Will Tiger Break Jack's Major Record?? (2012 Edition)

[NuclearMike]

I voted yes.  I'm sure he doubted himself when he switched from Butch Harmon to Hank Haney, but he ended up winning majors with the Haney swing.  Now that he seems to have put the Sean Foley swing into muscle memory rather than to have to "think" his way through every shot his physical game will once again become second nature to him and his mental game should keep him ahead of those who have grown up watching him play and haven't yet seen the Tiger of old up close.

[uttexas]

He has the physical and mental gifts to go >18 (especially considering that he can play the Masters for as long as he's willing and able--so it's a question of longevity) I voted for a tie (I have a friendly wager on <20 and 19 would make me feel uncomfortable.) He has more amateur US open wins than Jack, so in my mind, with 18 pro major wins, he would be the undisputed GOAT.

[brocks]

You guys are all crazy.  Tiger is not the Tiger of old.  He's always relied on the long ball and his ability to hit amazing recovery shots.  The problem is that as he ages, that power isn't there anymore.  He's never been more than an average putter (although he has been a clutch putter).  He's still a very good player, but there's more depth on the tour now than there was in his prime.  Half of the guys out there right now grew up watching Tiger and they aren't intimidated by him.  The poster above mentions that his competition only wins 2-3 times a year at the most (which isn't entirely accurate) but guess what?  Tiger only wins 2-3 times a year at the very very most anymore.  Tiger has become a good tour player, but he's no longer the man on tour, there are 25 guys that are just as good or better than Tiger right now.

If there are 25 guys >= Tiger, then why is he ranked #4, even without playing the minimum number of events (which results in a lower OWGR average), and even with three quarters of his ranking window comprising the worst play of his career? You're right that he's not yet the Tiger of old, but he doesn't have to be. He doesn't need to win a major by 15 shots, he just has to win by one. And he doesn't need to regain his best form; he just has to get back to half as good as his AVERAGE form. Before 2010, he averaged about 5 wins a year, and one major a year. That average includes a couple of stretches of about two years each where he didn't win a major, and a couple of years where he only won one event, and a couple of years where injuries kept him from playing a full schedule. So if he only gets back to half as good as his old average, he'll be winning five events every two years, and one major every two years. And if he does that, then by the time he's 46, he'll have 19 majors, and nearly 100 wins. And all indications are that he is already that good. In only nine PGA starts this year, he has two strong wins, and another event where he finished a close second with a final round 62. That indicates that he's already better than half as good as his old average, and he seems to still be improving. Of course there's no guarantee he can do it, and a lot depends on his health, but arguments based on how hard it is are irrelevant, because he's Tiger effin Woods. Hogan won six majors when he was older than Tiger, and could only play two majors a year on his shattered legs. And Tiger was much, much better before his accident than Hogan was before his accident, and his legs are in much better shape, and he has four majors a year. Barring illness or further injury, he'll do it.

[bwdial]

Originally Posted by Wallstreet

They aren't intimidated because they haven't played a healthy (mentally and physically) Tiger.  There are a lot more talented players on tour these days.  But none of them come even close to the level of play Tiger displayed between 05-08.  If and when Tiger starts playing like he knows how to play you will see the Mcilroy's and Johnson's and Donald's of the world be just as intimidated as everyone was in the past.  These past few years have been a slump.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Tiger is on his way to being back.  His strength hasn't changed.  He is still hitting the ball far.  He still knows how to play golf better than anyone.  Until you show me someone else who is dominant (because no one on tour is right now)  you can't really say that there are "25" players possibly better than Tiger.  That is a stretch

No, what Albert Pujols went through at the beginning of the year is a slump.  Rory McIlroy went through a slump over the past month or so.

What Tiger went through was a major knee injury, the subsequent surgeries and an Achilles tendon injury, all on his left leg.  Those are two potentially devastating injuries that could happen on any swing.  He's looked good in those two wins this year, but then he wasn't really pushed.  At the Memorial Sabbatini stood still, Levin went in reverse and Romero was always trailing.  At Bay Hill McDowell, Poulter and Els folded like BearStearns.  This isn't the Tiger of old that can reel off low round after low round, week after week.  When he's on, he's damn good, but when he's not, he's prone to look worse than average.  I just think that going forward, those injuries to his left leg are going to prevent him from getting anywhere close to the Tiger of old.

[mirv]

i went with "no."  i don't doubt he has more tour victories (he will very likely pass snead's 82 victories mark), and those victories might include 1-2 more majors, but i feel like jack's record will stand.

