235 Out on This Par Five - What's the Play?

[Strandly]

Originally Posted by RadarNinja

I understand the question fine... A lot of responses were a bit unrealistic IMO. I guarantee that the stats would show a lower scoring average if most ams laid up. 235 is low % unless your advanced

Of course it's a low percentage shot, but it's a casual game (I think) and it's not being made by a newbie.  If the OP had said this was a tournament shot I would probably recommend something more conservative.

[cipher]

I understand the question fine... A lot of responses were a bit unrealistic IMO. I guarantee that the stats would show a lower scoring average if most ams laid up. 235 is low % unless your advanced

Laid up to what? Proximity to hole statistically trumps laying up to say a comfy 100y wedge shot. As long as the 10hc can hit it safely close to the green they should take the longer club they know will allow them to do so. There is no major trouble on this hole that I see. I would take the 10hc within 20 yards of the green any day of the same guy from 100 yards out.

[RadarNinja]

But you don't know anything about that players skill level. That's why I said lay up to that players comfortable yardage( assuming they have one) regardless if its 100 or 20 yds. No one can speak to how a different player should strategize a hole. But very few players get home from that distance, and most posts suggest playing cuts/ draws whatever and going for it. If score is the goal, going for it isn't yielding the lowest score for the amateurs, although a bit over optimistic, who post on this site.

[cipher]

But you don't know anything about that players skill level. That's why I said lay up to that players comfortable yardage( assuming they have one) regardless if its 100 or 20 yds. No one can speak to how a different player should strategize a hole. But very few players get home from that distance, and most posts suggest playing cuts/ draws whatever and going for it. If score is the goal, going for it isn't yielding the lowest score for the amateurs, although a bit over optimistic, who post on this site.

That is because most people are responding to the original question which is a guy who is +1 and striking the ball well. That is a very low single digit player or a scratch guy.

[Strandly]

Originally Posted by RadarNinja

But you don't know anything about that players skill level.

Again, you seem to be completely ignoring the OP.  His index says pro and he said he was hitting the ball well and is +1 for the day.  What more do you need?

[RadarNinja]

It's no different than soliciting advice from a playing partner who hits the ball 30 yds shorter than me on what club to pull off the tee... Although well intentioned,it's almost never correct ( for my game) .

[MyrtleBeachGolf]

If I was playing that shot, the decision is very easy for me. It's a safe play I know, but I would hit a 9iron down the left hand side, and try to give me a good angle in to the green from 100-105 yards (depending on wind). Then I would hit a smooth wedge at the pin. There's a good chance I would leave myself a 8-15 foot birdie putt. Worst case scenario I 2 putt for the par. If I was a scratch golfer with more distance in my bag, I would pull a hybrid, aim left edge of green, and try to hit a cut that either rolls up on or just sits short. Should be an easy birdie from either situation.

[bplewis24]

Originally Posted by RadarNinja

It's no different than soliciting advice from a playing partner who hits the ball 30 yds shorter than me on what club to pull off the tee... Although well intentioned,it's almost never correct ( for my game) .

So then I guess caddying will be going out of business soon?

[RadarNinja]

Caddies know their players, pretty silly analogy. This thread, apparently, is about playing vicariously through someone else. I just don't understand the logic of analyzing strategy when it doesn't apply to your own game. I certainly know how I would approach that situation, but can't speak for anyone else... Risk/ reward might mean something different to different people.

[iacas]

I just don't understand the logic of analyzing strategy when it doesn't apply to your own game.

Then don't participate. I think there's lot to be learned about course strategy and such. Simply adjusting distances can make the situation apply to many people. And I'll mark you down as not buying our book. Fine by me. :-)

[MS256]

Originally Posted by RadarNinja

Yea... Statistically most if not all of you low double/ high single digit caps are going to miss the green from 235 anyway. There's no ideal play, as Hacket put it, very dependent on your individual skill level. I bet the scoring average on the hole would be significantly lower if most put away the 3-wood/ hybrids and laid up to a comfy wedge distance. I see a lot of thinned/ topped/ swipey fairway woods ending up in bad shape....

When I am mowing the course I see lots of players laid up to a "comfy" wedge distance from the island green. At least half go in the water and of the half that got on the green a small percentage actually make the putt.

You are right that some people would have no business trying to go for the green. If you don't have the shot you don't have the shot.

