On Tour - how much is skill, how much is luck?

[Valleygolfer]

Originally Posted by Andrew Gibson

I don't know about show biz, but I have been lucky this summer. I am going to have a story about me and my woodworking in the Tampa bay times here in a week or so. and I have made a few more sales this year. Some of this stuff feels like luck to me, but I know if I had not spent the last 3 years getting out and joining ww clubs in the area, and taking part in the ukulele club locally I would not have gotten the spot in the paper.

I think golf is the same... every once in a while I will get a bounce that is lucky, but I am just as likely to get a bad bounce, and usually the lucky one is to even things out after 3 or 4 bad ones.

However when I am hitting the ball well and hitting irons on good lines and such, I am more likely to get a good bounce, catch a ridge and have my ball funneled to the hole, or have my tee shot catch a mound or ridge or down slope and give me a better angle or shorter shot to the green... golf is all relative. the better you hit it, the better you will score. I think of it this way, some days I will be a little off and every shot will hit the edge of the green and bounce out and into a bunker or rough, if I hit it a little better the next it will bounce in and toward the middle of the green....

The pro's play a game I am not familiar with.. I try to hit tee shots to one side or the other, and sometimes I try to shape a shot when necessary, but most of the time I shoot at the center of the green, or to the safe side of the pin... the pro's can go for it because they have put the work in, and in most situations know where the ball is going...  this allows them to take a closer look at the course and know where those special bounces and stuff are, and hopefully take advantage... me I have to get lucky.

So are you practicing this song?

[MEfree]

A guy who might be able to beat Dufner or Johnson half the time on his home course without a lot of pressure, yes that is possible, but if he could beat him half the time in a 72 hole tournament on tour, you would have heard of him.  I agree with this:

Originally Posted by x129

But the guys 100-300 are pretty interchangeable and luck [at the right time] matters a lot in sustaining your career.  The payouts are really top heavy (A top 3 placing is worth more than making 10 cuts and finishing 40+). Having 4 good rounds in a row is part skill and part luck. Not getting injuried is part skill/part luck. Having 9 guys in front of you drop out so you can win the PGA tour is all luck.

What hasn`t been mentioned yet is being fortunate enough to have access to golf and decent instruction growing up.  It is possible that there are guys born in Africa, poorer parts of the US or areas without a local golf course that had the innate talent to be a pro golfer but have never played the game.  Sure, these guys couldn`t beat you or me if we were to tee it up tomorrow, but maybe one or two could have been elite players on tour had they been exposed to the game as kids.

[MEfree]

sorry for something of a double post...not sure what happened when I tried to edit my first one??

A guy who might be able to beat Dufner or Johnson half the time on his home course without a lot of pressure, yes that is possible, but if he could actually beat him half the time in a 72 hole tournament on tour,he will make it on tour eventually as long as he has the perseverance.

I do believe that there are certain guys that can be solid tour players, but do need everything to come together right to get through Q school (including handling the pressure).  Q School requires playing consistently good (not great by tour standards) in three 72+ hole tournaments (and a pre-qualifying stage for some newcomers) while you can be top 125 on tour playing well just half the time.  There are guys like Mac O`Grady who might have lead one stage of Q School or been close or in the lead at finals after 72 holes, but didn`t make it through for a long time.  Once he got through, he was a solid player on tour, but it took a long, long time with lots of perseverance involved.

I also feel that there may be guys who do better on harder courses that are struggling to be top 25 on the Web.com birdie fest tour who could be top 125 on the PGA Tour if given the chance to play a full schedule there.

Along the same lines, I agree with this:

Originally Posted by x129

But the guys 100-300 are pretty interchangeable and luck [at the right time] matters a lot in sustaining your career.  The payouts are really top heavy (A top 3 placing is worth more than making 10 cuts and finishing 40+). Having 4 good rounds in a row is part skill and part luck. Not getting injuried is part skill/part luck. Having 9 guys in front of you drop out so you can win the PGA tour is all luck.

Just think how different Bob May's career might have been had Tiger missed just one putt during the final round or playoff of the 2000 PGA?

What hasn`t been mentioned yet is being fortunate enough to have access to golf and decent instruction growing up.  It is possible that there are guys born in Africa, poorer parts of the US or areas without a local golf course that had the innate talent to be a pro golfer but have never played the game.  Sure, these guys couldn`t beat you or me if we were to tee it up tomorrow, but maybe one or two could have been elite players on tour had they been exposed to the game as kids.

