What Would a PGA Tour Player Shoot at Your Home Course?

[disaster]

When Martin Kaymer just became a professional, he played a 3rd-tier pro event at a course close by (not my home course though). That course is par 72, CR 74.4 and 7100 yards.

The guy won this tournament with rounds of 68, 59 and 62.

 

Given the fact that my acutal home course is even shorter and easier, I think the PGA Tour players would play a sub-60 score not everytime, but certainly every now and then with average scores in the low 60s

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, disaster said:

Given the fact that my acutal home course is even shorter and easier, I think the PGA Tour players would play a sub-60 score not everytime, but certainly every now and then with average scores in the low 60s

Your making the mistake of looking at a specific golfer, in a specific instance, and assuming that is what every PGA tour player would shoot. 

Kaymer is one of the better players in the world. It was also 3 rounds. That is not a good representation of what an average PGA Tour player would be expect to shoot. 

 

[djfajt71]

I voted for 65-70.  My course isn't super long, about 7085 from the tips, but a lot of the holes are pretty narrow.  The rough isn't overly high or thick but the greens are pretty quick and are a little smaller than average.  It rates out at 74.6/144.  I'm sure if it hosted a tour event, they could trick it out a little more to toughen it up. 

[disaster]

31 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Your making the mistake of looking at a specific golfer, in a specific instance, and assuming that is what every PGA tour player would shoot. 

Kaymer is one of the better players in the world. It was also 3 rounds. That is not a good representation of what an average PGA Tour player would be expect to shoot. 

 

I know that this was a specific example. Yet there are some things to consider, why I chose it:

a) This is a "standard" course which you can find here all over the country. Not comparable with the PGA Tour conditions (and that is what we are looking for in this thread).

b) It was - I think - in the very first year Kaymer went pro. He was playing to get to the Challenge Tour and the European Tour. So I think that there is a lot more pressure on the line than if you compare it with a just-for-fun round on any course. He surely wasn't one of the best of the world at this time of his career.

c) All 3 of these rounds were pretty good. I'm not saying that they'd shoot 59 everytime, but in this case, he shot a 59 followed by a 62. This certainly shows you that you can score extremely well on such a course.

[saevel25]

10 minutes ago, disaster said:

c) All 3 of these rounds were pretty good. I'm not saying that they'd shoot 59 everytime, but in this case, he shot a 59 followed by a 62. This certainly shows you that you can score extremely well on such a course.

That is just Kaymer. That is not the average PGA tour player. I can't go out there an say, "Kaymer shot a 59 and a 62 so all PGA tour players would do the same all the time". 

 

[Jeremie Boop]

Well, my one course is 72.5/126 and only 6810 from the tips. I would be surprised if a middle of the pack pro couldn't shoot pretty well there, they pretty much wouldn't need their driver and there isn't really much trouble. The other course is pretty pathetic, 67.9/112 6077 tips, so if they couldn't get below 65 on that course then they probably shouldn't be on the tour rofl.

 

**Edit** Though, strangely enough, I have much more trouble on the easier course because OB right tends to be pretty close to the edge of the fairway on several holes and the course conditions are less than mediocre. Still, though, a pro should be able to shoot under the course rating.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Jeremie Boop

[DeadMan]

I'd say between 65-70, probably around 68 the first time playing the course. My home course from the tips is 71.6/135.

The toughest holes would be the two long par 3s (around 200 and 240 yards, respectively) on the course. Probably bogey one of those two because of the length. We also have a lot of holes that punish wayward drives. I'd say that a wayward drive would also lead to a bogey at some point.

Other than that, I have a hard time seeing a pro making many bogeys on my course. Most of the holes are fairly straightforward if you can find your drive. I'd expect 12-16 GIR from a PGA Tour player on my course (median on PGA Tour is around 11.75 GIR, so bump that up a couple of notches because the course isn't all that difficult and quite a bit shorter than they play - 6800 yards at elevation). I'd be surprised if they had more than one 3 putt, because our greens are flat and easy. I'd also say that there's 2 or 3 driveable par 4s for the pros from the tips, plus 2 of the par 5s would be reachable for every PGA tour player, and the other one reachable for most of them. 2 or 3 birdies on those holes, plus a few random birdies scattered in on the other holes.  I think that would add up to around a 68 overall (~5 birdies, ~2 bogeys, par 72).

