Can someone short off the tee become #1 again?

[lastings]

2 hours ago, billchao said:

You're mixing and matching years. In 2015, Spieth's 291.8 average driving distance was T78, towards the top of the middle third or slightly above average. This is basically the same position as his 295.6 average in 2017, good for T75.

In 2017, 290 was right on the cusp of being bottom third, but in 2015 290 was just about the median.

BTW, in 2014 Spieth's average was 289.7, good for T89, which is right at the median that year. Spieth has never been bottom third in driving distance in his career, with 2014 being his lowest year and 2016 being his highest (51st). He's above average in distance and he's actually closer to top third than bottom third. He's not a short hitter.

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What I think throws a lot of people off is they keep comparing him to a guy like Dustin Johnson, failing to realize that DJ and his closest peers are in a separate tier altogether. There's a lot of separation at the top.

In 2017, DJ was 2nd in driving distance at 315, which was about 6 yards longer than the #10 guys (Tony Finau and Kevin Tway). Those guys were 6 yards longer than Ryan Palmer at 27 who was 6 yards longer than Cody Gribble at 60. DJ is head and shoulders above most of the top third in driving distance.

I know I mixed years.  Even pointed it out in an edit.  All I was saying was that it is certainly possible for a 290 hitter to be #1 in the world when the leaders are at 315+.  Spieths 2015 proves that.    This year 290 would bottom 1/3.  

Quibbling over the 6 yards that Spieth has on the bottom 1/3 this year is putting way too much weight on those 6 yards. Remember that Spieth is currently a good 20 yds shorter than the current #1 and is more than capable of re-taking that spot.  If he lost 6 yds off the tee, he would still be capable of re-taking that spot.  His 2014/2015 certainly proves that.  

All I am saying is that it’s not an impossibility to think a bottom 1/3 could get that spot.  Not probable, because the shorter hitters are at a disadvantage.  But possible that someone could be so supremely talented in approach that they could overcome that. 

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by lastings

[lastings]

To put it another way, if you took 2015 Jordan Spieth and put him in 2017, he would still be the worlds #1.  He had a better scoring average than 2017 #1 Dustin Johnson, despite the fact that he only drive the ball 291.    Unless you think the courses drastically changed in 2 years, it’s certainly possible given the right player on a hot year. 

[iacas]

22 minutes ago, lastings said:

I know I mixed years.  Even pointed it out in an edit.  All I was saying was that it is certainly possible for a 290 hitter to be #1 in the world when the leaders are at 315+.  Spieths 2015 proves that.    This year 290 would bottom 1/3.

You're still mixing years. Conditions may have been different, etc. Who knows?

22 minutes ago, lastings said:

Quibbling over the 6 yards that Spieth has on the bottom 1/3 this year is putting way too much weight on those 6 yards.

Not when those same six yards also put him in the top 1/3, too, in the other direction.

Jordan is not a "short hitter." Never really has been.

 

[lastings]

21 minutes ago, iacas said:

You're still mixing years. Conditions may have been different, etc. Who knows?

Not when those same six yards also put him in the top 1/3, too, in the other direction.

Jordan is not a "short hitter." Never really has been.

 

Meh.  Spieth has consistently been 20-25 yds shorter than the biggest guys, and has the ability to outplay them all. 

When you use a word like never, you’d better hope there is bigger separation than what you’re looking at now. It’s definitely possible.  

[iacas]

1 minute ago, lastings said:

Meh. Spieth has consistently been 20-25 yds shorter than the biggest guys, and has the ability to outplay them all.

Did I say anything about that? No. I said he's never been in the short 1/3. He's been average to above average.

1 minute ago, lastings said:

When you use a word like never, you’d better hope there is bigger separation than what you’re looking at now. It’s definitely possible.  

I didn't say the word "never" the way your reply here implies, and it's disingenuous of you to have written that.

I said Spieth has never really been a "short hitter." He has not been. That is a fact, not a prediction of the future.

[lastings]

2 minutes ago, iacas said:

 

I didn't say the word "never" the way your reply here implies, and it's disingenuous of you to have written that.

It’s not at all intentionally disingenuous.  I wrote what I wrote based on the poll which asked if a bottom 1/3 hitter can be #1 again.  I feel like that implies “ever”. 

You’re simply retorting my point that spieth is close enough to the bottom 1/3 to suggest that it is definitely possible. 

[iacas]

Just now, lastings said:

It’s not at all intentionally disingenuous.  I wrote what I wrote based on the poll which asked if a bottom 1/3 hitter can be #1 again.  I feel like that implies “ever”. 

