Phil Mickelson Tending the Flag

[BrushCaddy]

Originally Posted by canadianpro

I watched it but forget...Had Bubba sunk his putt for birdie yet when Phil laid up?

No, he hadn't so if Bubba missed his put, Phil would have had an easy put to tie it.  Holing it out could have been the "backup plan" if Bubba made his put.  Like someone mentioned above, if Phil thought it was his best option, it probably was...

[TheGeekGolfer]

Originally Posted by canadianpro

I watched it but forget...Had Bubba sunk his putt for birdie yet when Phil laid up?

No (edit, answered it from the wrong perspective)...he had already laid up before Bubba made his birdie putt.  Bubba said he didn't even know Phil had laid up or wasn't in the fairway when he made his birdie.

To weigh in on the whole lay-up vs go for green thing... (which is a bit ridiculous, but fun anyway)...(imo)... if Phil and his caddie thought the odds were better to lay up and try to hole out with a wedge, then that's all that matters.  Anyone else talking odds, what he should / shouldn't do, etc. is all hogwash.  He figured he had a better chance of missing the green and being in some cr#ppy lie than hitting the green on his 2nd shot.  So, he instead liked his odds being in the fairway, 70ish yards away with a perfect lie.  The pin was accessible for a fairway shot, he knew that.  Plus, being Phil, don't you all think he liked the scene and the 'buzz' from having Bones tend the flag, etc.  He LOVES that stuff.

And don't forget, he holed out twice at the Masters last year, he also stuffed his wedge shot on the previous hole, Rocco holed out 4 times in one tournament last season, Steve Lowery holed out twice (once on a par-4 and then on a par-5) in the International in 2003, etc.

While 'odds' can define a series of events, those same 'odds' don't readily apply to one particular event.

[zeg]

Originally Posted by max power

As well as Phil knows his own game it doesn't affect the objective probabilities.  I agree that Phil believed he had a better chance at eagle with layup and a 72 yd lob wedge, but he was wrong. Credit to his skills that he hit it as close as he did.

He was wrong?  I don't see how you can say that; all we know is he didn't make the eagle.  That tells us nothing about the probabilities.  I'm still going to take Phil's assessment over the Internet's.  That it didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong play.

In addition, you have to consider the risks.  The layup+pitch takes the water out of play, which means in the event that Bubba doesn't birdie, Phil is all but guaranteed a tie.  Risking 2 or 3 strokes with a slim chance to save 1 is not often a good bargain, especially when the score you're trying to beat is not yet posted.  Had Phil gone swimming trying for the hero shot and Bubba wound up with a par, I guarantee there'd be even more second-guessing of the strategy.

[max power]

Maybe I came across too strong-I'm not actually criticizing the decision Phil made at the time he made it.  He looks at the lie, he has to make the shot, his decision.  I'm saying that if Phil had been able to step back from the shot and look at his chances with complete objectivity he may have decided it was better to go for it.  I don't know the exact numbers, but I reckon even Phil isn't actually going to hole many shots from 72 yards.  How many times out of 100 would he actually hole it out?  On the other hand Phil is the absolute best in the PGA at hitting the green from 200-250 yards.

I'm probably having trouble taking hindsight out of the equation here, have to remind myself that Bubba hadn't made the putt yet.  I guess Phil was playing hoping/thinking Bubba would miss.

Originally Posted by zeg

Quote:

Originally Posted by max power

As well as Phil knows his own game it doesn't affect the objective probabilities.  I agree that Phil believed he had a better chance at eagle with layup and a 72 yd lob wedge, but he was wrong. Credit to his skills that he hit it as close as he did.

He was wrong?  I don't see how you can say that; all we know is he didn't make the eagle.  That tells us nothing about the probabilities.  I'm still going to take Phil's assessment over the Internet's.  That it didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong play.

In addition, you have to consider the risks.  The layup+pitch takes the water out of play, which means in the event that Bubba doesn't birdie, Phil is all but guaranteed a tie.  Risking 2 or 3 strokes with a slim chance to save 1 is not often a good bargain, especially when the score you're trying to beat is not yet posted.  Had Phil gone swimming trying for the hero shot and Bubba wound up with a par, I guarantee there'd be even more second-guessing of the strategy.

