2014 Open Championship (British Open) at Royal Liverpool Discussion Thread

[Mulligan Jeff]

No stopping the Rory Train Cuz the train is on track!!

[FarawayFairways]

Is it not the case however that the Met Office have a frankly lousy record of forecasting, and will also issue over reaction amber warnings for a brisk breeze and modest rain as a precuationary measure. They certainly get a lot more of these alarmist weather warnings wrong than they ever get right, and one does suspect that there is something of a health and safety culture behind a lot of their forecasting. Hell it was only a few years ago they told us we'd have a record hot summer and we ended up with the wettest in history!

Lightning we can all accept the dangers of, but rain? surely golf's always been played in rain, and should be until such time as the course is deemed unplayable. That's the luck of the draw. Weather has always played a part in golf.  If I'm in the clubhouse on 6 under and a strom is brewing up I'm happy. I want the players out the course to have to play in those conditions. Further more I think that provided the players and spectators aren't in any danger, then the adminsitrating authorities have a responsibility to me as well, and that's to give everyone a fair and equal chance to win, what is called after all 'the Open' championship, precisely because it is open

[nevets88]

R & A made the right weather call...

[Thrash13]

I definitely think Rory will win the Claret Jug tomorrow, but I think it will get interesting. One or two of those guys will make a run at some point, but even if McIlroy shoots 72 or 73, he'll be tough to catch. It's crazy how quickly it went from "crazy Sunday finish" to "possibly boring Martin Kaymer U.S. Open finish." Lol I'll be up fairly early and watching though. Three of my favorites are in the last two groups along with Rory.

[brookter]

Is it not the case however that the Met Office have a frankly lousy record of forecasting, and will also issue over reaction amber warnings for a brisk breeze and modest rain as a precuationary measure. They certainly get a lot more of these alarmist weather warnings wrong than they ever get right, and one does suspect that there is something of a health and safety culture behind a lot of their forecasting. Hell it was only a few years ago they told us we'd have a record hot summer and we ended up with the wettest in history!

Lightning we can all accept the dangers of, but rain? surely golf's always been played in rain, and should be until such time as the course is deemed unplayable. That's the luck of the draw. Weather has always played a part in golf.  If I'm in the clubhouse on 6 under and a strom is brewing up I'm happy. I want the players out the course to have to play in those conditions. Further more I think that provided the players and spectators aren't in any danger, then the adminsitrating authorities have a responsibility to me as well, and that's to give everyone a fair and equal chance to win, what is called after all 'the Open' championship, precisely because it is open

A couple of points:

Firstly, it's often the press's hyping of the Met's forecast which turns out to be wrong, rather than the forecast itself, particularly with the long-range ones. If we're talking about the same summer, then IIRC the Met said something like '50% chance of a hot summer' and the Sun printed 'Phew what a scorcher!'...

Secondly, they probably can't win. Interpret the probabilities too narrowly and they'll be blamed for not warning people at all. But it's not the Met office who made the call to change the schedule -- that's always the organisers. In fact, reading between the lines of the video of the announcement, the R&A; have also employed their own experts.

In this case it seems the experts thought there was enough probability of lightning to make the call. I'm not sure rain came into it.

[nevets88]

I wonder. McIlroy won his last two majors by wide margins. It looks like this one perhaps. You had Kaymer with the US Open. Is it me - does it feel like close finishes involving 2-4 players are rarer?

[FarawayFairways]

In this case it seems the experts thought there was enough probability of lightning to make the call. I'm not sure rain came into it.

I note the Met Office lost their funding for the long range weather forecasting off the back of that though, so it can't all have been down to the Murdoch press.

Coming back to the issue here though, and the press release that you've kindly dug out:

"David Rickman, The R&A;’s Executive Director of Rules and Equipment Standards, said: “On a beautiful evening such as we have today, it is hard to believe the disruptive forecast that we have received for tomorrow. The Met Office’s on-site forecasters believe that there is to be a significant risk of thunderstorms and heavy rain, which will interrupt tomorrow’s play. This is consistent with the Amber weather warning that has been issued for much of England and Wales. Therefore, we have taken a number of decisions regarding tomorrow’s play to maximise the chances of completing the Championship on time."

