This Short Par 4 - Lay Up or Drive It?

[Mike Boatright]

I'f I could hit a 3 iron on the flag I would go for it! Hey it's a par 4 though nothing wrong with a 80 yard lw in to 10 feet vs a long chip from the back of the green it's all relative your trying to make a birdie.

[p1n9183]

Hi all! my first post here. I`m a strategy fanatic. Handicap 4. Next month i`ll be 2 :) 

I made the analisis of both scenarios. 

Going for it forces me to hit mi driver (270 yards). Obviously i want to reduce the % of hitting it into the water so i need to aim rigth, but how much ? well i know the dispersion of my driver so i have to aim to the rigth of the green. My worst left miss will no rich the water. my worst miss to the rigth will be on the short grass of the other hole. Short miss will be safe almost all the time. Long maybe will reach the tree but near the green.. it would be no problem to hit the green. Same thing if i miss slight rigth to the threes. (See Strategy pic)

Lay it up force me to hit my 5 iron 190 yards to the middle of the farway, leaving 60 yards to the pin (My strong suit). My 5 iron dispersion will leave all my balls in the fairway. From 60 yards my shot dispersion leaves water out of ecuation leaving me a putt inside 30 feet for birdie. (See Strategy2 pic)

So what should i do ??? Well i think it deppends. Maybe the rigth choise is to feel the moment. Im confident with my driver that day ? If I hitting my driver all over the place maybe Strategy2 is better. If not maybe going for it is better. But not always, because most of the time my 2nd shoot is going to be a chip/pitch.. im doing ok with them that day ?? 

Ok, to sum up. let`s say that is not my day i will lay up, easy par and chance por birdie. If not i`ll go 4 it.

Bye! 

 

 

[Pretzel]

1 hour ago, JonMA1 said:

In any event, you don't call someone out without a better reason than statistics on a such a small sampling, IMO.

You do when it's an unknown sample size and the odds of it occurring as a pattern are incredibly low..

[JonMA1]

9 minutes ago, Pretzel said:

You do when it's an unknown sample size and the odds of it occurring as a pattern are incredibly low..

I suppose we simply have differing opinions. To each his own.

[Lihu]

2 hours ago, JonMA1 said:

Nobody used the word but that's what was implied.

 

Golf is such a subjective sport when you don't have a direct means to measure stuff. It's equally likely that the OP could hit as accurately as he thinks he hits, or that @Pretzel and @SavvySwede could be correct. I don't really know. However, I do now that neither of the two intended to call 9wood a liar. They wanted confirmation of a statement made by 9wood in more concrete terms. Unfortunately, no absolute measurements are really available.

 

Quote

If someone was to exaggerate how well they played a hole, or how far they hit their clubs, or how deep the water was that they hit out of (as examples), wouldn't they also exaggerate their HI? Wouldn't there be a pattern? 

Game Golf eliminates a lot of self speculation. To compare oneself to others is easier when you have a common metric. I've become a believer in this tool, it helps me make decisions. I'm  still learning to edit my putts better to help make the "Insights" make more sense, but I really like it.

 

Quote

In any event, you don't call someone out without a better reason than statistics on a such a small sampling, IMO.

Agree, there are always going to be outliers.

1 hour ago, p1n9183 said:

Hi all! my first post here. I`m a strategy fanatic. Handicap 4. Next month i`ll be 2 :) 

I made the analisis of both scenarios. 

Going for it forces me to hit mi driver (270 yards). Obviously i want to reduce the % of hitting it into the water so i need to aim rigth, but how much ? well i know the dispersion of my driver so i have to aim to the rigth of the green. My worst left miss will no rich the water. my worst miss to the rigth will be on the short grass of the other hole. Short miss will be safe almost all the time. Long maybe will reach the tree but near the green.. it would be no problem to hit the green. Same thing if i miss slight rigth to the threes. (See Strategy pic)

Lay it up force me to hit my 5 iron 190 yards to the middle of the farway, leaving 60 yards to the pin (My strong suit). My 5 iron dispersion will leave all my balls in the fairway. From 60 yards my shot dispersion leaves water out of ecuation leaving me a putt inside 30 feet for birdie. (See Strategy2 pic)

So what should i do ??? Well i think it deppends. Maybe the rigth choise is to feel the moment. Im confident with my driver that day ? If I hitting my driver all over the place maybe Strategy2 is better. If not maybe going for it is better. But not always, because most of the time my 2nd shoot is going to be a chip/pitch.. im doing ok with them that day ?? 