The poll doesn't have the word "never" or "ever." You quoted me, and I used the word "never," but it referred to the past, not a prediction of the future.

1 minute ago, lastings said:

You’re simply retorting my point that spieth is close enough to the bottom 1/3 to suggest that it is definitely possible. 

Nah. I'm pointing out that he's closer to the top 1/3.

[billchao]

1 hour ago, lastings said:

All I was saying was that it is certainly possible for a 290 hitter to be #1 in the world when the leaders are at 315+.  Spieths 2015 proves that.    This year 290 would bottom 1/3.

You can't take 2015 Spieth and say he's a short hitter in 2018 as support for your argument that short hitters can be #1. That's mixing years and cherry picking stats.

In 2015, when he was #1, he finished T78 in driving distance. This year so far he's averaging 300.3 and is currently 66th. He's not hitting 290 this year so saying 290 is short this year is irrelevant.

1 hour ago, lastings said:

Quibbling over the 6 yards that Spieth has on the bottom 1/3 this year is putting way too much weight on those 6 yards. 

It's as if you're implying that Spieth is an insignificant yardage from being a short hitter, whereas I have demonstrated with stats over the last 5 years that suggest he isn't. Far from it. He's consistently in the top of the middle third.

The closest he's ever been to being a short hitter was the one year he finished right smack in the middle of the tour.

1 hour ago, lastings said:

Remember that Spieth is currently a good 20 yds shorter than the current #1 and is more than capable of re-taking that spot.  If he lost 6 yds off the tee, he would still be capable of re-taking that spot.  His 2014/2015 certainly proves that.  

Nobody will argue that he can't retake #1. We're arguing that he doesn't qualify as a short hitter.

FWIW the current leader in driving distance is Tony Finau, who is averaging 28.8 yards farther than Spieth and actually losing 0.091 strokes off the tee to Jordan.

1 hour ago, lastings said:

All I am saying is that it’s not an impossibility to think a bottom 1/3 could get that spot.  Not probable, because the shorter hitters are at a disadvantage.  But possible that someone could be so supremely talented in approach that they could overcome that. 

Again, I agree with you. It's not impossible, just highly improbable.

Forget Jordan Spieth for a minute and look at the list of names that are actually at the bottom third of the tour in driving distance (I like to use 2017 to start because it's a complete year so the sample size is better). Tell me which one of those guys are capable of becoming #1.

46 minutes ago, lastings said:

To put it another way, if you took 2015 Jordan Spieth and put him in 2017, he would still be the worlds #1.  He had a better scoring average than 2017 #1 Dustin Johnson, despite the fact that he only drive the ball 291.    Unless you think the courses drastically changed in 2 years, it’s certainly possible given the right player on a hot year. 

Again, irrelevant. Jordan Spieth is not a short hitter. If your entire argument is based on that flawed notion, I don't really have anything else to say.

10 minutes ago, iacas said:

Did I say anything about that? No. I said he's never been in the short 1/3. He's been average to above average.

Right. I mentioned it before, but just because he's shorter than other hitters on tour doesn't actually make him a short hitter.

3 minutes ago, lastings said:

It’s not at all intentionally disingenuous.  I wrote what I wrote based on the poll which asked if a bottom 1/3 hitter can be #1 again.  I feel like that implies “ever”. 

You're arguing semantics though. I answered "no, but..." partially based on thr fallacy of absolutes, but the improbability of it occurring was strong enough for me to vote no.

I even mentioned that I'm pretty sure Luke Donald is the only bottom third hitter to be #1 for a significant length of time, suggesting that his time as #1 was more of an anomaly rather than the end of an era in golf.

10 minutes ago, lastings said:

You’re simply retorting my point that spieth is close enough to the bottom 1/3 to suggest that it is definitely possible. 

Spieth is as close to being bottom third as he is to top 30. Yet you're only suggesting he's a short hitter when he's actually closer to the top than he is to the bottom.

[lastings]

1 minute ago, iacas said:

The poll doesn't have the word "never" or "ever." 

The poll says can a short hitter be #1 again.  Doesn’t say in the next year.  Doesn’t say in the next 10 years.  Doesn’t indicate any time frame.  So, I’m lead to believe it is referring to “ever”.  If I am wrong to assume that, I am mistaken.  

4 minutes ago, iacas said:

You quoted me. 

I used the quote feature to signify who I was responding to. 

