Are you ready for some NFL Football? 2014 Edition.

[ghalfaire]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9snXobeCC78

This Utube validates my theory

Did you watch and listen to the entire video?  At the end of the video they say that the results don't correlate with the Ideal Gas Law.  Surely you are not questioning the validity of the Ideal Gas Law. They (whoever they are) attribute this lack of correlation to the laws of physics to leakage of air from the ball (which was sitting in a garage for 8 years so probably a good guess).  There were so many uncontrolled variables in this experiment it is really meaningless relevant to implied results.  At this point I have to believe anyone who believes someone didn't, with intent, under inflate the footballs used by the Patriots has to be smoking those funny cigarettes.  Someone cheated, I don't know who.

[GolfLug]

It is not the air in the ball. It is the valve seal that holds it that can be a possible culprit.

No way air volume changes as much with the temperature change that much. The rubber valve seal behavior is much more sensitive to temperature changes. We do a lot of leak testing (pressure decay) on fuel system tubes using one way rubber valves that we make. We test to actual pressure decay specifications on our SORs Engine component statement of requirements). Over time the valve 'lets' air out. A big drop in temp from when 'system' initially pressurized accelerates the seal loss. Valve seal 'grip' proportional to temperature.

I think both sets of balls possibly 'lost' same amount of air through the valve over the game. One possibility is Colts balls started at higher pressure than Pats balls, lesser age on valves, etc. Starting pressure, temperature at the time of inflation and time elapsed since inflation, AGE of the valve, ALL matter.

[trickyputt]

Dang you guys got there quick. Go saevel25!

[saevel25]

Still no one is really looking at the fact that pressure gauges can be inaccurate as well. What if they didn't measure the NEP footballs with the same gauge as they did in the pregame? If the pressure gauges were near the outer edges of the average error then you can have a 1 psi difference between two pressure gauges.

It is very probable that this could be a whole lot of nothing going on.

[Golfingdad]

NBC gave two college players two balls, one regular one 2 psi less, and let them have a catch. They immediately knew which was which without question. Tom probably can't tell, even though he knows he prefers 12.5 to 13.

Agree that Brady could probably tell the difference, however, this is a silly experiment.  There's a huge difference between playing football with one ball and then playing football with another ball, all the while concentrating on reads and coverages and blitzes, etc, and being able to differentiate between two balls (when nobody is bringing it to your attention) and an experiement where somebody hands you two balls and says "these are different."  Know what I mean?

If I didn't tell you to look at the pictures in the back of highlights magazine for 10 differences between the two, would you even notice any?

How much is Robert Kraft paying you?

That's actually a pretty good point.....except....

Oh, and then you're accusing the Colts of cheating.  This came up in the Vikes/Packers regular season game.  The Vikes were warming the balls and were told that's not allowed.

No not at all.  I said I assume that Colts DO NOT bring their own ball boys.  Guessing that they're kids from Boston and I'm (humorously) suggesting that the ball boys on that sideline were warming the Colts balls so they wouldn't lose air and thus be an advantage.

[GolfLug]

Still no one is really looking at the fact that pressure gauges can be inaccurate as well. What if they didn't measure the NEP footballs with the same gauge as they did in the pregame? If the pressure gauges were near the outer edges of the average error then you can have a 1 psi difference between two pressure gauges.

It is very probable that this could be a whole lot of nothing going on.

I hear you. Due diligence of ALL possible details are almost always over-run by the powerful inertia of biases. The momentum is just too great. At this point it won't matter - nobody is changing their minds.

[club ho]

Why didn't Indy's footballs lose the same amount of pressure?

1)We don't know what Indy's original pressure was and what was the ambient temperature in the room that they pumped thee balls with. If there room was 68 degrees and the patriots HOME equipment/drying facility was 90 we are starting at a 22 degree starting difference. In the example of a car tire that would make 4 pound change in pressure..

2) At a minimum it debunks all you wannabe Einstein's who post theories that I am sure make sense. But I think you fail to take into account the variable  of the elasticity of the holding vessel in this case a football. I bet this theory would work in a rigid glass container. Not sure but the Ytube's don't lie.  BTW there are more coming on line as we speak with similar results. Do you think you can handle the truth? Standby!