[onthehunt526]

This is my take on the situation...

even Jack had dry spells in his career and Tiger and Jack have a lot of parallels

Jack 1962-1966 7 majors

Tiger 1997-2001 6 majors

Jack 1967-1971 3 majors

Tiger 2002-2006 6 majors

Jack 1972-1976 4 majors

Tiger 2007-2011 2 majors

So basically at this point Jack and Tiger are Tied Thru the first 15 years of their careers. If Tiger wins this week, he pulls ahead of Jack by 2 years and 1 month (Jack's 15th Major was the 1978 Open Championship)...

But remember this... for the most part Tiger wins majors in bunches as demonstrated in my analogy

[jshots]

Tiger will do it. I want him to, and I think he will. People look at the last few years as proof that he is done, when I think it is proof of the opposite.

Sure in 2010 an 2011 he didn't play that well. He went through a huge life crisis which puts a tremendous amount of stress on a person, and if you've played golf you know what stress can do to your game. On top of that 2010 he started with Sean Foley and his swing changes, it's to be expected that it's going to to take a while to start perfecting something as delicate and precise as a professional golfers swing.

Did I mention all the injuries?

Oh don't forget that during all that shit, he still had 3 top 5s in majors (of the 6 he played in) as well as a few other good finishes. He even finished 2011 with a win against a tough field even if it wasn't a tour event.

After all of that, he is 4th in the world, and has 2 wins so far in 2012. He has 2 wins... do people not realize that he has 2 wins this year already?

I really think Tiger is the best golfer of all time. I am only 22, and when I get old I want to be able to tell my children/grandchildren what it was like to watch the best golfer of all time, Tiger Woods, play. I don't want to have to tell them some other guy was the best but I never got to see him play because I was too young.

[eich41]

Originally Posted by jshots

Tiger will do it. I want him to, and I think he will. People look at the last few years as proof that he is done, when I think it is proof of the opposite.

Sure in 2010 an 2011 he didn't play that well. He went through a huge life crisis which puts a tremendous amount of stress on a person, and if you've played golf you know what stress can do to your game. On top of that 2010 he started with Sean Foley and his swing changes, it's to be expected that it's going to to take a while to start perfecting something as delicate and precise as a professional golfers swing.

Did I mention all the injuries?

Oh don't forget that during all that shit, he still had 3 top 5s in majors (of the 6 he played in) as well as a few other good finishes. He even finished 2011 with a win against a tough field even if it wasn't a tour event.

After all of that, he is 4th in the world, and has 2 wins so far in 2012. He has 2 wins... do people not realize that he has 2 wins this year already?

I really think Tiger is the best golfer of all time. I am only 22, and when I get old I want to be able to tell my children/grandchildren what it was like to watch the best golfer of all time, Tiger Woods, play. I don't want to have to tell them some other guy was the best but I never got to see him play because I was too young.

The two posters who are the most adamant that he will do it, both have Tiger Woods in their avatar.  I think there are a lot of people who WANT Tiger to be back, and try to extrapolate every positive thing he does as a sign he's back.  Look at the Master's.  Everyone was certain that he was going to run away with it because he won the Arnold Palmer Inv. and he wasn't even in the hunt on the weekend.  While I may be wrong in my take that he won't beat Jack's record, those of you that are waiting for him to become the dominate force he was in past years shouldn't get your hopes up.  That Tiger will never be seen again.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by eich41

The two posters who are the most adamant that he will do it, both have Tiger Woods in their avatar.

Definitive proof that their posts have no merit!  That's just science.

[newtogolf]

i voted yes, though admittedly I'm biased in that I'd like to see him do it.  He can do it but he's going to need some help.  At this point no one else has stepped up to guard Jack's record.  Rory was looking like he had potential but he went cold so we'll see how this week goes before we say he's back in contention for every Major.  Phil is, well Phil, I love the guy but he's a wild card when it comes to Majors so I'm not sure he's going to stop Tiger too many times in the future.  Luke Donald doesn't seem to scare anyone during Majors, and Fowler, Bradley, Bubba, and others haven't shown enough consistency.

Collectively there's a lot of talent between the PGA and Euro Tours but no single player is going to be there week in and week out to stop Tiger which in my opinion means the record is there for Tiger to take.

[eich41]

Originally Posted by bplewis24

Definitive proof that their posts have no merit!  That's just science.

LOL.  Just pointing out that typically, when you're discussing your favorite player/team, you tend to be more optimistic because you WANT it to be true.  It's harder to be objective when it's your favorite player/team.  That's why they say you never bet on your team in Vegas.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by eich41

LOL.  Just pointing out that typically, when you're discussing your favorite player/team, you tend to be more optimistic because you WANT it to be true.  It's harder to be objective when it's your favorite player/team.  That's why they say you never bet on your team in Vegas.

