The Dan Plan - 10,000 Hours to Become a Pro Golfer (Dan McLaughlin)

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by x129

I respect him a lot for doing this and as I said I expect him to be a real good player (right around 0+-3). But that isn't close to being world class. The whole 10k hours things suffers from survivor bias. The ones that make it that far have gotten enough rewards along the way to continue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

Of course, all who are scratch golfers practice a lot, but I was more trying to make the point that most who practice a lot (read: 10k hours) are probably scratch golfers.  And obviously, not everybody is equally as good with equal practice.  And don't think that I am equating scratch with pro, either.  What are pros, +10's??

But ... it just dawned on me why my question is a bit skewed (although not sure if this is what you were going for):  It's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy because people (except perhaps Dan) who aren't getting good enough are mostly going to quit long before they reach the 10k hour plateau.

I just didn't say it quite as eloquently.

[LovinItAll]

I think this is my last post in this thread for awhile. At this point in Dan's plan, everything is just speculation, anyway. I found the quote in 2011 where Dan says, "The goal from the beginning has been to play a PGA event and make the cut." Again, I'll say that I don't think he's ever been cocky, and there's nothing wrong with having a goal. Many will consider this laughable, but Scott Stallings, currently an exempt player, was quoted as giving Dan a 25% chance of success. Just another opinion, of course, but his should carry a little more weight than most, as he's actually done it. Re : 'Talent' - Dan started in April of 2010 and was playing with only five clubs in July of 2011, adding his first long club, a hybrid, in August 2011. I think it would be fair to exclude the first year of 'playing', as he didn't actually play a round of golf the first year, but rather putted almost the entire time. So he's gotten to a 6 HC and broken 80 (low round = 76, 69.4/124) in the first year in my mind. Some may disagree with my assessment. That's cool. That's not bad at all, but not extraordinary...better than most, I'd say. I broke 80 my first year of playing (78 on a par 71 muni that was a very easy track), and I was playing 5x/week...so maybe 160 rounds or so before that day. It was at the very end of the year, and my next brush with the 70's came years later, as I quit the game right after that to focus on a new business venture. Also, I had probably played maybe a couple of dozen rounds throughout my life to that point, but they were all scrambles that I participated in after being invited. I don't include those in my 'I started playing golf at.....' time. Back to Dan - At his current pace in hours, he'll have to shave roughly 1.5 strokes every 1000 hours to get to a +4. Given enough opportunities, a +4 can probably make a cut eventually. As an example, Tim Jackson was a +4 when he lead the Senior Open as an amateur after two rounds. Had he been playing a regular PGA event and striking it like that, I think it's fair to say he'd probably have made the cut. Feel free to disagree with that, too, as it's just speculation, plus Jackson had a ton of competitive experience by that time. Jackson, by his own admission, has never been too keen on practice, but who knows what that really means. With all that said, I think Dan has a shot at his goal. Maybe not a great shot, but I think better than zero percent as I once thought. And if he actually does succeed? I've never given that much thought, but I'd be interested in hearing what impact, if any, his actual success might have on the way you guys think, and not necessarily about just golf. We've all spent time talking about the slimness of his chances, but if he makes it, I might look at things a little differently. Not sure exactly how, though....I'd have to think about it more.

[x129]

Putting and the short game is half of golf so I think just writing them off is a bit simplistic.  Dan definitely did not take the approach to minimize his handicap after 2000 or 3000 hours. I think that was the wrong approach (I think 1000 hours over 2 years is better than 1000 hours over 1 year but I don't have hard proof) but I don't expect it to affect the end result much

Other than the comment about winning on the PGA tour and then quiting to spend 10k hours do something else, I don't think anyone has called him cocky. Delusional on the other hand....

The tough part about the plan is that at the end of the day it means nothing. If he doesn't make it as a pro is it because his practice routine was inadequate or his finances let him down (i.e. maybe if he practiced 3k hours with a k-vest he would be +3 by now). And if he does make it, maybe he just had latent golf talent that hadn't been tapped.  You really need 1000 people to do the Dan Plan to draw any conclusions.

As I said in a previous post, the plan is entering the fun part. If at the start you had said Dan would have been in the 0-10 range after 3k hours, I think most people have though that was definitely possible.If you said he was a +2 after 6000 hours, I think a lot more people think that is improbable. And being a +5 at 10k is what most people think is truely impossible. Maybe Dan will keep improving. Or maybe he will go through another 6 month stretch where his handicap remains unchanged. I am guessing this thread will get another bump in 1000 hours or so when Dan shoots his first 72.

Originally Posted by LovinItAll

I think this is my last post in this thread for awhile. At this point in Dan's plan, everything is just speculation, anyway.

