2014 NCAA Football

[trickyputt]

  Golfingdad said:

[CONTENTEMBED=/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/420_30#post_1073427 layout=inline]Quote:[/CONTENTEMBED] [QUOTE name="DoubleEagle" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/420_30#post_1073510"]   Let me really mess it up for you...Alabama wins out..loses in the SEC Championship Game...Oregon wins out, FSU wins out, TCU wins out, Ohio State loses again... Now who do you have in the Playoff? FSU Oregon TCU ????? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE name="saevel25" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/420_30#post_1073516"]   Baylor or Alabama, thought don't forget Nebraska. They are a 1-loss team and probably the biggest challenge for Ohio State. So in terms of that actually being likely, I would say a 1-loss Nebraska team has an outside shot. [/QUOTE] I doubt Baylor.  I'd have a hard time believing that they'd include two Big 12 teams and have zero SEC teams.  I'd put my money on Mississippi State (assuming they win all of their remaining non-Bama games) as that fourth team.  One loss (to Alabama) vs. Alabama with 2 losses, including one to some "crappy" SEC East team? And I don't buy the whole "they don't deserve it because they didn't even make their conference championship game" argument either.  That's a farce.  Something that is ENTIRELY out of the kids control, and the nod goes to the Big 12 because they happen to be the ones fortunate enough to play in a conference without divisions?  Poppycock. If MSU loses another, then I agree Nebraska next.  Followed by Bama and then maybe Ole Miss (assuming MSU's second loss is to them). My dream scenario is that UCLA quietly squirms their way back into the conversation.  They'd need a considerable amount of help (obviously).  First and foremost, they need Zona to beat ASU to give them a second crack at Oregon.  They'd also need a bit of craziness in the SEC and the Big 12l, but hey, nuttier things have happened ... I think. :-P

Fussy fussy fussy. Ok then here. Scrolling that far on a phone screen makes my eyes spin vertically like a slot machine jackpot screen. Still..Nebraska? National championship this Saturday. It couldnt be timed worse for the tide coming off the big LSU win. I hope Bama doesnt come out flat.

[saevel25]

  trickyputt said:

Fussy fussy fussy. Ok then here. Scrolling that far on a phone screen makes my eyes spin vertically like a slot machine jackpot screen. Still..Nebraska? National championship this Saturday. It couldnt be timed worse for the tide coming off the big LSU win. I hope Bama doesnt come out flat.

Umm the playoffs and national championship is in January. :-D

[trickyputt]

Nope Bama beats Miss State this Saturday and gets vaulted to No#1, exudes confidence as a result and beats everybody. Simple. TCU and Oregon wont win.

[teamroper60]

  Golfingdad said:

Yeah, but that was only a short while.  The "Bowl Coalition" I believe it was called?  It started in 1992.  Prior to that, teams all pretty much had bowl tie-ins so it often times came down to just a poll vote between two teams who never played each other.  (Including 1990 and 1991, years that both had co-national champions, hence the urgency to form the coalition.)

This is false.  Boise beat OK in 2007.  In the 7 years since, there have been 7 (SEVEN!!!) non-AQ's in the BCS bowls.

  saevel25 said:

Not really, and since then what teams have been good enough to crack the top 25 in the BCS rankings? 8 Non-AQ schools have played in 7 BCS bowl games. You have multiple repeaters as well.

Utah: 2

Boise St.: 2

TCU: 2

Really there hasn't be a big push from a lot of non-AQ schools to really compete. A few schools actually spent resources and developed some pretty good teams. Even then, TCU joined the Big-12 and Utah joined the Pac-12.

Actually that was Gordon "The Bow-Tie" Gee, Ohio State President who called TCU "Little Sisters of the Poor".

Being in a BCS bowl is not the same as being given the opportunity to play in the NC game.   In 09, many pundits believed TCU and Boise both had legit claims to the #2 ranking and a shot at the NC but both were left out of that and ranked 3 and 4, so that they played each other.    Or the 2010 TCU team that was again professed by many pundits to have had a legit claim to the #2 spot and a shot at the NC.  In both cases, those teams ended their regular seasons undefeated and having beaten ranked teams during their seasons.  Yet they were convienently kept out of the top two spots, which kept them from being in the NC game.   Would either of them have won if they had been in the game?   Maybe not.   Alabama and Auburn were both very good teams.  But we really don't know, since they never got the chance, as Oregon and Texas got those spots...

