DNC

[newtogolf]

8 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

How about we hack into the RNC's e-mail server and find out what party leadership really thinks about their voter base?

You could try but we use better security than HRC so good luck.  

Plus the democrats are the social justice warriors and politically correct, they're not supposed to use terms like Taco Bowls. 

[Gunther]

11 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Note, that projection shown is if the Election was held today, 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

This is still the Nov. 8th election based on what poles tell us about the Nov. 8th election

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Here is a projection taking into account The Polls, The economy, and historical trends

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Lots of data to chose from. 

 

True; honestly I don't put a lot of stock in Nate but I know that the lib punditry does so you can bet there is panic amongst the Dem elite, although they've probably learned their lesson and won't be communicating with each other via email about it, lol.

But what will happen because of this analysis

Just now, newtogolf said:

 

is they'll double down on stupid in their convention, come off more radical than they want to and ultimately turn off more voters, in the process.  

 

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, Gunther said:

True; honestly I don't put a lot of stock in Nate but I know that the lib punditry does so you can bet there is panic amongst the Dem elite, 

He's a pretty smart guy. Back when the race was tight between Obama and Hillary in 2008 he accurately called Obama would win by upwards of 15 points. 

In 2008 he was 49/50 in calling which state went for who. 
He predicted 34/37 senate seats in 2010
He predicted the GOP would pick up 54 seats in the house, the GOP picked up 63. 
He predicted the winner of 36 of the 37 Governor races in 2010
On the morning of the 2012 presidential election day he gave Obama a 90% chance of winning and accurately predicted each state in that election. 

The guy clearly has a good grasp on what to look for. I wouldn't take his predictions lightly. It's a very bad sign for Hillary that she's dropping in that prediction as of "now". Future projections still forecast her winning based on how polling tends to happen around the conventions, how the economy is doing, and other trends. 

Clearly, if she loses the minority vote she might be in big trouble. 

 

[Elmer]

I love how we are 3 pages into this and we have yet to hear 1 speech!
 

[newtogolf]

Here's the reality, no poll, talking head or political group can predict what's going to happen over the next 100 days that will influence the vote.  We have a situation where most people are voting against the candidate they don't want versus voting for the one they do.  

Both candidates are very volatile and could screw up their campaigns at any moment.  

I hope the dems enjoy their convention, I won't be watching or commenting.   

[Chilli Dipper]

15 minutes ago, newtogolf said:

You could try but we use better security than HRC so good luck.  

Plus the democrats are the social justice warriors and politically correct, they're not supposed to use terms like Taco Bowls. 

I'm not making apologies for marketing specialists, but that's what they do. Even I'm not cynical enough to get into marketing.

 

[Gunther]

2 hours ago, Elmer said:

I love how we are 3 pages into this and we have yet to hear 1 speech!
 

Because there is more mayhem at this point in the DNC process than in the whole convention last week.  

Holy cow, everything out of control in Philly.  People getting booed off the stage.  Even with the 4-mile wall the Dems built (wait, I thought walls didn't work?) to keep protestors out, they are making their voices heard even as the media is trying to shut them out.  

More impressive are the 1700 Bernie delegates inside.  This is gonna be unlike any convention we've ever seen.  I do truly hope, however, that violence doesn't mar it.

It's wonderful when corruption is discovered.

[DeadMan]

11 hours ago, Gunther said:

True; honestly I don't put a lot of stock in Nate but I know that the lib punditry does.

Really? I'm curious, what flaws do you see with his methodology to his general election predictions? He publishes it so everyone can see it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/. If you don't put a lot of stock in him, I'm sure you have some compelling reasons.

[saevel25]

15 hours ago, Gunther said:

More impressive are the 1700 Bernie delegates inside.  This is gonna be unlike any convention we've ever seen.  I do truly hope, however, that violence doesn't mar it.

From what I hear there is a lot of exaggeration by the media on how much booing is going on. 

It is a wild and crazy time. I am glad to see both parties getting reamed for their poor choices over the past decade. 

