The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by x129

See I don't think child prodigies are exceptions. They are just the outliers. Human "talent" is on a bell curve. The prodigies are the 1 in  100 million people. 90% of us are in the middle where our talent is roughly the same. I don't think anyone would debate that there are a lot of people that could have been PGA pros if things turned out differently. Think of guys like Tony Romo, Jerry Rice, and the rest of the pro athletes that play to low single digits after spending the prime of their life working on something else. Plus of course everyone who never picked up the game. How many people do you think could have been PGA pros but didn't try hard enough? Lets say it is 1%. That means there ate 10000 PGA per 1 million people. Thats a lot of people. But there are also 990000 that don't have the talent. That is even  more.

You're right, wrong choice of words.  Outlier is a better term.  'Exception to the rule' implies that its black in white and you are either a child prodigy or you have no talent.  I certainly don't mean that.

FWIW, I looked up the definition of a child prodigy, and it is simply one whose skills or talents are far beyond their age or maturity.  I guess that means it could be argued that even child prodigies aren't necessarily "born with it."

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

And just for the record I'd like to say that I believe Dan WILL get to a + handicap meaning that he will have the physical ability to compete as a professional.

I really find this exraordinary.

Have you see the videos?

[mdl]

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

One more thing about natural talent....

I absolutely believe it exists.  It's ridiculous not to.  I just don't equate the level of natural talent it takes to excel in other sports such as basketball, football, hockey, soccer, or even tennis as I do with professional golf.  Therefore I don't place nearly as high of a premium on "natural talent" in golf as I do for other sports.  There are obvious physical barriers involved in the other sports that I listed.  Not so much with golf.  Some?  Yes.  But not as many.  In other words a lot more people can be taught to develop a controlled 110 MPH club head speed than can be taught to throw a baseball 95 MPH.

Yeah but "controlled 110 mph swing" is relative.  A 3 handicap, a scratch player, a +2, and a successful PGA pro can all have a "controlled 110 mph swing".  Yes there are fewer physical limitations to developing a controlled 110 mph swing than to developing a 90+ mph fastball, but in baseball there are TONS of guys who can throw 90+ who don't have the talent to be major leaguers.  In fact, as a DIII college baseball player I played against a guy who sat at 94-95, but he couldn't locate and had a terrible breaking ball, and I went 2 for 3 against him and my team lit him up for 10 runs.  Just the same in golf.  Maybe a higher percentage of the population could develop a controlled 110 mph swing with good instruction and lots of practice, but then it takes talent (as well as even more hard work of course) to go from a 2 HC to being a successful pro.  I don't think it takes any less talent to make that transition than it does to make a similar transition from successful amateur to pro in other sports.

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

Actually when I think about this topic I suppose that natural talent for a golfer isn't nearly as much physical as it is mental.  I can see how the Chinese and Russian children that can stack 13 bullets in their hand would be a better putter than the child that can only stack 6 or 8.  That mental ability to calm their nerves would definitely come in handy when standing over a 12-footer for birdie.  I'm guilty of looking at this in mainly a physical sense.  I don't retract any of my former posts or thoughts as I still believe that the physical aspects can be learned and grooved by a good percentage of would be golfers.  I do however acknowledge that there could be some innate ability to silence ones nerves regardless of the situation at hand, thereby allowing oneself to properly strike the golf ball when needed as opposed to the "not as naturally gifted" opponent that doesn't have the mental capabilities of the former.

Absolutely a big part of the talent in golf is mental!  Though don't underrate how much of talent in other sports is mental as well.  If you never have you should read David Foster Wallace's essay on why pro athletes can't really explain what makes them great or how they won a particular match or whatever.  He talks mostly about tennis (the sport he played seriously as a kid), and the gist of what he says is that perhaps the only way to be a successful pro athlete is to have or develop a very particular frame of mind, which could be viewed as a mental talent.  He talks about his own mental weaknesses that held him back from going DI star or pro, and the sound very similar to the mental struggles a lot of us have on the golf course.