I think there's a few issues, probably no correct answer. Initially you highlighted the "risk of thunderstorms and heavy rain" and suggested that they were'n't necessarily being distinguished as exclusive of each other, but seen instead as a joint risk. Thunderstorms we can accept, but rain we should play through for so long as we can, and say tough luck to those who suffer, and good luck to those who benefitted. That's golf. There's always been a relationship with the weather. I think the key words however are "interrupt" (as in the days play). Had they said that there was a significant risk of thunderstorms and rain leaving the days play incomplete, then I could probably accept it that little bit more easily (although even then there would be an argument for allowing nature to run its course, and carrying over onto the Monday if necessary in order to be fair to all the competitors). If the threat was interruption rather than cancellation though, well should they not have played and said it's a requirement of the players to play under these circumstances. We can play until 9.30 in the evening on the third day if needed?

[brookter]

It's not just the Murdoch press that can't cope with probability, though  - the rest of the press (and most of us) are equally bad at assessing risk probability.

Actually, no I don't think that 'thunderstorms and rain' was seen as a joint risk (I think that might have been another poster). I think that once they were advised that there was a significant risk of thunderstorms, they acted on that. They felt they might need to suspend play because of that risk and that the rain didn't really come into it.

Once they've decided that the risk of thunderstorms is credible, then the calculations start as to how long they need to finish today's play today.

From the video of the announcement (it's on the same site), they calculated that they needed 10.5 hours to get the whole field through in first-tee only 2 balls. So, say there are 15 hours available (6.30am to 9.30pm), that leaves only 4.5 hours of interruption before play goes into tomorrow. Obviously they thought that the reported risk of thunderstorms would incur delays longer than that. By going to 2-tee 3 balls, they can get the field through in 7.5 hours, which gives them an extra 3 hours leeway to fit all the play in, up till 9.30 and darkness.

If that was their thinking (and I'm only reading between the lines, of course), then it doesn't seem to me to be unreasonable.

Personally I think the R&A; like it when it's pouring down and blowing a gale -- shows how tough and 'old-school' the competition is. I don't think they'd have acted on heavy rain alone.

[FarawayFairways]

Sounds reasonable enough to me Brookter

I assumed they must have acted on the lightning associated with the rain, even if they've ended up acting on rain as events transpired (so far as I'm aware). I can understand that, even though it says "thunderstorms and heavy rain". It should have just said thunderstorms, or perhaps they could have gone dramatic and inserted the word 'violent' (we always like that)

I'd probably have issued the following statement myself.

“On a beautiful evening such as we have today, it is hard to believe the disruptive forecast that we have received for tomorrow. In fact it's hard to believe any forecast in the UK, but we have to start somewhere. So in recognition that the Met Office’s on-site forecasters / guessers have been procured by the R&A; to spend a week at the Open and need to justify the costs, we''ve decided that there is to be a significant risk of hideously violent thunderstorms of biblical proportions, which will wipe out tomorrows play as well as the poor buggers stuck up in the BBC's cherry pickers. This is consistent with the amber weather warning that has been issued for much of England and Wales, and which are routinely thrown around like confetti but rarely come to anything. Still, it always means the Sunday Express can run a story when they haven't got a Diana conspiracy theory, or another siting of Madeline. Therefore, we have taken a number of decisions regarding tomorrow’s play to maximise the chances of Rory McIlroy, sorry, I meant completing the Championship in line with the demands of our sponsors, corporate debentures, and television schedules. Yes I know Wimbledon has been played on Monday before, but lets be honest, they had to stick a roof on the court, and we could hardly do that to Hoylake. So every one plays early tomorrow off four different starting tees, and if we can't finish on time, we'll play the remainer on the indoor crazy golf course at Southport Creek"

[Monte the Bear]

Let's not kid ourselves this was about the lightning - the lightning has been bouncing around us all day and we got a really big storm at 5.30-6.30pm with multiple strikes pretty close.

