How Would You Play It? 72nd hole at Bahamas Exuma Classic, 2 Shots off the Lead

[MacDutch]

Well, there could be other reasons why a certain par and a possible birdie would be my choice:

1. running out of gas, no energy left for a playoff;

2. the loanshark that needs to be paid today;

3. my bet with Phil Mickelson that makes me win 30k if I finish t1 or t2;

4. I don't feel confident I can hit my 3-wood the way it needs to be hit. The water on the left is getting into my head.

So I take my 7 iron, that I hit consistently all day long, to leave me a gapwedge to the green.

[djfajt71]

I voted for going with the 3W.  I was watching it as it happened, and I thought to myself that he played it way too conservatively.  He had a nice cushion from anyone behind him, and he was tied for 2nd and could get into the playoff.  There was very little to lose, and way too much to win!

[Golfingdad]

3 hours ago, boogielicious said:

Also, the sand to the left of the green (not the small bunker) is designated waste area.

Yeah ... EVERY sandy area on the course was designated as through the green, so not even the areas immediately adjacent to greens weren't technically bunkers.

DJs dream course. :P

[p1n9183]

I choose to lay-up. Why ?

If i´m  this player i know that i´m not a legend playing for Glory. with only 1 win on tour I´m playing for making money and garantee the card for the next year. With that goal in mind i will do my math to weigh risk against reward to maximize my paying check for that week and all of the week till the end of the year. 

Now the numbers spected according to pga tour stats:

If i lay up, out of 100, 20 will be birdies, 77 pars and 3 bogeys. Average price money of 55K.

If i go for it I need to take water out of play aiming at left margin of the fairway 30 yards away from the water. 
Out of 100, 55 will go to wasted area 40 yards from the ping, 13 will go between bunkes into the fairway 10 yards from the ping and the other 32 to the bunkers 15 yards from the ping. From all that places play the 100 shoots and the result will be.. 3 eagles, 38 birdies, 57 pars, 2 bogey. Average price money of 58K.

In average going for it it´s better 58K > 55K but that´s with average stats. Only 3% of the time i will make an eagle and 50/50 i will win in play of so.. 1,5% of the time i will win the tournament going for it. Maybe 0,1% if i lay up. 

But in this case i would feel a lot more pressure with my 3 wood in hand than with a short iron, that pressure could lead to a big miss outside my dispersion zone that could end in the water or even OB left, with this in mid spected average money price will be less than 58K, even less than 55K,so in this scenario i will go for the lay up.

 

 

 

 

[Golfingdad]

3 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

I choose to lay-up. Why ?

If i´m  this player i know that i´m not a legend playing for Glory. with only 1 win on tour I´m playing for making money and garantee the card for the next year. With that goal in mind i will do my math to weigh risk against reward to maximize my paying check for that week and all of the week till the end of the year. 

Now the numbers spected according to pga tour stats:

If i lay up, out of 100, 20 will be birdies, 77 pars and 3 bogeys. Average price money of 55K.

If i go for it I need to take water out of play aiming at left margin of the fairway 30 yards away from the water. 
Out of 100, 55 will go to wasted area 40 yards from the ping, 13 will go between bunkes into the fairway 10 yards from the ping and the other 32 to the bunkers 15 yards from the ping. From all that places play the 100 shoots and the result will be.. 3 eagles, 38 birdies, 57 pars, 2 bogey. Average price money of 58K.

In average going for it it´s better 58K > 55K but that´s with average stats. Only 3% of the time i will make an eagle and 50/50 i will win in play of so.. 1,5% of the time i will win the tournament going for it. Maybe 0,1% if i lay up. 

But in this case i would feel a lot more pressure with my 3 wood in hand than with a short iron, that pressure could lead to a big miss outside my dispersion zone that could end in the water or even OB left, with this in mid spected average money price will be less than 58K, even less than 55K,so in this scenario i will go for the lay up.

I was going to say that I think you are considering the risk to be much higher than it really is versus the reward.  I mean the worst possible outcome is 3rd place, which means ~13k less in earnings than T2.

However, I went and looked at the web.com tour final money list for last season and was quite surprised.  The top 25 get their PGA cards and the guy in 25th place last year made $150,267.  If you added $13,000 to that guys total, he would jump from 25th to 18th.  If you subtracted 13k from that total then he would drop to 33rd or 34th.  So, at the end of the entire season, 13k actually makes a HUGE difference if you're near the cutoff.

Good post @p1n9183, and now I think I understand the players reasoning a little better.  He would have liked to have made birdie or eagle, but needed to avoid bogey at all costs.

[rehmwa]

Play to win (since the player status isn't a consideration after that good discussion).  Hammer a 3 wood for the chance.  A good hit might offer an eagle, else it's an easier chance for a birdie (sole 2nd) or par (tied 2nd).  I'd hope that dropping to worse than 3rd isn't likely for a pro.

 

1 - still get a paycheck

2 - still get a top 5 no matter what

3 - off chance to eagle is the pay - and you've not yet got your win

4 - there is a collection bunker if it goes left...,

pretty much what everyone else is saying

[Golfingdad]

3 minutes ago, rehmwa said:

I'd hope that dropping to worse than 3rd isn't likely for a pro.

I agree.  But still, the loss of the 13k is from making bogey or double and going from T2 to solo 3rd.

Further, if he's simply acknowledging that his chances of getting down in 2 from 300 yards is smaller than his chances of making bogey, then he's probably just asking himself which approach gives him the better chance at birdie.  I would assume closer, since that's generally the rule, but since it's mostly sand up there, it reminds me of this cool chart @RandallT shared in the TOC thread last week:

PGA TOUR players are slightly better from 100 yards in the fairway than they are from 40 yards in the sand.  So in his head it's fairly close to a wash perhaps, AND he takes bogey or worse just about completely out of play.

Lastly, if you surveyed the guys on the web.com tour and asked them if they'd rather have a win on that tour, or make the PGA TOUR for the following season, I would bet that most of them would choose the latter.  So I can simply say that I see how that 13k was a big risk for that guy.