Strategy Question About Difficult Opening Hole

[Ty_Webb]

I have a one round qualifier coming up on Thursday. It's a course I'm not particularly fond of, but it was the only place near me that I could do. It's a decent field with only about 4 spots and ties. The event itself is a 36 hole in one day thing, so small field and there are a few exempt players too, hence the small number of qualifiers. Assuming it's not windy, I'm guessing that the qualifying mark is going to be around -1 or -2. I'm starting on 10, which is my least favourite hole on the course. It's about a 460 yard par 4. Drive is uphill and then approach is downhill. Picture shown below. The red lines are first one about 45, second and third both 51 yards long and go from lost ball gunch on the left to lost ball gunch on the right. The first line is about 210, the second about 255 and the 3rd 300.

 

So, 50 yards is pretty tight. If I played 100 rounds around here, I'd probably have my lowest scoring average by hitting something like a 2 iron about 220, then a 4 iron down into the throat of the green, pitching up and hoping for a one putt. But, if I hit driver (approx 270) I'll be looking at either reteeing and then my day is basically shot. Double or worse on my 1st hole is going to be a lot to come back from. On the other hand, if I do hit it straight, then I should wind up with about a 6 iron to the green and a decent chance of a par to start. So my choices are scoring averages around 4.75-5 if I lay back or two humps at about 4.25 and 6+ if I go for it. I'd guess the 4.25 would happen 75% of the time and the 6+ 25% of the time. This on a day when I need to shoot -2 ideally (not trivial at the best of times). The trees on the inside corner are tall - if I hit 2 iron in the right side, I'd have to lay further back.

If it was my 10th hole then I'd adjust based on how I was playing that day and what my score was. I don't think there's any benefit to hitting 3 wood because it's no wider, so will keep about the same ratio of 75/25 and make the 4.25 more like 4.5. In a longer event or with more spots, I'd probably play the 2 iron shot. Given there are so few spots I'm leaning driver, but curious what people think. No chance for a practice round. My next shot hit on a golf course will be this one.

[saevel25]

IDK if it is that bad. Since there is a hole on the left side, and the hole opens up, it might be best to just error on the left side. 

You may have to punch out, but you should be able to punch it towards the green a good distance. Even the same if you were to lay back with a 2 iron. I feel if you lay back with an iron and miss right you are screwed. Your effective width for the 2 iron might be smaller than you think. 

If it is your first hole, then maybe hit some good drives on the range practicing for that moment. Do you have a go to shot that is like 70-80% distance, but it is a fairway finder? 

You hook a 2 iron, or push it into the trees right then it is much worse off than missing with the driver. 

[Ty_Webb]

3 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

IDK if it is that bad. Since there is a hole on the left side, and the hole opens up, it might be best to just error on the left side. 

You may have to punch out, but you should be able to punch it towards the green a good distance. Even the same if you were to lay back with a 2 iron. I feel if you lay back with an iron and miss right you are screwed. Your effective width for the 2 iron might be smaller than you think. 

If it is your first hole, then maybe hit some good drives on the range practicing for that moment. Do you have a go to shot that is like 70-80% distance, but it is a fairway finder? 

You hook a 2 iron, or push it into the trees right then it is much worse off than missing with the driver. 

The fairway and rough areas are about 20 feet above the level of that hole on the other side. In between is a steep bank that has undergrowth and long (like 3 feet long) grass. It's basically an automatic retee if you miss left. I've played here twice before - both times it was my 10th hole and I was driving it well, so just hit driver and hit the fairway. The right side might be a little more playable, but I don't remember. Left is definitely dead. Driving range is 200 yards max...Tee time is 8:10am, so no chance of going elsewhere to hit some drivers first. 😕

[klineka]

Do you keep any stats or have you been on a launch monitor that shows your lateral dispersion with driver? 

My answer would vary if you tell me driver is a strength and your normal dispersion is  under 65yds vs you telling me driver is not a strength and your normal dispersion is 85yds. 

Something else to consider is how wide your dispersion is with 2iron. If you hit 2 iron can you be virtually certain that it will almost never bring either side's hazards into play? Because what you most certainly do not want to do is lay back with 2 iron and then still have some chance of a lost ball. 