I found the quote in 2011 where Dan says, "The goal from the beginning has been to play a PGA event and make the cut." Again, I'll say that I don't think he's ever been cocky, and there's nothing wrong with having a goal.

Many will consider this laughable, but Scott Stallings, currently an exempt player, was quoted as giving Dan a 25% chance of success. Just another opinion, of course, but his should carry a little more weight than most, as he's actually done it.

Re : 'Talent' - Dan started in April of 2010 and was playing with only five clubs in July of 2011, adding his first long club, a hybrid, in August 2011. I think it would be fair to exclude the first year of 'playing', as he didn't actually play a round of golf the first year, but rather putted almost the entire time. So he's gotten to a 6 HC and broken 80 (low round = 76, 69.4/124) in the first year in my mind. Some may disagree with my assessment. That's cool.

That's not bad at all, but not extraordinary...better than most, I'd say. I broke 80 my first year of playing (78 on a par 71 muni that was a very easy track), and I was playing 5x/week...so maybe 160 rounds or so before that day. It was at the very end of the year, and my next brush with the 70's came years later, as I quit the game right after that to focus on a new business venture. Also, I had probably played maybe a couple of dozen rounds throughout my life to that point, but they were all scrambles that I participated in after being invited. I don't include those in my 'I started playing golf at.....' time.

Back to Dan - At his current pace in hours, he'll have to shave roughly 1.5 strokes every 1000 hours to get to a +4. Given enough opportunities, a +4 can probably make a cut eventually. As an example, Tim Jackson was a +4 when he lead the Senior Open as an amateur after two rounds. Had he been playing a regular PGA event and striking it like that, I think it's fair to say he'd probably have made the cut. Feel free to disagree with that, too, as it's just speculation, plus Jackson had a ton of competitive experience by that time. Jackson, by his own admission, has never been too keen on practice, but who knows what that really means.

With all that said, I think Dan has a shot at his goal. Maybe not a great shot, but I think better than zero percent as I once thought.

And if he actually does succeed? I've never given that much thought, but I'd be interested in hearing what impact, if any, his actual success might have on the way you guys think, and not necessarily about just golf. We've all spent time talking about the slimness of his chances, but if he makes it, I might look at things a little differently. Not sure exactly how, though....I'd have to think about it more.

[BuckeyeNut]

the guy has no talent.....he should be WAY ahead of where he is now..................

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by LovinItAll

Many will consider this laughable, but Scott Stallings, currently an exempt player, was quoted as giving Dan a 25% chance of success. Just another opinion, of course, but his should carry a little more weight than most, as he's actually done it.

I don't give any weight to comments which are designed to be nice and not make oneself look like an arse.

On what basis would Stallings or anyone else on the planet say that Dan has a 1 in 4 chance of becomeing one of the world's elite golfers?

It's the diplomatic equivalent of telling a child they can achieve anything in life if they try hard enough.

[iacas]

http://thesandtrap.com/b/thrash_talk/my_thoughts_on_the_dan_plan

[bunkerputt]

What I find really funny about it all is the whole mega-early and extreme wrist cock in every shot he hits.  At some point he'll realize it's holding back his ability to control the face.  If I were him, I would attack that non-stop for a few months until it was gone.  He just keeps going about reinforcing the same thing over and over and over, though.  Kind of sad.

[jamo]

FWFW, Dan was on a Grantland podcast the other day: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=8203047 He's about the last 6 or 7 minutes.

[bamagrad03]

I donated on his website last week. Gotta say, this guy is really impressive. He took the time to write me a very detailed thank you email. Talked about where I was from and how he has family over this way.

He may not make it on the tour, but I certainly think he's a good dude and wish him the best. I've really enjoyed following his progress.

It seems he may be moving a tad backward in his progression, however. He's posted some pretty large numbers on the course the last couple of weeks.

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by iacas

http://thesandtrap.com/b/thrash_talk/my_thoughts_on_the_dan_plan

I was waiting to hear from Iacas on this, got to say though I'm really surprised by the optimism in your post. You think Dan will get to a +1-+2, does that mean you think that a 6 handicap is 1/3 of the way to +2? Or 3X the skill of a 6 handicap is a +2?