---

Some statements have already been checked for factness, 
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jul/25/fact-checking-opening-night-democratic-national-co/

 

 

[Elmer]

17 hours ago, Gunther said:

Because there is more mayhem at this point in the DNC process than in the whole convention last week.  

Holy cow, everything out of control in Philly.  People getting booed off the stage.  Even with the 4-mile wall the Dems built (wait, I thought walls didn't work?) to keep protestors out, they are making their voices heard even as the media is trying to shut them out.  

More impressive are the 1700 Bernie delegates inside.  This is gonna be unlike any convention we've ever seen.  I do truly hope, however, that violence doesn't mar it.

It's wonderful when corruption is discovered.

It should be mentioned and bring great concern, that while corruption was discovered, it was done by all accounts, Russians. This means a "foreign" agency is potentially influencing an American Election. If the Russians hacked the RNC and Wikileaks was holding on to info waiting for the right time to release the RNC & trump would be livid!

Random thoughts about DNC nite 1:

No one in the Republican Party could give the speech Corey Booker gave!

RNC had the "Benghazi mom" DNC had the Military widow who was Swindled by Trump U!!!!

 

FLOTUS gave the speech of the night. She stayed positive and reiterated that "America is Great"!!!!
She also took shots at DT without even referencing him by name!
Flotus was a role model for women, mothers, parents & politicians! She wants a "President who knows the issue are not black and white and cannot be boiled down to 140 characters"!
She gave a speech for the ages!

Elizabeth Warren speech seems like it was intended to be a take down of DT.
It is funny that the only thing DT has on Warren is to call her "goofy" & "Pocahontas".
On the other hand EW called out DT for being rich (which is not an issue), but then swindling blue collar working people just so he can earn a little more.

She spoke to the working class, and reiterated-DT is for himself and not for you and he is sitting up in trump Tower, not among the people. 
Her speech is just furthering the feud between the 2, and it is entertaining, but doesnt win elections.

I bounced back and forth between networks. Noticed that Fox pundits gave their opinion while Keith Ellison was giving a speech introducing Bernie.

Bernie gave a good speech. He stated his platform. He asked his followers to vote for Hillary as they he said DT is not going to to address his issues.
I dont know if his speech will change the mind of his delegates. However one pundit indicated that 85% of Bernie delegates will likely vote Hillary.
Later on Twitter when DT tried to appeal to Bernie supports, Bernie responded!

 

Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders  9h9 hours ago

Bernie Sanders Retweeted Donald J. Trump

Never tweet.

Bernie Sanders added,

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Bernie Sanders totally sold out to Crooked Hillary Clinton. All of that work, energy and money, and nothing to show for it! Waste of time.

 

Edited July 26, 2016 by Elmer

[Chilli Dipper]

I promised myself I wasn't going to watch any of the convention coverage, but it came on immediately after American Ninja Warrior, and I couldn't find the remote. (Unlike when Ted Cruz went onstage last week while I was at the gym, I at least was able to pour myself a beer.)

If stubborn Bernie supporters weren't won over after last night, nothing will convince them. That said, MSNBC reporters went looking for disappointed Sanders delegates after his speech, and they found a young woman who was so upset that so many Bernie supporters were in the crowd, and the DNC made him go last. I was nearly beside myself: "Oh, you just don't know how any of this works, do you?"

[iacas]

18 minutes ago, Elmer said:

Flotus was a role model for women, mothers, parents & politicians! She wants a "President who knows the issue are not black and white and cannot be boiled down to 140 characters"!

Yet Obama pioneered the use of Twitter in modern day presidential politics.

Not that I'd expect anything different. You've gotta take your shots in modern politics where you can, seemingly.

I'm not watching any of the speeches and don't know who I'll vote for this fall, but skimming, that part stuck out to me.

[Elmer]

9 minutes ago, Chilli Dipper said:

I promised myself I wasn't going to watch any of the convention coverage, but it came on immediately after American Ninja Warrior, and I couldn't find the remote. (Unlike when Ted Cruz went onstage last week while I was at the gym, I at least was able to pour myself a beer.)