Second time around, though, once they get used to the green speed and lack of slope, and possibly more importantly, the distance difference from being at elevation, I would expect a lot of them to be knocking on 65 or less.

[iacas]

19 hours ago, natureboy said:

This isn't true? And when I was saying scratch, I specifically meant zero HCP.

If you're a 0.0 then ten of your rounds will average the course rating, but the other ten might average three or four strokes higher.

16 hours ago, dove694 said:

That's a valid point. But if you take a straight-away, straightforward 365 yard Par 4, they would probably have a "pitch" shot into the green and that's where those guys are deadly. A little knock down half-wedge that skips twice and checks is right in a Tour player's wheelhouse. 

You're wrong.

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.076.html

There's 50-75 yards, from the fairway, and… the median PGA Tour player is hitting it to 15'10". From 16', the average PGA Tour player is going to take about 1.81 putts.

And again, that's:

• from a PGA Tour fairway.
• to and putting on a PGA Tour green.

Neither of which are true here. On a 365-yard hole, the average PGA Tour pro would have to hit a 300-yard drive into a good lie on the fairway, hit it to 16' on the green, and putt at a PGA Tour level to shoot… -3.42 strokes below par on 18 365-yard holes.

You're vastly over-estimating how good PGA Tour players are with their wedges. Golf is Hard.® You should read my book.

16 hours ago, dove694 said:

Also, you said a Tour player would also shoot 54 on a 4000 yard course full of 225 Par 3's. I think that's lowballing it. They would probably be higher than that if such a course existed. But it's on the Par 4's and 5's that a player makes up their shots.

Do you not see how you're goofing things up here?

So on a 4000-yard course, you think they'd shoot, say, 56. But somehow, by your logic, by adding length, they're going to "make up shots"? No they're not. They're going to add shots to the 56. Quite a few, in fact, because instead of playing 18 par-threes, they're playing 14 holes that are, say, about 0.8 to 1.6 strokes harder. Heck, even if the holes are only 0.8 strokes harder, all 14 of them… that's 56 + (0.8 * 14) = 67.2.

[dove694]

On Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 6:38 PM, iacas said:

If you're a 0.0 then ten of your rounds will average the course rating, but the other ten might average three or four strokes higher.

You're wrong.

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.076.html

There's 50-75 yards, from the fairway, and… the median PGA Tour player is hitting it to 15'10". From 16', the average PGA Tour player is going to take about 1.81 putts.

And again, that's:

• from a PGA Tour fairway.
• to and putting on a PGA Tour green.

Neither of which are true here. On a 365-yard hole, the average PGA Tour pro would have to hit a 300-yard drive into a good lie on the fairway, hit it to 16' on the green, and putt at a PGA Tour level to shoot… -3.42 strokes below par on 18 365-yard holes.

You're vastly over-estimating how good PGA Tour players are with their wedges. Golf is Hard.® You should read my book.

Do you not see how you're goofing things up here?

So on a 4000-yard course, you think they'd shoot, say, 56. But somehow, by your logic, by adding length, they're going to "make up shots"? No they're not. They're going to add shots to the 56. Quite a few, in fact, because instead of playing 18 par-threes, they're playing 14 holes that are, say, about 0.8 to 1.6 strokes harder. Heck, even if the holes are only 0.8 strokes harder, all 14 of them… that's 56 + (0.8 * 14) = 67.2.

Aside from the fact your replies come across as a bit demeaning, I was talking about the score relative to par as opposed to a total score. Of course someone is going to shoot a lower number on a par 3 course. I meant pros are going to make up shots on par 4's and 5's as opposed to long Par 3's in relation to par. 