 

I don't mind the 2 iron play so long as it doesn't bring hazards into play (and that's assuming your driver dispersion is in the 70yd+ wide range like most amateur golfers).

Treating it like a par 5 and have 5 be your goal, sneak away with a 4 sometimes but almost never bringing 6 into play is what will probably yield you the lowest score over the long term. 

I bet for the tournament that the scoring average for this hole will be over 5, even 5.5+ wouldn't shock me. PGA Tour players average 4.17 from 460yds so I think your strategy should be whatever puts you in the best position to make a 5 while minimizing the chances of a 6. 

 

[Ty_Webb]

12 minutes ago, klineka said:

Do you keep any stats or have you been on a launch monitor that shows your lateral dispersion with driver? 

My answer would vary if you tell me driver is a strength and your normal dispersion is  under 65yds vs you telling me driver is not a strength and your normal dispersion is 85yds. 

Something else to consider is how wide your dispersion is with 2iron. If you hit 2 iron can you be virtually certain that it will almost never bring either side's hazards into play? Because what you most certainly do not want to do is lay back with 2 iron and then still have some chance of a lost ball. 

 

I don't mind the 2 iron play so long as it doesn't bring hazards into play (and that's assuming your driver dispersion is in the 70yd+ wide range like most amateur golfers).

Treating it like a par 5 and have 5 be your goal, sneak away with a 4 sometimes but almost never bringing 6 into play is what will probably yield you the lowest score over the long term. 

I bet for the tournament that the scoring average for this hole will be over 5, even 5.5+ wouldn't shock me. PGA Tour players average 4.17 from 460yds so I think your strategy should be whatever puts you in the best position to make a 5 while minimizing the chances of a 6. 

 

I don't have my lateral dispersion per se, but over my last four rounds, I think I've hit 8-9 tee shots (out of 53 total) that would have missed the 50 yard window. Hard part is two of those were my first shot of the day. 65ish is pretty close to right for me. And I have been driving it passably well lately. I would expect to keep my 2 iron in play. Can't guarantee fairway, but if I hit that into the lost ball stuff, then my day isn't going to be a good one.

[billchao]

18 minutes ago, klineka said:

I bet for the tournament that the scoring average for this hole will be over 5, even 5.5+ wouldn't shock me.

This is the first thing I thought when I saw the hole. Play to not make a 6. Bogey likely gains strokes on the field. Par would be a bonus.

@Ty_Webb I’d play this one on the conservative side, myself. You don’t want to be hitting 3 off the tee on the first hole of day.

[klineka]

8 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

I don't have my lateral dispersion per se, but over my last four rounds, I think I've hit 8-9 tee shots (out of 53 total) that would have missed the 50 yard window. Hard part is two of those were my first shot of the day. 65ish is pretty close to right for me. And I have been driving it passably well lately. 

So basically you can expect almost 1 out of 5 to be unplayable with driver. Yeah that's a 2 iron all day, IMO. 

[WillieT]

Which of the 3 clubs off the tee you mentioned - Driver, 3w or 2i are you most often in the fairway?  If I were playing, I would look to rely on my best "fairway" finder and then work in from there.  Of course I'm not the one trying to qualify and if the first hole is the bear you note, then the pressure's on for sure.  What type of tee shot will get you comfortably in the fairway for a "decent" approach shot - nGIR would be good, GIR would be great.  Hitting 3 off the tee is a 6 for sure.  How solid is your greenside game?  On this length hole, being just off the green for an up-and-down par, kick in bogie would be my plan.  That's how I would play it - let us know how it turns out....  

[saevel25]

Ok, I did some analysis of this using strokes gained. 

 

3 hours ago, Ty_Webb said:

So my choices are scoring averages around 4.75-5 if I lay back or two humps at about 4.25 and 6+ if I go for it.

2 iron
4.65-ish (26% of the time)
4.45-ish (74% of the time)
*Pray you just don't hit one OB

Driver
5.2 (18% of the time) * Probably less since you said right is not necessarily dead
4.3 (35% of the time)
4.1 (47% of the time)

*Note, the width of that ellipse is 70 yards wide. I think that fits with what you described as your miss being more than 50 yards. Could be a bit less, than that makes driver better. 

