NCAA Football 2019

[David in FL]

4 hours ago, Vinsk said:

All good points. But the lurking issue for me is how OSU performed for more than half the game against Wisconsin.

Or how Wisconsin performed for more than a half against OSU...

...and it was a 14 point lead.  

 

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, David in FL said:

Or how Wisconsin performed for more than a half against OSU...

...and it was a 14 point lead.  

 

 

 

OSU's turnover cost them about 9 points in terms of value. I suspect that high success rate for Q2 (52% for Wisconsin) came from the last drive in the half. Something like 3 or 4 plays in under 1 minute, going like 70 yards. 

I wonder how the game would be if OSU got a field goal instead of a turnover, and just tackled Taylor on the first run of that last drive of the half. 

Man, look at the halftime adjustment for OSU on Wisconsins success rate, yikes!!!

 

 

[saevel25]

Looking at the LSU versus OU game. 

Looking at this a bit more, I think I would put it this way. 

OU has a much more potent Offense. They run the ball better than LSU and Pass the ball equally as well. I think LSU uses the short passing game a bit more in their offense, but OU's rating is just behind LSU and they push the ball more downfield (higher yards per attempt).

LSU does have the better defense by a good margin. LSU Ranked 27th in Rush per Attempt versus OU at 56th. LSU Ranked 10th in passer rating defense versus OU at 48th. 

The biggest issue would be LSU's game against Mississippi. OU likes to run the ball at 60% of the time. LSU gave up 402 yards rushing to Ole Miss. Ole Miss. QB ran for over 200 yards. Jalen Hurts leads OU in rushing at 1255 yards. You throw in a bit of that running game plan and that OU passes the ball really well. 

I think the stats say something like 37-31 LSU... 

I'll go with the upset, OU 42 LSU 38

[Vinsk]

7 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Looking at the LSU versus OU game. 

Looking at this a bit more, I think I would put it this way. 

OU has a much more potent Offense. They run the ball better than LSU and Pass the ball equally as well. I think LSU uses the short passing game a bit more in their offense, but OU's rating is just behind LSU and they push the ball more downfield (higher yards per attempt).

LSU does have the better defense by a good margin. LSU Ranked 27th in Rush per Attempt versus OU at 56th. LSU Ranked 10th in passer rating defense versus OU at 48th. 

The biggest issue would be LSU's game against Mississippi. OU likes to run the ball at 60% of the time. LSU gave up 402 yards rushing to Ole Miss. Ole Miss. QB ran for over 200 yards. Jalen Hurts leads OU in rushing at 1255 yards. You throw in a bit of that running game plan and that OU passes the ball really well. 

I think the stats say something like 37-31 LSU... 

I'll go with the upset, OU 42 LSU 38

Completely agree. My concern with OU is them stopping Burrow for those 3rd down conversions. And like you said..the short passing can eat OU defense alive. Those two tactics may prove devastating for OU. However if Hurts and Lamb are on their top performances...OU will be a formidable opponent. 
OU 38 LSU 35

[saevel25]

Also, I just heard that no #1 team has won the NC in the playoff era... Hmm.. Maybe bad luck for LSU 😉

[saevel25]

Time to nerd out, Offensive Efficiency for 3rd and 4th down for different types of base defenses. 

Man, that strange 2-4-5 defense does pretty well. Maybe when it comes to 3rd and long that you should switch out for pure speed. Two down lineman, 4 linebackers and 5 DB's. 

Looks like the base 4-3-4 isn't the best of the more tradition base defenses (4-3-4, 4-2-5, or the 3-4-4). 

[dennyjones]

55 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Looks like the base 4-3-4 isn't the best of the more tradition base defenses (4-3-4, 4-2-5, or the 3-4-4). 

I almost thought you were talking soccer...

Michigan use to have a nasty habit of going into a prevent defense and losing games late.    I believe in today's game if you give the QB enough time, they will find an open receiver or make a decent run.   Did you see Tom Brady run in the game against KC?   Even old guys, given enough time will make a play.  

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

I almost thought you were talking soccer...

