Where the ball is likely to be.

**sjduffers** · August 20, 2015

In the "Lost ball rule is stupid" thread and the "Multiple provisional balls" thread, there is one concept being talked about but I feel it is treated in a different way: the "where the ball is likely to be" concept

In the lost ball case, the notion that one does not know precisely where the ball is (and is thus lost) is what prevents from having a point of reference to drop there and the reason for the stroke and distance rule. "I think it is over there, I saw it bounce once, so it's most likely around here, eg. under some leaf". The possibility that the ball is likely to be is not considered in the rule, or more precisely is considered and rejected. Fine.

In the provisional case, in order to speed up play, a player is allowed to hit his provisional ball several times until it reaches the point where the original ball is likely to be as far or further back from the hole. This of course prevents a player from having 2 balls to consider and deciding which one they like best, an important principle of golf. However, in this case the concept of where the ball is likely to be is used, not the precise (and of course unknown) location of the original ball. There is definitely room for interpretation in that case, in particular when one cannot see the later part of the trajectory of the suspected lost or OB ball.

I don't think there is a real problem, but it is somewhat curious to exclude uncertainty in one case and depend on it in another. Perhaps the other principles of the rule of golf I mentioned are enough to override this discrepancy? Thoughts and comments?

**krupa** · August 20, 2015

I don't see any discrepancy. If you can't find your ball, regardless of how sure you are of it's location, it is lost and so you cannot fairly drop a replacement. When you play a provisional, you're just playing it up to the point where you want to start looking for the possibly-lost ball.

**Fourputt** · August 20, 2015

In the "Lost ball rule is stupid" thread and the "Multiple provisional balls" thread, there is one concept being talked about but I feel it is treated in a different way: the "where the ball is likely to be" concept

In the lost ball case, the notion that one does not know precisely where the ball is (and is thus lost) is what prevents from having a point of reference to drop there and the reason for the stroke and distance rule. "I think it is over there, I saw it bounce once, so it's most likely around here, eg. under some leaf". The possibility that the ball is likely to be is not considered in the rule, or more precisely is considered and rejected. Fine.

In the provisional case, in order to speed up play, a player is allowed to hit his provisional ball several times until it reaches the point where the original ball is likely to be as far or further back from the hole. This of course prevents a player from having 2 balls to consider and deciding which one they like best, an important principle of golf. However, in this case the concept of where the ball is likely to be is used, not the precise (and of course unknown) location of the original ball. There is definitely room for interpretation in that case, in particular when one cannot see the later part of the trajectory of the suspected lost or OB ball.

I don't think there is a real problem, but it is somewhat curious to exclude uncertainty in one case and depend on it in another. Perhaps the other principles of the rule of golf I mentioned are enough to override this discrepancy? Thoughts and comments?

You search where you think the ball most likely ended up. That doesn't mean that you are correct in your assumption (I've found the original ball after it was abandoned, 70 yards across the fairway from the tree under which everyone was searching), but you look in the most likely place. That is all the provisional ball rule is saying. You still don't know anything for sure, so there is no double standard. There is still no specific point that can even be estimated (as with a water hazard), so you can't point to a spot and say that you get 2 clublengths from that point, because there is no such spot which has any foundation in reality.

With the provisional ball, no such precise reference point is necessary. You aren't trying to measure anything. The location is necessarily vague, but it is acceptable because of the situation, i.e. you are saving time by playing the provisional ball, and once you give up the search and play from near that spot where you thought your ball was lost, you abandon the original ball. Nothing illogical about it. They are different procedures with very different requirements, but both satisfy the needs of the situation.

**Jon Hoover** · August 21, 2015

I also think its funny that for water or lateral hazards people never have an issue with where the ball might have gone out, or into the water if you can't find it, unlike the lost ball where people deduce their is no possible way you can come up with a close relative spot to where the ball should be. Oh and to those that say they though it was one place but ends up being somewhere yards away, the same thing happens with lateral or water hazards all the time, but it never becomes an issue.

***iacas*** · August 21, 2015

I also think its funny that for water or lateral hazards people never have an issue with where the ball might have gone out, or into the water if you can't find it, unlike the lost ball where people deduce their is no possible way you can come up with a close relative spot to where the ball should be. Oh and to those that say they though it was one place but ends up being somewhere yards away, the same thing happens with lateral or water hazards all the time, but it never becomes an issue.