[BuckeyeNut]

Originally Posted by Jonnydanger81

Just checked up on this guy the other day, he's doing pretty well.  He's 2,600 hours in, or just over 1/4 of the way.  I haven't really kept track of him recently, but he started in April 2010, now it's almost 2 years later and he's shooting in the 80's (HCP of 8.6 as of 2/12)

Wow...that's REALY BAD!!

Two years of that level of dedication to get to a 8.6?  LOL.....he has 1 chance in 1 Billion for succeeding.  He doesn't have the talent. (not by a long shot)  He should be scratch by now, and he would still be against the odds.

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeNut

Wow...that's REALY BAD!!

Two years of that level of dedication to get to a 8.6?  LOL.....he has 1 chance in 1 Billion for succeeding.  He doesn't have the talent. (not by a long shot)  He should be scratch by now, and he would still be against the odds.

Those numbers should be qualified though.

A)  He started 2 years ago from scratch.  It's not like he was a casual golfer who decided to start trying harder.  He had never done it at all.

B)  He's going about it differently than many of us might expect.  Doing one thing at a time, and working his way very slowly from putting up to driving.  In fact, he said that he only played his first full round with a full set of clubs in December.

So I don't think we should put much stock in that number.  However, if you google him, you can watch his videos and judge him based on what you think of his swing at this point and his athleticism, or lack thereof.

But, regardless, you are right that he has a minute chance of succeeding.

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by Shorty

Quote:

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

And just for the record I'd like to say that I believe Dan WILL get to a + handicap meaning that he will have the physical ability to compete as a professional.

I really find this exraordinary.

Have you see the videos?

They're something aren't they? I like the guy, but no amount of "deep practice" with that instructor could overcome his LOFT.

[TyWebbb]

Originally Posted by Shorty

I really find this exraordinary.

Have you see the videos?

Yeah hasn't he come a long way!  Granted he's no McElroy but he had never swung a golf club in 30 years of life.  The dude didn't even know if he would play right or left-handed.  I'm fascinated by this project.  Especially since its this particular guy.  He clearly wasn't born with a spec of golf talent and he's already a single digit.  The project wouldn't be nearly as interesting if he was able to pick up on the game any faster.  I'm excited to see how low he can actually go.  He's only a quarter of the way done.  If he does get to +, just think about how low someone that does have a little natural ability can get.

Originally Posted by mdl

Yeah but "controlled 110 mph swing" is relative.  A 3 handicap, a scratch player, a +2, and a successful PGA pro can all have a "controlled 110 mph swing".  Yes there are fewer physical limitations to developing a controlled 110 mph swing than to developing a 90+ mph fastball, but in baseball there are TONS of guys who can throw 90+ who don't have the talent to be major leaguers.

I was simply using that as an example.  Obviously having a 110 MPH club head speed doesn't amount to squat if you can't utilize properly.  Since you played collegiate baseball, you should know that there is a HUGE difference between a 90 and 95 MPH fastball.  I used 95 to make my point.  There absolutely are not "TONS" of guys that can throw 95.  I doubt there are as many 90+ guys in the world as you think either.  I played in college myself and I know all too well how the story telling about "how fast that one guy threw" goes.  I equate it to guys talking about how far they've driven a golf ball and the biggest fish they ever caught stories.  Boys will be boys.  I'm not saying......I'm just saying

Thank you for the essay recommendation.

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

He clearly wasn't born with a spec of golf talent and he's already a single digit.

.

And you believe that?

