NCAA Football 2021

[Vinsk]

22 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I like the content these guys put out.

Their model has it... Alabama 33 versus Cincinnati 33. 

So, the reason why their model is 33 to 33. Alabama's run offense is average at best. Cincinnati has a very good pass defense. So, it is strength v strength. Alabama pass offense, versus Cincy pass defense. Cincy has a pretty decent passing attack, not elite. Alabama's pass defense is average at best this year. Passing travels better than running. 

Here is Michigan v Georgia... Michigan 25, Georgia 29. Yea, I kinda of thought this would be the scoring range. Two defensive teams. In my head, at that scoring range, who make its to 27 first wins? 

The only issue with Georgia is, they better bring that elite rush defense to town. If Michigan averages 4-5 yards per carry, their offense really starts to get going. 

I do hope both games are close.

The worst case would be both Georgia and Alabama crushing their opponents and then Alabama stomping Georgia again. 

I like these guys too. Metrics are one thing but they don’t account for the unmeasurable.  It’s like when Mike Tyson said every fighter has a plan until they get hit. Cincinnati will face a team of which they are essentially unfamiliar with. The speed, the power, the talent. Beating up on much inferior teams isn’t much preparation for them to play Alabama. Making good completions and covering the passing game when they went minimally challenged isn’t the same as doing it against an elite team. 
 

If I played basketball against a bunch of talented 10 year olds it wouldn’t be remarkable that I had exceptional rebounding stats. And trying to measure how I’d perform against players my own size would be a pure guess. Cincinnati has a dismal SOS. Three months ago they beat a good team. Since then they’ve played mediocre teams, and those teams were only mediocre because they too had dismal SOS’s. 
 

Alabama will humiliate Cincinnati.

[Double Mocha Man]

20 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Alabama will humiliate Cincinnati.

On paper, yes they should.  In real life, eh.

I love an underdog, pulling for Cincinnati.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Double Mocha Man

[Golfingdad]

Add Holiday Bowl to the list of canceled games.  Bummer too, I was looking forward to this one tonight.

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

On paper, yes they should.  In real life, eh.

I love an underdog, pulling for Cincinnati.

I think it’s the opposite. Silly numbers show it to be a great game. I just don’t agree. Oh I’d love to see Cincinnati put up a great game. It would justify their ranking towards the end when everyone but Cincy had to go to war to make the top four. And as has been questioned, who other than Cincy? I get that, yes. But it’s almost a certainty that Cincy wouldn’t be undefeated had they played any of the schedules Ala,OSU, OkSt, and OU. All this ‘they earned it’ I don’t completely agree with. They beat one ‘ranked’ team. 

[Golfingdad]

1 hour ago, Vinsk said:

I think it’s the opposite. Silly numbers show it to be a great game. I just don’t agree. Oh I’d love to see Cincinnati put up a great game. It would justify their ranking towards the end when everyone but Cincy had to go to war to make the top four. And as has been questioned, who other than Cincy? I get that, yes. But it’s almost a certainty that Cincy wouldn’t be undefeated had they played any of the schedules Ala,OSU, OkSt, and OU. All this ‘they earned it’ I don’t completely agree with. They beat one ‘ranked’ team. 

Looking at the schedules, it says they beat 2 ranked teams; ND and Houston.  That is the same number of ranked teams that Michigan beat. 

[Vinsk]

12 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

Looking at the schedules, it says they beat 2 ranked teams; ND and Houston.  That is the same number of ranked teams that Michigan beat. 

That’s why I put ranked in quotes. Houston? Come on…Michigan best OSU ffs. But look, nobody is gonna get anywhere discussing Cincinnati’s SOS. There’s simply no argument. It sucked.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Vinsk

[saevel25]

Ohio State QB throwing shade at the California college football fans...

Ohio State's C.J. Stroud: 'Boring' atmospheres at USC, UCLA have role in top California players leaving state

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...