[dsc123]

Still no one is really looking at the fact that pressure gauges can be inaccurate as well. What if they didn't measure the NEP footballs with the same gauge as they did in the pregame? If the pressure gauges were near the outer edges of the average error then you can have a 1 psi difference between two pressure gauges.

It is very probable that this could be a whole lot of nothing going on.

Its not "probable" but it sure is "possible".

Here's why this isn't convincing:  Its too easy an answer.  The investigators would have to start with checking the equipment.  This would have been solved before the game ended if that were the issue. They tested with two gauges when they found the balls to be soft, so they are clearly aware of the possibility of instrument error.  The NFL wants this to be over more than anything, and this would be an easy answer to give them that.

Its also full of assumptions.  It assumes they did not use the same gauges before and after the game. It assumes that one was not calibrated properly.  And it assumes that the pregame tests for NE balls were done with a different gauge than that used for the IND balls.  Each of these is possible.  All of them together is unlikely.

And you need to explain a 2 PSI difference, not 1.  You can't say 1 by instrument error and 1 by weather because the colts balls were still fine.  Unless I suppose they were exactly 13.5 to start and exactly 12.5 later.  Nothing to suggest that was the case.

Agree that Brady could probably tell the difference, however, this is a silly experiment.  There's a huge difference between playing football with one ball and then playing football with another ball, all the while concentrating on reads and coverages and blitzes, etc, and being able to differentiate between two balls (when nobody is bringing it to your attention) and an experiement where somebody hands you two balls and says "these are different."  Know what I mean?

If I didn't tell you to look at the pictures in the back of highlights magazine for 10 differences between the two, would you even notice any?

No not at all.  I said I assume that Colts DO NOT bring their own ball boys.  Guessing that they're kids from Boston and I'm (humorously) suggesting that the ball boys on that sideline were warming the Colts balls so they wouldn't lose air and thus be an advantage.

Yeah, the experiment doesn't "prove" anything.  Its just another bit of evidence tending to show that players can tell the difference.  Maybe you can't when playing the game.  But maybe if that were true it wouldn't make any sense to lobby the league to let you get it just where you like it.  It doesn't matter.  We already have everything we need to convict--deflated balls, in the Patriot's possession, to the patriot's advantage.  Its really just a matter of who cheated, in my opinion.

[boogielicious]

Here is a URL for all that would like to have some knowledge of the Ideal Gas Law.

http://chemwiki.ucdavis.edu/Physical_Chemistry/Physical_Properties_of_Matter/Phases_of_Matter/Gases/The_Ideal_Gas_Law

I am sure there will be a bunch of you that just can wait to see this.   You might pay special attention to the fact that the units used in the equation have to be consistent, otherwise you get an incorrect answer.  I won't bore 99% of you that don't care about the physics of gases, but I'll tell you it is highly improbable that temperature change is what caused the problem.  It just takes too large of a temperature change to deflate the ball 2 psi from 12.5 psi to make any sense at all.

Don't need the link.  I have a Masters in Chemical Engineering and have designed products that use compressed air.  The biggest mistake people make is not using absolute pressure and temperature.  You can't use gauge pressure and degrees C or F.  It needs to be psia (gauge + 14.7) and degrees K or R.  Still, a 30 degree drop in temperature will produce about 1.5 psig drop in pressure.  It was 50F at the start of the game, but may have been colder at halftime.  The next morning was below freezing.

P1	P1 abs	T1	T2	P2 abs	P2
12.5	27.2	294	277	25.63	10.93

The "2 psig" was from an unnamed source.  No actual numbers have been communicated by the NFL.  Nothing has been communicated by the NFL, which is very disappointing.

[Golfingdad]

The NFL wants this to be over more than anything, and this would be an easy answer to give them that.

