2014 NCAA Football

[phan52]

The system is flawed, as it is weighted to the big conference champions. But, that being the case, they got it right. There is no way a one loss Big 10 Champ should not be in the final four. In fact, I would have seeded them #3 to set up a classic PAC12/Big 10 Rose Bowl.

[Golfingdad]

The system is flawed, as it is weighted to the big conference champions. But, that being the case, they got it right. There is no way a one loss Big 10 Champ should not be in the final four. In fact, I would have seeded them #3 to set up a classic PAC12/Big 10 Rose Bowl.

I disagree that they "got it right" but not in the sense that picking OSU was wrong, but rather, at the implication that there even was a wrong answer.

There was absolutely no "wrong" answer on this one.  All three teams had perfectly legitimate claims to that fourth spot and there isn't really any decent argument against any of the three.

That's just the way it's going to be when you are trying to choose between three deserving teams for one spot.

The bottom line, however, is that leaving a couple of really good teams out of a 4 team playoff is better than the previous version, which would have seen Oregon sitting on the outside looking in on an Alabama-FSU title game, and that was better still than the previous incarnation, which might have had Oregon playing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Alabama playing TCU in the Sugar Bowl and FSU playing Baylor in the Orange Bowl and then arguing afterwards which of those 3 winners deserved to be a National Champion.

[saevel25]

The bottom line, however, is that leaving a couple of really good teams out of a 4 team playoff is better than the previous version, which would have seen Oregon sitting on the outside looking in on an Alabama-FSU title game, and that was better still than the previous incarnation, which might have had Oregon playing Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Alabama playing TCU in the Sugar Bowl and FSU playing Baylor in the Orange Bowl and then arguing afterwards which of those 3 winners deserved to be a National Champion.

Lets take a look at what would be the 8 team playoff system,

Alabama versus Michigan State

Oregon versus Miss. State

Florida State versus TCU

Ohio State versus Baylor

2 Big10

2 Big12

2 SEC

1 ACC

1 Pac12

I would think Michigan State would be a 12 point underdog.

Miss State would probably be a 5-6 point underdog

TCU should be a 1-2 point favorite

Ohio state would be a 1-2 point favorite

I think those would be some really good games.

[ditchparrot19]

All three teams had perfectly legitimate claims to that fourth spot and there isn't really any decent argument against any of the three.

Yes, all three had strong claims, but there are equally legit arguments against all three:

Ohio State: By far the worst loss (by two TDs to middling Virginia Tech at home), plays in a weaker conference.

TCU: Not truly a conference champion, since it lost head-to-head to its co-titleist.

Baylor: A non-conference schedule that was weaker than nickel Kool-Aid, making a loss all but impossible; losing to a dangerous-but-not-great West Virginia squad.

It was six of one, half a dozen of the other no matter which way the committee turned.

[trickyputt]

A neat stat about Urban Meyer is that only four coaches have ever beaten him 2 times in a row. Thats pretty impressive. Of course Saban is one of them.

[trickyputt]

The most yards Alabama has surrendered to a running back this season were 79 on 21 carries by LSU's Leonard Fournette. Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott ran for 82 yards on 22 carries against Alabama.

[saevel25]

The most yards Alabama has surrendered to a running back this season were 79 on 21 carries by LSU's Leonard Fournette. Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott ran for 82 yards on 22 carries against Alabama.

Since the VT game, which looks like the wake up call for Ohio State this season. Ohio State has been dominant on rushing the ball.

Still Alabama will be the toughest test Ohio State has faced all year in the rushing game. They have and Adjusted Rushing Yards per game of 82.

Ohio State has faced the 2nd, 5th, 8th, 21st, 24th, and 33rd best Rushing Defenses in the nation. 4 out of the 5 of those games they averaged 158 rushing yards above the average given up by the opposing teams. Just a little rushing stat for you. They do it with not just one running back. They put in 3 guys in that backfield who can take it to the house on a busted play.  4 out of the 5 top rushers for Ohio State average over 6.5 yards per carry.

---

The last time Alabama faced and offense even remotely close to Ohio States they gave up 44 points to Auburn. Ohio State is a big step above Auburn in terms of offense ability.

Because I am an Ohio State fan. I am going to say Ohio State 38,  Alabama 27.

I think OSU will be able to keep the explosive plays from Cooper to a minimum. He will get his yards, but his yards per attempt will be lower than his average. I see Ohio State's front seven causing Alabama issues in the passing game. 20.5% of the time Ohio State has a Tackle for Loss, forced a fumble, or has defended a pass.

I just see Ohio State having 1 or 2 more scoring drives than Alabama. Alabama is only 67th in turn over margin at -0.08 per game. Ohio State is 19th at +0.69 per game. That is nearly one extra possession right there. Alabama is ranked really low in field position, Ohio State is best in the nation in field position. With how good Ohio State is on offense, you can not give them a short field.  If Alabama doesn't get the explosive plays I don't see them having more scoring opportunities than Ohio State.