Michigan use to have a nasty habit of going into a prevent defense and losing games late.    I believe in today's game if you give the QB enough time, they will find an open receiver or make a decent run.   Did you see Tom Brady run in the game against KC?   Even old guys, given enough time will make a play.  

Fivethirtyeight did an article on when the Dolphins sent 8 man pressure. 

The Dolphins Threw Eight Players Into A Blitz. Were They Trying To Lose? | FiveThirtyEight

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Some commentators immediately accused the Dolphins coaches of being complicit in the tank.

It looks like 5 man pressure is the optimal amount. I think that makes sense. You can disguise 5 man pressure, and run a lot of different blitz packages. Also, most teams protect with 5 or 6 man fronts. So, its the best chance to get a couple one v one matchups at against the O-line. 

 

[saevel25]

Comparing OSU versus Clemson Roster (247 Recruit Ratings)

Biggest Matchups
1. Clemson's WR versus OSU's DB/S
2. OSU's DE versus Clemson's OL

Maybe an unrecognized advantage, OSU's backups are really really good. There looks to be a step down in talent in Clemson's backups. 

[Vinsk]

2 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Comparing OSU versus Clemson Roster (247 Recruit Ratings)

Biggest Matchups
1. Clemson's WR versus OSU's DB/S
2. OSU's DE versus Clemson's OL

Maybe an unrecognized advantage, OSU's backups are really really good. There looks to be a step down in talent in Clemson's backups. 

I’m just not a real fan with comparing teams that essentially played in two different leagues. Numbers are generated from games. It matters who a team is playing. The video earlier was wrong about ‘Vegas doesn’t care who you play, it’s how you play.’ That’s not true. This is why UCF wasn’t the NC despite being 13-0. OSU generated numbers against PSU, MI, and WI twice.
Clemson generated its numbers against no ranked teams. It’s true Clemson destroyed its opponents aside from UNC. But so did OSU along with beating ranked teams. But I have the ‘eye’ test and although not scientific it’s all I have because on paper they played apples and oranges to me. 

[Vinsk]

NCAA College Football Teams, Scores, Stats, News, Standings, Rumors - College Football - ESPN

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Get the latest NCAA college football news, scores, stats, standings, and more from ESPN.

I’m having issues pasting articles...sorry. This is supposed to be article on ‘Least to most entertaining Bowl Games.’

[iacas]

7 hours ago, Vinsk said:

NCAA College Football Teams, Scores, Stats, News, Standings, Rumors - College Football - ESPN

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Get the latest NCAA college football news, scores, stats, standings, and more from ESPN.

I’m having issues pasting articles...sorry. This is supposed to be article on ‘Least to most entertaining Bowl Games.’

 

 

Ranking college football's 40 bowl games, from least to most entertaining

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Here is your yearly installment of our bowl watchability rankings. Because while every game is entertaining, some are simply must-see TV.

There you go.

[Vinsk]

OU getting utterly humiliated by LSU. OSU better hope Clemson beats them to spare them the embarrassment.....

[dennyjones]

10 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

OU getting utterly humiliated by LSU

I don't believe this was unexpected.    

[Vinsk]

42 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

I don't believe this was unexpected.    

Vegas had LSU +7 I believe. Again..numbers sometimes just can’t understand the poetry of the eye test. LSU is a better team than any o them. Quite superior really. Clemson\OSU just Korn Ferry boys taking a spin on the big circuit.

[dennyjones]

The way LSU played tonight the Detroit Lions would be on the losing end of their game.   Then again, the Lions have only won 1 playoff game in my life time.

[Double Mocha Man]

14 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

The way LSU played tonight the Detroit Lions would be on the losing end of their game.   Then again, the Lions have only won 1 playoff game in my life time.

No love for the Lions?  Eh, they could have played their subs and beaten LSU.

[Vinsk]

Ryan Day at half, ‘ we had that catch in the end zone taken away.’ What an ass. Disgraceful. Replay CLEARLY showed receiver didn’t have control and the ball hit the ground. Shows his poor integrity. 
 

Aside from that OSU playing well, shame they chose to target Lawrence. The game is like a slow-mo version after watching LSU/OU but that’s expected with watching an ACC/B1G game after a BIG12/SEC. But a great game so far.