[Parker0065]

Hogan said: The more I practice the luckier I get!!!!!

In my opinion there is no luck involved in getting and staying on the PGA Tour, only hard work, skill, and desire with a little bit of pre-destiny mixed in. Some players have had easier paths to getting there than others but you don't get there on one single lucky break.

What some people may call luck I would call an oppertunity. Everyone in life gets oppertunities in one way or another and how you perform when given that chance will greatly determine your destiny. That holds true in Sports, Business, Love, and Life in general. Some people choke their brains out(usually out of fear) and others rise to the top when oppertunity comes their way.

I think what Hogan was syaing was "I make my own luck"!

[reedf]

Luck is when opportunity and preparation collide!

[TN94z]

Originally Posted by Parker0065

Hogan said: The more I practice the luckier I get!!!!!

In my opinion there is no luck involved in getting and staying on the PGA Tour, only hard work, skill, and desire with a little bit of pre-destiny mixed in. Some players have had easier paths to getting there than others but you don't get there on one single lucky break.

What some people may call luck I would call an oppertunity. Everyone in life gets oppertunities in one way or another and how you perform when given that chance will greatly determine your destiny. That holds true in Sports, Business, Love, and Life in general. Some people choke their brains out(usually out of fear) and others rise to the top when oppertunity comes their way.

I think what Hogan was syaing was "I make my own luck"!

I couldn't have said this better myself!

To the OP...I see what you are saying and used to think along those same lines.  But as I have gotten older and made some choices here and there, I believe seizing opportunities is key.  I see some people (including myself in hindsight) that just don't realize the opportunity is there.  Then when they see someone else get successful or "seize the opportunity", they tend to attribute it to "luck."  I think that some people are not open to opportunities which leads them to miss the chance when it's there.  I have actually encouraged some co-workers to make job choices that they didn't even see in front of them and had they not made the choice, they would have lost their job or been stuck in a less desirable position. Many times it is easier looking in from the outside and see what is going on and what is being missed.

The only "unlucky" thing I can really see as far as golf goes, for instance, is wealth.  The wealthier a golfer is, the more opportunity he can make for himself to show off his skill.   Now whether you consider your family being wealthy as a luck thing is personal.   I don't think it is, but I know that many do.

So my personal take on the whole thing is partially from Parker0065's quote....the more skill you have, the better your chances of making and seizing opportunities.   Because I personally believe, as Hogan stated....you make your own luck.

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by MEfree

What hasn`t been mentioned yet is being fortunate enough to have access to golf and decent instruction growing up.  It is possible that there are guys born in Africa, poorer parts of the US or areas without a local golf course that had the innate talent to be a pro golfer but have never played the game.  Sure, these guys couldn`t beat you or me if we were to tee it up tomorrow, but maybe one or two could have been elite players on tour had they been exposed to the game as kids.

This is true, but I don't believe that this is what the OP is referring to.  He - I think - is talking about golfers who already have the skills not being able to make it.  There are definitely people in the world who are better actors then George Clooney, and people who are better singers than Adele, and a lot of them will never make any money or be famous at all because of the breaks they need to get discovered.  On the other hand, if there are golfers out there who are better than Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy, we would know.  They don't need to be discovered, or turn in a demo tape to Tim Finchem.

That said, there might be some merit in what Cracker mentioned about being strapped for cash and needing a "backer" to get you going or keep you going.  That would sort of fall into the category of being "discovered."

So, I guess in some cases, maybe you do need some luck.

[MEfree]

Originally Posted by TN94z

The only "unlucky" thing I can really see as far as golf goes, for instance, is wealth.  The wealthier a golfer is, the more opportunity he can make for himself to show off his skill.   Now whether you consider your family being wealthy as a luck thing is personal.   I don't think it is, but I know that many do.

So my personal take on the whole thing is partially from Parker0065's quote....the more skill you have, the better your chances of making and seizing opportunities.   Because I personally believe, as Hogan stated....you make your own luck.

So what are you saying, every poor kid wasn`t unlucky, he just had no skill at picking parents?

