Donald Trump for president?

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, Lihu said:

If anything, I think the polls are reflecting a low ball figure for Trump. He's doing a lot better than the polls seem to reflect.

I am not sure about that. I always thought Trump got a big bump in the polls because he appeals to those who want to have a voice or are willing to actually answer out  a poll question. To them any outlet for their frustration is good to them. 

If a pollster called me I would hang up on them. I don't like answering them. That is one less person who would probably put down Kasich. You get a lot of those people and it skews the polls. 

5 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

One caution about polls: Most of these only have ~100 to 400 participants for cost reasons. They do not necessarily reflect the populace as a whole and are only a tool used by media, candidates, etc. to gauge interest. The margin of error is also significant. The data must be viewed with interest, but not as an absolute.

Pretty much, especially republican biased polls. Its fun to see that Fox New's always shows republican's doing much better versus Republicans than more neutral polls ;) 

---

An update from FiverthirtyEight,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-party-is-deciding-on-rubio/

Quote

The biggest problem for the anti-Trump crowd is that its support has been divided; Rubio, Bush and John Kasich are splitting the anti-Trump vote (it’s harder to say how Ted Cruz fits in here). Trump’s support has been fairly stable in national polls, at about 35 percent, over the past month, and it’s starting to look like he has a core group of supporters who will stick with him come hell or high water. On the other hand, 35 percent is not all that close to 50 percent.

More on Trump's Ceiling, 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-donald-trump-have-a-ceiling/

Quote

harry: The idea here is fairly simple isn’t it. Look at the Monmouth University poll that came out as we were sitting here. Trump’s favorable rating is again just 50 percent. His net favorability rating is only +9 percentage points in South Carolina. Rubio’s is +26. The key for Rubio is to get this to a one-on-one race. Anything else and Trump is going to coast

Again Trump is not liked. he does not have a strong favorability rating. He's just feasting on the fact that there are so many republican candidates. 

The Republican Party needs to kick out all the people pulling the serious candidates down so they can finally compete against Trump. 

[Braivo]

9 minutes ago, boogielicious said:

One caution about polls: Most of these only have ~100 to 400 participants for cost reasons. They do not necessarily reflect the populace as a whole and are only a tool used by media, candidates, etc. to gauge interest. The margin of error is also significant. The data must be viewed with interest, but not as an absolute.

Right, the larger the sample size the better, obviously. They do show general trends, especially when they all track similarly. Trump was consistent around 35% heading into NH and it was spot on. The polls don't work well in states like Iowa with open caucuses.  

7 minutes ago, Lihu said:

Seriously, I can see a popular vote of 55%/45% for Trump and he could still lose the Election because career politicians are going to do everything they can to keep Trump out of office. They are all fighting for their easy lifestyles feeding off all Americans rich and poor.

This is the fight he, and most of his supporters, are engaged in. They don't want the same establishment to run the show anymore. If anyone can dismantle the Washington elite it is Trump. It is a tremendously important battle, and will be a fight to the end because those against him have so much invested. He needs all of our support to take down the establishment. 

2 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The Republican Party needs to kick out all the people pulling the serious candidates down so they can finally compete against Trump. 

Right, you made my point from earlier without quoting it. The longer it takes them to consolidate around Rubio the better for Trump. If they don't consolidate by March 15 with FL and OH on the docket it is over, Trump wins running away. 

[Lihu]

8 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Again Trump is not liked. he does not have a strong favorability rating. He's just feasting on the fact that there are so many republican candidates. 

The Republican Party needs to kick out all the people pulling the serious candidates down so they can finally compete against Trump. 

He's not liked by the career politicians and the press. The career politicians and press want a status quo. They have no reason to want to see America become more prosperous. All they want is to keep their jobs and lifestyles.

If the Republican party is serious about winning, they will fully back Trump.

 

6 minutes ago, Braivo said:

This is the fight he, and most of his supporters, are engaged in. They don't want the same establishment to run the show anymore. If anyone can dismantle the Washington elite it is Trump. It is a tremendously important battle, and will be a fight to the end because those against him have so much invested. He needs all of our support to take down the establishment. 

Agreed.