I answered this in the other thread, but the rules require virtual certainty wrt water hazards, so people are not regularly 50 yards off like they are with a list ball. If you're not virtually certain your ball is in the water hazard (maybe you did not see it go in), it is lost.

**Fourputt** · August 21, 2015

I also think its funny that for water or lateral hazards people never have an issue with where the ball might have gone out, or into the water if you can't find it, unlike the lost ball where people deduce their is no possible way you can come up with a close relative spot to where the ball should be. Oh and to those that say they though it was one place but ends up being somewhere yards away, the same thing happens with lateral or water hazards all the time, but it never becomes an issue.

You are wrong about this too. It certainly does become an issue if the player and his opponent or fellow competitor have a very different idea of where the ball crossed the margin of the hazard. I've been on one side of such a dispute which was ultimately reported to the committee and the whole group was required to go back out to the spot and explain the circumstances.

My FC, who was halfway across the fairway from me and had a poor viewing angle, insisted that I had dropped 50 yards too close to the hole when taking relief from a lateral water hazard. The other two players and myself all had a better angle to see the line of flight, which sliced into the lateral hazard about 150 yards ahead of me. The fourth guy insisted that the ball didn't slice but went straight in 50 yards farther back, and he protested my drop with the committee. I had consulted with the other two FC's who were standing more or less in back of me with a good view when I played the shot, and I had gone forward to drop when the fourth guy made his complaint. I should have played a second ball under rule 3-3 for insurance, but I was so certain that he was wrong that I just ignored his tirade. I was fortunate that with the backing of the other two fellow competitors, my play was vindicated, or I'd have been DQ'ed in the first round of a 3 round tournament.

**dkolo** · August 21, 2015

You are wrong about this too. It certainly does become an issue if the player and his opponent or fellow competitor have a very different idea of where the ball crossed the margin of the hazard. I've been on one side of such a dispute which was ultimately reported to the committee and the whole group was required to go back out to the spot and explain the circumstances.

My FC, who was halfway across the fairway from me and had a poor viewing angle, insisted that I had dropped 50 yards too close to the hole when taking relief from a lateral water hazard. The other two players and myself all had a better angle to see the line of flight, which sliced into the lateral hazard about 150 yards ahead of me. The fourth guy insisted that the ball didn't slice but went straight in 50 yards farther back, and he protested my drop with the committee. I had consulted with the other two FC's who were standing more or less in back of me with a good view when I played the shot, and I had gone forward to drop when the fourth guy made his complaint. I should have played a second ball under rule 3-3 for insurance, but I was so certain that he was wrong that I just ignored his tirade. I was fortunate that with the backing of the other two fellow competitors, my play was vindicated, or I'd have been DQ'ed in the first round of a 3 round tournament.

And scenarios like this are chief among a litany of reasons why "drop where you thought it should be" is completely unworkable in any setting where there's an opponent or a field that has an interest in the accuracy of your drop. Hope you kicked butt in the rest of the tournament!

**Jon Hoover** · August 21, 2015

I answered this in the other thread, but the rules require virtual certainty wrt water hazards, so people are not regularly 50 yards off like they are with a list ball.

If you're not virtually certain your ball is in the water hazard (maybe you did not see it go in), it is lost.

From 300 yrds away off the tee how "virtually certain" can one be? You see the splash but you have no certainty where exactly it went in.

You are wrong about this too. It certainly does become an issue if the player and his opponent or fellow competitor have a very different idea of where the ball crossed the margin of the hazard. I've been on one side of such a dispute which was ultimately reported to the committee and the whole group was required to go back out to the spot and explain the circumstances.

My FC, who was halfway across the fairway from me and had a poor viewing angle, insisted that I had dropped 50 yards too close to the hole when taking relief from a lateral water hazard. The other two players and myself all had a better angle to see the line of flight, which sliced into the lateral hazard about 150 yards ahead of me. The fourth guy insisted that the ball didn't slice but went straight in 50 yards farther back, and he protested my drop with the committee. I had consulted with the other two FC's who were standing more or less in back of me with a good view when I played the shot, and I had gone forward to drop when the fourth guy made his complaint. I should have played a second ball under rule 3-3 for insurance, but I was so certain that he was wrong that I just ignored his tirade. I was fortunate that with the backing of the other two fellow competitors, my play was vindicated, or I'd have been DQ'ed in the first round of a 3 round tournament.