I have no issue with the rest of your post, but I'm not entirely sure about this.  Although my objection here can easily be answered with "because they're idiots" and I would have no rebuttal. ;)

That said, two things lead me to question this:

1. The story I posted last night about how this controversy takes away from the "real" issues they've been having and it deflects the attention quite nicely.  For this to be true, however, they'd have to be really smart.
2. The NFL was informed of some possible issues several weeks ago.  Again, if they were smart, why wouldn't they have just gone to the Patriots and said "we've been getting some complaints that something is fishy with your game balls.  Please knock it off now so we don't have a giant scandal on our hands come Super Bowl week."

Regardless, I would like to hear the NFL come out and say something soon.

[dsc123]

Don't need the link.  I have a Masters in Chemical Engineering and have designed products that use compressed air.  The biggest mistake people make is not using absolute pressure and temperature.  You can't use gauge pressure and degrees C or F.  It needs to be psia (gauge + 14.7) and degrees K or R.  Still, a 30 degree drop in temperature will produce about 1.5 psig drop in pressure.  It was 50F at the start of the game, but may have been colder at halftime.  The next morning was below freezing.

P1

P1 abs

T1

T2

P2 abs

P2

12.5

27.2

294

277

25.63

10.93

Nice explanation.  Those are the numbers that I've seen (I've even seen other numbers and then corrections for the reasons you state).  A possible change of about 1.5, 1.6 PSI.  This still doesn't explain it.  1) its still not 2 PSI; and 2) even if you assume the NFL rounded when they said 2, and have kept that secret even though it would put this story to bed, and that it was 80 degrees in teh locker room, well what about the Colts' balls?

To me the math isn't important because if you get a number that can explain the patriot's balls, it can't explain the Colts' balls.

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by boogielicious

Don't need the link.  I have a Masters in Chemical Engineering and have designed products that use compressed air.  The biggest mistake people make is not using absolute pressure and temperature.  You can't use gauge pressure and degrees C or F.  It needs to be psia (gauge + 14.7) and degrees K or R.  Still, a 30 degree drop in temperature will produce about 1.5 psig drop in pressure.  It was 50F at the start of the game, but may have been colder at halftime.  The next morning was below freezing.

P1

P1 abs

T1

T2

P2 abs

P2

12.5

27.2

294

277

25.63

10.93

Nice explanation.  Those are the numbers that I've seen (I've even seen other numbers and then corrections for the reasons you state).  A possible change of about 1.5, 1.6 PSI.  This still doesn't explain it.  1) its still not 2 PSI; and 2) even if you assume the NFL rounded when they said 2, and have kept that secret even though it would put this story to bed, and that it was 80 degrees in teh locker room, well what about the Colts' balls?

To me the math isn't important because if you get a number that can explain the patriot's balls, it can't explain the Colts' balls.

The NFL has not told us where any of the balls were measured.

[dsc123]

I have no issue with the rest of your post, but I'm not entirely sure about this.  Although my objection here can easily be answered with "because they're idiots" and I would have no rebuttal. ;)

That said, two things lead me to question this:

The story I posted last night about how this controversy takes away from the "real" issues they've been having and it deflects the attention quite nicely.  For this to be true, however, they'd have to be really smart.

The NFL was informed of some possible issues several weeks ago.  Again, if they were smart, why wouldn't they have just gone to the Patriots and said "we've been getting some complaints that something is fishy with your game balls.  Please knock it off now so we don't have a giant scandal on our hands come Super Bowl week."

Regardless, I would like to hear the NFL come out and say something soon.

Unfortunately, I doubt that will happen.  Peter King says nothing will happen until after the super bowl.

---

@boogielicious , I'd love to know whether you fall into one of these camps:

1 - Not convinced the Pats caused the balls to deflate.

2 - Pats probably caused the balls to deflate, but who cares they would have won anyway.

Or some version that squares with your thoughts more correctly.  One of my Pats fan brother in laws went with option 2 after the denials yesterday.

[saevel25]

Its not "probable" but it sure is "possible".

Here's why this isn't convincing:  Its too easy an answer.  The investigators would have to start with checking the equipment.  This would have been solved before the game ended if that were the issue. They tested with two gauges when they found the balls to be soft, so they are clearly aware of the possibility of instrument error.  The NFL wants this to be over more than anything, and this would be an easy answer to give them that.