It's a fair point, I admit.  But I think there are also enough people that aren't inlove with Tiger that share the same view.

IMO, he's still the most talented golfer on the Tour, and as long as physical issues (injuries, surgeries) don't hold him back, he will do it.  I think if he wins 1 more major within the next 2 years, he will win at least 5 before his career is over.

[jshots]

Originally Posted by eich41

The two posters who are the most adamant that he will do it, both have Tiger Woods in their avatar.  I think there are a lot of people who WANT Tiger to be back, and try to extrapolate every positive thing he does as a sign he's back.  Look at the Master's.  Everyone was certain that he was going to run away with it because he won the Arnold Palmer Inv. and he wasn't even in the hunt on the weekend.  While I may be wrong in my take that he won't beat Jack's record, those of you that are waiting for him to become the dominate force he was in past years shouldn't get your hopes up.  That Tiger will never be seen again.

Yes that is why I included that I WANT Tiger to do it. I have no doubt that I am a bit biased, and I gave my reason why. Even though I am probably biased, there are tons of people who think he is done... when he played better than the majority of golfers when he was playing some of the shittiest golf he has ever played, which I've just never really understood. You can't just completely ignore my reasons just because you think I'm biased, I still have a brain.

He is better than Jack, I have no doubt. My expectations aren't so high that I would expect him to be as dominate as he has been, but he has 2 wins already this year... one does not simply get 2 wins on the PGA Tour.

[turtleback]

Originally Posted by bwdial

Unless Tiger has a time machine, I don't see him getting back to the 2005-2008 level... let alone the 1999-2001 level.  For one, I don't think he trusts his body, and that's not something that's going to get any better as he ages.  Age is also going to start to affect how much he can practice and play, which leads me to my second point.

Secondly, I don't think he fully trusts his new swing.  When it's on, it's on, but when it's not, it's really not.  If he loses significant practice time due to Achilles flare ups, etc. he's going to have a harder time achieving that level of trust.  If his practice schedule is limited by his physical well being, and he's not comfortable with his full swing, his short game will start to suffer.  He's not twenty-something... he's thirty-something... and he's looking at forty.  Regardless of how good of physical shape he's in, the body simply doesn't have the same abilities at 36 that it did at 26.

I guess we'll see.  I'm guessing that you aren't old enough to remember all the stories about Jack being washed up.  In the 60s, before he came back and beat Doug Sanders at St. Andrews.  And then in the 70s, a couple of times  And then leading up to 1980, when he won the US Open and the PGA.  And in the early to mid 80s before he won the '86 Masters.  And he didn't even have the reason of rebuilding his swing.

As someone once said, form is temporary, talent is forever.

[turtleback]

Originally Posted by newtogolf

i voted yes, though admittedly I'm biased in that I'd like to see him do it.  He can do it but he's going to need some help.  At this point no one else has stepped up to guard Jack's record.  Rory was looking like he had potential but he went cold so we'll see how this week goes before we say he's back in contention for every Major.  Phil is, well Phil, I love the guy but he's a wild card when it comes to Majors so I'm not sure he's going to stop Tiger too many times in the future.  Luke Donald doesn't seem to scare anyone during Majors, and Fowler, Bradley, Bubba, and others haven't shown enough consistency.

Collectively there's a lot of talent between the PGA and Euro Tours but no single player is going to be there week in and week out to stop Tiger which in my opinion means the record is there for Tiger to take.

Which is only fair because there never was one single player who was there week in and week out to stop Jack when HE was playing.

[ApocG10]

Without a doubt, Tiger will break Jacks record.

[bwdial]

Originally Posted by turtleback

I guess we'll see.  I'm guessing that you aren't old enough to remember all the stories about Jack being washed up.  In the 60s, before he came back and beat Doug Sanders at St. Andrews.  And then in the 70s, a couple of times  And then leading up to 1980, when he won the US Open and the PGA.  And in the early to mid 80s before he won the '86 Masters.  And he didn't even have the reason of rebuilding his swing.

As someone once said, form is temporary, talent is forever.

Please, do me a favor and point out where I said Tiger was "washed up".  All I did was point out his injury history, that he's getting older, and that as he ages, his body will have a hard time recovering.  Look at how long it's taken him to get back to this point since 2008.

How many ACLs and Achilles tendons did Jack rupture?

[bplewis24]

18, I believe.  Tiger is going for that record too.