Edited May 27, 2016 by dove694

[Phil McGleno]

5 hours ago, dove694 said:

Aside from the fact your replies come across as a bit demeaning, I was talking about the score relative to par as opposed to a total score. Of course someone is going to shoot a lower number on a par 3 course. I meant pros are going to make up shots on par 4's and 5's as opposed to long Par 3's in relation to par. 

You are not getting it-What is harder a 225-yard hole or a 235-yard hole? Or a 325 yard hole? Or 425? Or 525?

If they are already at 56 just playing 225-yard holes adding length only adds to their score.

[iacas]

5 hours ago, dove694 said:

Aside from the fact your replies come across as a bit demeaning, I was talking about the score relative to par as opposed to a total score. Of course someone is going to shoot a lower number on a par 3 course. I meant pros are going to make up shots on par 4's and 5's as opposed to long Par 3's in relation to par. 

If an average PGA Tour player played an 18-hole par-five course, yes, they'd shoot more under par than if they played a par-three course. But what score would they shoot on the 18-hole par-five course? 83 would be pretty good. -7.

You've made a few statements that indicate to me that you don't truly appreciate how difficult golf is.

Go back and re-read what I've said in this thread, to you and to others. I think my points are valid, and I think you're vastly over-estimating how good PGA Tour players are.

Heck, I'll try another way, 6800/18 = 378 yards. Let's round that up to 380 yards (6840), and down to 360 yards (6480).

Spoiler

18 * 3.96 = 71.28

18 * 3.92 = 70.56

Things aren't looking so good for the "oh, they would shoot 61 easy" crowd.

[Jeremie Boop]

5 minutes ago, iacas said:

If an average PGA Tour player played an 18-hole par-five course, yes, they'd shoot more under par than if they played a par-three course. But what score would they shoot on the 18-hole par-five course? 83 would be pretty good. -7.

You've made a few statements that indicate to me that you don't truly appreciate how difficult golf is.

Go back and re-read what I've said in this thread, to you and to others. I think my points are valid, and I think you're vastly over-estimating how good PGA Tour players are.

Heck, I'll try another way, 6800/18 = 378 yards. Let's round that up to 380 yards (6840), and down to 360 yards (6480).

  Reveal hidden contents

18 * 3.96 = 71.28

18 * 3.92 = 70.56

Things aren't looking so good for the "oh, they would shoot 61 easy" crowd.

A bit OT, but it's a bit strange to see this statement. Typically it's that, in general, people underestimate how good Pros are. It seems difficult for the average player to understand how good Pros are without over or underestimating their abilities.

[Chilli Dipper]

56 minutes ago, Jeremie Boop said:

A bit OT, but it's a bit strange to see this statement. Typically it's that, in general, people underestimate how good Pros are. It seems difficult for the average player to understand how good Pros are without over or underestimating their abilities.

The difficulty of the courses the pros play on is also overestimated. Tournament conditions are a step above what the average golfer is used to, but for the most part, the tour isn't playing on courses whose operations revolve around hosting a championship event every year. Resorts and private clubs still need to keep their flagship courses open (and playable) to paying guests and members for the other 51 weeks of the year. Simply put, the pros aren't facing U.S. Open conditions every week.

When the field averages even par for the week at any given tour event, it's in conditions that aren't radically different from what normal golfers face at that course during the rest of the year. Now, that's shooting a 71 or 72 on a course where a scratch player can expect to shoot 75 or 76, so these guys are good. They've also had days of practice on the course to prepare, have dialed in to the speed of the greens, and have every yardage and every slope charted out. Playing blind on an unfamiliar course, a pro may get into a groove and card a score in the low 60s. But it won't be easy.

[iacas]

1 hour ago, Jeremie Boop said:

A bit OT, but it's a bit strange to see this statement. Typically it's that, in general, people underestimate how good Pros are. It seems difficult for the average player to understand how good Pros are without over or underestimating their abilities.

I should have added "from 50 to 125 yards." They don't get up and down nearly as often as people seem to think.