Really, why does every answer have to be complicated?

Nice explanation.  Those are the numbers that I've seen (I've even seen other numbers and then corrections for the reasons you state).  A possible change of about 1.5, 1.6 PSI.  This still doesn't explain it.  1) its still not 2 PSI; and 2) even if you assume the NFL rounded when they said 2, and have kept that secret even though it would put this story to bed, and that it was 80 degrees in teh locker room, well what about the Colts' balls?

To me the math isn't important because if you get a number that can explain the patriot's balls, it can't explain the Colts' balls.

Sure you can. Again what if they used two different pressure gauges? What if one ref used a gauge that was over-reading pressures by 1 PSI? What if Indy had theirs initially set up at 13.5 PSI not 12.5 PSI.

You can easily make up 2-4 PSI difference with temperature and instrument variance. I am not even saying the instruments used were faulty. I am just saying they usually have at best +/- 0.5 PSI. If one ref hat the +0.5, and the other had near the -0.5 PSI then you can get 1 PSI right there. That is just assuming those gauges are with in their margin of error.

What if Indy kept their footballs in a warmer so that they were not cold when they were put in play?

The facts are all the facts are not out. There is no proof showing that Brady or Belichek did anything to instigate this. It is probable that this could just be a set of circumstances.

Heck even if the Patriots purposely kept their footballs out in the cold is not against the rules even if they knew it would lower the PSI. Really they didn't physically change the PSI.

[dsc123]

The NFL has not told us where any of the balls were measured.

What do you mean and how would that change my point that a change in PSI big enough to explain the Pats balls would not make sense with the Colts' balls?

[dfreuter415]

Interesting items from Brady's press conference with my comments in italics:

• Brady: "I didn’t alter the ball in any way. " / Personally, I believe him.

• Question from news conference: " Can you answer right now, is Tom Brady a cheater? " TB: I don’t believe so. / Weak answer.

• Question from news conference: " Did you notice a difference in the balls used in the first half and second half?" TB: From the first half to the second half, I didn’t think twice about it... I just assumed that they were exactly the same: first half, second half. / Reports indicated that pressure was added at halftime.

• Question from news conference: " Are you comfortable that nobody on the Patriots side did anything wrong? " TB: I have no knowledge of anything. I have no knowledge of any wrongdoing. / Sounds like Sgt. Schultz on Hogan's Heroes.

• Question from news conference: " Q: Are you comfortable that nobody did anything? "  TB: Yeah, I’m very comfortable saying that. I’m very comfortable saying that nobody did it, as far as I know. I don’t know everything. I also understand that I was in the locker room preparing for a game. / Schultz, again. It is pretty obvious that somebody did something.

• Question from news conference: " Q: Did the league investigators talk to you? " TB: Not yet. / Very interesting. Makes you question the NFL's ability to run an investigation.

• Question from news conference: "Q: When you initially tested the balls, did you think you would have noticed if the balls were under-inflated at that time? " TB: I don’t know. I guess it’s a challenging thing. / To me that was an interesting response from a person who had earlier said, " I like them at the way that I like them, which is at 12.5. To me, that’s a perfect grip for the football. "

• Question from news conference: "Q: Who handles the balls after the refs hand it back to team custody?" TB: I have no idea. That’s not part of my process. / It might be true, but I find it hard to believe.

• Question from news conference: " Q: Have you reached out to the equipment staff to see if they did anything to the footballs? " TB: Yeah, and they haven’t, and I believe them, and they also know how I like the balls... / I think the telling part is when he says, " They also know how I like the balls... "

My theory: One of the equipment staff members knew how Brady liked the footballs and made the alteration.

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsc123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Golfingdad

I have no issue with the rest of your post, but I'm not entirely sure about this.  Although my objection here can easily be answered with "because they're idiots" and I would have no rebuttal. ;)

That said, two things lead me to question this:

1. The story I posted last night about how this controversy takes away from the "real" issues they've been having and it deflects the attention quite nicely.  For this to be true, however, they'd have to be really smart.
2. The NFL was informed of some possible issues several weeks ago.  Again, if they were smart, why wouldn't they have just gone to the Patriots and said "we've been getting some complaints that something is fishy with your game balls.  Please knock it off now so we don't have a giant scandal on our hands come Super Bowl week."

