Will Ebola become a big problem in the United States?

[MS256]

With the nurse in Texas contracting the disease, and with seemingly either contradicting views and/or lack of knowledge about it in the medical and governmental communities, who knows where it might end?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/10/12/dallas-health-care-worker-who-treated-thomas-eric-duncan-has-tested-positive-for-ebola/

I'm hoping this thread goes nowhere.

[Lihu]

With the nurse in Texas contracting the disease, and with seemingly either contradicting views and/or lack of knowledge about it in the medical and governmental communities, who knows where it might end?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/10/12/dallas-health-care-worker-who-treated-thomas-eric-duncan-has-tested-positive-for-ebola/

I'm hoping this thread goes nowhere.

I think you meant the topic of the thread goes nowhere.

Hope you're right too.

[MS256]

I think you meant the topic of the thread goes nowhere.

Hope you're right too.

Actually I think they go hand in hand. If a month from now nobody is reading it that will be a good thing.

[Lihu]

Actually I think they go hand in hand. If a month from now nobody is reading it that will be a good thing.

So far, 2 no votes. Must be you and me.

[newtogolf]

I voted "Yes" only because it appears that we're not prepared for such a situation.  The fact someone that was infected could travel on a commercial plane, go to a hospital and be turned away indicates our infrastructure is not trained properly for handling such diseases.

Ebola has a pretty long incubation period (21 days) so who knows how many people are infected right now and just don't know it.  In the meantime they are coming into contact with others.  At some point it will become almost impossible to contain it.  We're having problems with one infected person, what happens when there are multiple and they fly into states that are even less prepared than Dallas was.

I don't think this wipes out the population but I expect it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

[MS256]

I voted "Yes" only because it appears that we're not prepared for such a situation.  The fact someone that was infected could travel on a commercial plane, go to a hospital and be turned away indicates our infrastructure is not trained properly for handling such diseases.

Ebola has a pretty long incubation period (21 days) so who knows how many people are infected right now and just don't know it.  In the meantime they are coming into contact with others.  At some point it will become almost impossible to contain it.  We're having problems with one infected person, what happens when there are multiple and they fly into states that are even less prepared than Dallas was.

I don't think this wipes out the population but I expect it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

I can't disagree with any of that and even the disruption of normal activities could eventually amount to a big deal.

Right now the news is reporting a plane and passengers detained and investigated by people in hazmat suits because 5 people on the plane having what are described as "Ebola-like symptoms".

Problem is that since it takes around 10 days for any Ebola symptoms to show up those 5 people would have all had to contracted the disease days ago and all happened to get on the same plane at the same time.

Doesn't pass the horse-sense test for it to have anything to do with Ebola.

BTW airline stocks took a beating today.

[Lihu]

I can't disagree with any of that and even the disruption of normal activities could eventually amount to a big deal.

Right now the news is reporting a plane and passengers detained and investigated by people in hazmat suits because 5 people on the plane having what are described as "Ebola-like symptoms".

Problem is that since it takes around 10 days for any Ebola symptoms to show up those 5 people would have all had to contracted the disease days ago and all happened to get on the same plane at the same time.

Doesn't pass the horse-sense test for it to have anything to do with Ebola.

BTW airline stocks took a beating today.

Ebola treatment related companies drove up to an all time high at the same time.

[Patch]

My opinion is that since it is already here, it's already a problem. All that remains to be seen now,  is how big of a problem it might become. The international airport in Las Vegas handles 21K international visitors every week. What's the odds?

The other day I was hiking and met up up with a couple of young ladies on the same trail.  They wanted to know some info about the area, and we spoke for about 30 minutes. As we were parting ways, due to their accents, I asked them where they were from. They told me they were from Chad, South Africa which is right next door to Nigeria. They had been in the U.S. for a little over a week, and had 4 more weeks to go on their visit. They flew into LAX, showed their paperwork, and in their rental car place post haste. No medical screening what so ever. I asked them if they knew about the Ebola issue, and they said they did with little or no concern showing.

Me, I took off the other way.

[Yukari]

Unfortunately, Ebola in the U.S. currently seems to be in "smoldering" stage.  It won't be long before the blaze actually starts.

I guess I should stop shaking hands with strangers I get paired up with on the golf course.  Who knows where they have been or whom they have had contacts with.

But I will tip my hat to them after the round.