Put water, knee high grass, or swamp anywhere around that green and I might not go for it but nothing I see in the pictures would scare me off of going for it. If I play a cut my miss is going to be short and right most of the time so it looks like either an eagle putt or a bunker shot to me.

In the words of Tin Cup. "You can hit that shot. Hell I can hit that shot. Hit the $#%$%$# 3".

[nick1998bunker]

Yea... Statistically most if not all of you low double/ high single digit caps are going to miss the green from 235 anyway. There's no ideal play, as Hacket put it, very dependent on your individual skill level. I bet the scoring average on the hole would be significantly lower if most put away the 3-wood/ hybrids and laid up to a comfy wedge distance. I see a lot of thinned/ topped/ swipey fairway woods ending up in bad shape....

Except this guy is 1 over so he's obviously good or playing well, it depends on his miss and whatnot [quote name="pepsiplusconker" url="/t/69652/235-out-on-this-par-five-whats-the-play/60#post_891402"]What I mean is, me personally, it would never end up in that bunker, because 95% of shots with my woods go left to right slightly, so with the wind against me, its going to go even more left to right. [/quote] in that case worst scenario is long right where you can't get spin

[Kelzzy]

Originally Posted by iacas

The situation: +1 on the day, E on the back nine, and you drive it into the right side of the fairway on the par-five 13th.

The wind is into you a little bit. You have 235 yards to a back right hole location and 215 to clear the middle of the right bunker. Your hybrid flies about 225-235, your 3W about 245, and your 3I 210, 4I 200, etc. You're playing well and hitting the ball solidly.

Long and left of the green is a big steep drop-off (it's tough to see this in the pictures) of about 15-20 feet in height. There's a big bowl in the front-left corner of the green.

Seems like a fun shot. I'd use a 3 wood with a slice. Slice to take away power, and I would not swing as hard. My best 3 wood carries about 260, but with a slice and smooth swing, it'll probably hit the front of the green and spin right because of the spin.

Then again, I may just go for the pin. But the first option is safer.

[nick1998bunker]

It's all about being honest with your ability to pull it off and where your miss is... For instance, yesterday I had 240 to a green into the wind with water all left and short on the front of the green extending halfway right of the green, I took my 3 wood and planned on putting it back in my stance for a low shot and also because my miss is right with that, my plan was that if I miss I would miss right and short and have an easy chip, anyway I hit a shot that went farther than expected and rolled back down to 4 feet, but I was honest with myself in that I knew how to make my miss right and that I would probably come up short,,, but it paid off cause I missed in a good spot

[RandallT]

Nick1998bunker, meet Kelzzy. You are both young prodigies who recently joined TST.  We will be following both your careers, so don't let us down.

[dsc123]

If the lie is such that you can get a 3w on it, hit a cut to land in the center/back of the green.    Otherwise, use hybrid and try to land a cut on the front center.

[mdl]

Fun post!  Answering before reading any but the original post.

As you, a scratch player with that setup, I'm hitting hybrid every time.  Pretty big green, the only really dangerous miss is the pull bomb that gets down in the gully past the green.  A shot with good contact clears the right bunker, and the left bunker isn't disastrous for an up and down for birdie attempt.

As me, it depends.  If I'm feeling it with the long clubs that day, I'm still hitting hybrid.  My distances are almost identical to yours, and my miss with that on a day when I'm striking it well is just a slight over-fade.  So I'm taking a stock full shot at the center of the green and hoping for a minor fade right at the pin.

If I'm not feeling great with the long clubs that day I'm probably hitting 5i or 6i, whatever I think get's me closest to the hole without bringing the bunkers in play at all, setting up for an attempt at a 30-35 yard pitch for an up and down birdie.

[MEfree]

Not exactly the same, but many players had a somewhat similar shot into 18 today (back right hole, but no trees to force a left to right shot).  Stenson, with a 2 shot lead still went for the green and hit a 3i to the front left.  Spieth pulled off an aggressive left to right shot and made eagle while Stricker's stayed out on the left side of the green and made a two putt birdie.  Els made the mistake of long left and made par while Poulter missed right and ended up making a mess of it.  Maybe it was the TV coverage, but I didn't notice anyone lay up (except maybe one guy who bunkered it off the tee, but maybe that was another hole).

If Erik is comfortable fading the ball, then the hybrid is a good play for him with a good shot being front left to center of the green.  Being a lefty actually is advantageous because a bit of a pull or hook could get you to the pin (while an extra cut might come up short for a righty).