We may be on different pages here.  My only point is simply to suggest that Spieth is most definitely capable of being #1.  There are only 6 yards that separate Spieth from the bottom 1/3.  I don’t believe that gap is enough for me to believe someone 6 years shorter can make a run at #1 just as well.  I just think Spieths ability to outplay people 25 yards longer than he is, is the eveidence of that.

 

[iacas]

1 minute ago, lastings said:

We may be on different pages here.  My only point is simply to suggest that Spieth is most definitely capable of being #1.

Spieth is not a short hitter.

2 minutes ago, lastings said:

The poll says can a short hitter be #1 again.

You said "never" right after you quoted me saying "never" (about something different). Silly me for thinking you were talking to me…

[lastings]

Got it guys.  Spieth is not a short hitter. 

Unfortunately, the perfect example doesn’t exist right now.  Spieths ability to overcome massive distance discrepancies just simply lead me believe that it is possible for supremely talented short hitter to come along and do it. 

4 minutes ago, iacas said:

Spieth is not a short hitter.

You said "never" right after you quoted me saying "never" (about something different). Silly me for thinking you were talking to me…

To be honest, that was an actual coincidence.  I was not referring to you saying spieth never has been a short hitter.   Sorry for the confusion. 

[iacas]

4 minutes ago, lastings said:

Got it guys.  Spieth is not a short hitter. 

It's the entire basis for your argument. I get what you're driving at. I really do. But those six yards matter. Those same six yards get him almost into the Top 30, too, as others have noted.

This is more relevant:

10 minutes ago, billchao said:

Forget Jordan Spieth for a minute and look at the list of names that are actually at the bottom third of the tour in driving distance (I like to use 2017 to start because it's a complete year so the sample size is better). Tell me which one of those guys are capable of becoming #1.

Here's the list:

Brad Fritsch
Miguel Angel Carballo
Johnson Wagner
Ryan Moore
Rod Pampling
Jonathan Randolph
Steven Bowditch
C.T. Pan
Tyrone Van Aswegen
John Huh
Nicholas Lindheim
Daniel Summerhays
Chris Kirk
Zach Johnson
Chris Stroud
Derek Fathauer
Geoff Ogilvy
Webb Simpson
Brett Drewitt
Kyle Reifers
Chad Campbell
Matt Kuchar
William McGirt
Chez Reavie
Fabián Gómez
Tom Hoge
Ricky Barnes
Michael Thompson
Ernie Els
Ryan Blaum
Mark Anderson
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Mark Hubbard
Vaughn Taylor
Peter Malnati
K.J. Choi
Alex Cejka
Brandt Snedeker
Chad Collins
David Hearn
Cameron Tringale
Roberto Castro
Steve Wheatcroft
Carl Pettersson
Wesley Bryan
Graeme McDowell
Tim Wilkinson
Spencer Levin
Ryan Armour
Brian Gay
Ben Crane
Luke Donald
D.A. Points
Greg Chalmers
Bryce Molder
Steven Alker
Billy Hurley III
Jason Bohn
Ken Duke
Søren Kjeldsen
Zac Blair
Brian Stuard
Jim Furyk

[lastings]

If the question is, will any of those guys become #1?  I agree with you, the answer is no.  The most talented players in the group are too old to improve that much.  But, Kuchar has been as high as 4.  Zach Johnson has been 6.  Sooner or later younger and maybe more talented versions of those guys are gonna come along.

[iacas]

13 minutes ago, lastings said:

If the question is, will any of those guys become #1?  I agree with you, the answer is no.  The most talented players in the group are too old to improve that much.  But, Kuchar has been as high as 4.  Zach Johnson has been 6.  Sooner or later younger and maybe more talented versions of those guys are gonna come along.

Odds are against it.

[lastings]

1 minute ago, iacas said:

Odds are against it.

Ever? 

Just now, lastings said:

Ever? 

Sorry..   had to do it.  

[iacas]

Just now, lastings said:

Ever? 

Well, I’m not talking about an infinite timescale.

[Piz]

For someone in the bottom third, in driving distance, to reach the #1 WGR; it would first be required that they climbed their way out of the bottom third...in driving distance.

[mvmac]

I voted No, Luke Donald's quote basically said it all.

On 2/11/2018 at 10:13 AM, Gunsmoke said:

I voted yes , I'm still old school and believe scoring is done on the green not how far off the tee a player is. Yes I know it's easier to get close hitting a 9 iron then it is swinging a 5 iron. A short hitter just has to spend more time on the range....

Doesn't matter how much time they spend on the range, think of where they tuck the pins now on almost every green. They guy hitting a 5-iron might not be able to hold the green, let along get it close.