[Williamevanl]

I said this Dan earlier on:

If scratch golf were a mile, getting down to the 90's would be the first 20 feet. Shooting in the 80's would be the next 100 feet. Shooting in the 70's on a regular basis would be 500 feet and shooting around even par regularly would be the remaining 4660 feet. *tour pro +5-+7 level skill >10 miles with this analogy :)*
100's|90's|||||80's|||||||||^DanHere||||||||||||||||70's|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Scratch ----> 5 pages of | ->>> Tour Pro

People that think 8 is good considering he's only spent 2 straight years of practicing aren't considering a number of things such as diminishing returns on practice ie. how much more difficult the path becomes the lower you get, The above illustrates it, you could also do this with a histogram, something like:

Do you guys really see that as good performance? I think that puts golf and practice in perspective guys spending a couple hours a week practicing trying to get better, it will only take you 28 YEARS! to get the amount of practice that Dan has had and he's an 8! 3000 hours of practice and he's barely escaped the first standard deviation outside of the average handicap.

[Williamevanl]

Oh and this has been done half a dozen times before with the same result but one of my favorites was the ending quote by the "my green jacket guy" who stalled out right around where Dan currently is.

"But after 250 rounds? And weeks on the range, with topdrawer coaching? All that visualisation? Yes, I improved a lot. But then you meet some boytjie who never
practises and slams it around to a score in the mid-70s once a week.
That is called sporting ability. Talent. You need that stuff.
And that’s where I really start to feel ill. Because if I had ability like
that and worked as hard as I did, I’d be in plus figures by now."

-Richard ("My Green Jacket")

**no kidding**

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by Williamevanl

Do you guys really see that as good performance? I think that puts golf and practice in perspective guys spending a couple hours a week practicing trying to get better, it will only take you 28 YEARS! to get the amount of practice that Dan has had and he's an 8! 3000 hours of practice and he's barely escaped the first standard deviation outside of the average handicap.

That's what he and his instructor say. You can see that it's an arbitrary figure.

Where I come from he might be about 22 or 23.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm not trying to hate on the guy....but he isn't destined for golf.

yea...if he continues to practice for a full time job, he will improve.......but he will never get good enough to be competitive at city/regional/ or state AM events.   I know a lot of people including myself who goofed off playing weekends and reached single digits after 2yrs.

[soon_tourpro]

There is a lot of lets call it bad instructions out there and instructors in golf.

You can get a pro to increase distance with 50 yards on driver, you can get them to ace putts, and you got to do a load of clean ups from older bad teachers.

You need to build variation of shots which takes time and to build reference potential to then be creative with the shots.

Golf is an easy sport simple even.

However a lot of people assume you need some specific talent for the game, when you actually need good training, practice and instructions.

I have had to deal with such due to the golfer who wants to get good will get good in spite of the instructions and golf teachers due to those being so bad.

I guess you need talent to be good teaching golf and boy that is surely lacking.

Can anyone reach 120mph in a golf swing, yea they can.

That is 10mph over the average in the PGA tour.

Putting and the short game requiries practice and technique.

Once consistency and speed is then shaping shot takes place and most just need a stock shot.

Then you need the proper mental attitude to handle shooting low consistently, and that you can train to have.

I take a look at a junior golfer, check his teachers, and how they instruct him, and ask, why dont you do it this way instead?

You become a lot better if you do it this way which btw is measureable directly.

The guy I coach learns the amature to hit the ball 50 yards longer, 2 days later they come back hitting it short again due to them started to listen to their trainer again.

So we end up, that once people try to say you need talent to get good I often go lets remove the bad instructions first, then the bad teachers then do this and this and get really good.

3 weeks later their game is taking off into a whole different ballgame.

Suddenly their talented.

So the Dan plan is a good idea, however we can ask, did he have the best coaches getting him there and the best plan?

That makes a load of difference.

[iacas]

Originally Posted by soon_tourpro

Can anyone reach 120mph in a golf swing, yea they can.

No, they can't.

[elementz]

Originally Posted by Shorty

That's what he and his instructor say. You can see that it's an arbitrary figure.

Where I come from he might be about 22 or 23.

So he is lying about his index and is really a 22-23 according to you?  Okay....

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by iacas

Quote:

Originally Posted by soon_tourpro

Can anyone reach 120mph in a golf swing, yea they can.