[Elmer]

1 minute ago, Lihu said:

He's not liked by the career politicians and the press. The career politicians and press want a status quo. They have no reason to want to see America become more prosperous. All they want is to keep their jobs and lifestyles.

If the Republican party is serious about winning, they will fully back Trump.

I think that would be career suicide on their part. 
1-it would alienate many possible constituants and voters
2-if they back an outsider and he wins the party would be flooded with more outsiders thereby pushing out the politicians.

And regarding polls- they are only as accurate as the people they poll.
I recall quite a few close friends telling me that Romney was polling well and these same friends insisted Romney was winning!
We all know how that worked out!

[Lihu]

Just now, Elmer said:

I think that would be career suicide on their part. 
1-it would alienate many possible constituants and voters
2-if they back an outsider and he wins the party would be flooded with more outsiders thereby pushing out the politicians.

And regarding polls- they are only as accurate as the people they poll.
I recall quite a few close friends telling me that Romney was polling well and these same friends insisted Romney was winning!
We all know how that worked out!

What's wrong with this?

[Braivo]

Just now, Elmer said:

I think that would be career suicide on their part. 
1-it would alienate many possible constituants and voters
2-if they back an outsider and he wins the party would be flooded with more outsiders thereby pushing out the politicians.

This sounds like a positive thing, you continue to make my points. 

Just now, Elmer said:

And regarding polls- they are only as accurate as the people they poll.
I recall quite a few close friends telling me that Romney was polling well and these same friends insisted Romney was winning!
We all know how that worked out!

So "a few close friends" are now more accurate than the polls? Laughable. 

[saevel25]

9 minutes ago, Lihu said:

He's not liked by the career politicians and the press. The career politicians and press want a status quo. They have no reason to want to see America become more prosperous. All they want is to keep their jobs and lifestyles.

If the Republican party is serious about winning, they will fully back Trump.

Umm, the polls that show Trump is unfavorable are polling voters, not other senators, congressman or governors of states. 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-23766

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/quinnipiac-23790

Those each had 1300-1700 registered voters. They find trump to be about 55% unfavorable. 

[Lihu]

Just now, saevel25 said:

Umm, the polls that show Trump is unfavorable are polling voters, not other senators, congressman or governors of states. 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-23766

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/quinnipiac-23790

Those each had 1300-1700 registered voters. They find trump to be about 55% unfavorable. 

Polls are usually run by the press or affiliates.

"Huffington Post" is not exactly an unbiased source.

BTW, I'm a political moderate with no direct party affiliation.

[Elmer]

11 minutes ago, Braivo said:

This sounds like a positive thing, you continue to make my points. 

So "a few close friends" are now more accurate than the polls? Laughable. 

You want politicians out, the republican party however, does not!!!

Addressing your 2nd point. Did you not watch the last presidential election? Fox had polls showing Romney winning. My friends are devout fox news sheep.
My friends quoting these polls and pollsters were convinced Romney was winning and were shocked to find out that is not how the world works.

[Dave2512]

Some interesting Trump nuggets from flipping around cable news this AM.

MSNBC showed a group of 60-70 yr old folks at a local diner being asked questions, who they would vote for etc. Not one Trump supporter, two of them very unhappy with the debate bickering. The few that did disclose a choice named Kasich and Carson. When asked who they'd vote for if they drop out the answer was whoever is nominated.

Second clip was four college students and all had viable picks, Trump, Clinton, Sanders and Rubio. When the interviewers asked the students who and why they supported candidate X all but the Trump supporter had a good answer. When asked why Trump the student said because he will put America first. When asked how crickets.

Makes me wonder how long Trump can lead polls on attitude alone. Nobody seems to know exactly what his plans are other than he'll make America great again by making great deals. When asked how his answers are rhetoric filled evasive moves to avoid saying anything that actually means something.

But he's not alone there the GOP debates have been nothing but candidates answering questions with off topic rants. Ask Rubio if the sky is blue and his answer will be a four minute diatribe about Benghazi.

[Lihu]

5 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Some interesting Trump nuggets from flipping around cable news this AM.

MSNBC showed a group of 60-70 yr old folks at a local diner being asked questions, who they would vote for etc. Not one Trump supporter, two of them very unhappy with the debate bickering. The few that did disclose a choice named Kasich and Carson. When asked who they'd vote for if they drop out the answer was whoever is nominated.