I would have guessed it was something more like 3X(skill of scratch) as a + 1.5 . (and if Dan had gotten to scratch in 3000 hours I would have also projected something around a +1.5 )

Anyway, I've said for a while now that Dan would be about a 6 around 3000 hours (As much as a year, year and a half back), BUT I also said he wouldn't see a 4 handi until  5000 hours but then will spend the remainder of the project around a 2 handicap. I think everyone underestimates how much time he has already spent on this. 3000 hours is a CRAZY amount of golf! (think hitting 200 balls every single day for 8+ years)  It will quickly become "I know how to do it but it's just not happening"

[onesome]

Basically hes gonna see his progress slow down to a crawl here shortly, currently 6 and will reach 5 in the next 6 months and four 9 months later and 3 a year and a half later and probably stall at a 2 or possibly a 1 by the time the 10,000 hours are up,I think the fact that he doesn't have the years of maintaining a skill level are gonna be what holds him back ultimately,and by that I mean golf is a lifetime of learning game that can't be forced fed in a condensed amount of time if your expectations are turning pro and playing with the best in the world, hes gonna have to go back and redrill over skills that take lots of refinement and undo any bad habits that creep into his swing when his swing is going to have to be more efficient than ever before and more reliable by a long ways than he probably is aware of. I think if they were to put a 6 handicap player with years of experience alongside him right now and have them both put in the same amount of practice the more experienced player would make way more progress. I really wish Dan the best of luck but I think when that 10,000th hour ends Dan will be a very good golfer amongst us everyday players but inadequate when compared to the worlds most elite.

[iacas]

Originally Posted by Williamevanl

I was waiting to hear from Iacas on this, got to say though I'm really surprised by the optimism in your post. You think Dan will get to a +1-+2, does that mean you think that a 6 handicap is 1/3 of the way to +2? Or 3X the skill of a 6 handicap is a +2?

You seem to have missed the byline.

[Ben85]

I only just discovered this (thanks to the OP for sharing). I wish I had enough disposable funds to allow myself to spend similar amounts of time practicing. However, at $11 per 80 balls at the local driving range and not enough funds to buy a large property, I don't like my chances!

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by iacas

You seem to have missed the byline.

You are correct sir, well.... Let's hear it, what do you think?

[Fourputt]

Originally Posted by Jonnydanger81

Don't know if anyone has seen this yet but it's a pretty interesting journey this guy is taking.  10,000 hours of practice (6 hours a day, 6 days a week for 6 years) starting from the hole backwards, working his way to become a "professional" golfer.  http://www.thedanplan.com/index.php

I saw a write up about it the other day and he's just over 1 year in right now.  He started literally just putting from 1 foot for a month or something.  Then moved to 3 feet, then to all over the green and after a year he's now I think around 75-100 yards away from the hole so he's never swung a driver or long iron before.

Obviously to all of us this is an absolute dream, as he mentions many times on his site, but just the experiment part of it is pretty impressive too.  If you read any of the backstory on the "10,000" hour theory, it pretty much states that with a predetermined athletic prerequisite, pure talent (that which a lot of people state professional athletes have an us mere mortals don't) is actually much more rare than we think and many things can be achieved by extremely dedicated practice.  Here is the essay on deliberate practice if you really want a long read http://projects.ict.usc.edu/itw/gel/EricssonDeliberatePracticePR93.pdf

Maybe to you it's a dream, but to me it would be an absolute nightmare.  I don't particularly enjoy practice.  I do some short game practice, but the rest of my game is what it is, and so it shall remain.  I want to have fun with the game, and what he's doing would be the most tedious of chores for me.

Originally Posted by x129

The tough part about the plan is that at the end of the day it means nothing. If he doesn't make it as a pro is it because his practice routine was inadequate or his finances let him down (i.e. maybe if he practiced 3k hours with a k-vest he would be +3 by now).

Perhaps he simply lacks some indefinable talent, so that no amount of dedication and practice is going to help him reach his goal.  I wish him all the best, but it sure ain't for me, and probably not for very many people, even if they had the free time to devote to it.

[Williamevanl]

Originally Posted by Ben85

I only just discovered this (thanks to the OP for sharing). I wish I had enough disposable funds to allow myself to spend similar amounts of time practicing. However, at $11 per 80 balls at the local driving range and not enough funds to buy a large property, I don't like my chances!

That's another good way to illustrate the amount of effort Dan has put in to get to a 6 handicap. By his own estimate he has hit 346,560 balls so far in the project.

That would be an astounding 47 THOUSAND DOLLARS worth of range balls at the price you gave.

I wonder how many people would even bother practicing if they were told it took someone 47,000 dollars worth of range balls (and working with an instructor! ) to get themselves down to mid single digits.

Seriously what are the implications here for golf instruction?! "First lesson, okay I'm going to have you hit this bucket and work on some things in your swing. If I can get you to come back 4500 times, or once a week for the next 86 years (or 5 times a week for 17 years!)  you might be able to break 80 at the end"

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by Williamevanl

That's another good way to illustrate the amount of effort Dan has put in to get to a 6 handicap.

He is a 6 handicap in the same way that the "celebrities" we see on TV are 8 or 12 handicappers.

Rule of thumb: Add 10

[LovinItAll]

He is a 6 handicap in the same way that the "celebrities" we see on TV are 8 or 12 handicappers. Rule of thumb: Add 10

No, this is wrong. He keeps a legit HC.