Quote

“I think that does play a big part,” Stroud said. “You got to these USC and UCLA games, and to be quite honest, it’s kind of boring. There’s not a lot of people. The fans aren’t really in tune. They’re just kind of there on vacation and whatnot. You got to these other schools out of state, and their fans are kind of like fanatics. They don’t really care what people think about them. They’re wearing all type of stuff. They’re yelling at the top of their lungs. With that comes great responsibility because you do get criticized as well. It’s a slippery slope. It’s a two-way street. If you want a lot of fans to be supporting you, they’ll be hating on you as well. I definitely do think it plays a big part in leaving home because you just want that type of support.”

 

[Wanzo]

[saevel25]

Thoughts on Cincy loss to Alabama..

Cincy is the 2nd team other than Auburn to keep Alabama under 30 points in a game this season. Which, is impressive to me with how inept Cincy's offense was. When Alabama is on pace for 90+ plays after the 1st half, you think they should hang 50+ on a team. Especially with 300+ yards in the first half. 

Cincy was highly outmatched with their offense versus Alabama's defense. No way to take the top off, all passes were less than 15 yards down field. Alabama could just play downhill all night. 

Yea, Cincy defense, especially their passing defense. LEGIT! 

Cincy' offense, lack of playmakers. 

Hey, they performed better than some power 5 teams in playoff games. 

It's 27-3 Georgia v Michigan at the half!!! I might think Cincy is a better team than Michigan. 

Maybe schedule isn't everything, but it is something. 

[Double Mocha Man]

5 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

I might think Cincy is a better team than Michigan. 

Oh, you are just asking for trouble...  😁

Edited January 1 by Double Mocha Man

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Oh, you are just asking for trouble...  😁

I hate to do direct single game opponent comparisons, BUT!!!

Alabama beats Georgia 41-24
Alabama beats Cindy 27-6
Michigan losing to Georgia 27-3 at half...

Umm... Cincy gave Alabama more trouble on defense than Georgia. Mostly because they decided to allow a light box all night and cover the deep ball the entire game. They gave Bryce Young the Patrick Mahomes treatment. Nothing deep, you got to pass underneath all night. Which, Georgia, might want to run Cover-2 Man under all night at the NC game. Nothing deep, keep Alabama under 30. Just saying. 

If Cincy played Georgia, they lose about the same to Alabama... 27-30 to what 10 points? 

So, yea... I am thinking Cincy is better than Michigan. 😛 

 

[Double Mocha Man]

1 minute ago, saevel25 said:

So, yea... I am thinking Cincy is better than Michigan. 😛 

Not disagreeing.  Just don't tell my Michigan golfing buddy who is suffering deeply at this moment.  

[Vinsk]

Lol! @saevel25 that’s classic! Gotta love ya. Cincy loses a CFP game by 21pts and you wanna talk about how good they are. 😃

[saevel25]

2 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Lol! @saevel25 that’s classic! Gotta love ya. Cincy loses a CFP game by 21pts and you wanna talk about how good they are. 😃

So, If Alabama is 30 points better than an average football team. Cincy losing by 21 points, means they are 10 points better than an average team. Which puts them probably in the top 30 of all NCAA football teams. 

What is worse, losing by 12 strokes to Tiger Woods, or losing by 12 strokes to some unknown average PGA Tour player? Losing by 12 to Tiger Woods might give you no shame when Tiger is on his A+ game. 

[Vinsk]

16 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

So, If Alabama is 30 points better than an average football team. Cincy losing by 21 points, means they are 10 points better than an average team. Which puts them probably in the top 30 of all NCAA football teams. 

What is worse, losing by 12 strokes to Tiger Woods, or losing by 12 strokes to some unknown average PGA Tour player? Losing by 12 to Tiger Woods might give you no shame when Tiger is on his A+ game. 