Second clip was four college students and all had viable picks, Trump, Clinton, Sanders and Rubio. When the interviewers asked the students who and why they supported candidate X all but the Trump supporter had a good answer. When asked why Trump the student said because he will put America first. When asked how crickets.

Makes me wonder how long Trump can lead polls on attitude alone. Nobody seems to know exactly what his plans are other than he'll make America great again by making great deals. When asked how his answers are rhetoric filled evasive moves to avoid saying anything that actually means something.

But he's not alone there the GOP debates have been nothing but candidates answering questions with off topic rants. Ask Rubio if the sky is blue and his answer will be a four minute diatribe about Benghazi.

These seem pretty detailed for those willing to read them. . .https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

They seem substantial, and not just political number spouting like all the other candidates. I guess that's just the pragmatic New Yorker talking.

To be honest, if you ask any student why they support any candidate you will rarely get answers that align with their true beliefs. Most kids have no idea. There are very few exceptional kids who can come out and explain in detail why they support any belief or candidate.

[Braivo]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

Umm, the polls that show Trump is unfavorable are polling voters, not other senators, congressman or governors of states. 

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-23766

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/quinnipiac-23790

Those each had 1300-1700 registered voters. They find trump to be about 55% unfavorable. 

This does nothing but prove that he is polarizing, we knew that. His supporters are fiercely loyal and his detractors are repulsed by him. 

1 hour ago, Elmer said:

You want politicians out, the republican party however, does not!!!

Addressing your 2nd point. Did you not watch the last presidential election? Fox had polls showing Romney winning. My friends are devout fox news sheep.
My friends quoting these polls and pollsters were convinced Romney was winning and were shocked to find out that is not how the world works.

FoxNews and the Repub establishment are NOT calling for a Trump victory. They can't stand the thought. Completely different situation from Romney four years ago, they wanted him to win, they were overly optimistic. 

10 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Some interesting Trump nuggets from flipping around cable news this AM.

MSNBC showed a group of 60-70 yr old folks at a local diner being asked questions, who they would vote for etc. Not one Trump supporter, two of them very unhappy with the debate bickering. The few that did disclose a choice named Kasich and Carson. When asked who they'd vote for if they drop out the answer was whoever is nominated.

Second clip was four college students and all had viable picks, Trump, Clinton, Sanders and Rubio. When the interviewers asked the students who and why they supported candidate X all but the Trump supporter had a good answer. When asked why Trump the student said because he will put America first. When asked how crickets.

Makes me wonder how long Trump can lead polls on attitude alone. Nobody seems to know exactly what his plans are other than he'll make America great again by making great deals. When asked how his answers are rhetoric filled evasive moves to avoid saying anything that actually means something.

But he's not alone there the GOP debates have been nothing but candidates answering questions with off topic rants. Ask Rubio if the sky is blue and his answer will be a four minute diatribe about Benghazi.

This is worse than a poll of 100 people. This is simply anecdotal evidence at best, and how do you know the MSNBC producers didn't cherry pick the non-Trump supporters from their edited footage? 

Trump's support is vast and reaches across party lines. Most folks are still timid to talk openly about their support of him for fear of those aforementioned repulsed individuals. I was told to "f*** off" yesterday for voicing support for Trump. 

[Dave2512]

8 minutes ago, Braivo said:

 

 Most folks are still timid to talk openly about their support of him for fear of those aforementioned repulsed individuals. I was told to "f*** off" yesterday for voicing support for Trump. 

Talk about anecdotal.

[Braivo]

2 minutes ago, Dave2512 said:

Talk about anecdotal.

Zing! Good one.

I am not, however, a corrupt cable conglomerate pretending to be an honest journalistic franchise. I am a loyal Trump supporter and look for anecdotes to support my opinions. I am honest about such things, unlike the crooked media. 

[Braivo]

First Obama, now the Pope is attacking Trump! 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/politics/pope-francis-trump-christian-wall/index.html

Trump responded here: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-response-to-the-pope

If this guy was such a flash in the pan candidate why is he getting such a strong reaction from prominent individuals? Interesting. When has a Presidential candidate ever elicited this much hate even prior to becoming the nominee?