No, they can't.

That pretty much says it all.

[mdl]

Originally Posted by TyWebbb

I was simply using that as an example.  Obviously having a 110 MPH club head speed doesn't amount to squat if you can't utilize properly.  Since you played collegiate baseball, you should know that there is a HUGE difference between a 90 and 95 MPH fastball.  I used 95 to make my point.  There absolutely are not "TONS" of guys that can throw 95.  I doubt there are as many 90+ guys in the world as you think either.  I played in college myself and I know all too well how the story telling about "how fast that one guy threw" goes.  I equate it to guys talking about how far they've driven a golf ball and the biggest fish they ever caught stories.  Boys will be boys.  I'm not saying......I'm just saying

Thank you for the essay recommendation.

Totally fair.  Obviously not tons of guys who can throw 95.  But 90?  I'd say there are tons of guys every year in college ball who can throw 90.  There were a couple just on my DIII team (though to be fair they really sat more at 87-89 and could pop a few up to 90).  A lot of them get drafted, and the vast majority never make it to the show.  And I think 90 is a decent comparison to 110 mph swing (well maybe more like 115), in that that's plenty of speed to make it as a pro, but doesn't make you a Bubba or an Aroldis.  But regardless, even if you just look at the minors, there's a huge number of guys there who throw 90, and a tiny percentage of them have the talent (mental or physical or both) to make it as a successful major leaguer.  I'm just saying that I disagree that the level of physical talent required to make the transition from having physical skills that look at least something like the physical skills the pros have to being a successful pro is any less in golf than it is in other sports, or that a higher percentage of the population possesses those skills.

Also fair on the "that guy threw 1,000 mph and I hit him well" story.  Believe what you will.  That guy was well known in the region as the guy with the absolutely ridiculous fastball who still got lit up by top 25 DIII teams.  I didn't see a gun that day, so I won't claim incontrovertible proof.  But I hit against plenty of guys who threw 88-89, and my first at bat that day I struck out literally swinging twice with the ball in the catcher's mitt, so he couldn't have just been throwing 90-91.  The 94-95 number I heard seemed reasonable to me given that experience so that's my story and I'm sticking to it :)

Oh, and that essay is from "Consider the Lobster" if you want to find it.  I actually listened to it (with him reading it very well) on a car trip, and if you spend significant time in the car I'd definitely recommend that.

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by elementz

So he is lying about his index and is really a 22-23 according to you?  Okay....

Do you think this "handicap" of his has been tested in competition play? I doubt that under our sytem he would even be 23.
Can a serious golf fan really look at those videos and see anyone other than a nice bloke having a hit but lacking any real ability or aptitude?

I know that I might sound rude, but  from what I see in a system where you manage your own handicap and play on a range of tees where you choose ones  where all par 4s are reachable in 2 and some par 5s are reachable in 2 by poor golfers, I don't take it seriously.

Three times in the last year , we have had visitors to our club who have rocked up to have a hit in our Wednesday competition. All three American blokes - and all really nice guys - claimed handicaps . 7, 12 and 5. The guy off 7 had 16 stableford points. That equates to 98 off the stick.  The guy off 12  had 21, from memory,( equates to 97) and the one off 5 had 111 in a stroke event. And one of them thought that you were entitled to a Mulligan on the first.

When I look at Dan's swing and think of guys I know off 9 and ones off 25, he is closer to the ones off 25, but probably worse.

He can call his handicap anything he likes. I would bet money that at this stage he wouldn't break 100 off mens back tees at a half decent course.

His "handicap" is like the ones we see at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. They're either 12 or "about a 5".Or, of course the "scratch" Kenny G.  What you actually see indicates otherwise.

NOw...I know that there are probably millions of golfers out there who have no choice but to administer their own handicaps and do it correctly and fairly.

But...If you look at Dan and see an 8 marker, you are seeing something very different from 8 markers that I see.