[bunkerputt]

Originally Posted by clubchamp

Faldo made a great point about Phil he said when Phil is just letting loose on every swing he seems to hit it better off tee then when he tries to control it. I was kind of disappointed when he hit the lay up on 18 but if Phil is laying up there must have been no way he could have hit a decent shot to the green. I agree having bones tend the flag was great and the fact he came close to making it was awesome.

I was disappointed too..  Mostly because I wanted to see him try to hit a 200 yard punch shot under those branches, past the water, and into the upslope of the bank so it shoots up high and lands softly 3 feet from the hole.  A little short, it's wet.  A little long, it runs through.  Probably easier to hole it from 72 yards and a lot less risk.  It was good to see him take clean second place, though.

[Zeph]

No, Bubba had not hit his putt. Edit: Ah, new page, splendid.

[sacm3bill]

Here's what the caddy had to say (from http://blogs.golf.com/presstent/2011/01/truth-rumors-bones-says-phils-layup-was-no-brainer.html ):

Originally Posted by golf.com

Now no one on tour is more aggressive than Mickelson — “he was itching to go for it,” said Mackay — but everything in the lie said no. The situation called for a “pronounced cut and there was a lot of grass so it would have been really hard to curve the ball,” Mackay said.

Mackay finds it comical to think people will debate the decision to lay up for days, especially since the decision process between caddie and player “lasted less than 10 seconds,” he said. “It was a no-brainer.”

[mcfc_nick]

Originally Posted by zeg

Quote:

Originally Posted by max power

As well as Phil knows his own game it doesn't affect the objective probabilities.  I agree that Phil believed he had a better chance at eagle with layup and a 72 yd lob wedge, but he was wrong. Credit to his skills that he hit it as close as he did.

He was wrong?  I don't see how you can say that; all we know is he didn't make the eagle.  That tells us nothing about the probabilities.  I'm still going to take Phil's assessment over the Internet's.  That it didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong play.

In addition, you have to consider the risks.  The layup+pitch takes the water out of play, which means in the event that Bubba doesn't birdie, Phil is all but guaranteed a tie.  Risking 2 or 3 strokes with a slim chance to save 1 is not often a good bargain, especially when the score you're trying to beat is not yet posted.  Had Phil gone swimming trying for the hero shot and Bubba wound up with a par, I guarantee there'd be even more second-guessing of the strategy.

in what way was he 'all but guaranteed a tie' if Bubba misses? golfers dont always get up and down from 70 yards

[Radford Wooly]

Mickelson is an awesome short game player, we all know this. I'm not questioning his decision at all. I recently got his short game dvd, well worth the money. Not much he can't do with an iron in his hand!!

[max power]

Besides win an Open.  Zing!

Originally Posted by Radford Wooly

Mickelson is an awesome short game player, we all know this. I'm not questioning his decision at all. I recently got his short game dvd, well worth the money. Not much he can't do with an iron in his hand!!

[ebanahan]

canadianpro: yeah Buddy had sunk the putt. I was there on the 18th green. Super atmosphere. Cant wait for Scottsdale now.

[Ignorant]

Originally Posted by sean_miller

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignorant

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quinn07

Quote:

Originally Posted by sean_miller

Read Mickelson's interview on pgatour.com (or tsn.ca - it's easy to find). Phil's not one to play for positioning (second shmecond), so if he thought the layup/wedge was the best chance at eagle, then it was.

Surprisingly I agree with Sean .  Knowing the way Phil is, if he thought he had a slightly better chance at making eagle going for it, he certainly would have.

With due respect, guys, do you actually believe in what you are writing??? That someone ACTUALLY believes that he has a better chance to sink a 72 yds wedge than a potential 30-footer putt or a 50-footer chip?

Are you suggesting he lied in his interview or that you know Phil's game better than Phil does?