Well That’s where the playoff just wasn’t gonna be a good game. An average PGA tour player shouldn’t be playing Tiger in the semifinals of the biggest match of the year. And according to the committee we had the #4 best player in the country play the #1 best player and he lost by 12 strokes.  
 

Everyone was hoping for a good game with all the hype Cincy got ( which I felt was overrated) and we didn’t get one. Cincy never had a chance. They generated metrics from far inferior opponents save one ( ND). I’m not sure if  a 12 team playoff would’ve produced a better game but I can’t help but believe several two loss teams would’ve played a better game than Cincy did.

[saevel25]

28 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

They generated metrics from far inferior opponents save one ( ND).

Metrics account for that. They account for the quality of teams they played. Cincy was fairly analyzed, fairly placed, and fairly allowed to play in the playoff. 

 

29 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I’m not sure if  a 12 team playoff would’ve produced a better game but I can’t help but believe several two loss teams would’ve played a better game than Cincy did.

It wouldn't. Not with how some of these teams are built. NCAA is not like the NFL were the talent gap is not huge. 

If there was a 12 team playoff this year...

Alabama (Bye), Michigan (Bye), Georgia (bye), Cincy (Bye)

ND v Pitt, OSU v Utah (umm....), Baylor v MSU, Miss. v OU State

Though, I am not sure Cincy is #4 in a 12 team playoff. They can validate them to a lower spot. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to ND who lost to Cincy. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to any of the 2-loss teams either. Yea, we would have better 1st round game because no one is facing Alabama or Georgia. Georgia obviously being the best team all year, and Alabama catching fire after losing. There is still a chance that the same 2 games happen in the 2nd round of a 12-team playoff. 

The disparity in talent in NCAA is too large. Even with NCAA Basketball. Heck, no team seeded outside the 11th seed has made it to the final four in NCAA basketball. You could cut that tournament down. 

There should be some major changes to NCAA football in general before we go to a 12-team playoff. 

1) Make a smaller super conference that only plays against itself. Like, have 4 conferences with 16 teams = 64 teams, or about half of current division 1 football. 

2) Get rid of divisions in conferences so that good teams just don't crush each other every year. 

3) Make it so the schedules are created by the entire 4 conferences, and each conference plays the same # of conference games. 

4) Conference should not be by region, break up the SEC. 

Something like this...

Top 64 teams, based on 5 years of FEI Rankings. I basically counted up the # of times a team was in the top 64 in FEI Rankings. Teams who tied with 3 times in the top 64, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings. Then, with the 64 teams, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings and did a snake draft to create the 4 conferences. The top 4 teams, over the past 5 fully played NCAA seasons, were in their own conference. 

Just have a 12 game regular season, with a 4 team playoff. So, that would be 14 games Total played. 

 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

Metrics account for that. They account for the quality of teams they played. Cincy was fairly analyzed, fairly placed, and fairly allowed to play in the playoff. 

 

It wouldn't. Not with how some of these teams are built. NCAA is not like the NFL were the talent gap is not huge. 

If there was a 12 team playoff this year...

Alabama (Bye), Michigan (Bye), Georgia (bye), Cincy (Bye)

ND v Pitt, OSU v Utah (umm....), Baylor v MSU, Miss. v OU State

Though, I am not sure Cincy is #4 in a 12 team playoff. They can validate them to a lower spot. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to ND who lost to Cincy. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to any of the 2-loss teams either. Yea, we would have better 1st round game because no one is facing Alabama or Georgia. Georgia obviously being the best team all year, and Alabama catching fire after losing. There is still a chance that the same 2 games happen in the 2nd round of a 12-team playoff. 

The disparity in talent in NCAA is too large. Even with NCAA Basketball. Heck, no team seeded outside the 11th seed has made it to the final four in NCAA basketball. You could cut that tournament down. 

There should be some major changes to NCAA football in general before we go to a 12-team playoff. 

1) Make a smaller super conference that only plays against itself. Like, have 4 conferences with 16 teams = 64 teams, or about half of current division 1 football. 