Overall, it is 4.50 for the 2-iron and 4.36 for the Driver. 

This is a one-off tournament, so not sure if you want to bring crap into play, dead on the left is about 9% of the time. Right is about 9% of the time, you said it wasn't as bad as left. 

82% of the time you are good and saving almost 1/3rd a stroke over hitting 2-iron.

 If your short game is very good, then maybe that plays a part here. 

[klineka]

13 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Driver
5.2 (18% of the time) * Probably less since you said right is not necessarily dead
4.3 (35% of the time)
4.1 (47% of the time)

Maybe I'm not fully understanding the math here but you think he will average a 4.1 47% of the time that he hits driver? Even though he will still likely have 190-200yds left in, and from 200 out PGA Tour players average 3.19 strokes to hole out from the fairway and 3.42 from the rough. It's not like if he hits driver he will have a flip wedge in or something, it's still going to be like a 4/5iron, maybe even a hybrid.

From 460yds on the tee PGA Tour players average 4.17 strokes to hole out and that's with a much lower penalty rate than ~18% so I don't really see how he would average a 4.1 47% of the time and under 4.5 82% of the time hitting driver. 

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, klineka said:

Maybe I'm not fully understanding the math here but you think he will average a 4.1 47% of the time that he hits driver? Even though he will still likely have 190-200yds left in, and from 200 out PGA Tour players average 3.19 strokes to hole out from the fairway and 3.42 from the rough. It's not like if he hits driver he will have a flip wedge in or something, it's still going to be like a 4/5iron, maybe even a hybrid.

2-Iron leaving 240 yards, I wasn't interpolating 255 yards. Driver going about 285. So, I assumed 180 yards left in. He said he would hit 6 iron in on a straight drive, it isn't going to be exact because the strokes gained are PGA Tour values from every shot counts. It might be dated a bit to. Also, it is just to give a comparison of 2 iron versus driver. I do not know his strokes gained data. Being a +0.6, I doubt the difference in strokes gained between 2-iron and driver would be that far off. 

5 minutes ago, klineka said:

From 460yds on the tee PGA Tour players average 4.17 strokes to hole out and that's with a much lower penalty rate than ~18% so I don't really see how he would average a 4.1 47% of the time and under 4.5 82% of the time hitting driver. 

Yea, 4.1 strokes if the fairway is hit, which makes up 47% of the shot zone. 4.3 strokes if the rough is hit, which makes up 35% of the shot zone. I assumed 5.2 strokes the remaining 18% since it's a dead-area. 

The 4.5 strokes is for the 2-iron. Not for the driver. I didn't say 4.5 82% of the time. 

Here is an example. The % is based on the shot zone and what percentage of area that is made up by rough, hazard, and fairway. Now, the distribution of shots in that zone might not be uniform, but assuming that is all I have. The SG for each area is the SG chart. The dead-area, I assumed stroke in distance. A recovery shot from 180 yards is 3.8. 

I just multiplied the SG by the area to get a weighted SG for this situation. Adding up and adding a stroke for the tee shot gives me the average SG for this particular hole, which is 4.37 for the driver. 

A PGA Tour player, the % would change. Let's say they have like 0% dead-area. Then it might be like 55% fairway, 45% rough. Then on this tee shot, the average strokes gained will be around 4.19. Getting closer to the 4.1 average. They would not be hitting 180 yards in here on average. 

[SG11118]

What is your predicted likelihood of qualifying?  If you feel that your typical score will get you qualified, I'd probably err on the conservative side with the first tee shot on a tough hole like this.  If you think you are going to have to play two rounds that are quite a bit better than your typical round, I'd probably be more likely to try and be more aggressive from the get-go. 

Although with a 36 hole qualifier, I could understand the conservative approach on the first hole to avoid making the rest of the day meaningless.  I can remember reading a Raymond Floyd book, where he talked about how to play a first hole, and the only thing he was trying to do was make the hole as easy / stress free as possible to start building confidence for the remainder of the round.  There is a lot to be said for that.  