Maybe its been an issue for you, but i guess I play with more laid back people, I nor anyone I've ever played with has had an issue even when money is on the lie, we usually bet. Its like a guy calling fouls playing a 1/2 court basketball game I guess... I suppose it happens I just never see it.

**DrvFrShow** · August 21, 2015

But virtually certain, in the event that you did not actually see it go in a water hazard, if there is no other logical explanation as to where the ball went (i.e. there is nothing but short grass in the area leading up to the hazard and your ball was rolling or bounding in that direction and the hazard is large enough where it is physically impossible that it would have had enough velocity to skip to the other side), it is in the hazard.

I had a similar situation to Fourputt. I've also had disputes with competitors as to where my ball crossed the magic line of a water hazard. Due to where they were sitting in their carts about 30 yds away from the tee there was a difference of 50 yds and a crappy lie. Knowing how far I hit my driver and the trajectory it takes on the driving range before the ball hits the fence on a slice I had it 50 yds further down by one of the marker stakes. In the absence of an official, I played my third shot from an area I spotted in line with where they said it went out and the flag (behind the hazard) and everyone yelling at me "You don't have to hit from there!" - it was the only decent lie for another 100 yds. and I put it on the green with a 4H and got a bogey so it worked out as a wash. The lie I would have had if I'd picked my own drop area would have been worse.

**sjduffers** · August 21, 2015

You search where you think the ball most likely ended up. That doesn't mean that you are correct in your assumption (I've found the original ball after it was abandoned, 70 yards across the fairway from the tree under which everyone was searching), but you look in the most likely place. That is all the provisional ball rule is saying. You still don't know anything for sure, so there is no double standard. There is still no specific point that can even be estimated (as with a water hazard), so you can't point to a spot and say that you get 2 clublengths from that point, because there is no such spot which has any foundation in reality.

With the provisional ball, no such precise reference point is necessary. You aren't trying to measure anything. The location is necessarily vague, but it is acceptable because of the situation, i.e. you are saving time by playing the provisional ball, and once you give up the search and play from near that spot where you thought your ball was lost, you abandon the original ball. Nothing illogical about it. They are different procedures with very different requirements, but both satisfy the needs of the situation.

I see your point. But what happens if in your estimation of where the original ball is likely to be, you think it is further than it really is (a mistake made countless of times, by "optimists" looking for their ball 50 yards ahead of where it is), so you advance your provisional thinking you don't need to search yet, and low and behold when you do search, you find your ball was somewhere behind? You've lost 2 strokes simply because of a poor estimation of where the ball is likely to be. Tough break, no?

**DrvFrShow** · August 21, 2015

But then what do you do on courses where you have blind tee shots? There's a course near my house where on the third hole it's nearly a blind tee shot onto a par 4 fairway. You have to hit the ball just to the right of a bunch of trees. Too far to the right and you're in some serious rough. But you still can't see where your ball lands. As we know if you're a long hitter it could have looked good off the tee and you could have still had it leak into the tall grass (if you're a righty). Do you hit a provisional or two on that hole just in case?

**Martyn W** · August 21, 2015

I see your point. But what happens if in your estimation of where the original ball is likely to be, you think it is further than it really is (a mistake made countless of times, by "optimists" looking for their ball 50 yards ahead of where it is), so you advance your provisional thinking you don't need to search yet, and low and behold when you do search, you find your ball was somewhere behind? You've lost 2 strokes simply because of a poor estimation of where the ball is likely to be. Tough break, no?

No. Good break - the original is still in play(assuming it was found within five minutes). You may play your provisional up to the point you think the original is, doesn't matter if it turns up behind that point.

**bubble** · August 21, 2015

golf rules are not made to hit you on the head. on the contrary. (the hazard rule allows some interpretation. you already lose a shot to drop. as long as you beleive you are not getting an advantage there is no need to determine the point of entry buy exactly a yard or more, just play the spirit and go a little more backwards if the entry point is hard to tell).

just as if you play a provisional 250 yards straight and think your original ball is maybe lost à 220 yards. Yet you dont find it in 2 minutes (3 minutes left to find it). you hit our provisional then find your original ball at about a 270 yards point in 1 minute. It's ok the provisional ball is in play and the first ball out because you thought the original ball was about 220 and you hit a provisional closer to the hole at 250. The rules wont kill you. make double bogey and next time hit a better shot the first time.

other exemple you hit it short from the tee and splash in water on a FW hazard. you drop backwards and play.

then finally you find your ball that bounced on the splash in the middle of the FW. It's ok the dropped ball is in play you had everything to believe your ball was in the water. you take one stroke for the drop from the hazard not 2 strokes for playing the wrong area.

