World Cup 2022

[woodzie264]

Lots of skill demonstrated by one of the legends of PK history:

I tried to resist, but couldn’t. 

[ChetlovesMer]

3 minutes ago, iacas said:

I just messaged one of my students, a goalkeeper for a professional soccer team… and he said that they know the history (i.e.he likes to go high right), but it's just guesswork. He called it "a game of rock-paper-scissors with way worse odds" because even if you guess right and go early, you still don't have the time to get to a well-placed shot.

ESPN had the new coach from the Columbus Crew, Wilfred Nancy, on and he was talking about this. He mentioned they try to keep "a book" on players. 
That helps them "guess" which way that player might go. In that way it's similar to a lot of sports... i.e. Pitcher so-in-so starts with a breaking pitch on 65% of the hitters... Football team X begins a drive with a running play 63% of the time....  etc... 

He also mentioned that some players try to use body language. But that can be hard because that can be a double cross. If the player is looking left he may go right, but he may also double bluff and actually go left. The goalie may to the same thing. Lean a bit left to make the kicker think he thinks he's going that way, which he may be or he may be bluffing. The coach said he encourages his guys not to use body language because then it turns into a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors. He prefers to go with tendencies. He said especially in big games as he believes players will fall back on what they are most successful with. 

BTW - He also said he likes the system of settling ties with PK's and gave a list of reasons why. It was pretty informative. 

[GolfLug]

My understanding is that PKs were chosen to end a game precisely because it was the closest thing to a coin toss besides an actual coin toss itself. A definitive way of ending the game much sooner than an indefinite extension of ET. But it is as lame as a coin toss. So anti-climactic.  

There is skill involved in free throws and 8-foot putts too. But the day NBA finals ties start going to FT shoot outs or the US open ties to 8-foot putt outs I am going to die. I am going to just freaking die..  

I am a fair-weather 'soccer' fan (that too because of my son's interest) so I am not going to get into debating the intricacies of skill/luck of PKs but the WC is entertainment of the highest order by all accounts and the PK seems lame to a huge amount of populous. There's gotta be a better way to decide at least something as important as the damn WC.

How about corner kicks? Three a side or something. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by GolfLug

[iacas]

2 hours ago, GolfLug said:

There is skill involved in free throws and 8-foot putts too. But the day NBA finals ties start going to FT shoot outs or the US open ties to 8-foot putt outs I am going to die. I am going to just freaking die..

Correct. There’s skill, but it’s a dramatic subset and luck plays an outsized role.

[Vinsk]

If you have a dumb keeper who’s just gonna try and ‘guess’ which way to dive, then luck plays a large role. But that’s asinine. If you plan to strike the ball hard and go to the low right side net and do so, even if the keeper guesses correctly it’s a goal. That’s skill and hardly any luck. Again, being a good PK shooter involves execution that isn’t a gimmie. It’s not mostly luck by any means. A poorly stricken shot that goes in is luck. Just like a shank that hits a tree and lands on the green. But PK are not mostly luck.

[chspeed]

 

15 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

If you have a dumb keeper who’s just gonna try and ‘guess’ which way to dive, then luck plays a large role. But that’s asinine. If you plan to strike the ball hard and go to the low right side net and do so, even if the keeper guesses correctly it’s a goal. That’s skill and hardly any luck. Again, being a good PK shooter involves execution that isn’t a gimmie. It’s not mostly luck by any means. A poorly stricken shot that goes in is luck. Just like a shank that hits a tree and lands on the green. But PK are not mostly luck.

I agree. I think for pros, the skill in PKs is largely mental. PKs have to do with the moment, the intimidation from the goalie, the mind games, etc. If you want to call in luck, then I would liken it to poker. Sure, the card in poker, which are random, matter. But there's so much more to it.

[iacas]

42 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

If you have a dumb keeper who’s just gonna try and ‘guess’ which way to dive, then luck plays a large role.

It's what they do, dude.

42 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

If you plan to strike the ball hard and go to the low right side net and do so, even if the keeper guesses correctly it’s a goal.

Which is exactly why they guess!

Let's say that if you shoot a 9 out of 10 or 10 out of 10 (I'm talking about a "grade") and you'll score even if the goalie guesses correctly… thing is, you only need a 6/10 if the goalie waits long enough to see where you're going and you're still going to score.

So by guessing early, they force you into executing really well… if they guess properly. If they don't guess properly, hell, a 2/10 shot might go in.

42 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

It’s not mostly luck by any means.

Yes, it is.

The majority of the net is open, and the goalie is going to go one direction or another.

42 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

A poorly stricken shot that goes in is luck.

That is also luck. That is not the ONLY type of shot that involves luck.

Put it this way: imagine five suspended hula hoops, and you're standing ten yards away. You have to throw a football through them. Any one, doesn't matter. Except one of the doors is going to shut just before you release the ball…

It's luck which one you pick and which one shuts.

If the operator waited until after you threw the ball to see which hoop you picked, they'd often be too late. So they pick early enough to stop even a decent (but not really fast) throw, and just hope they guess right enough times across a small sample size to matter.