NCAA Football 2023

[saevel25]

3 hours ago, saevel25 said:

I might take UM -4.5 just to give them some bad luck. Last week they failed to cover agains Purdue when I bet on them. 🤣

yep, took UM -4.5. 

Also took the over 44 points. 

Kind-of hoping for something like... 27 UM to 21 PSU. 

[StuM]

14 hours ago, saevel25 said:

yep, took UM -4.5. 

Also took the over 44 points. 

Kind-of hoping for something like... 27 UM to 21 PSU. 

I’m not good at gambling. Does UM -4.5 mean you expect UM to win by 4.5 points?

this is Michigan’s first true test but unless Penn St. plays really well I would expect UM to win by 8+.  

[klineka]

34 minutes ago, StuM said:

I’m not good at gambling. Does UM -4.5 mean you expect UM to win by 4.5 points?

this is Michigan’s first true test but unless Penn St. plays really well I would expect UM to win by 8+.  

Yes, in order for him to win the bet UM has to win by at least 5 points and the game total for both teams has to be over 44 (assuming he parlayed those together)

 

The one that surprises me a little right now is OSU +6 against Michigan. I think that the game will be pretty close, especially if it ends up being a lower scoring defensive/clock control style game. I could absolutely still see Michigan winning that style of game, but I'd be surprised if it was by more than 6. 

[saevel25]

1 hour ago, klineka said:

The one that surprises me a little right now is OSU +6 against Michigan. I think that the game will be pretty close, especially if it ends up being a lower scoring defensive/clock control style game. I could absolutely still see Michigan winning that style of game, but I'd be surprised if it was by more than 6. 

Not hard to end the game up one TD. If it gets up to OSU +7, I’ll probably bet that. 

 

[dennyjones]

REPORT: Former Big Ten Football Employee Says It Was His Job To Steal Signs, Including Play-Calling Signals Used By Michigan

[klineka]

56 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Not hard to end the game up one TD. If it gets up to OSU +7, I’ll probably bet that. 

If Michigan blows out Penn State and OSU continues to be mediocre (relatively speaking) on offense then I could see it jumping to +7. Or if the money starts backing Michigan heavily too that could shift it.

[StuM]

3 hours ago, klineka said:

The one that surprises me a little right now is OSU +6 against Michigan. I think that the game will be pretty close, especially if it ends up being a lower scoring defensive/clock control style game. I could absolutely still see Michigan winning that style of game, but I'd be surprised if it was by more than 6. 

Advanced Disclosure: I am a Buckeye fan

I am not convinced OSU can beat Michigan.  OSU has played some good teams and won but, regardless of the final scores, several games were a lot close4 than they may appear.  UM has clearly dominated but has not played the same level of opponents as OSU (that will change this weekend)

Watching OSU this year I often felt they were playing poorly and they will need to step up their game against Michigan.  Michigan has played well every quarter of every game, that matters!

[klineka]

14 minutes ago, StuM said:

Advanced Disclosure: I am a Buckeye fan

I am not convinced OSU can beat Michigan.  OSU has played some good teams and won but, regardless of the final scores, several games were a lot close4 than they may appear.  UM has clearly dominated but has not played the same level of opponents as OSU (that will change this weekend)

Watching OSU this year I often felt they were playing poorly and they will need to step up their game against Michigan.  Michigan has played well every quarter of every game, that matters!

I agree, McCord will have to play his best game of the season by far and OSU can't afford to take any quarters off in order for them to have a chance.

I think OSU is currently ranked #1 based on who they have beat this year, but I'm not necessarily convinced that they're the best team in the country.

Edited November 7, 2023 by klineka

[saevel25]

Some more fun with this. Apparently, Rutgers and OSU gave Purdue their information on UM's signals before last year's Purdue v UM game in the Big10 Championship. 

UM fans are up in arms going, "AH HA!!! They stole our signals". 

It isn't about sign stealing. It's about advance scouting.

There seems to be no rule against OSU and Rutgers giving Purdue this information. Which is hilarious that two teams would want to screw UM over. It's funnier because the HC at Rutgers was a former DC at OSU. Just like how stealing of signs in the appropriate way is very common, so is calling up your buddies at other institutions to try to get information on a team you are playing. 

[StuM]

6 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

It isn't about sign stealing. It's about advance scouting.

Every one seems to want to focus on the "Sign Stealing", but as you said, that is not the rule in question.  

That said, I still do not like the signs being shared with Purdue. 

