2014 NCAA Football

[Gunther]

[URL=http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-game-projections/]http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-game-projections/[/URL] Using Strength of Schedule adjusted stats, they get about 77% of the games correct :whistle:  with their Projected Win Expectancy (PWE) equation. Against the spread they are 49.6%. Vegas is really really good :-D , unless you are Ohio State who beats the spread by 63 points ;-)   You might want to take stats more seriously here. I am not saying they are the final say. They can shed light on different aspects of the game. I agree the players still have to play. [URL=http://thesandtrap.com/content/type/61/id/110406/] [/URL] I heard about that. The primary thing is they still have no clue what Cardale Jones ability is to lead this team as a QB. If Barrett was in their I doubt they would have TCU and Baylor as favorites.  They say teams that are favored have won 77% of the games this season. Off those 23% that where underdog wins, OSU has won both their games when they were underdogs. Just saying :-D

That's an interesting stat, 77% win rate. Think I'd chalk that up to the big boys and their ridiculous non-conf schedules where you might see lines of 30 points. Wonder what the stat is comparing only those games where the line was below 7, or somesuch single digit range.

[saevel25]

That's an interesting stat, 77% win rate. Think I'd chalk that up to the big boys and their ridiculous non-conf schedules where you might see lines of 30 points. Wonder what the stat is comparing only those games where the line was below 7, or somesuch single digit range.

Luckily they have game by game data.

When you look at the number of times a projected winner was chosen using PWE on that site. Looks like underdog starts winning more games at around -3 to -4 and less.

If you look at actual winners of the game. The spread were an underdog starts winning 50% of the time is about 1-1.5 on the spread.

With a spread of 1 or less the underdog won 63% of the time this year.

[Gunther]

Luckily they have game by game data. When you look at the number of times a projected winner was chosen using PWE on that site. Looks like underdog starts winning more games at around -3 to -4 and less.  If you look at actual winners of the game. The spread were an underdog starts winning 50% of the time is about 1-1.5 on the spread.  With a spread of 1 or less the underdog won 63% of the time this year.

Ok, interesting. So, based on the +4.5 and +3.5 for TCU and Baylor respectively, probably around 60% chance they'd beat OSU. I can sleep better now. ;)

[saevel25]

Ok, interesting. So, based on the +4.5 and +3.5 for TCU and Baylor respectively, probably around 60% chance they'd beat OSU. I can sleep better now. ;)

Well if you can guess how well the team will perform with Cardale Jones go ahead. Does the 59-0 Buckeyes roll into town, or something a less. I think that is where the +4.5 and +3.5 come from.

I think with Barrett, and if OSU put up a similar performance against Wisconsin, OSU would be a 1.5 point favorite over TCU and 2.5 favorite over Baylor.

[Gunther]

Well if you can guess how well the team will perform with Cardale Jones go ahead. Does the 59-0 Buckeyes roll into town, or something a less. I think that is where the +4.5 and +3.5 come from.  I think with Barrett, and if OSU put up a similar performance against Wisconsin, OSU would be a 1.5 point favorite over TCU and 2.5 favorite over Baylor.

I'm still not convinced that Wisconsin win was legit. Will see how they fare against Bama.

[saevel25]

I'm still not convinced that Wisconsin win was legit. Will see how they fare against Bama.

Even after the loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin is still a 25 team in the ESPN FPI, F/+, S&P;+, TeamRankings.com, Sagarin

Basically every sort of rankings you can think of. Human polls, stat drive, strength of schedule adjusted. They are still a top 25 team that includes a 59-0 beating. Wisconsin is a good team. They just ran into a hurricane. That is what happens when the O-line and D-line from one team owns the other for 60 minutes.

Take it as you will. There are people who know more about football than I do who still have them ranked as a top 25 team even with being demolished by Ohio State.