[Ty_Webb]

Few things to add regarding notes above - this is the hardest event to qualify for around me (outside of USGA events like the mid-am or US Am). It's an 18 hole qualifier. I have qualified for it once before. That was with an even par 71 on a windy day. I can get through, but it's not likely by any stretch.

The 6 iron in is because the second shot is quite significantly downhill. My six iron is about 178 in normal conditions. Downhill makes that more like 190-195. A poorly hit driver is going to leave me 200-210, in which case it's more like 4-5 iron. The rough isn't that severe if memory serves, so I don't think I'd be relatively losing much for a missed fairway but still in play. My iron play is my strength, although I have been driving it pretty well for me of late.

@saevel25 - I think that 18% score should probably be 6.2, not 5.2, which will add 0.18 to the average. 4.1 and 4.3 are probably optimistic too, but then 4.45 and 4.65 are also. 

But here is my thinking - let me know if you think I'm off somewhere:

This is a challenging qualifier where if I don't play on the very high end of my ability then I'm not going to get through. It's actually 6 and ties, not 4 and ties, but the point stands. There are several players in this who are better than I am. That doesn't mean I can't beat them, but it makes it difficult. So, in order to qualify, I need many percentages to fall my way. If they don't, then it's all moot anyway. It's not like 17th place and 117th place are any different from each other. Both are DNQ. So I don't think it's appropriate to minimize my expected score. I think it's appropriate to minimize my expected score *assuming that I play good shots*. I think that means hit driver. 

To put that another way, if I hit 2 iron, 4 iron, chip, two putts, and make 5, then play great for the rest of the day and miss by 1, that's going to be far more frustrating to me than hit driver, retee, make 7 and miss by 10. That's because the playing great the rest of the day will mean that if I had hit driver maybe I made 4 and got in. On the other hand if I hit driver and hit a good shot, make 4, then I'm off and running. So I have to play well regardless. I might as well give myself the best chance to get in.

I do want to say thank you to all of you for your comments too - I appreciate them - I didn't know what I was going to do when I posted - I'm still not 100% sure, but talking this through and seeing what you all think has really helped me to get my thoughts going in a particular direction. I'm also still open-minded 🙂 

 

[GolfLug]

3 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

Few things to add regarding notes above - this is the hardest event to qualify for around me (outside of USGA events like the mid-am or US Am). It's an 18 hole qualifier. I have qualified for it once before. That was with an even par 71 on a windy day. I can get through, but it's not likely by any stretch.

The 6 iron in is because the second shot is quite significantly downhill. My six iron is about 178 in normal conditions. Downhill makes that more like 190-195. A poorly hit driver is going to leave me 200-210, in which case it's more like 4-5 iron. The rough isn't that severe if memory serves, so I don't think I'd be relatively losing much for a missed fairway but still in play. My iron play is my strength, although I have been driving it pretty well for me of late.

@saevel25 - I think that 18% score should probably be 6.2, not 5.2, which will add 0.18 to the average. 4.1 and 4.3 are probably optimistic too, but then 4.45 and 4.65 are also. 

But here is my thinking - let me know if you think I'm off somewhere:

This is a challenging qualifier where if I don't play on the very high end of my ability then I'm not going to get through. It's actually 6 and ties, not 4 and ties, but the point stands. There are several players in this who are better than I am. That doesn't mean I can't beat them, but it makes it difficult. So, in order to qualify, I need many percentages to fall my way. If they don't, then it's all moot anyway. It's not like 17th place and 117th place are any different from each other. Both are DNQ. So I don't think it's appropriate to minimize my expected score. I think it's appropriate to minimize my expected score *assuming that I play good shots*. I think that means hit driver. 

To put that another way, if I hit 2 iron, 4 iron, chip, two putts, and make 5, then play great for the rest of the day and miss by 1, that's going to be far more frustrating to me than hit driver, retee, make 7 and miss by 10. That's because the playing great the rest of the day will mean that if I had hit driver maybe I made 4 and got in. On the other hand if I hit driver and hit a good shot, make 4, then I'm off and running. So I have to play well regardless. I might as well give myself the best chance to get in.

