NCAA Football 2021

[bwdial]

Congratulations to Georgia.  As an Alabama grad, I'm disappointed, but they played a hell of a game defensively, and Stetson Bennett earned the nickname "Mailman"; he delivered.  He could have easily crumbled after the fumble, but he went out and shredded our defense.

Enjoy your year on top UGA, and we'll see y'all in Atlanta next December.

[saevel25]

It is really really hard to win a game when you are down 2-3 starters. Losing their top WR basically doomed Alabama. You can tell that the chemistry between Young and the other WR was not there.  That offense just struggled if they couldn't hit the deep ball. Their offense just struggled to score TD's. They basically ran into what OSU had trouble with. It is due to not being able to effectively run the ball. 

 

[saevel25]

Expected Point Added is like strokes gained in golf. It takes, at this position on the field, with this down and distance, what is the expected points scored on average. Like, if you are on the 1 yard line, about to score a TD, and you throw a pick six, that is like the worst play to happen from an expected points added perspective. You were expected to get probably 6+ points added (mostly TD, some FG, some turn over on downs), and you gave up 7 points. 

Obvious, more EPA Differential, like scoring differential, the more times you win than lose. 

So, the graph from Twitter....

Major Underperformers - Toledo & Nebraska
Major Overperformers -  Michigan State & Iowa

So, after Cincinnati got beat by Alabama, their win % actually lines up with their EPA Differential. It wasn't like they overperformed. 

 

 

 

[iacas]

[saevel25]

I can not deny the Ohio State Fanbase is just insanely passionate, but also insanely irrational. It makes them pretty insufferable. 😉

 

[saevel25]

Well, BIG shifts in the NCAA landscape.

UCLA and USC have applied to join the Big 10, and have been approved by the B10. 

Now, Oregon and Washington have applied to join the B10. Waiting on confirmation if they will be approved by the B10. 

Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska and Northwestern are the 14 current members. Taking USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington brings them up to 18. 

I am wondering now if this will just turn into a new power 5 conference where it has those willing to spend lots of money on football (primarily) and those that don't want to. 

 

[Friz]

  On 7/1/2022 at 1:07 AM, saevel25 said:

Well, BIG shifts in the NCAA landscape.

UCLA and USC have applied to join the Big 10, and have been approved by the B10. 

Now, Oregon and Washington have applied to join the B10. Waiting on confirmation if they will be approved by the B10. 

Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska and Northwestern are the 14 current members. Taking USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington brings them up to 18. 

I am wondering now if this will just turn into a new power 5 conference where it has those willing to spend lots of money on football (primarily) and those that don't want to. 

 

Expand  

This is just getting dumb...im not really sure what conferences will mean at this point.  Clearly there are no geographic ties, the Big Ten will stretch from New Jersey to Los Angeles.  There was already no way to have a balanced conference football schedule at 14 teams, can't play everyone, now it's even bigger.

I get why, it's all about money of course and the big ten just absorbed the Los Angeles TV market...but at this point we are just heading towards Big Ten vs. SEC.  

[dennyjones]

I hope we won't have to watch a 10pm game between UM / USC!    They didn't ask my opinion but I think the idea is crazy.   But, $$ drives almost every decision in sports.  

[saevel25]

I think they made this move to be preemptive towards how college football will be changing in the next 5 years. 

[Vinsk]

  On 7/1/2022 at 10:42 PM, saevel25 said:

I think they made this move to be preemptive towards how college football will be changing in the next 5 years. 

Expand  

Yeah. Pretty much going Pro in the format the way it’s looking. And with NIL developing more and more, it’s gonna damn near be a professional sport eventually.

[saevel25]

With NIL, the idea is that the teams willing to invest are banding together. This means like 3-4 teams from the pac-12. If that is the case, then do they join the big-10 or sec? I say the big-10 with their history.