[klineka]

10 minutes ago, StuM said:

Every one seems to want to focus on the "Sign Stealing", but as you said, that is not the rule in question.  

That said, I still do not like the signs being shared with Purdue. 

Same here. Just because it's not illegal doesn't make it right.

[vasaribm]

So Team A can spend their own resources and time to figure it out themselves, that's cheating. 

While, Team B calls his buddies who previously played Team A and get similar information for free, that's fair play.

Yeah, that makes sense...

[saevel25]

7 minutes ago, vasaribm said:

So Team A can spend their own resources and time to figure it out themselves, that's cheating. 

While, Team B calls his buddies who previously played Team A and get similar information for free, that's fair play.

Yeah, that makes sense...

Should there be a rule that teams can't share information, sure. This isn't about sign stealing. It's about how you sign steal. UM clearly illegally obtained signs.  

Rutgers and OSU, until proven otherwise, obtain the information legally. 

There isn't any report on who contact who. It is entirely possible Purdue never asked for the signals. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Purdue's enemy that day was UM. The enemy of the enemy was OSU and Rutgers. 

Now, could the NCAA and Big10 hit Rutgers and OSU with some sort of penalty for some sort of ambiguous ethic rule or sportsmanship rule, sure. 

 

 

 

[StuM]

7 minutes ago, vasaribm said:

So Team A can spend their own resources and time to figure it out themselves, that's cheating. 

While, Team B calls his buddies who previously played Team A and get similar information for free, that's fair play.

Yeah, that makes sense...

There is no rule against stealing signs. The rule that was broken was sending an in-person advance scout.  I'm not debating if the rules are good or bad, but simply that the rules are what they are.  And, as noted above, I do not like that the signs were shared with Purdue, but changing/implementing a rule about that is a different topic and has no relevance in the case at hand.

We've had many conversations on TST involving rules people do not like, and a common refrain is rules need to be followed even if someone feels it is bad rule. IE.: A divot is not GRU and thus there is no relief for a ball in a divot.  Other rules work to someone's advantage, so be it.

[saevel25]

Running some odds, here are projected CFB playoff teams. With the assumption no two loss team has ever made it to the CFB playoff. 

FSU, they have 64% chance of not dropping another game. 
Oregon, they have a 60% chance of not dropping another game. They will probably avenge their loss against Washington and take the Pac-12 title. 

The SEC is crazy. Alabama has a pretty easy stretch going into the SEC title game. Georgia schedule is back loaded and could lose one of the next two. Pending on how that turns out, you could have a 2-loss SEC champ. 

The Big10 is crazier! Not because of the drama. There is a 3-team race to the top. UM has the best chance of winning out, with a 39% chance. Odds are they will win out. If PSU beats UM, and UM beats OSU. We have the three 1-loss scenario. 

If this happens, then we have to fall all the way to tiebreaker #5! 

"The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents."

Currently, PSU is winning this race with a combined win loss record of 8-10 versus OSU and UM being at 7-11. 

[StuM]

4 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Running some odds, here are projected CFB playoff teams. With the assumption no two loss team has ever made it to the CFB playoff. 

FSU, they have 64% chance of not dropping another game. 
Oregon, they have a 60% chance of not dropping another game. They will probably avenge their loss against Washington and take the Pac-12 title. 

The SEC is crazy. Alabama has a pretty easy stretch going into the SEC title game. Georgia schedule is back loaded and could lose one of the next two. Pending on how that turns out, you could have a 2-loss SEC champ. 

The Big10 is crazier! Not because of the drama. There is a 3-team race to the top. UM has the best chance of winning out, with a 39% chance. Odds are they will win out. If PSU beats UM, and UM beats OSU. We have the three 1-loss scenario. 

If this happens, then we have to fall all the way to tiebreaker #5! 

"The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents."

Currently, PSU is winning this race with a combined win loss record of 8-10 versus OSU and UM being at 7-11. 

November is a great month for college football!

[saevel25]

For people who say it is not that much of an advantage. This could be coincidental. BUT... 

247Sports Recruiting Rankings since 2016 thru 2020 - 8th, 4th, 22nd, 8th, 10th. (Average 10th)

Rankings from 2021 thru 2023 - 13th, 9th, 17th. (Average 13th). 

UM suddenly got a nearly 12-point differential improvement. It could be possible the advanced scouting didn't have an impact. 

[ChetlovesMer]

43 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

For people who say it is not that much of an advantage.

I think only morons and UM homers say that. 

I mean I'd sure like to when and from which side the blitz is coming from.