If stubborn Bernie supporters weren't won over after last night, nothing will convince them. That said, MSNBC reporters went looking for disappointed Sanders delegates after his speech, and they found a young woman who was so upset that so many Bernie supporters were in the crowd, and the DNC made him go last. I was nearly beside myself: "Oh, you just don't know how any of this works, do you?"

I saw the delegate from VT, a young women who had a Bernie Tattoo. She was upset that Bernie was not given enough respect and attention. She felt that night 1 should have been about Bernie.
What I found funny about the 3 Bernie delegate who were interviewed post convention.
They all said they "trusted" Bernie and would do what ever he said, Except vote for Hillary, they dont "trust" her!

Day 2 maybe interesting when they get to the roll call!

2 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yet Obama pioneered the use of Twitter in modern day presidential politics.

Not that I'd expect anything different. You've gotta take your shots in modern politics where you can, seemingly.

I'm not watching any of the speeches and don't know who I'll vote for this fall, but skimming, that part stuck out to me.

Considering Twitter was founded in 2006, no other president has had the opportunity!

 

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, Elmer said:

Considering Twitter was founded in 2006, no other president has had the opportunity!

That's got nothing to do with the point I was making.

Look, @Elmer, you've been one of the most outspoken and biased guys here from the start on politics. Which is fine… but let's not pretend that some things aren't true or don't smell funny. Any Obama criticizing anyone for their use of Twitter? C'mon…

I don't care for politics, and one of the main reasons is because people talk out of both sides of their mouths, and it's disgusting. Everyone does it. I hate seeing it. I hate lying.

I'm not willing to discuss the subtle differences in how you feel Obama uses Twitter (or used it) versus how Trump does, because I couldn't care much less, and don't have the time or interest to look things up. But it seems to me that, as I said, Obama really has very little room to criticize anyone else for their use of Twitter. It played a huge role in his campaigns.

[rehmwa]

22 hours ago, Chilli Dipper said:

How about we hack into the RNC's e-mail server and find out what party leadership really thinks about their voter base?

I'd bet it's almost exactly the same.

Great comment - I think you noted it very clearly by stating "voter base" instead of singling out minorities, or any other 'demographic'

- what do the leaders of these organized parties REALLY think about the 'average' American voter?

1 - with few exceptions, we are just 'votes' they need to buy, either with benefits, or titillation, or with identification to their needs, desires, outrage or fears.

2 - they absolutely take for granted entire blocks of demographics - if that's not totally racist, classist, sexist, etc etc - then I don't know what is.

3 - they have no issue pitting us all against each other, even to the extent of rioting and violence and murder, just to get those votes (look at the rhetoric on both sides, look at the campaign strategy that Wikileaks revealed, it's not 'secret' any more)

1 hour ago, Elmer said:

FLOTUS gave the speech of the night. She stayed positive and reiterated that "America is Great"!!!!
 

 

I like Michelle.

However "America is Great" is a LONG ways away from "For the first time in my life I'm really proud of my country".  Maybe the last 8 years opened her eyes.  Maybe each speech is just written for whatever the audience wants to hear.

[mtsalmela80]

They should follow up their illegal alien speech by grabbing a couple guys out of Gitmo to speak on Islamic rights.

[Gunther]

45 minutes ago, mtsalmela80 said:

They should follow up their illegal alien speech by grabbing a couple guys out of Gitmo to speak on Islamic rights.

It's masterful bon mots like this that make me happy to have started this thread.  Well played sir,  very well played.

[drmevo]

4 hours ago, iacas said:

I'm not willing to discuss the subtle differences in how you feel Obama uses Twitter (or used it) versus how Trump does, because I couldn't care much less, and don't have the time or interest to look things up. But it seems to me that, as I said, Obama really has very little room to criticize anyone else for their use of Twitter. It played a huge role in his campaigns.

I don't think it was intended to be a criticism of politicians or anyone using Twitter in general, I think the point was that most of Trump's policies are no more than sound bites, and he has yet to explain how he would implement most of them. He has an overly-simplistic explanation for everything, hence the black and white comment.