**Fourputt** · August 21, 2015

But then what do you do on courses where you have blind tee shots? There's a course near my house where on the third hole it's nearly a blind tee shot onto a par 4 fairway. You have to hit the ball just to the right of a bunch of trees. Too far to the right and you're in some serious rough. But you still can't see where your ball lands. As we know if you're a long hitter it could have looked good off the tee and you could have still had it leak into the tall grass (if you're a righty). Do you hit a provisional or two on that hole just in case?

I don't see the point of a provisional ball if the results with that would be just as much in doubt as with the original ball. That is a case where you are pretty much stuck with finding the ball or it's the 27-1 walk of shame - actually misnamed, since virtually every golfer who has ever played in competition has made that trip. Sometimes a little embarrassing, but nothing shameful about it. It's more shameful if you just drop and play on, telling yourself that the ball had no right to be lost in the first place.

Originally Posted by Jon Hoover

Quote:

Originally Posted by iacas

I answered this in the other thread, but the rules require virtual certainty wrt water hazards, so people are not regularly 50 yards off like they are with a list ball.

If you're not virtually certain your ball is in the water hazard (maybe you did not see it go in), it is lost.

From 300 yrds away off the tee how "virtually certain" can one be? You see the splash but you have no certainty where exactly it went in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fourputt

You are wrong about this too. It certainly does become an issue if the player and his opponent or fellow competitor have a very different idea of where the ball crossed the margin of the hazard. I've been on one side of such a dispute which was ultimately reported to the committee and the whole group was required to go back out to the spot and explain the circumstances.

My FC, who was halfway across the fairway from me and had a poor viewing angle, insisted that I had dropped 50 yards too close to the hole when taking relief from a lateral water hazard. The other two players and myself all had a better angle to see the line of flight, which sliced into the lateral hazard about 150 yards ahead of me. The fourth guy insisted that the ball didn't slice but went straight in 50 yards farther back, and he protested my drop with the committee. I had consulted with the other two FC's who were standing more or less in back of me with a good view when I played the shot, and I had gone forward to drop when the fourth guy made his complaint. I should have played a second ball under rule 3-3 for insurance, but I was so certain that he was wrong that I just ignored his tirade. I was fortunate that with the backing of the other two fellow competitors, my play was vindicated, or I'd have been DQ'ed in the first round of a 3 round tournament.

Maybe its been an issue for you, but i guess I play with more laid back people, I nor anyone I've ever played with has had an issue even when money is on the lie, we usually bet. Its like a guy calling fouls playing a 1/2 court basketball game I guess... I suppose it happens I just never see it.

You can be as laid back as you want when you aren't playing tournament golf. I averaged about 12 competitions per season for 22 years, both stroke play and match play. Knowing and playing by the rules for both formats wasn't an option. There were usually a couple of disqualifications each year for one thing or another because guys thought they could play like they did with their buddies and it doesn't work that way in tournament golf. In a Men's Club of 250 average Joes there will always be some players who are a bit vague on how to follow certain procedures. Fortunately, there was usually at least one more experienced player in the group to set a confused player straight before he got himself in trouble.

**sjduffers** · August 21, 2015

No. Good break - the original is still in play(assuming it was found within five minutes). You may play your provisional up to the point you think the original is, doesn't matter if it turns up behind that point.

Really? Good to know. I would have thought otherwise.

From now on, I'm gonna think I hit my drives further than I actually do (just like most people, right?)! (That last part is in jest, of course).

***iacas*** · August 21, 2015

From 300 yrds away off the tee how "virtually certain" can one be? You see the splash but you have no certainty where exactly it went in.

The term "virtually certain" is in the Rules of Golf. So, you'd better be awfully darn certain your ball is in the hazard.

Plus, you can trace the ball flight. If you saw the ball go in the hazard (to be virtually certain it is in), then you can draw the line and figure out where it crossed the hazard line.

As I said I answered this in the other thread.

And I'll ignore your 300-yard ball flight as that likely doesn't happen to you… or me…

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