Seen pictures of the greens and fairways flooded makes me believe the R&A; actually made a very good call - play got completed, no-one has to come back on a Sunday, which utterly ruins the comp.

If you think the US transmitters are happy about the timing, knowing that Tiger and McIlroy were going off at 3.00-6.00am US time, yer in need of meds.

[RJH999]

Sounds reasonable enough to me Brookter I assumed they must have acted on the lightning associated with the rain, even if they've ended up acting on rain as events transpired (so far as I'm aware). I can understand that, even though it says "thunderstorms and heavy rain". It should have just said thunderstorms, or perhaps they could have gone dramatic and inserted the word 'violent' (we always like that) I'd probably have issued the following statement myself. [COLOR=181818] [COLOR=333333]“On a beautiful evening such as we have today, it is hard to believe the disruptive forecast that we have received for tomorrow. In fact it's hard to believe any forecast in the UK, but we have to start somewhere. So in recognition that the Met Office’s on-site forecasters / guessers have been procured by the R&A; to spend a week at the Open and need to justify the costs, we''ve decided that there is to be a significant risk of hideously violent thunderstorms of biblical proportions, which will wipe out tomorrows play as well as the poor buggers stuck up in the BBC's cherry pickers. This is consistent with the amber weather warning that has been issued for much of England and Wales, and which are routinely thrown around like confetti but rarely come to anything. Still, it always means the Sunday Express can run a story when they haven't got a Diana conspiracy theory, or another siting of Madeline. Therefore, we have taken a number of decisions regarding tomorrow’s play to maximise the chances of Rory McIlroy, sorry, I meant completing the Championship in line with the demands of our sponsors, corporate debentures, and television schedules. Yes I know Wimbledon has been played on Monday before, but lets be honest, they had to stick a roof on the court, and we could hardly do that to Hoylake. So every one plays early tomorrow off four different starting tees, and if we can't finish on time, we'll play the remainer on the indoor crazy golf course at Southport Creek"[/COLOR] [/COLOR]

Tl;dr, weather bad, bad weather.

[FarawayFairways]

... VICTOR DUBUISSON

hey, it could happen - Sergio, DJ and Ricky seem to be laying down.   VDub was the only guy who really killed it last couple days (other than Rory).     It will be interesting to see if Rory's putter stays hot & he stays out of the fescue on sunday.

125/1 outright tonight, albeit I'm not so sure that the 100/1 e/w isn't the better bet (third of the odds first two) especially as Dubiousons price in the win only without Rory market is 9/1 with the same layer

100/1 a third is 33/1 plus half your stake on the e/w, so a little over 16/1 your money the place

[Patch]

Did not Mcllroy's father make some bet years ago that Rory would win The Open by certain age?

[9iron]

I will be wearing an Ireland shirt during my round tomorrow. I have no concern at all that I'd be jinxing Rory. He's just too good right now to be caught.

[Zachry Michael]

Ten years ago he bet that Rory (then 15), would win The Open before he turned 26. His dad might be $300,000 richer tomorrow evening :banana: [quote name="Patch" url="/t/75401/2014-open-championship-british-open-at-royal-liverpool-discussion-thread/468#post_1023022"]Did not Mcllroy's father make some bet years ago that Rory would win The Open by certain age?  [/quote]

[JetFan1983]

Hehe, Zinger just said these guys hit it so much better than his generation did because they know the ball flight laws and he/they didn't.

Well, he said "physics" and "the math" but I think that counts.

[iacas]

Hehe, Zinger just said these guys hit it so much better than his generation did because they know the ball flight laws and he/they didn't.  Well, he said "physics" and "the math" but I think that counts.

Cool. Some truth to that I think. He's said some stupid things this week too.

[Mr. Desmond]

Course is receptive after yesterday's rains... great weather ... probably translates into an early Tiger-like win for Rors.