Heck Wisconsin went into LSU and was up 24 to 7 going into the middle of the third quarter. Wisconsin ran for 268 yards, Gordon averaged 8.8 yards per carry. They held LSU to 2.7 yards per rush. LSU has a top 15 defense. It took all the voodoo, witch doctor, baby sacrificing magic Les Miles has to pull out ANOTHER 4th quarter come from behind victor down at LSU.

[trickyputt]

One of the more interesting things to me is the History of Sims as the scrimmage back. His ability to help train the Bama defense against spread style offenses turned out to be a key in the development of a defense that might not have been developed into its current form. There is a huge amount of work these players have been putting into this season. I am sure that is true to some degree at a lot of schools, but its just cool to see the commitment to excellence generally. When used as a decoy, cooper is excellent. When the Bama defense practices against the Bama OL, then come gametime they have an easier go of the game. I just wonder what records get set this time.

[ditchparrot19]

You might want to take stats more seriously here.

I'll have to pass. I've seen how they work out (or should I say, how they frequently don't).

You can knock yourself out with all those numbers and if you're getting entertainment out of it, more power to you. But they aren't going to be good for much come New Year's Day.

In regard to the Vegas citation, you do realize that the point differential you predicted for the game and the actual betting line are 21 1/2 points apart, don't you?

[saevel25]

One of the more interesting things to me is the History of Sims as the scrimmage back. His ability to help train the Bama defense against spread style offenses turned out to be a key in the development of a defense that might not have been developed into its current form. There is a huge amount of work these players have been putting into this season. I am sure that is true to some degree at a lot of schools, but its just cool to see the commitment to excellence generally.

Yea like no other players from other teams put in a huge amount of work. Stop trying to make it seem like Alabama is the only program in the country that has players who put in extra work outside of practice.

Don't get me wrong, they do A LOT right. You have to when you win that much. It has more to do with talent and developing that talent into a system that makes them good.

When used as a decoy, cooper is excellent. When the Bama defense practices against the Bama OL, then come gametime they have an easier go of the game. I just wonder what records get set this time.

Biggest scoring margin victory for OSU over Alabama

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

I'll have to pass. I've seen how they work out (or should I say, how they frequently don't).

You can knock yourself out with all those numbers and if you're getting entertainment out of it, more power to you. But they aren't going to be good for much come New Year's Day.

In regard to the Vegas citation, you do realize that the point differential you predicted for the game and the actual betting line are 21 1/2 points apart, don't you?

You do realize that OSU point differential against Wisconsin versus what Vegas thought was 63 points don't you. You could actually say I am taking a more conservative number.

I guess I could go a tad less with it. The point differential between OSU and Mich. State was only 16 points. Still, I like my prediction.

[Golfingdad]

Yea like no other players from other teams put in a huge amount of work. Stop trying to make it seem like Alabama is the only program in the country that has players who put in extra work outside of practice.  Don't get me wrong, they do A LOT right. You have to when you win that much. It has more to do with talent and developing that talent into a system that makes them good.  Biggest scoring margin victory for OSU over Alabama :-D Sorry, couldn't help myself.  You do realize that OSU point differential against Wisconsin versus what Vegas thought was 63 points don't you. You could actually say I am taking a more conservative number. :-D    I guess I could go a tad less with it. The point differential between OSU and Mich. State was only 16 points. Still, I like my prediction.

Matt, it's still a loooooooooong time until January 1 .... You should pace yourself. ;)

[Gunther]

Even after the loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin is still a 25 team in the ESPN FPI, F/+, S&P;+, TeamRankings.com, Sagarin Basically every sort of rankings you can think of. Human polls, stat drive, strength of schedule adjusted. They are still a top 25 team that includes a 59-0 beating. Wisconsin is a good team. They just ran into a hurricane. That is what happens when the O-line and D-line from one team owns the other for 60 minutes.

I agree, they were #11 and legitimately so. I don't see how a #5 could take it to em like that. Urban Meyer is a snake; I still think there was collusion there. Improbable? Sure. Impossible? No way. If they beat Bama I'll eat my words, promise.