I do want to say thank you to all of you for your comments too - I appreciate them - I didn't know what I was going to do when I posted - I'm still not 100% sure, but talking this through and seeing what you all think has really helped me to get my thoughts going in a particular direction. I'm also still open-minded 🙂 

 

Yah, but why would you burden this one hole (especially it being first hole/hard hole and not your favorite) to be a hero? If you fall short by one shot then there are 17 other holes that need to answer for their sins. A par may not win you the day, a bogey may still let you live to fight the rest of the round and of course, a double will def ruin the day for sure. 

I would say, give yourself a legit par putt. Period.

Except for two bunkers next to the green doesn't seem like much of a challenge within 50 yards of the green. If you are a decent 'pitcher' (I would expect that from a scratch), then it is a no-brainer. 2 iron/2 iron (or 3 or 4)/40-50 yard pitch/legit par putt. I mean you gotta take a chance somewhere to hit a good/great shot, then why not the highest %/shortest shot (pitch)?

Now, had this been your true 10th hole then I would think driver depending on how the round is going, but obviously that's a moot point here.

[billchao]

I’m with @GolfLug on this one. It’s the first hole of the tournament. You hit driver in the shit and your 36 hole tournament is over on the first shot? I don’t see how that’s worth it. I’m sure there are plenty of holes to chase score on later in the round. This one screams “don’t make a big number” to me.

@Ty_Webb put yourself in the best position to score low. If you miss qualifying by one stroke, I’m sure there will be plenty of other places in the round you could have done better, too. 

[Ty_Webb]

9 minutes ago, billchao said:

I’m with @GolfLug on this one. It’s the first hole of the tournament. You hit driver in the shit and your 36 hole tournament is over on the first shot? I don’t see how that’s worth it. I’m sure there are plenty of holes to chase score on later in the round. This one screams “don’t make a big number” to me.

@Ty_Webb put yourself in the best position to score low. If you miss qualifying by one stroke, I’m sure there will be plenty of other places in the round you could have done better, too. 

18 hole tournament, not 36. There will surely be other places I could have done better, but there won't be any where I deliberately left myself unable to reach GIR. Over a 36 hole event I would hit 2 iron and probably make 5 and have 35 holes to make it up on. 

Chipping/pitching is the weakest part of my game. 

[saevel25]

47 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

I think that 18% score should probably be 6.2, not 5.2, which will add 0.18 to the average. 4.1 and 4.3 are probably optimistic too, but then 4.45 and 4.65 are also. 

Yea, you are right it should be 6.2. Still, 6.2 at 18% (I still think this to high) is 1.16 strokes. 5.2 is .936 strokes. So just add .224 strokes to the average hitting driver I stated. So, maybe equivalent to hitting 2 iron off the tee. Again, you said right is findable, so that 18% drops to like to 9% for a lost ball. I gave you a 70 yard wide shot zone, I am not sure that is correct. A typical shot zone would exclude some outlier shots. Maybe the worst 10%. So, your shot zone might be 60 or even 50 yards.

There could be cases where left is findable. Maybe it is just unplayable or a recovery shot. That reduces that 9% even more. To me, my look at it is overly conservative. I understand just making left dead.

For me, I would hit driver. I think 80% of the time I am going to find the ball. That’s good enough. That is my mentality. For me, I am more confident in hitting a club designed for maximum forgiveness than what I could consider the hardest club in the bag to hit. I hate hitting long irons. I can count on one hand the number of times I hit a long iron during a year. My 4 iron gets zero action outside of stupidly long par 3’s. Even then, I might prefer to chip a hybrid. I would move the ball forward I my stance, open the clubface a tiny bit. Make sure I swing down and left. I would hit this cut that starts over the left rough and ends up center or right center of the fairway. If it’s right rough, then fine. I would make sure the ball is moving right. 

In the end there is some psychological stuff here too. If you are uncomfortable hitting driver, then don’t. 

[billchao]

21 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

18 hole tournament, not 36. There will surely be other places I could have done better, but there won't be any where I deliberately left myself unable to reach GIR. Over a 36 hole event I would hit 2 iron and probably make 5 and have 35 holes to make it up on. 

Chipping/pitching is the weakest part of my game. 

Oh ok I misunderstood your original post. 

Hit driver. Make it a good one.