BTW, it is no secret that Boise flirted with joining the Big East and TCU joined the Big 12, to get AQ status...    Giving all conference champions a birth in the playoff would at least give such teams a chance, without having to jump conferences to get there.

And I stand corrected on who used the LSOP phrase.  I knew it was somebody connected with the B1G.    Ironically, for the past few years, the same conference that has been viewed as weak.....

At any rate, it doesn't matter now.  That is not the system and for the time being we are stuck with this one.    It will be real interesting to see how this one plays out.

[teamroper60]

  trickyputt said:

Nope Bama beats Miss State this Saturday and gets vaulted to No#1, exudes confidence as a result and beats everybody. Simple.

TCU and Oregon wont win.

Who do you think is going to beat TCU?  All they have left is Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.   Texas might be a possibility but a slim one.

Oregon still has a PAC 12 championship game to play, so yeah, they could easily lose yet..

Wouldn't even hazard a guess at the 'bama/MSSt game..

[Golfingdad]

  teamroper60 said:

Who do you think is going to beat TCU?  All they have left is Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.   Texas might be a possibility but a slim one.

Oregon still has a PAC 12 championship game to play, so yeah, they could easily lose yet..

Wouldn't even hazard a guess at the 'bama/MSSt game..

Crazy things always happen, especially in conference games, but yeah, on paper, it looks like TCU has the easiest remaining schedule of the top 8.  Followed by FSU then Ohio State, I'd venture.

For fun, lets say TCU, FSU and Oregon all win out.  So, which team is going to fill the fourth spot if Alabama wins Saturday?

Obviously, if Alabama wins out, then they'll easily be in.  But if they lose to Auburn, does MSU squeeze back in?  I'd say that's likely.

What if Alabama wins Saturday, but loses to Auburn AND MSU loses to Ole Miss in the last week?  That is the scenario where I could see Ohio State working their way in.

Oh, and lastly, if Alabama wins a close one Saturday and then they win out, as does MSU, I could see MSU squeezing past TCU, possibly, and two SEC teams in the playoffs.

OK, I'm done rambling and playing "what if" for now. Be patient self and see what happens this weekend.

[saevel25]

As of right now, Ohio State a little bit of help from those above them in the rankings.

Alabama to beat Miss. State, no idea why I predicted Miss. St. will win on this one . I'll stick to my prediction though

Alabama to lose to Auburn

Miss. State to lose to Ole Miss.

I think that would still put Alabama in the SEC West title game. Though, things could get fun if Georgia gets in, they are playing better and can probably give an SEC west team a run for their money. They need Missouri to lose another game.

Arizona State to lose to Arizona

Oregon to lose to Arizona State

That would leave TCU, Baylor, Ohio State and FSU as the only 1 loss or better teams. Since the playoff committee has put a 1 loss OSU team above a 2 loss SEC team in the current rankings.

Though that would bring up an interesting question. Do you leave Baylor out who would actually win the Big 12 Championship due to head to head match up win over TCU? With out an actual championship game they are left with a weird scenario were Baylor is actually behind TCU in the rankings.

So I am not sure two Big-12 teams get in.

If that plays true it would probably be,

1) FSU

2) TCU

3) Ohio State

4) Miss. State or Baylor

Though I think that you can actually fit the Pac-12 in and still have Ohio State get in.

1) Oregon

2) FSU

3) TCU

4) Ohio State

[trickyputt]

  teamroper60 said:

[QUOTE name="trickyputt" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/468#post_1074255"] Nope Bama beats Miss State this Saturday and gets vaulted to No#1, exudes confidence as a result and beats everybody. Simple. TCU and Oregon wont win.[/QUOTE] Who do you think is going to beat TCU?  All they have left is Kansas, Texas and Iowa State.   Texas might be a possibility but a slim one.   Oregon still has a PAC 12 championship game to play, so yeah, they could easily lose yet..  Wouldn't even hazard a guess at the 'bama/MSSt game..