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

This is true, but I don't believe that this is what the OP is referring to.  He - I think - is talking about golfers who already have the skills not being able to make it.  There are definitely people in the world who are better actors then George Clooney, and people who are better singers than Adele, and a lot of them will never make any money or be famous at all because of the breaks they need to get discovered.  On the other hand, if there are golfers out there who are better than Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy, we would know.  They don't need to be discovered, or turn in a demo tape to Tim Finchem.

That said, there might be some merit in what Cracker mentioned about being strapped for cash and needing a "backer" to get you going or keep you going.  That would sort of fall into the category of being "discovered."

So, I guess in some cases, maybe you do need some luck.

I agree that I wasn`t responding to exactly what the OP was referring to...just figured I would broaden the conversation a bit as I AM ONE OF THOSE THAT BELIEVE THAT I WAS VERY LUCKY TO BE BORN IN THE USA AND RAISED BY AN UPPER-MIDDLE CLASS FAMILY.

Yes you need to seize opportunities, but some get more/different opportunities than others.

"Fooled by Randomness" is a great book IMO and talks about how success in some professions is more luck dependent than others.  Generally speaking, professions that rely upon a small number of key outcomes are more dependent on luck while those that have a large number of less important outcomes tend to be less luck dependent.  Pro Golfers hit thousands of competitive shots each year, so there is almost no way to become one with pure luck and no talent.  However, there can be a handful of key shots that can move a career forward or back each year and these are where luck can play a bit of a factor at times.

Another thing I wanted to mention is that I think some guys are more apt to thrive and improve their game AFTER reaching the tour by practicing with the best players, facilities, equipment, technology, etc.  Look at a guy like Steve Marino- hurt this season, but did well on tour after playing several years on the mini tours and finishing outside the top 25 on the Nationwide Tour.  Fred Funk also seemed to bloom after reaching tour at a bit of an advanced age.  When I met him he was the University of Maryland golf coach and I was really surprised to see him winning PGA Tour events a few years later.

[TN94z]

Originally Posted by MEfree

So what are you saying, every poor kid wasn`t unlucky, he just had no skill at picking parents?

Haha...I figured someone would jump on that one,  but i'll bite.   What are you saying?  That every kid that is not rich should be looked upon as being unlucky?  If a family is not rich, the kid was just "unlucky" that he was born to these parents? I just don't base my sense of wealth solely on money.   I grew up more on the poor side than on the rich side, but I consider myself rich in the fact that I had a caring family. I had two parents that took care of me and made sure I had what I needed with limited funds.  I see many rich parents that could care less about their child.  Money isn't everything my friend, it's only as important as you make it.  You are basically labeling every poor kid in the nation as "unlucky" which, IMO, gives the kids the mindset that they are owed something and they will always have that to fall back on as an excuse for failure.  Many kids are set up for failure by statements just like that.  How many star athletes have we seen that have come from nothing to have it all?  Would they now consider it lucky or would it be the hard work they put in with practice, exercising, studying their respective sports that got them where they are?  Or should a rich kid who was "lucky" to have all that money feel "unlucky" to have gotten where he is today?  The lucky and unlucky card gets played way too much and it has lost all relevance to me. This could go on and on and it will quickly get away from the original question....

But yes, I am saying that every "poor kid" wasn't unlucky.   Just because you don't have all the money in the world, doesn't mean you are unlucky.

As far as the opportunities statement, some will ALWAYS get more/different opportunities than others income aside.  Location, who's watching, coaching staff, sponsors, family participation...the list goes on and on.  When do you stop blaming it on being lucky and unlucky?  You could use the terms lucky and unlucky for just about everything that happens in your life.  That's just the way it is.  I believe in fate, things happen for a reason, etc, etc....

But you have peaked my interest in the book. I'll have to give that a read

[Golfingdad]

Originally Posted by MEfree

"Fooled by Randomness" is a great book IMO and talks about how success in some professions is more luck dependent than others.  Generally speaking, professions that rely upon a small number of key outcomes are more dependent on luck while those that have a large number of less important outcomes tend to be less luck dependent.

"Outliers" is fantastic in that same regard.  The first chapter explains how you had a better chance at becoming a pro hockey player just by being born in January.

