they’re excited to have survived the 1st quarter. But OSU is seldom a 1st quarter team. Hell, a first half team. Come 3rd quarter OSU will remind Nebraska why they’re 3-6.

Yea, that didn't happen right!

Told ya that Nebraska is a good team. The best 6 loss team in history. Plays a tough 4 quarters of football. Losses to 4 top 20 teams (3 of which in the top 10) by a combined score of 22 points, or 5.5 points per game! 

Man, their special teams is garbage. Their punter either kicks it 50+ yards, or shanks its 45 degrees. Their kicker just can't make a field goal. 1/3, and all 3 from a very makable range. 

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

And down goes MSU! Love it! Get outta there MSU…This makes the OSU/MSU game an elimination game! Awesome!

I kind of felt like MSU wasn't a top 10 team even being undefeated. Great RB, good WR, meh defense. You just don't want to go to Purdue when you are a top 5 teams. They have like 17 wins versus top 5 teams when Purdue is unranked! They are like top 5 in college football history with the most wins versus a top 5 team. Purdue is good. 

My hope, is that the B10 crushes it in the bowl season. I want them to confirm they are a very good conference that just beat the crap out of each other 😛 

[Vinsk]

2 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Man, their special teams is garbage.

You definitely called that right. Awful.

3 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I kind of felt like MSU wasn't a top 10 team even being undefeated

Yeah I agree. So Cincinnati squeaks by Tulsa by 8pts, MSU loses….what do you think the ranking will look like? What if Oregon loses to Washington?

[ChetlovesMer]

36 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Man, their special teams is garbage. Their punter either kicks it 50+ yards, or shanks its 45 degrees. Their kicker just can't make a field goal. 1/3, and all 3 from a very makable range. 

Somebody said he's missed an average of 2 kicks per game. That's a big deal when you are losing by an average of 5.5 points per game. 

[Vinsk]

45 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The best 6 loss team in history.

Lol. Funny thing is …I think that’s actually true, literally.

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

What if Oregon loses to Washington?

And, Oregon is losing to Washington at this moment, 9-3.  Though the moment is early.

[saevel25]

It looked like some teams just didn't want to be in the top-10 of the CFP rankings. 

MSU goes down to Purdue. Though, Purdue is a Goliath killer apparently...

You do not want to go to Purdue being ranked in the top-5. Some evil sorcery goes on out there!

If I had to guess what this weeks CFP Ranking will be for the top-10

1. Georgia
2. Alabama (though, I could see them being dropped to 3, but the narrative is never a bad performance against a bad team, but a something like LSU is a scrappy opponent). 
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Cincinnati
7. OU
8. ND
9. Texas A&M
10. OK. State

Man, so many teams lost this week. 8 TEAMS!! lost who were ranked in the top-25 of the CFP poll. WTF!!!

As for my Buckeyes, their O-line needs to get better in run blocking up the middle. When a dynamic RB is held to 4-yards per carry, with his longest run of 24-ish yards coming late in the 4th quarter means that there was shit blocking. 

[WilliamB]

Maybe Purdue should be ranked much higher? 

Edited November 7, 2021 by WilliamB
typo

[saevel25]

On 11/7/2021 at 3:04 PM, saevel25 said:

If I had to guess what this weeks CFP Ranking will be for the top-10

1. Georgia
2. Alabama (though, I could see them being dropped to 3, but the narrative is never a bad performance against a bad team, but a something like LSU is a scrappy opponent). 
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan
6. Cincinnati
7. OU
8. ND
9. Texas A&M
10. OK. State

Lets see how I did...

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Cincy
6. Michigan
7. MSU
8. OU
9. ND
10. OK State

I guess they thought the loss to Purdue wasn't that bad to drop MSU out of the top 10. I wasn't to far off. I was kind of surprised that Mich didn't jump Cincy after Cincy struggled in their game this past week.

 

 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

Lets see how I did...

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Cincy
6. Michigan
7. MSU
8. OU
9. ND
10. OK State

I guess they thought the loss to Purdue wasn't that bad to drop MSU out of the top 10. I wasn't to far off. I was kind of surprised that Mich didn't jump Cincy after Cincy struggled in their game this past week.

 

 

Agree. I’m a little suspicious they moved OSU up but I figure more due to MSU losing and poor performances by other teams. I’m certain had OU played Nebraska and won as Ohio did they’d drop them down one ( as the AP did) or keep their spot. They want a B1G team in there for sure so they’ll make sure that happens. 😄

[saevel25]

20 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Agree. I’m a little suspicious they moved OSU up but I figure more due to MSU losing and poor performances by other teams. I’m certain had OU played Nebraska and won as Ohio did they’d drop them down one ( as the AP did) or keep their spot. They want a B1G team in there for sure so they’ll make sure that happens. 😄

I think it is more than no one really stood out on Saturday. MSU had to drop. If OSU didn't overtake Oregon, and if Cincy or Michigan couldn't pass OSU, then just move them up one.

I am not sure about that. If OU was ranked 4th, and MSU lost. I don't see them moving Cincy above them.