Alabama has given up some big plays in the passing game, and Ohio State has two guys who can stretch the field deep, and Cardale Jones can flick the ball 40 yards with ease. I see those two receivers taking the top off the defense a few times for some big plays.

As for Oregon and Florida State. If Florida State can run the ball then they have a shot. If this gets to a shoot out, I think the Ducks have more fire power than Florida State. Still with a month to prepare, Oregon is known for not doing well in bowl games.

In the end I think it is too much Oregon, I am going with Oregon 45, Florida State 30

[ditchparrot19]

Because I am an Ohio State fan. I am going to say Ohio State 38,  Alabama 27.

Are you a betting man at all? For any reasonable wager, I'll take Alabama and half of that spread you're predicting, and I can't stand Nick Saban or his team. I detest Ohio State, too, but that's beside the point.

This ain't the Big Ten slate anymore.

[saevel25]

Are you a betting man at all? For any reasonable wager, I'll take Alabama and half of that spread you're predicting, and I can't stand Nick Saban or his team. I detest Ohio State, too, but that's beside the point.

This ain't the Big Ten slate anymore.

Not a betting man

[mcanadiens]

@saevel25 , you do strike me as quite the optimist, but keeping going. This pessimist could probably use more optimism in general and especially where this game is concerned.

[saevel25]

@saevel25, you do strike me as quite the optimist, but keeping going. This pessimist could probably use more optimism in general and especially where this game is concerned.

Why, I saw nothing this year from Alabama that scares me against Ohio State.

They have one great WR, the rest of them are good, but not stand outs. It clearly shows when Alabama's QB's is 10% more inaccurate with his other receivers than he is with Cooper.

They also don't have a great RB like in the past few years. They are good, but they are more a product of their O-line than anything. Alabama's O-line gets the job done blocking 47% of the time, that is top 15. Once they get the job done their RB's don't make people miss or don't get big play extra yardage.

Melvin Gordon 9.4 yards per opportunity if the Offensive Line does its job and blocks.

TJ Yeldon 3.5 yards per opportunity if the OL does its job and blocks

Their Defense is pretty stout. I posted before that Ohio State has basically rushed for about +150 yards above the average of the Rushing Defenses they faced. They have faced 6 top 25 rushing defenses. Still Alabama's Defense isn't disruptive, it is more stout, force you to go 10+ plays to score.

Alabama is only 28th in the nation in Tackles for Loss, Fumbles, or Passes Defended. They don't caused that many turnovers. They are only 44th in Sacks. Really they do not pressure the QB or cause too many big plays for loss. It isn't all time great defense.

With out a 2nd solid WR that their QB trusts. I see OSU doubling up Cooper and forcing him out of his favorite routes, and force Sims into some really tough throws. Ohio State's pass defense is ranked 10th in the nation.

With out a RB that can take it the distance, I don't see them breaking many long runs. They might have a few drives that are methodical and march down the field. Ohio State is ranked 7th in the nation in causing TFL, Fumbles, and Passes Defended. I see them being able to force a few more punts from Alabama than Alabama is out of Ohio State.

Just from the what I have seen in the Offense this year. Their ability to work at the same level with what ever QB they have out their. Just tells me that the pieces they have out their are really really good around their QB. Like I said, I see Ohio State having more scoring drives that Alabama will have.

Why should I worry? Usually

[mcanadiens]

I'm not saying you should worry @saevel25 . What I said was that I'd like to be more optimistic about this as you clearly are.

[ditchparrot19]

Why, I saw nothing this year from Alabama that scares me against Ohio State.

They have one great WR, the rest of them are good, but not stand outs. It clearly shows when Alabama's QB's is 10% more inaccurate with his other receivers than he is with Cooper.

They also don't have a great RB like in the past few years. They are good, but they are more a product of their O-line than anything. Alabama's O-line gets the job done blocking 47% of the time, that is top 15. Once they get the job done their RB's don't make people miss or don't get big play extra yardage.

Melvin Gordon 9.4 yards per opportunity if the Offensive Line does its job and blocks.

TJ Yeldon 3.5 yards per opportunity if the OL does its job and blocks

Their Defense is pretty stout. I posted before that Ohio State has basically rushed for about +150 yards above the average of the Rushing Defenses they faced. They have faced 6 top 25 rushing defenses. Still Alabama's Defense isn't disruptive, it is more stout, force you to go 10+ plays to score.

Alabama is only 28th in the nation in Tackles for Loss, Fumbles, or Passes Defended. They don't caused that many turnovers. They are only 44th in Sacks. Really they do not pressure the QB or cause too many big plays for loss. It isn't all time great defense.

