Stableford scores and sandbagging

[MacDutch]

The other day I played a competition where Stableford scores are involved. What I try to figure out is the probability of our Stableford scores as a team. We played an Interclub competition, where the best 8 scores out of 12 players are added. That becomes the team result. This is the way they play Interclub competition in Spain (Andalusia). 

I am under the impression that (trying not to be too harsh) in my surroundings there is a more then average amount of sandbaggers. But I miss the statistics to build my case. 

If you score 36 Stableford points, that is equivalent to play to your current index. One point more is one stroke better etc. Off course the weatherconditions are not taken into account, so statistics might be a bit off, but in Andalusia the weather is mostly sunny and not a lot of wind.

So the results were (we only played with 10 team members): 31, 34, 34, 35, 37, 38, 38, 40, 41 and 43 Stableford points. All players hcp 8-18. I think this is outlier score, I think this is proof of sandbagging to the max. I would love to know the probability of these scores, but I don’t have the statistics to build my case. Tried to find some info but could not find more then ‘65% you play 33 or worse’.

Anybody here that could help me?

@iacas you are well informed about where to find golfstatistics of all kinds.

p.s. My score was 35 

Edited June 19, 2018 by MacDutch

[alleztom]

I don't know statistics all that well, but I know n=1 is not a very good way of proving anything.

[Moxley]

You may be able to find some sample probabilities. 

If you want to put your own data bank together, this is very easy to do - loads of golf clubs publish their results online, so you can just get enough to make your own distribution (albeit, it won't be perfect). Somewhere where you can access lots of results, like howdidido , might help you with this, but as I say, loads of clubs publish results. 

I don't have the stats, but I'd say roughly 5% will get 40+ pts, and 15% chance of shooting handicap or better. 40 will win many club competitions. 

Your results, 6/10 players shooting handicap or better,  look unlikely , but I don't think you're going to be able to prove anything from them. 

If these results were completely random scores, then they'd be very unlikely, but given they occurred together, maybe there was something about that group or the course/conditions that made it easier. Perhaps most of the group got their handicap from largely medal events on a punishing course. Maybe the event course you played was a good risk/reward course that suited stableford? perhaps the weather was good? 

I'd be surprised if sandbagging was the case. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, but I find a lot of golfers take more pride in their handicap than they do in winning individual events, so it's often limited to the few who are motivated by (unfairly) winning prize money.

[saevel25]

2 hours ago, MacDutch said:

If you score 36 Stableford points, that is equivalent to play to your current index. One point more is one stroke better etc. Off course the weatherconditions are not taken into account, so statistics might be a bit off, but in Andalusia the weather is mostly sunny and not a lot of wind.

This is based on the course rating, not par. A golfer beats their handicap differential only 20% of the time.

http://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/handicapping/handicap-manual.html#!rule-14410
 

[Killa]

In Stableford hcp rating if you are an 18 and you shoot 43 points your hcp will only drop by 2,1. So you shoot 11 over and your hcp only drops to 15,9...

For the lower hcps it’s even worse. A round that’s 7 strokes below your hcp will only drop your hcp by 0,7-1,4 depending on your staring hcp. 

 

And your hcp only drops when you play official tournaments. So I’m a 31 and the next time I play a tournament I will definitely be called a sandbagger as I will probably shoot somewhere between 5-10 under my hcp as I just don’t play many tournaments...

[MacDutch]

9 hours ago, saevel25 said:

This is based on the course rating, not par. A golfer beats their handicap differential only 20% of the time.

http://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/handicapping/handicap-manual.html#!rule-14410
 

This is the info I was looking for. It tells me if I got it right, that only once in 389 rounds an 18 hcp brings in a score of 7 strokes better than his handicap. 

Thanks a lot!

[Shorty]

6 hours ago, Killa said:

In Stableford hcp rating if you are an 18 and you shoot 43 points your hcp will only drop by 2,1. So you shoot 11 over and your hcp only drops to 15,9...

For the lower hcps it’s even worse. A round that’s 7 strokes below your hcp will only drop your hcp by 0,7-1,4 depending on your staring hcp. 

 

Nonsense.

Your handicap might actually go UP if the score that drops out is higher.

[iacas]

10 hours ago, saevel25 said:

This is based on the course rating, not par. A golfer beats their handicap differential only 20% of the time.

http://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/handicapping/handicap-manual.html#!rule-14410

Also: http://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/handicapping/handicap-manual-2012-2015.html#!rule-14410

But remember, in Stableford… you're not really talking about your score. You're talking about points. A net triple and a net eagle result in 4 points, the same as two net pars, but you're still net +1.

The difference is pretty small, but it can shift the numbers slightly from the two charts above.

[Shorty]

The rule of thumb for Stableford scores according to myself and I assume the majority of players who play competition golf is roughly as follows. Bear in mind that we probably play 4 out of 8 out of 10 rounds ( if you play in competition twice a week) as Stableford competitions and nowadays stroke scores are converted to stableford for HANDICAPPING purposes - not for competition results. Nett 76 can be 36 points if you have 10 on a hole because the 10 scores as a wipe (the score one  above a 1 pointer which would be a double on a hole you get no shots on.

36 points make you happy - you like to think you can get that 1/4 or 1/5 of the time

Between 30 and 34 is a very common score

Less than 30 is a crap round - but you know you're going to get 

You l expect to get 37 to 38 maybe once very 6 or 7 rounds 

A score of 40+ is quite common if your handicap is, say, 12 or above.

Guys playing off 18 are probably going to score 40+ several times a year 

A score of 43 points raises ZERO eyebrows if the person is playing off a handicap of 12 or over.