PGA Tour players are way better at the longer shots than people tend to realize.

[dove694]

2 hours ago, Phil McGleno said:

You are not getting it-What is harder a 225-yard hole or a 235-yard hole? Or a 325 yard hole? Or 425? Or 525?

If they are already at 56 just playing 225-yard holes adding length only adds to their score.

Well firstly I think a 225 yard Par 3 is vastly harder than a 325 or 425 yard Par 4. But I do understand that the scoring average on the Par 3 would be lower. I hear ya. I get it.

[dove694]

3 hours ago, iacas said:

Go back and re-read what I've said in this thread, to you and to others. I think my points are valid, and I think you're vastly over-estimating how good PGA Tour players are.

 

  Hide contents

Things aren't looking so good for the "oh, they would shoot 61 easy" crowd.

You do make some good points. I do know the game very well and believe I know what I'm talking about. I simply don't think that I'm vastly overestimating how good they are. I think the chances of them shooting 63 or 64 on my personal home course is pretty high, and that's what the thread is about! If your home course is 7400 yards with a rating of 74.5 and a slope of 144, then yeah they are probably going to shoot over 70, but in my case (relatively easy course, 3000+ foot elevation, good conditions, etc) I just don't see them shooting in the high 60s or worse. 

[iacas]

27 minutes ago, dove694 said:

Well firstly I think a 225 yard Par 3 is vastly harder than a 325 or 425 yard Par 4. But I do understand that the scoring average on the Par 3 would be lower. I hear ya. I get it.

It's not. It's significantly easier. Like 0.8 strokes or more easier. You're not doing yourself favors by considering a hole relative to par. It would take a lot more strokes to get around an 18-hole par five course than an 18-hole par three course.

12 minutes ago, dove694 said:

You do make some good points. I do know the game very well and believe I know what I'm talking about. I simply don't think that I'm vastly overestimating how good they are.

Then refute the stats. On 360 or 380-yard holes PGA Tour pros don't get super low scores. They don't birdie all that often.

They don't get up and down from 63 or 110 yards very often.

Come to the discussion with more than "I think that…".

12 minutes ago, dove694 said:

I think the chances of them shooting 63 or 64 on my personal home course is pretty high, and that's what the thread is about!

Yeah, but I know a bit about golf too, and I say 63 is pretty unlikely. And here's the difference - I'm sharing why I think this, with data.

12 minutes ago, dove694 said:

If your home course is 7400 yards with a rating of 74.5 and a slope of 144, then yeah they are probably going to shoot over 70

I've talked about a 6800-yard course and shared the data from that.

Since nobody knows what your course is - maybe every green is a bowl that funnels the ball toward the hole, and there's no rough, nor trees, and it's 6300 yards long - we can only really discuss generalities.

You've made statements here that do not jive with reality. PGA Tour pros are not getting up and down with their wedges all that frequently. Adding 2800 yards to the 4000-yard par-three course is going to add a lot of shots to the score, taking it from 56 to… something above 63.

---

Golf is Hard®.

At the end of the day, you're still whacking a ball into a very, very small hole hundreds of yards away… with bushes and trees and tall grass to fuck with your ball. And a pool, and a sandbox…

[DannyMac]

My home course is home to a Mackenzie Tour (PGA Canada) event that was the highest scored event during the year at +1.005 over par scoring average. The course converts the 2nd 510 yd Par 5 into a 490 yd par 4. I do not have the adjusted course rating to include this change but the standard back tee yardage and rating is 6630 yards 72.6/128.  The level of play of a everyday PGA tour pro is substantially better than an PGA Canada Tour member in terms of consistency and handling pressure, but the skill level would not be, in my opinion, any more than a 5 shot difference on average. Taking into account non-tournament conditions I'd expect to see Mid to Upper 60's (65-68) from an average PGA Tour member stopping by for a round.

This is only my opinion on the hypothetical situation and I don't expect everyone to agree with me. Cool topic!