With out a 2nd solid WR that their QB trusts. I see OSU doubling up Cooper and forcing him out of his favorite routes, and force Sims into some really tough throws. Ohio State's pass defense is ranked 10th in the nation.

With out a RB that can take it the distance, I don't see them breaking many long runs. They might have a few drives that are methodical and march down the field. Ohio State is ranked 7th in the nation in causing TFL, Fumbles, and Passes Defended. I see them being able to force a few more punts from Alabama than Alabama is out of Ohio State.

Just from the what I have seen in the Offense this year. Their ability to work at the same level with what ever QB they have out their. Just tells me that the pieces they have out their are really really good around their QB. Like I said, I see Ohio State having more scoring drives that Alabama will have.

Why should I worry? Usually

You're basing all of this on numbers, and numbers just aren't all that relevant once football teams take the field. All of Alabama's statistics, good or bad, were compiled against much tougher competition than Ohio State faced.

It's really about being able to whip the guy in front of you after the whistle blows.

I could end up being wrong – that's certainly happened in the past – but I don't believe Ohio State can prevail in enough of those match-ups to win the game.

[trickyputt]

I have watched 4 running backs for Alabama break out and go the distance multiple times this year. To make matters worse for the opponents, when Sims gets out of the pocket he is faster than most defensive players and is strong enough to hit them and knock them away when he goes the distance so I guess there are at least 5 good runners on the team. Even with talent, I cant recall seeing a huge back like Henry before, a fellow that brings his best in the second half, punishing a tiring defense. They run hard, most that are out with injury seem to have broken bones, so the force being used on the seems substantial. Jones and others also catch the long bombs that Sims can throw so accurately. I have seen many bombs thrown that have that beautiful trajectory nose diving down into a full speed receivers' hands. The 85% passing accuracy Sims displayed in the SEC championship simply wasn't all Cooper. Since the one mistake an opposing team can make is focusing on Cooper, it must cause headaches for the defensive backfield. The Bama offensive line outweighs the Ohio State OL, even though the Ohio State line average is around 300 lbs. Talk about big boy football! This game is going to be hard hitting. Thats an hour of pounding. The best conditioning will play a part, and Bama has that kind of conditioning due to the willingness of the players to meet after practice and practice some more, in conjunction with a strength coach that makes the energizer bunny look tired. This has gone on for years though. I found a pic that describes the idea of what the line design has historically aimed at design wise that show the weight of the OL being the same as the NY Giants in 2012. Urban knows this though, as his "young" line is almost the size of The Tide OL. Bama basically has had a number 1 recruiting class for the last 7 years. It is a phenomenon that will pass when Saban leaves, as he is getting up in years. I am glad to have seen this team play though. And I hope the standards Ohio State will find itself up against Jan 1 will help define the "Ohio State Dynasty" some say has started with Meyer.

[saevel25]

You're basing all of this on numbers, and numbers just aren't all that relevant once football teams take the field. All of Alabama's statistics, good or bad, were compiled against much tougher competition than Ohio State faced.

It's really about being able to whip the guy in front of you after the whistle blows.

I could end up being wrong – that's certainly happened in the past – but I don't believe Ohio State can prevail in enough of those match-ups to win the game.

I will mention this once, and take it for what it is worth. Majority of the stats I have shown are ADJUSTED for strength of opponent (schedule).

I am just showing that in areas of where stats can be collected and show certain strengths and weaknesses the gap isn't that big between the two teams.

Basically Ohio State might have played an easier schedule. They have beaten their opponents in such a convincing fashion it is enough to make up for it.

Does facing tough opponents help, yea. There might be a shock factor to it in some cases. Urban has been in tough games before and should have his team ready.

Jones and others also catch the long bombs that Sims can throw so accurately. I have seen many bombs thrown that have that beautiful trajectory nose diving down into a full speed receivers' hands. The 85% passing accuracy Sims displayed in the SEC championship simply wasn't all Cooper. Since the one mistake an opposing team can make is focusing on Cooper, it must cause headaches for the defensive backfield.

If focusing on Cooper causes so much trouble then why does he have 4x as many receptions as the next guy. One game does not make Sims' whole season. He's a 65% accuracy QB who is 70% accurate with Cooper and 60% accurate with the other WR.

Does that mean they can't all have a good game, no. It still I think it is more Cooper making Sims look good than Sims being that good. It is the Randy Moss effect in how ever QB he's played for has had better stats those years because of how much of a play maker he was.

I could be wrong, but just that completion percentage drop off is pretty significant for a QB. Most good college passing QB's need to be mid 60's to 70's on average. Having one guy at 70% tells me a lot about that WR making plays and getting open compared to the other guys. Especially when he has 4x as many receptions as the next WR.