In fine conditions if you walk off with 38 points on a Saturday there is no way you expect to win the competition.

A person in B or C grade with 40 points in fine conditions can fully expect to be second or even third or fourth.

In other words, an 18 handicapper who get 43 points quite probably feels he has left a shot or two out there. It is not an unusual score at all.

The attachment shows a recent Saturday at my club. A, B and C grade. Handicaps are in the right hand column. Notice the guy off +2 with a score of 4 under. There is also a guy off 8 with 1 over.

These are unusually high scores because the course is being modified and the weather would have been perfect. My point is that high stableford scores do not imply sandbagging.

 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Shorty

[MacDutch]

13 hours ago, Killa said:

In Stableford hcp rating if you are an 18 and you shoot 43 points your hcp will only drop by 2,1. So you shoot 11 over and your hcp only drops to 15,9...

 

7 hours ago, Shorty said:

Nonsense.

Your handicap might actually go UP if the score that drops out is higher.

 @Shortyyou know anything about the handicap system @Killa was talking about? In the EGA-system it is like he said. Bit ignorant to call it nonsense.

[MacDutch]

1 hour ago, Shorty said:

The rule of thumb for Stableford scores according to myself and I assume the majority of players who play competition golf is roughly as follows. Bear in mind that we probably play 4 out of 8 out of 10 rounds ( if you play in competition twice a week) as Stableford competitions and nowadays stroke scores are converted to stableford for HANDICAPPING purposes - not for competition results. Nett 76 can be 36 points if you have 10 on a hole because the 10 scores as a wipe (the score one  above a 1 pointer which would be a double on a hole you get no shots on.

36 points make you happy - you like to think you can get that 1/4 or 1/5 of the time

Between 30 and 34 is a very common score

Less than 30 is a crap round - but you know you're going to get 

You l expect to get 37 to 38 maybe once very 6 or 7 rounds 

A score of 40+ is quite common if your handicap is, say, 12 or above.

Guys playing off 18 are probably going to score 40+ several times a year 

A score of 43 points raises ZERO eyebrows if the person is playing off a handicap of 12 or over.

In fine conditions if you walk off with 38 points on a Saturday there is no way you expect to win the competition.

A person in B or C grade with 40 points in fine conditions can fully expect to be second or even third or fourth.

In other words, an 18 handicapper who get 43 points quite probably feels he has left a shot or two out there. It is not an unusual score at all.

The attachment shows a recent Saturday at my club. A, B and C grade. Handicaps are in the right hand column. Notice the guy off +2 with a score of 4 under. There is also a guy off 8 with 1 over.

These are unusually high scores because the course is being modified and the weather would have been perfect. My point is that high stableford scores do not imply sandbagging.

@Shorty your rule of thumb is way of. If a course is changed ( for example more then 150 meters shorter) you can not use it for handicap reasons. So I understand why your eyebrows don’t raise but thats because it looks like you use the system incorrect.

Also I told that the wheather was good, but thats common here in Andalusia. We played from the official tees, which we allways do when playing competition. Check the links other people gave here to get a feeling about a score of 43 points as a true 18 capper. 

 

[Killa]

14 hours ago, Shorty said:

Nonsense.

Your handicap might actually go UP if the score that drops out is higher.

Are you completely sure that the Australian HCP system and the EGA handicap systems are the same? AFAIK they are not. 

 

In Europe there is not an 8/10 rule. No scores drop out. After each qualifying round the hcp adjusts accordingly. 

[Killa]

6 hours ago, MacDutch said:

@Shorty your rule of thumb is way of. If a course is changed ( for example more then 150 meters shorter) you can not use it for handicap reasons. So I understand why your eyebrows don’t raise but thats because it looks like you use the system incorrect.

Also I told that the wheather was good, but thats common here in Andalusia. We played from the official tees, which we allways do when playing competition. Check the links other people gave here to get a feeling about a score of 43 points as a true 18 capper. 

 

 

Well in the EGA system it’s hard to know if someone is a true 18 hcp unless they play a lot of scoring rounds. Because it drops really slowly an 18 capper can score a 43, and I don’t think it’s really that far out of the norm. 

For our tournaments in the under 36hcp category usually a score in the low 40s wins  

 

[MacDutch]

1 hour ago, Killa said:

 

Well in the EGA system it’s hard to know if someone is a true 18 hcp unless they play a lot of scoring rounds. Because it drops really slowly an 18 capper can score a 43, and I don’t think it’s really that far out of the norm. 

For our tournaments in the under 36hcp category usually a score in the low 40s wins  

 

Yes it is out of the norm. It only happens once in 389 rounds. See the statistics provided in the links above. There also is a big difference between the probability between a score of 40,41,42 and better scores.

Your handicap should reflect your golf-abilities. If people seldom play qualifying rounds, and play a lot of practice rounds,  their handicap could well be off. This is called sandbagging.

[Killa]

13 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

Yes it is out of the norm. It only happens once in 389 rounds. See the statistics provided in the links above. There also is a big difference between the probability between a score of 40,41,42 and better scores.

Your handicap should reflect your golf-abilities. If people seldom play qualifying rounds, and play a lot of practice rounds,  their handicap could well be off. This is called sandbagging.

That’s called sandbagging in the US hcp system. I only have time to play 3-4 tournament rounds in a season due to work/small children. I do try to move my work a bit during the week so I can shoot a quick 9 holes or a full round here and there without loosing family time. Most of these rounds are me walking as a single. 

And I do practice whenever I have the time - much easier to take 30-45mins than 4-5 hrs  

I’d gladly report it but I can’t. I mean last time out I shot a 42 (unofficial) and I played like crap...