Only Bad Golfers are Lucky

[Piz]

Regarding a previous post...a central point, in Taleb's book  Fooled by Randomness, is that we, as humans, are disposed to constructing narratives.  He doesn't mention golf; but it occurred to me, while reading the book, that he could have.  We like to think that sinking a putt is evidence of skill and lipping out is "bad luck".  The reality is that some drop and some don't.  The same could be said for catching a poor lie in the fairway, in a bunker, etc...It isn't "luck"...it's just what happens; but it makes for a better story when mysterious forces are assigned a role.

[iacas]

3 hours ago, Piz said:

Regarding a previous post...a central point, in Taleb's book  Fooled by Randomness, is that we, as humans, are disposed to constructing narratives.  He doesn't mention golf; but it occurred to me, while reading the book, that he could have.  We like to think that sinking a putt is evidence of skill and lipping out is "bad luck".  The reality is that some drop and some don't.  The same could be said for catching a poor lie in the fairway, in a bunker, etc...It isn't "luck"...it's just what happens; but it makes for a better story when mysterious forces are assigned a role.

I still disagree with that.

He's using a different definition of "luck" than I would.

If you get a bad lie in the fairway, or your ball rolls into a deep divot hole, that's bad luck. It can be expected some percentage of the time, but it's still bad luck.

Just like it's good luck if your ball goes into the rough but sits up on a nice fluffy patch of grass.

That's not "constructing a narrative." That's "I expect something one way 98% of the time, but this time I got one of the 2% ones."

[Par Fore]

Respectfully disagree.  Some days watching the PGA Tour, it seems like one of the players can walk between the raindrops.   One player hits what appears to be the perfect tee shot, and it rolls just 4 inches off the fairway into the deepest rough in the course.  His playing partner launches it 40 yards off the fairway  into Marlboro Country and has a perfect lie in a trampled area, just 5 feet short of OB.  Another event, one player literally hits it so bad it goes across a 20 yard waterway, hits the bank and bounces back across the water and into the center of the fairway.....his partners ball is barely leaked out to the right center of the fairway, just releases a little far and rolls right in.  I see it all the time watching tour events - best players playing the best players, 5 yards from one another in the rough - one is sitting up like it's on a tee, the other so deep it's almost a lost ball, immediate examples of good and back luck.....the same that we all have in our weekend games.  All these players at the highest level, luck is in every tournament.  Pros hit trees and end up in the middle of the fairway....I believe some even have hole in ones that hit a tree.

Same thing for me.......this weekend, I played in some decent wind and played really, really well.....but any shot that I hit in the rough nestled up close to a tree and I was punching out, it was uncanny.  Some days, I play much worse but bad shots somehow magically work out.  

I think luck plays a role even at the highest levels, and if you look for it, it's there a lot more often than you might think.

[JonMA1]

20 hours ago, Par Fore said:

I think luck plays a role even at the highest levels, and if you look for it, it's there a lot more often than you might think.

I agree it can sometimes plays a role in a single round. But I just can't accept luck as much of a factor or reason in my game. Good and bad results even out.

I don't understand the disappointment shown by a PGA player when his 30' putt rolls up next to the hole but doesn't drop. I get anything close to a tap-in from that distance and I'm feeling really good by the effort and the result. In my mind, luck has as little to do with that as it does when I lip out a 3 footer instead of just rolling it to the center of the cup.

I hit into the trees a lot, probably more than most. So occasionally the ball going to rebound back into play. But it's not anything unusual or statistically rare. I might say to my playing partner something stupid like "I'd rather be lucky than good", but what I'm really thinking is "why the hell can't I control my club face".

To your point @Par Fore, if those types of good results happen to occur a couple of times during a round when I'm otherwise playing well, I might shoot a record low score. In that case, the inevitable good bounces coinciding with better-than-agerage play is somewhat lucky.

Of course if a shot bounces off a tree and rolls into the hole, that's 100% luck. It's something that can't be repeated in 100,000 attempts (just throwing a number out there).

[1badbadger]

"Golf is a game of luck.  The more I practice, the luckier I get."

-Ben Hogan

 

[The Hook Meister]

That statement is true enough. Remember that some days its better to be lucky than good! When I am playing on a course with a lot of trees I will always take lucky, Darn things tend to get in the way a lot.

[Dufferpauly]

I always try and feel lucky just by being out there!

[MuniGrit]

Luckis for hackers for sure but it also applies to pro tournaments. 

[NEhomer]

Luck definitely plays a role but I find it interesting that when a fellow takes a greenside bunker shot and splashes it out to 6 inches from the pin we call it a great shot. When the ball falls in the hole from the same shot, we call it luck.