[saevel25]

Matt, it's still a loooooooooong time until January 1 .... You should pace yourself. ;)

This is pacing

No worries, soon my attention will be set towards Men's Basketball and Christmas presents!

I agree, they were #11 and legitimately so. I don't see how a #5 could take it to em like that. Urban Meyer is a snake; I still think there was collusion there. Improbable? Sure. Impossible? No way.

If they beat Bama I'll eat my words, promise.

Dear god you are going after that again. Just drop it man. TCU and Baylor do have some gripe, but it isn't that big of a gripe.

In the end tell TCU not to give up a huge lead to Baylor. Tell Baylor to play a tougher schedule. Tell the Big 12 to get a conference championship game.

[Gunther]

This is pacing :whistle: No worries, soon my attention will be set towards Men's Basketball and Christmas presents!  Dear god you are going after that again. Just drop it man. TCU and Baylor do have some gripe, but it isn't that big of a gripe.  In the end tell TCU not to give up a huge lead to Baylor. Tell Baylor to play a tougher schedule. Tell the Big 12 to get a conference championship game.

Points well-taken but if OSU gets stomped, I'll remain on the bandwagon. ;)

[trickyputt]

[quote name="saevel25" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/690#post_1084637"] Yea like no other players from other teams put in a huge amount of work. Stop trying to make it seem like Alabama is the only program in the country that has players who put in extra work outside of practice.  Don't get me wrong, they do A LOT right. You have to when you win that much. It has more to do with talent and developing that talent into a system that makes them good.  Biggest scoring margin victory for OSU over Alabama :-D Sorry, couldn't help myself.  You do realize that OSU point differential against Wisconsin versus what Vegas thought was 63 points don't you. You could actually say I am taking a more conservative number. :-D    I guess I could go a tad less with it. The point differential between OSU and Mich. State was only 16 points. Still, I like my prediction.

Matt, it's still a loooooooooong time until January 1 .... You should pace yourself. ;)[/quote] Please dont stop him. I am enjoying this. He may be right! Also, just for proprietys' sake, one should remember the root from which the word "fan" springs, that being fanatic, and give me as much room to dribblelip a team as you do him or any other fan. It only adds spice to the smoke of the burning flames of hopes and dreams.

[Golfingdad]

Please dont stop him. I am enjoying this. He may be right! Also, just for proprietys' sake, one should remember the root from which the word "fan" springs, that being fanatic, and give me as much room to dribblelip a team as you do him or any other fan. It only adds spice to the smoke of the burning flames of hopes and dreams.

I'm all for the debate and the excitement ... Just always get a little annoyed at this time cuz right as everything was building to a climax, it now gets put on pause for a month. Could you imagine if they just randomly had the Super Bowl in March? Lol.

[trickyputt]

[quote name="trickyputt" url="/t/72907/2014-ncaa-football/690#post_1084758"] Please dont stop him. I am enjoying this. He may be right! Also, just for proprietys' sake, one should remember the root from which the word "fan" springs, that being fanatic, and give me as much room to dribblelip a team as you do him or any other fan. It only adds spice to the smoke of the burning flames of hopes and dreams.

I'm all for the debate and the excitement ... Just always get a little annoyed at this time cuz right as everything was building to a climax, it now gets put on pause for a month. Could you imagine if they just randomly had the Super Bowl in March? Lol.[/quote]....and it sucks for team momentum. I guess the team admins could use the study for coaching purposes. I dont see a whole lot of reason for delay though. They had better consider the time issue as an 8 team playoff will only be worse time wise.

[ditchparrot19]

....and it sucks for team momentum.

Not for coaches who know how to work that system. Bobby Bowden was very good at it, as was Pete Carroll. Saban and Meyer have both shown they've got a pretty good grip on it, too.

Those who've proven not so adept include Bob Stoops and Jim Tressel.

[k-troop]

Go ARMY!! Beat Navy.