[TourSpoon]

Originally Posted by lumpuckeroo

IMHO, golf is skill that can only be obtained through hard work.  In a round of golf, you might get some lucky breaks, but the score is objective, it is what it is.  You don't get to reduce your score because you made a good swing but the ball hit a rock and bounced bad for you.  You might get a lucky break in your career(see John Daly winning the PGA at Crooked Stick), but you don't get a PGA Tour card because you have a nice swing.

John Daly's "luck" was Nick Price w/ding from the Tournament. That break allowed his skill to rise to the top to win the PGA and also win a British Open.

[TN94z]

Originally Posted by TourSpoon

John Daly's "luck" was Nick Price w/ding from the Tournament. That break allowed his skill to rise to the top to win the PGA and also win a British Open.

Who's to say he wouldn't have still made it regardless of that WD?  Or what did Daly do to put himself in the position to be an alternate?  Guys in the past have also gotten into tournaments because of WDs, but didn't seize the opportunity as Daly did.

And I'm not trying to argue with anyone really.  We just see things differently.  I'm not trying to change anyone's opinion on anything, just stating mine.

[Valleygolfer]

A child's genes are presented at that precise moment and time. Just because you may not know when or what at that moment does not make it random. If your parents chose a different time to combine their genes a completely different outcome would occur. There is no accident. Two genes, and a scientific outcome. Nothing else could happen. After you are born every experience and choice leads you exactly where you are. There is no other way based on your decisions.

[sean_miller]

Originally Posted by TN94z

Quote:

Originally Posted by TourSpoon

John Daly's "luck" was Nick Price w/ding from the Tournament. That break allowed his skill to rise to the top to win the PGA and also win a British Open.

Who's to say he wouldn't have still made it regardless of that WD?  Or what did Daly do to put himself in the position to be an alternate?  Guys in the past have also gotten into tournaments because of WDs, but didn't seize the opportunity as Daly did.

And I'm not trying to argue with anyone really.  We just see things differently.  I'm not trying to change anyone's opinion on anything, just stating mine.

Maybe he got lucky the championship was on a bomber's paradise that year and the committee hadn't foreseen a specimen like Daly being in the field - rumour has it they were using Greg Norman as the yardstick for course set up.

[TourSpoon]

Originally Posted by TN94z

Quote:

Originally Posted by TourSpoon

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumpuckeroo

IMHO, golf is skill that can only be obtained through hard work.  In a round of golf, you might get some lucky breaks, but the score is objective, it is what it is.  You don't get to reduce your score because you made a good swing but the ball hit a rock and bounced bad for you.  You might get a lucky break in your career(see John Daly winning the PGA at Crooked Stick), but you don't get a PGA Tour card because you have a nice swing.

John Daly's "luck" was Nick Price w/ding from the Tournament. That break allowed his skill to rise to the top to win the PGA and also win a British Open.

Who's to say he wouldn't have still made it regardless of that WD?  Or what did Daly do to put himself in the position to be an alternate?  Guys in the past have also gotten into tournaments because of WDs, but didn't seize the opportunity as Daly did.

And I'm not trying to argue with anyone really.  We just see things differently.  I'm not trying to change anyone's opinion on anything, just stating mine.

It would have been hard to win that tournament if he didn't play in it.

I was responding to the first statement that luck actually had anything to do with John Daly winning and that if there was luck that it would be him getting the chance to even play. Maybe he mailed in his application late and that caused him to be the 9th alternate, but he was the 9th alternate. Regardless, Nick Price's w/ding was not skill related (not necessarily luck either). Once Daly got on the course, his skill allowed him to win, not a lucky break.

For what it is worth, I don't necessarily believe that luck has much to do with winning golf tournaments. The "breaks" have more to do with helping you to at least try. Being born in an optimal environment, getting the attention from a coach, getting early sponsorship from club members, etc, can make your run more favorable, but skill gets you there and keeps you there. If you don't have the skill, golf will expose you every time.

[MEfree]

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

"Outliers" is fantastic in that same regard.  The first chapter explains how you had a better chance at becoming a pro hockey player just by being born in January.