Ok, to sum up. let`s say that is not my day i will lay up, easy par and chance por birdie. If not i`ll go 4 it.

Bye! 

 

 

Nice analysis of the situation! Looks almost like you use LSW shot zones. I suppose that's why you're getting down to a 2.

59 minutes ago, Pretzel said:

You do when it's an unknown sample size and the odds of it occurring as a pattern are incredibly low..

Low, but not impossible. IDK if he can do it or not, but I am obliged to believe the numbers he posted which are about 33% birdie.

I know I couldn't get that high a percentage even if I hit the green with my 3W. Thbbft. . .

[iacas]

3 hours ago, Pretzel said:

You do when it's an unknown sample size and the odds of it occurring as a pattern are incredibly low..

Yeah. 3 out of 9 or 10 means nothing really.

[Pretzel]

37 minutes ago, iacas said:

Yeah. 3 out of 9 or 10 means nothing really.

That is correct. When it was initially stated, however, it was stated as a flat, "I birdie this hole 1/3 of the time" type of fact. This is what prompted me to ask if this was truly the case and to press for a bit of detail simply because that's better than what a tour player would do. Since it is not a long-term trend it just means that at this point in time it is an interesting streak rather than some sort of crazy anomaly that allows a 20 handicapper to play better than a tour player.

[JonMA1]

18 hours ago, 9wood said:

I know that I have birdied this hole about a third of the time I have played it with my layup shot and then a PW close to the pin. Then rest of the time I usually par it.

 

6 hours ago, iacas said:

Yeah. 3 out of 9 or 10 means nothing really.

If he was using that information to suggest his skill level or that his strategy would always yield that ratio, you would be right. But he wasn't. He was using the above statement to support his argument that laying up was a good decision - nothing more than that. So it does mean something really. The point being that if a high capper can have this kind of success, the strategy might be sound. I think the sampling of 10 serves as adequate support for his argument.

5 hours ago, Pretzel said:

That is correct. When it was initially stated, however, it was stated as a flat, "I birdie this hole 1/3 of the time" type of fact. This is what prompted me to ask if this was truly the case and to press for a bit of detail simply because that's better than what a tour player would do. Since it is not a long-term trend it just means that at this point in time it is an interesting streak rather than some sort of crazy anomaly that allows a 20 handicapper to play better than a tour player.

Please read his statement a bit closer. He stated that he had birdied the hole 1/3 of the time, not that he always will until the end of time. (If there's information on another one of his posts that says otherwise, I'll apologize and this will be over.) 

The thing is, nobody pressed for more detail until @SavvySwedefinally asked him how many times he's played the hole. You guys went right to calling him out and the focus went from course strategy to using PGA stats to suggest someone is lying. Unless the OP has a history of mis-information, you should have obtained more data before doing that (again, just my opinion).

And regarding those stats, what are the chances this green is anywhere near as difficult to hold or putt from as those at a PGA tournament?

Erik and Tyler... you could both kick my ass in any measurement of intelligence as easily as you could in a round of golf (congrats on your +1HI, btw Tyler). But please remember this... to some it's a big deal what others say or think about their character.

I don't mean any disrespect to either of you, it just hit a nerve, that's all.

Edited April 10, 2016 by JonMA1
typo

[iacas]

Jon, in saying "I have birdied 1/3 of the time so it is the right strategy" he's not allowing for the flukiness of a statistically insignificant number of rounds played.

Sometimes the right strategy results in a big number or the wrong strategy results in a lower number in the short-term.