I am a big fan of connecting conferences to the post season play. It shuts people up or gives them hope but always qualifies and registers their interests against the other conferences, which is the real test for teams. TCU? You can do it by weight. At a certain point these games are gonna have speed on both sides of the line. Then the bigger guys start winning, all things being equal. I cant say I follow The Horned Frogs.

[Golfingdad]

  saevel25 said:

As of right now, Ohio State a little bit of help from those above them in the rankings.

Alabama to beat Miss. State, no idea why I predicted Miss. St. will win on this one . I'll stick to my prediction though

Alabama to lose to Auburn

Miss. State to lose to Ole Miss.

I think that would still put Alabama in the SEC West title game. Though, things could get fun if Georgia gets in, they are playing better and can probably give an SEC west team a run for their money. They need Missouri to lose another game.

Arizona State to lose to Arizona

Oregon to lose to Arizona State

That would leave TCU, Baylor, Ohio State and FSU as the only 1 loss or better teams. Since the playoff committee has put a 1 loss OSU team above a 2 loss SEC team in the current rankings.

Though that would bring up an interesting question. Do you leave Baylor out who would actually win the Big 12 Championship due to head to head match up win over TCU? With out an actual championship game they are left with a weird scenario were Baylor is actually behind TCU in the rankings.

So I am not sure two Big-12 teams get in.

If that plays true it would probably be,

1) FSU

2) TCU

3) Ohio State

4) Miss. State or Baylor

Though I think that you can actually fit the Pac-12 in and still have Ohio State get in.

1) Oregon

2) FSU

3) TCU

4) Ohio State

Just wanted to point out that if Arizona beats ASU, then it's highly unlikely that ASU will win the Pac-12 South.  UCLA can win out and it's theirs, otherwise, it'll likely go to Arizona or USC.

That doesn't really change your scenario (although if UCLA beats Oregon, they will be in the conversation for that 4th slot - but that's a HUGE "if") but figured I'd point it out anyway.

  trickyputt said:

I am a big fan of connecting conferences to the post season play. It shuts people up or gives them hope but always qualifies and registers their interests against the other conferences, which is the real test for teams.

If they decided, ever, to go to a 16 team playoff, then I'd be totally fine with that.  There are currently 10 conferences (11 if they wanted to be nice and count the independents as a conference) so they could allow all of them in, and then still have room for 5 or 6 at large teams.  If the playoffs were today, it would look something like:

1. Mississippi State (SEC Champ)
2. Oregon (Pac-12)
3. TCU (At-large)
4. FSU (ACC)
5. Alabama (At-large)
6. Arizona State (At-large)
7. Baylor (Big-12)
8. Ohio State (Big-10)
9. Auburn (At-Large)
10. Ole Miss (At-Large)
11. Notre Dame (Independents)
12. Marshall (USA)
13. Northern Illinois (MAC)
14. Colorado State (MWC)
15. Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
16. Memphis (American)

You'd have some laughers in there, but you'd also have some fun matchups (Ohio State-Auburn, Baylor-Ole Miss, and an ASU-Notre Dame rematch of last weekend)

The other option would be to go to 12 teams, 10 champs and 2 at-larges, top 4 in rankings get a bye.

[MS256]

  saevel25 said:

Miss. St is a -8.5 underdog at Alabama.

You better jump on that bet.

Bettors always like Alabama too much. Always have.

You would think that Alabama fans were the only ones betting (and they are always overly optimistic to say the least).

Vegas is going to open the line where they think they can get the most public action. For some reason the betting public has no confidence in Mississippi State and think Alabama is still "Alabama".

[mcanadiens]

  Golfingdad said:

Northern Illinois (MAC)

Remember. Nobody waltzes into DeKalb, IL and just gets a win against the Huskies.

[MS256]

I don't have a whole lot of problem so far with the Selection Committee's Top 25 but some of the choices and specifically some of the things they say to explain it are somewhere between humorous and eyebrow raising.