He has a lot of very important people very nervous for a reason, he wants to destroy the status quo. Look for the hate to increase when his nomination becomes inevitable. 

Also, the man who criticized him for wanting a wall lives here:

 

[Dave2512]

13 minutes ago, Braivo said:

Zing! Good one.

I am not, however, a corrupt cable conglomerate pretending to be an honest journalistic franchise. I am a loyal Trump supporter and look for anecdotes to support my opinions. I am honest about such things, unlike the crooked media. 

Oh yeah the cable news networks are entertainment more than anything. But the clips I saw weren't just on MSNBC. I only mentioned them because that was the only clip I was certain I saw on that channel. All of them are a couple channels apart from our cable provider. As I ride my spin bike in the AM I have remote in hand moving between them. Typically I watch Fox and CNN the most.

Though I am concerned for your safety. This is the second time you've mentioned being accosted by anti Trump people. Are you walking around wearing a I love Trump jersey or something? :)

[Elmer]

28 minutes ago, Lihu said:

These seem pretty detailed for those willing to read them. . .https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

They seem substantial, and not just political number spouting like all the other candidates. I guess that's just the pragmatic New Yorker talking.

 

I only had time to read 2 of them. He does lay out some ideas, but no where does he indicate how he is paying for these!
He also indicates he will "Make the VA great again"- With out indicating how.
" Under a Trump Administration, all veterans eligible for VA health care can bring their veteran’s ID card to any doctor or care facility that accepts Medicare to get the care they need immediately"
Is this supposed to lead us to believe that he is going to mandate that a Private Physician is to "immediately" see a Vet?

Increase funding for job training and placement services (including incentives for companies hiring veterans), educational support and business loans.

A program like this is already in place. But once again you can bring a horse to water......

I am not a fan of allowing  MILITARY BASES AND RECRUITING CENTERS.  to carry weapons. Especially since around here most if not all the recruiting centers are in the Mall, across the hall from the Sheriffs office.
Furthermore all Military Bases have MP's.
He is calling for more prosecution, more background checks, more mental health checks and everyone open carry.
How is he paying for it?

And if he wants it to be the like the wild West, see how well that works out in NYC or less economic areas, where lay abiding citizens will be carrying!!!

[Lihu]

3 minutes ago, Elmer said:

I only had time to read 2 of them. He does lay out some ideas, but no where does he indicate how he is paying for these!
He also indicates he will "Make the VA great again"- With out indicating how.
" Under a Trump Administration, all veterans eligible for VA health care can bring their veteran’s ID card to any doctor or care facility that accepts Medicare to get the care they need immediately"
Is this supposed to lead us to believe that he is going to mandate that a Private Physician is to "immediately" see a Vet?

Increase funding for job training and placement services (including incentives for companies hiring veterans), educational support and business loans.

A program like this is already in place. But once again you can bring a horse to water......

I am not a fan of allowing  MILITARY BASES AND RECRUITING CENTERS.  to carry weapons. Especially since around here most if not all the recruiting centers are in the Mall, across the hall from the Sheriffs office.
Furthermore all Military Bases have MP's.
He is calling for more prosecution, more background checks, more mental health checks and everyone open carry.
How is he paying for it?

And if he wants it to be the like the wild West, see how well that works out in NYC or less economic areas, where lay abiding citizens will be carrying!!!

Every time someone says "How is so and so politician going to pay for it?" I think to myself "Are all the current programs absolutely necessary?"

My guess is he is going to phase out a lot of government positions and services that don't actually help people but are just pork fat expenditures. We pay for a lot of frivolous things such as "art" which should be privately funded. What bugs me is how the extreme left can pay for "art" while many families are in need of food and basic medical services? Many of these programs are started and perpetuated by career politicians. Some of them are "favors".

The government is far too large and I would guess that over 33% can be reduced or cut.

23 minutes ago, Braivo said:

If this guy was such a flash in the pan candidate why is he getting such a strong reaction from prominent individuals? Interesting. When has a Presidential candidate ever elicited this much hate even prior to becoming the nominee?

He has a lot of very important people very nervous for a reason, he wants to destroy the status quo. Look for the hate to increase when his nomination becomes inevitable.

Yes he does, and that should be his main appeal to the masses. He's on our side and not those in power otherwise known as the "Modern Nobility".