2) Get rid of divisions in conferences so that good teams just don't crush each other every year. 

3) Make it so the schedules are created by the entire 4 conferences, and each conference plays the same # of conference games. 

4) Conference should not be by region, break up the SEC. 

Something like this...

Top 64 teams, based on 5 years of FEI Rankings. I basically counted up the # of times a team was in the top 64 in FEI Rankings. Teams who tied with 3 times in the top 64, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings. Then, with the 64 teams, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings and did a snake draft to create the 4 conferences. The top 4 teams, over the past 5 fully played NCAA seasons, were in their own conference. 

Just have a 12 game regular season, with a 4 team playoff. So, that would be 14 games Total played. 

 

Really like all of that and have to agree 100%. My beef is how it played out towards the end. I watched several Cincinnati games and all of the OSU, OkSt, OU, Ala and Georgia. Cincinnati just didn’t match up with my eye test. And I know it’s probably all we can do with the current system, but I don’t like the ‘well based on how Cincy played against SMU this is how they’d do against Alabama’ concept. Didn’t really pan out that way. And so often the unmeasurable factors seem to prevail. 
 

Cincinnati was deserving only before they were dealt an easy SOS that put them there. There’s no way in hell they would’ve been undefeated with any of the other  top 7 team’s schedules. Ohio State didn’t make it because Cincy was a better team. They didn’t make it because they were put through a much more difficult path. And I simply refuse to believe that routing a shitty team is more difficult or valuable than squeaking a win against a power house team.

[dennyjones]

4 hours ago, saevel25 said:

Metrics account for that. They account for the quality of teams they played. Cincy was fairly analyzed, fairly placed, and fairly allowed to play in the playoff. 

 

It wouldn't. Not with how some of these teams are built. NCAA is not like the NFL were the talent gap is not huge. 

If there was a 12 team playoff this year...

Alabama (Bye), Michigan (Bye), Georgia (bye), Cincy (Bye)

ND v Pitt, OSU v Utah (umm....), Baylor v MSU, Miss. v OU State

Though, I am not sure Cincy is #4 in a 12 team playoff. They can validate them to a lower spot. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to ND who lost to Cincy. I am not sure you can give the #4 spot to any of the 2-loss teams either. Yea, we would have better 1st round game because no one is facing Alabama or Georgia. Georgia obviously being the best team all year, and Alabama catching fire after losing. There is still a chance that the same 2 games happen in the 2nd round of a 12-team playoff. 

The disparity in talent in NCAA is too large. Even with NCAA Basketball. Heck, no team seeded outside the 11th seed has made it to the final four in NCAA basketball. You could cut that tournament down. 

There should be some major changes to NCAA football in general before we go to a 12-team playoff. 

1) Make a smaller super conference that only plays against itself. Like, have 4 conferences with 16 teams = 64 teams, or about half of current division 1 football. 

2) Get rid of divisions in conferences so that good teams just don't crush each other every year. 

3) Make it so the schedules are created by the entire 4 conferences, and each conference plays the same # of conference games. 

4) Conference should not be by region, break up the SEC. 

Something like this...

Top 64 teams, based on 5 years of FEI Rankings. I basically counted up the # of times a team was in the top 64 in FEI Rankings. Teams who tied with 3 times in the top 64, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings. Then, with the 64 teams, I ranked them by average FEI Rankings and did a snake draft to create the 4 conferences. The top 4 teams, over the past 5 fully played NCAA seasons, were in their own conference. 

Just have a 12 game regular season, with a 4 team playoff. So, that would be 14 games Total played. 

 

This would never work.   The rivalries are all about the money.   It always is and always will be.   Alabama / Auburn, Michigan / Ohio will  play forever in our lifetime.   Tradition and money drives sports.   Ask your alums if they would give up the Michigan game.   I bet their first thought would be to ask what you've been smoking.