To admittedly give Oregon a break because they had an injury to their left tackle tops the list. As if no other football team in the country has had injuries.

To get themselves in a position where both Baylor and TCU could win out and Baylor be the conference champion because of head to head play yet be ranked lower.

They are either going to have to do some serious leap-frogging or throw their own stated criteria of weight for conference winners and head to head matchups in the trash can.

To talk about scheduling quality out of conference teams, use the lack of that against Baylor, and then not give FSU any credit for scheduling Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Florida as out of conference games. Those teams may not have turned out as good as would be expected but that's certainly not FSU's fault and they certainly aren't Chattanooga, UT Martin, or Georgia Southern either.

To give TCU all kinds of credit for scheduling Minnesota. Really? They are number 25 right now and will probably lose the rest of their games.

[trickyputt]

  MS256 said:

[QUOTE name="saevel25" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/450#post_1074172"]   Miss. St is a -8.5 underdog at Alabama. [/QUOTE] You better jump on that bet. :-D   Bettors always like Alabama too much. Always have. You would think that Alabama fans were the only ones betting (and they are always overly optimistic to say the least). Vegas is going to open the line where they think they can get the most public action. For some reason the betting public has no confidence in Mississippi State and think Alabama is still "Alabama".

Bama is going have a ghost on their sideline that will be looking at the MSU team until the last whistle blows. MSU has lost so many times to Bama it permeates the team. I will be impressed if they overcome their history and improve.

[Golfingdad]

Watching USC-Cal right now and the only thing that's really obvious to me is that BOTH of these teams would mop the floor with Alabama.

[saevel25]

http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2014/11/43591/minnesota-sc-coach-doesnt-like-local-nfl-team-letting-opponent-use-sideline-heating

I am not sure if the traveling team has to bring their own heating equipment or if the home team typically provides it for both sidelines. Ohio State is renting the Vikings heating equipment for the game this Saturday and Minnesota's strength and conditioning coach is none too happy about it.

[David in FL]

  Golfingdad said:

Just wanted to point out that if Arizona beats ASU, then it's highly unlikely that ASU will win the Pac-12 South.  UCLA can win out and it's theirs, otherwise, it'll likely go to Arizona or USC.

That doesn't really change your scenario (although if UCLA beats Oregon, they will be in the conversation for that 4th slot - but that's a HUGE "if") but figured I'd point it out anyway.

If they decided, ever, to go to a 16 team playoff, then I'd be totally fine with that.  There are currently 10 conferences (11 if they wanted to be nice and count the independents as a conference) so they could allow all of them in, and then still have room for 5 or 6 at large teams.  If the playoffs were today, it would look something like:

Mississippi State (SEC Champ)

Oregon (Pac-12)

TCU (At-large)

FSU (ACC)

Alabama (At-large)

Arizona State (At-large)

Baylor (Big-12)

Ohio State (Big-10)

Auburn (At-Large)

Ole Miss (At-Large)

Notre Dame (Independents)

Marshall (USA)

Northern Illinois (MAC)

Colorado State (MWC)

Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Memphis (American)

You'd have some laughers in there, but you'd also have some fun matchups (Ohio State-Auburn, Baylor-Ole Miss, and an ASU-Notre Dame rematch of last weekend)

The other option would be to go to 12 teams, 10 champs and 2 at-larges, top 4 in rankings get a bye.

I don't think we'll ever get 16, though I'd love it.  I'm holding out for at least 8 though......there's gotta be some element of a Cinderella possibility in there.

[saevel25]

  David in FL said:

I don't think we'll ever get 16, though I'd love it.  I'm holding out for at least 8 though......there's gotta be some element of a Cinderella possibility in there.

16 would be horrible. I rather see 8 very good to elite teams play then see adding another 8 teams who probably shouldn't be in the playoffs at all.

[trickyputt]

  Golfingdad said:

Watching USC-Cal right now and the only thing that's really obvious to me is that BOTH of these teams would mop the floor with Alabama.

Thats some fishbait right there! Hopefully, this selection process results in not only resolving top 4 ranking issues but also regional ranking issues.