Nobody called him a liar. We were simply stating that to expect to birdie the hole 30% of the time is completely unrealistic, so that can't really be used to back that choice of strategy.

23 hours ago, 9wood said:

when in fact the hole is an easy birdie with a layup in front of the water and a short pitch, or at worst a par. 

It is not an easy birdie for a 20 handicapper. He wasn't speaking only of his small past sample. He was strongly implying the proper play and using his limited play as evidence without accounting for the unlikelihood of continuing at that rate.

[JonMA1]

Point taken. The words "easy" and "birdie" should probably never be used in the same sentence from those of us who struggle for pars. It's unlikely I'll make that claim anytime soon.

Thanks for the explanation.

[9wood]

8 hours ago, iacas said:

Yeah. 3 out of 9 or 10 means nothing really.

They sure make a big deal out it when a pro does it at the Masters. I guess it only matters when you become elite enough to play the Masters, but not important enough when you have a 19 HC. I would think you should make a bigger deal out of it when a high HC'er does it because you don't expect it and that makes it special, especially to the person who does it. When the pros do it, you expect it and it's not such a big deal. 

[Dave2512]

It's not a big deal because amateur stats tell us it's more happenstance than strategy. We have no reliable birdie process it usually just happens. 

I've made two birdies in the last two days. One after trying to play smart hitting iron from the tee on a trouble hole and chunking it short. It left me 209 from the pin on a 364 yd hole. I thinned a hybrid that barely got off the ground that hooked to the perfect spot and it rolled up a false front and stopped 5' from the hole. Back to back ugly shots left me a birdie putt.

That happens more than I'd like. From a game assessment perspective I'd rather hit two solid shots for GIR and two putt for par. 

[9wood]

1 hour ago, Dave2512 said:

Back to back ugly shots left me a birdie putt.

 

Even the pros make some pretty ugly shots. Saw quite a few of them while watching the Masters yesterday

[Lihu]

10 hours ago, Pretzel said:

That is correct. When it was initially stated, however, it was stated as a flat, "I birdie this hole 1/3 of the time" type of fact. This is what prompted me to ask if this was truly the case and to press for a bit of detail simply because that's better than what a tour player would do. Since it is not a long-term trend it just means that at this point in time it is an interesting streak rather than some sort of crazy anomaly that allows a 20 handicapper to play better than a tour player.

Agree, but this could be his one birdie hole. Most people have one or two holes they play well even as a 19 handicap.

6 minutes ago, 9wood said:

Even the pros make some pretty ugly shots. Saw quite a few of them while watching the Masters yesterday

They do, but their general playing is so much better there is absolutely no comparison between our dumb luck and their skill level.

[9wood]

24 minutes ago, Lihu said:

Agree, but this could be his one birdie hole. Most people have one or two holes they play well even as a 19 handicap.

They do, but their general playing is so much better there is absolutely no comparison between our dumb luck and their skill level.

When I put together good shots that allow me to make birdie, I don't call that dumb luck. 

[Lihu]

50 minutes ago, 9wood said:

When I put together good shots that allow me to make birdie, I don't call that dumb luck. 

Sorry, didn't mean to project, but every birdie I make is pretty much dumb luck.

Come to think of it, my son and all his team mates and coaches all feel more or less the same way. They vary from almost scratch to about where I am. The scratch player is not totally dumb luck of course, but making a the 20 foot putt is still pretty lucky.

[bm85]

48 minutes ago, 9wood said:

When I put together good shots that allow me to make birdie, I don't call that dumb luck. 

You seem a little proud for making birdie on a 250 yard par 4.

You also don't seem to appreciate chance/coincidence. When you hit a good shot, you're basically "lucky" because of your abysmal chance to do so (that was his point).

When you string together good shots, and good putts, you have essentially been possessed by the spirit of a good golfer wandering the course.

Edited April 10, 2016 by bm85
grammatical

[newtogolf]

I'd lay up, too much risk to go for the birdie for me.  IMO if you birdie any hole playing above a 15 handicap you got a little bit "lucky".