Regardless, I would like to hear the NFL come out and say something soon.

Unfortunately, I doubt that will happen.  Peter King says nothing will happen until after the super bowl.

---

@boogielicious , I'd love to know whether you fall into one of these camps:

1 - Not convinced the Pats caused the balls to deflate.

2 - Pats probably caused the balls to deflate, but who cares they would have won anyway.

Or some version that squares with your thoughts more correctly.  One of my Pats fan brother in laws went with option 2 after the denials yesterday.

Per this report:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/22/deflategate-video-how-nfl-officials-check-game-ball-pressure/

Quote:

The balls would be in the officials’ possession until just minutes before the start of the game, at which point they would hand to ball boys on each side of the field. For balls to be tampered with, it would most likely have to take place on the field during the game.

If this is the case, the balls would have to have been tampered with in full view of everyone on the sideline including; referees, other NFL officials, reporters and cameramen, visiting celebrities and ex-players, the television cameras that are aimed at the Patriots sideline that capture players picking their noses or waiting for Brady to drop F-bombs, Colts fans in the lower section behind the bench and Colts officials scanning the Pats sideline looking for funny business.  The tampering would have had to have someone of Penn & Teller abilities to keep anyone from seeing them do it.  I find it hard to believe that a ball boy, who is constantly running back and forth to deliver the balls to the referees would be capable of doing it.

Most of the posters in this thread don't like the Pats and cannot see any possibility that the Pats did not tamper.  Some however, think there are very plausible explanations including referees not following protocols, not measuring or testing the balls properly, measuring balls that were colder than originally measured, balls losing pressure due use and gauges that are not calibrated.

Until the NFL gets off its ass and actually does something "transparent" as they promised after the Ray Rice cluster-f**k, we will not know anything other than who hates the Patriots and who doesn't.

[dsc123]

Really, why does every answer have to be complicated?

Did you read the rest of what I wrote?  That was kind of my point.  That your explanation requires a lot of assumptions that are unlikely to have occurred, and that the people who would benefit from have not asserted in their defense.  I think the truth is the most simple solution--the people who had the ball and benefited from less pressure put a pin in the ball.

Look at your explanation.  You say its "probable" that (1) the NFL used different guages; (2) they were both wrong and in the opposite direction; (3) the balls were kept at 80* before the game; (4) the Colts started at true 14 PSI, which was mismeasured at 13.5 PSI; (5) both teams presented illegal balls that were passed only because of faulty equipment that just happened to match their under/over inflation perfectly; (6) BB told the truth; (7) t he Patriots' 12th ball was measured with a different gauge than all the others .

None of those are "probable" in themselves, let alone ALL of them.

Sure you can. Again what if they used two different pressure gauges? What if one ref used a gauge that was over-reading pressures by 1 PSI? What if Indy had theirs initially set up at 13.5 PSI not 12.5 PSI.

You can easily make up 2-4 PSI difference with temperature and instrument variance. I am not even saying the instruments used were faulty. I am just saying they usually have at best +/- 0.5 PSI. If one ref hat the +0.5, and the other had near the -0.5 PSI then you can get 1 PSI right there. That is just assuming those gauges are with in their margin of error.

What if Indy kept their footballs in a warmer so that they were not cold when they were put in play?

The facts are all the facts are not out. There is no proof showing that Brady or Belichek did anything to instigate this. It is probable that this could just be a set of circumstances.

Heck even if the Patriots purposely kept their footballs out in the cold is not against the rules even if they knew it would lower the PSI. Really they didn't physically change the PSI.

.

If IND kept their balls in a warmer then they broke the rules.

You can come up with what ifs until the cows come home.  We don't have all the facts, you're right. Its entirely possible that an explanation comes out that exonerates the Pats.  But based on the facts that we do know, its fairly certain what happened.