Still in the end, I rather have 4 guys with similar receptions and yards per catch because who are you going to double team or stop.

The Bama offensive line outweighs the Ohio State OL, even though the Ohio State line average is around 300 lbs. Talk about big boy football! This game is going to be hard hitting. Thats an hour of pounding.

Ok, and when will Bama's OL go up against OSU's OL?

The reason why OSU's OL is around 300 lbs is because they like to be more athletic and get out in space and block down field.

Weight can help, but technique is more important, in the end if you have strength + technique and you are anywhere around 300-310 lbs then you will win a lot of battles up front if you have technique.

In the end the OL still has to get their hands on the DL player and keep a hold of them. 40 lbs doesn't mean much if they are just glancing the D-Lineman as they get past them.

The best conditioning will play a part, and Bama has that kind of conditioning due to the willingness of the players to meet after practice and practice some more, in conjunction with a strength coach that makes the energizer bunny look tired. This has gone on for years though. I found a pic that describes the idea of what the line design has historically aimed at design wise that show the weight of the OL being the same as the NY Giants in 2012. Urban knows this though, as his "young" line is almost the size of The Tide OL.

Alabama isn't the only program with resources and the ability to be innovative in training their players. Don't make it sound like Alabama is the only one that does those things. When you have a top level program it is more in the preparation during the week before the game, and the scheme that matter more.

I wouldn't claim that is a huge advantage. Each program has their little differences, but the top programs have shelled out a lot of money in the arms race known as college football facilities. OSU has one of the best facilities in the nation. As the same with Alabama. I am sure both staffs are very very good in what they want to achieve and how they train their players.

Bama basically has had a number 1 recruiting class for the last 7 years. It is a phenomenon that will pass when Saban leaves, as he is getting up in years. I am glad to have seen this team play though. And I hope the standards Ohio State will find itself up against Jan 1 will help define the "Ohio State Dynasty" some say has started with Meyer.

Luckily 3 of those years have already moved on to the next level or graduated. Football players only stay in the program for 4-5 years.

OSU has had the 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 7th in the past 4 years. Just saying, it isn't that big of a gap in terms of recruiting. Is there an edge, yea, maybe a few more guys who are two deep somewhere, but still OSU is one of the top 5 skilled teams in the nation. Not like they are hurting for talent.

If talent meant everything, then Alabama wouldn't have had a loss at all in the past 4 years.

This quote I liked a lot from Urban, "Talent will get you about 7 or 8 wins. Discipline will start pushing that to 9 ... when you get leadership that's when magic starts happening. It's when you start getting rings and some really cool things are happening to your team."

In the end I agree with you. It will be a hard hitting game. Two very good teams are going to give it their all. Two of the best coaches in the past 10 years, with two of the top 4 teams in the nation. Athletes all over the place. Both coaches know what it takes to win on the highest level. Both teams should be ready to go. Should be a lot of fun.

[ditchparrot19]

I will mention this once, and take it for what it is worth. Majority of the stats I have shown are ADJUSTED for strength of opponent (schedule).

My whole contention is that, whether raw or tweaked somehow, they're all worth very little (if anything at all) once the lights to go on. Numbers don't win head-to-head confrontations in the trenches – they never have and they never will. What's more, they're often very poor predictors of how those match-ups will play out.

We'll all know by the evening of Jan. 1 whether any of them were even remotely relevant.

[Gunther]

http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=11997738&src;=desktop I know, I'm whining now. Vegas would have favored both TCU and Baylor over OSU. Obviously, the games would have to be played, etc., etc., but this is a small dagger to the heart.

[saevel25]

My whole contention is that, whether raw or tweaked somehow, they're all worth very little (if anything at all) once the lights to go on. Numbers don't win head-to-head confrontations in the trenches – they never have and they never will. What's more, they're often very poor predictors of how those match-ups will play out.

We'll all know by the evening of Jan. 1 whether any of them were even remotely relevant.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-game-projections/

Using Strength of Schedule adjusted stats, they get about 77% of the games correct with their Projected Win Expectancy (PWE) equation. Against the spread they are 49.6%. Vegas is really really good , unless you are Ohio State who beats the spread by 63 points

You might want to take stats more seriously here. I am not saying they are the final say. They can shed light on different aspects of the game. I agree the players still have to play.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/story?storyId=11997738&src;=desktop

I know, I'm whining now. Vegas would have favored both TCU and Baylor over OSU.

Obviously, the games would have to be played, etc., etc., but this is a small dagger to the heart.

I heard about that. The primary thing is they still have no clue what Cardale Jones ability is to lead this team as a QB.

If Barrett was in their I doubt they would have TCU and Baylor as favorites.

They say teams that are favored have won 77% of the games this season. Off those 23% that where underdog wins, OSU has won both their games when they were underdogs. Just saying