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how would you play it? (my local course, hardest hole par4)

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1st hole par4 has been quite hard to play for me! (those first tee jitters)

SOME NOTES ABOUT HOLE:

-distances in meters.

-preferrably some kind of tactic from short tees.

-the dogleg is seemingly difficult to cut, slices could impact the elevated hill on the right side of the hole. Push shots to the right will also disappear into the right side rough.

-the elevated hill with trees is approximately to the right of the small lake (can't fly over that thing unless you're a huge hitter, in my estimation, because of trees and hill)

-there are small thicket of trees, between the thin water hazard and the small lake. This area is flatter, but hitting the trees can cause bad bounces into water.

-pull slice, or long-hitted straight slice will be successful, I think. A high altitude fade or high altitude straight shot might cut the dogleg, clear across water and land in play.

-Right side rough is penal across entire hole, you will lose balls in the bushes over there. Left side rough is also penal, but right side is just nightmare.

-Green is quite tilted uphill, judging from fairway. If you overshoot green, prepare for nightmare downhill putts.

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A pretty straight forward hole.  Driver pretty much right down the middle and allowing for my normal fade.  Aiming for the tree that's 238m out / 143m in.  Should end up on the left side of the fairway with a mid-iron into the green.

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Driver down the center left of the fairway to clear the water if it fades too much.  If long through the fairway is not too penal, that is the play.

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Red tee close. Im usually scared about driver on the first hole (miss shot is push slice or slice) Red tee is flat with fairway. All other tees have elevation higher.
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So it's 154 yards from the red tee to the water, am I reading that right? Looks like a 170-180 yard tee shot aimed up the middle leaves you in the fairway or just through it(in left rough) and then you have another 170 yard shot to the green.

If you're not comfortable carrying the water, that's the way to play it IMO. You gotta play with what you have, not what you wish you had.

There's a 290 yard Par 4 at my home course where I routinely hit a 5 iron(180 yard club) from the tee, any further and you're dealing with a narrow, sloping fairway that has water left and OB right. It's a sucker hole basically.

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If your handicap is 44, play it as a par 5 and don't try going for the green in two.

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Red tee close. Im usually scared about driver on the first hole (miss shot is push slice or slice)

Red tee is flat with fairway. All other tees have elevation higher.

That's drivable par 4 distance here.

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That's drivable par 4 distance here.

I'm just going by what the OP said but........

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YES, you have to "skyball" a little bit with your teeshot in my estimation. If you want to hit directly to the green, cutting the entire hole with a straight shot, you have to hit a fairly high altitude shot (presumably to maximize carry distance)

There is a hill with some trees, directly between the green and the teebox, in my estimation. The green is not visible from any of the teeboxes. But even so, if you were a longhitter, strong fade with driver would still fly above any trees and land in the fairway.

For drivable par4, the distance to the green's center is 317 yards (290m). So, If you can carry ball in air with driver, 317 yards, you are in the green in one shot. Rough on the right is penal, balls can be lost easily.

Green is not visible at all, from the teeboxes. Any of them. (hill blocks the view). But if you are a longhitter, then you can carry the ball from the short tees, over the small lake, for sure. (puts you in good wedge shot position)

Sadly I'm not exactly sure how much yardage is needed to carry over that small lake, from short tees, the picture looks too smudgy. The actual physical placards which show the hole information, are better and bigger at the course, but I don't have any bigger pictures at the moment.

That's drivable par 4 distance here.

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A pretty straight forward hole.  Driver pretty much right down the middle and allowing for my normal fade.  Aiming for the tree that's 238m out / 143m in.  Should end up on the left side of the fairway with a mid-iron into the green.

If you are reading that correctly, then it seems that you must be a longhitter if you want to cut the dogleg like the course designers intended (carry over the small lake)

To carry over the small lake , you gotta hit minimum approx. 270 yard CARRY from short tees. (assuming that, the specific tree you mentioned, is about 260 yards from the short tees). Assuming that you are aiming for the "pointy corner" of the small lake, closest portion of the lake towards the green,

I know, the distances are exactly speaking 261 yards to carry over the small lake , but to land comfortably IN fairway, AND carry over the small lake, it must be about 270 yards to carry to be safe.

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If you are reading that correctly, then it seems that you must be a longhitter if you want to cut the dogleg like the course designers intended (carry over the small lake) To carry over the small lake , you gotta hit minimum approx. 270 yard CARRY from short tees. (assuming that, the specific tree you mentioned, is about 260 yards from the short tees). Assuming that you are aiming for the "pointy corner" of the small lake, closest portion of the lake towards the green, I know, the distances are exactly speaking 261 yards to carry over the small lake , but to land comfortably IN fairway, AND carry over the small lake, it must be about 270 yards to carry to be safe.

That's not what I said at all. I'm not going anywhere near that pond. I'm hitting a fade right down the middle. Should end up out around that tree on the left side of the fairway.

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I can usually barely get an idea what I would do on a hole even with pictures from ground level and a Google Earth shot. Even harder from just that scorecard drawing.

So just based on what I see from the information provided:

If I am hitting a fade my miss is almost always going to be right of my target and with a draw my miss is almost always going to be left of my target. Based on those percentages I hit a draw on those kinds of holes with my initial aiming point as far down the lake as I think I can carry safely.

If the hole were opposite of this one with the pond on the left I would hit a fade as far down the lake as I thought I could safely carry.

I do much better aiming more toward trouble and moving the ball away from it than I do aiming away from trouble and moving the ball toward it (or hoping to hit a straight ball).

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That's not what I said at all. I'm not going anywhere near that pond. I'm hitting a fade right down the middle. Should end up out around that tree on the left side of the fairway.

I never claimed that this was your strategy. It was simply for clarification purposes. Because some other people were opining, that this would be a drivable par4. I should have written my post more clearly in the passive tense, because I meant it in the passive tense, towards everybody interested.

You said that the distance was 238m 260 yards along that arc, to the tree at the fairway, (from the tee, towards the tree)

And when you stretch that arc rightwards, across the lake, you can only barely clear the water, so if anybody was going for the green. They'd have to be longhitter with 270 yards carry, safe on the fairway. Then they have short lob shot / chip, and one putt for birdie.

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