I liked Outliers and have quoted this same hockey stat to people, but read today that Gladwell may have overstated his case http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/making-the-nhl-does-your-birthday-matter/article1462192/

Originally Posted by TN94z

Haha...I figured someone would jump on that one,  but i'll bite.   What are you saying?  That every kid that is not rich should be looked upon as being unlucky?  If a family is not rich, the kid was just "unlucky" that he was born to these parents? I just don't base my sense of wealth solely on money.   I grew up more on the poor side than on the rich side, but I consider myself rich in the fact that I had a caring family. I had two parents that took care of me and made sure I had what I needed with limited funds.  I see many rich parents that could care less about their child.  Money isn't everything my friend, it's only as important as you make it.  You are basically labeling every poor kid in the nation as "unlucky" which, IMO, gives the kids the mindset that they are owed something and they will always have that to fall back on as an excuse for failure.  Many kids are set up for failure by statements just like that.  How many star athletes have we seen that have come from nothing to have it all?  Would they now consider it lucky or would it be the hard work they put in with practice, exercising, studying their respective sports that got them where they are?  Or should a rich kid who was "lucky" to have all that money feel "unlucky" to have gotten where he is today?  The lucky and unlucky card gets played way too much and it has lost all relevance to me. This could go on and on and it will quickly get away from the original question....

But yes, I am saying that every "poor kid" wasn't unlucky.   Just because you don't have all the money in the world, doesn't mean you are unlucky.

As far as the opportunities statement, some will ALWAYS get more/different opportunities than others income aside.  Location, who's watching, coaching staff, sponsors, family participation...the list goes on and on.  When do you stop blaming it on being lucky and unlucky?  You could use the terms lucky and unlucky for just about everything that happens in your life.  That's just the way it is.  I believe in fate, things happen for a reason, etc, etc....

But you have peaked my interest in the book. I'll have to give that a read

I agree with a lot of what you are saying...you are not going to make it on tour or life if you are constantly looking at your bad luck.  You are right that money isn`t everything in life or upbringing.  In fact, guys with too much money or other opportunities in life may have less of a drive to stick with golf (or other sports) and grind it out on mini-tours, etc. when when they don`t make it on tour at 21.  Lots of people will tell young athletes that it is good to get educated and have a fall back position if you don`t make it, and I tend to agree with this, but in some ways the best motivator might be no fall back position.

With that said, I think it is hard to dispute that where you are born matters in terms of your chances of making it as a professional golfer.  China alone has something like 20% of the worlds population and some very good athletes, but not too many players on the PGA Tour.  How many successful Afgan, Ethiopian, Nigerian or Russian golfers can you name?  And it is not just money or country of birth that is going to affect a young persons odds of making it on the PGA Tour.  Course access has to play a role.  I don`t have the stats, but I would guess that there are a lot more PGA Tour players that were born and raised in New Zealand than Manhattan despite the fact that the US has the most top golfers and Manhattan has a larger population than NZ.

[Shorty]

Originally Posted by MEfree

A guy (who) might be able to beat Dufner or Johnson half the time on his home course without a lot of pressure, yes that is possible,

Why would that be possible?

Do you really think that not knowing a course is so huge a disadvantage to the best players in the world that a local noone has ever heard of might beat them half the time at that course?

There are endless stories of players turning up to tournaments and not having practice rounds and shooting amazing scores.

[tuffluck]

Thanks for the responses.  I thought about this some more after I posted, and realized a few things myself.  I think the weeding-out process of golfers is a little bit more practical.  If you're good, you can play amateur tours.  If you're one of the best there, you can go to Q-school or the web.com tour.  If you're really good there, you can go pro.  It's a pretty *easy* (conceptually) way to track the best of the best.

But that doesn't exist in showbiz.  Sure, there are auditions for parts, but not anyone off the street can walk into an audition for Iron Man 3.  And it's not like there is any lower level where you can say "If I start here and I'm good, I am guaranteed a shot at a role in Iron Man 3 eventually."  With golf, if you start at the bottom and you are that good, your skill will get you to each next level.  There are no levels in Hollywood, and a lot of ambiguity is present around the idea of someone going from a "nobody" to a "somebody."

I think if golf lacked this tracking system and relied more on this ambiguous "maybe" concept, maybe you would never see a Jason Dufner or a Zach Johnson playing in the pros at all.  Maybe they got comfortable in their white-collared lifestyle and figured the idea of never knowing where you stand or how to move up just isn't work the risk.  I.E. there may be 100 potential George Clooney's out there, but only 1 of them was ever going to be "The" George Clooney, and only half of them ever tried.