What I read between the lines is that he was so unsecure with his 2nd shot to the green that he did not even think that as an option. I mean, nobody (and I mean NOBODY) actually believes having a good chance to sink his ball from 72 yds. Apparently it was his best choice for the time being but not a realistic one to sink. I believe he was securing his birdie way much more than really aiming for an eagle.

[zeg]

Originally Posted by mcfc_nick

in what way was he 'all but guaranteed a tie' if Bubba misses? golfers dont always get up and down from 70 yards

I'll wager that from a fairway lie and 70 yards Phil expects to get up and down well more often than not.  But come on, it doesn't do any good to get hung up on a little phrase.  The point is that blindly going balls-out the way you might play a golf video game isn't actually a very good strategy, even when it's down to the last hole.  Phil needed a huge turn of luck from the situation he was in to make eagle.  If it's going to take a miracle either way, you might as well opt for the play that doesn't turn a birdie into a bogey if the eagle doesn't work out.

Plus, Phil has holed out his share of 70+ yard pitches; while those are rare, they're not even the kind of shot that makes news unless it's noteworthy for some other reason.  I don't know that a hole out from the fairway is even that much less likely than a chip from a probably poor lie.  We're talking about very unlikely scenarios all around: there just wasn't any way to turn that second shot into a probable eagle.

[q7w]

not to sound like a downer, but Phil needs to stop messing up when it counts

I really wanted him to win

but again he made some unnecessary mistakes on the last few holes

don't get me wrong, he is a great player

he just needs to finish what he starts

I always get excited watching him when he has a chance to win, then it always seems he makes mistakes and loses the tournament

[dbuck]

Originally Posted by q7w

not to sound like a downer, but Phil needs to stop messing up when it counts

I really wanted him to win

but again he made some unnecessary mistakes on the last few holes

don't get me wrong, he is a great player

he just needs to finish what he starts

I always get excited watching him when he has a chance to win, then it always seems he makes mistakes and loses the tournament

I don't think he really made any "mistakes" on the last few holes.  He got a bad break on 17 I thought--may have pulled the wrong club--but really 2 feet more and it was a perfect shot that might have been birdie and tie.  That and the putt on 13 that did the horseshoe would have put him at -17. I would have liked to have seen him wait on 18 to see if Bubba made or not before making his decision--but according to him and Bones the decision would have been the same.  I don't think anyone thinks he was "protecting second"--I really think Phil could care less about second!

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by Ignorant

What I read between the lines is that he was so unsecure with his 2nd shot to the green that he did not even think that as an option. I mean, nobody (and I mean NOBODY) actually believes having a good chance to sink his ball from 72 yds. Apparently it was his best choice for the time being but not a realistic one to sink. I believe he was securing his birdie way much more than really aiming for an eagle.

Don't strain your eyes reading between any lines. He said he didn't have the required shot in his bag. So to say he was "unsecure" about it is an understatement.

How do you feel about his play from the pine straw at the Masters last year? Just curious.

[Fourputt]

Originally Posted by Ignorant

What I read between the lines is that he was so unsecure with his 2nd shot to the green that he did not even think that as an option. I mean, nobody (and I mean NOBODY) actually believes having a good chance to sink his ball from 72 yds. Apparently it was his best choice for the time being but not a realistic one to sink. I believe he was securing his birdie way much more than really aiming for an eagle.

I don't see where you get this.  He saw only 2 possibilities with the lie he had after his drive - either he doinks it into the pond, or it ends up way over the green with long a chip out of the rough from a downhill lie to a downhill green.  Since Bubba still had a long putt for birdie, Phil's choice was the only one that made any sense at all.  70 yards from the fairway with a backstop slope beyond the hole was clearly a better chance than a nearly impossible chip.  Of course he was playing for the birdie as the most likely result.  At the time it appeared that might be the score to get the tie.  This is one time when Phil really did make the right decision.... it just didn't work out.

[BrushCaddy]

Maybe Phil didn't wait for the putt only to show Bubba he was coming and add to the pressure...  I agree with Ignorant above in that "I believe he was securing his birdie way much more than really aiming for an eagle."