[newtogolf]

The theory that people can't infect others without showing symptoms is a bit over simplified for my taste.  Screening for a fever is a good step, but is a fever the first symptom that indicates the person is contagious?

We're talking about a disease that can be transferred through bodily fluids, so in the case of Las Vegas, someone infected plays multiple slot machines while sneezing or coughing on the machine or their hand and the next person walks up to it and while playing, rubs their eyes, puts their finger or a cigarette that touches their fingers in their mouth, is that sufficient to transfer the virus?  How long can it live on a surface?

I was in Dallas the day after the Ebola story broke there.  At first it was well contained and not a lot of panic but by the time I left (2 days later) there was some serious concern about how many people came into contact with Duncan while he was contagious.  They have the names of everyone at the hospital that paid with insurance, credit card or check but not the ones that paid cash.  Just that one screw up could cause a major outbreak.

[Hammer 4]

I voted "Yes" only because it appears that we're not prepared for such a situation.  The fact someone that was infected could travel on a commercial plane, go to a hospital and be turned away indicates our infrastructure is not trained properly for handling such diseases.

Ebola has a pretty long incubation period (21 days) so who knows how many people are infected right now and just don't know it.  In the meantime they are coming into contact with others.  At some point it will become almost impossible to contain it.  We're having problems with one infected person, what happens when there are multiple and they fly into states that are even less prepared than Dallas was.

I don't think this wipes out the population but I expect it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

I agree. Also, are the experts sure about how Ebola can be contracted from someone that has it..? I think more study needs to be done. This could be a huge problem in the USA..

[Patch]

More possible info......... http://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/10/13/6959103/ebola-spread-international-epidemic-china-india-europe

[boogielicious]

I voted no.  There are so many diseases killing far more people that are not sexy enough for the media to create the "zombie apocalypse" frenzy.  West Nile has taken several this year in MA.  The flu kills hundred to thousands each year in the US.

[Valleygolfer]

I voted no.  There are so many diseases killing far more people that are not sexy enough for the media to create the "zombie apocalypse" frenzy.  West Nile has taken several this year in MA.  The flu kills hundred to thousands each year in the US.

Flu records are highly suspect my friend. ;-) Many so called outbreaks have to be analyzed to see who gets a financial gain from the outbreak. Fear and frenzy can make certain people a lot of money.

[newtogolf]

I voted no.  There are so many diseases killing far more people that are not sexy enough for the media to create the "zombie apocalypse" frenzy.  West Nile has taken several this year in MA.  The flu kills hundred to thousands each year in the US.

I don't disagree that Ebola is a sexier designer virus than the others you mentioned but neither are as lethal.  The flu typically kills people due to complications within the patient i.e. age (too old or young) and pre-existing conditions (auto-immune) to fight off the virus.  Ebola kills normal healthy people of all ages in a pretty gruesome manner.

Our hospitals are not familiar enough (as evidenced in Dallas) to identify it early and most are not equipped to isolate patients or treat it.  Let's also not forget that hospitals are breeding grounds for super virus's such as MRSR which is probably the leading cause of death of people in the hospital (but they don't want you to know that).

[misty_mountainhop]

I seriously hope it doesn't become an issue in the U.S. neck of the woods. It's a hazard group 4 organism (U.K. definition) which basically means it's very lethal and there's no known effective treatment. Past outbreaks have had ~90% mortality (although I think this one's nearer 70%) and I don't imagine it's a nice way to go. Haemorrhagic fever. Seriously nasty. About the only good thing is it's not infectious via typical airborne routes as influenza is. Given the incubation period, it's also very hard to identify carriers prior to them showing overt symptoms. I could imagine curfews and martial law situations if it becomes an issue in the U.S.

Here's a good pathogen data sheet for info:

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

[CarlSpackler]

I am abstaining which would be a vote of "I don't know and hope not".

[boogielicious]

Quote:

Originally Posted by boogielicious

I voted no.  There are so many diseases killing far more people that are not sexy enough for the media to create the "zombie apocalypse" frenzy.  West Nile has taken several this year in MA.  The flu kills hundred to thousands each year in the US.

Flu records are highly suspect my friend. Many so called outbreaks have to be analyzed to see who gets a financial gain from the outbreak. Fear and frenzy can make certain people a lot of money.

Yes, we discussed this on Saturday! My point is the media frenzy is overblown.