Donald Trump for president?

[mpb1472]

I am for any candidate that wants to build up are armed forces and cut corporate taxes. Trump is one that has advocated those things and more. Sure, I wish he had a little more tact and could stand to tone down the schoolyard banter but he is not dumb. I credit him for bringing up some issues that needed attention. On the other hand, I think his polarizing comments will play into the Democrats hands.

So,Hilary will win. There is a whole flock of sheep in special interest groups that will vote Democrat even if it was a scarecrow running. Not because they are more educated but because the perception still exists that they will be taken care of.

I work with many 20-30 year old people.They are all college educated professionals that work in health care. They don't pay attention to the news and know absolutely nothing about history and politics. Sadly, Facebook and other social media are the most important things going on for them. Who they vote for or if they do is a mystery but certainly not a decision made with much care of what is going on.

I just want a leader who wants to protect this country and treat us all as Americans not as separate groups with separate agendas. We have an enemy out there that wants to destroy us and many others. That should be bringing us together as one.

[saevel25]

28 minutes ago, Mr. Desmond said:

According to Nate Silverman (538.com), Trump's probability of gaining the nomination are about 2%. He is betting the process will get him eventually. Trump does not have much of a ground game, looks not to win Iowa or NH, and he won't get the superdelegates at the convention. If Rubio would get his act together, he may get establishment's blessing.

And the Clintons and the Donald are about to "get it on."

That is 2% as of right now, and will grow the longer he stays in because he's cleared some hurdles. If he gets the Primary, and let say faces Hillary he's already projected at a -6 deficit in the polling. That is twice the margin for error, so a pretty big hurdle to cover.

Cruz is basically tied with Clinton. Rubio has a +2, which is basically even.

By Silverman, Bush still has the best shot at winning the Primary due to the support he has. 

[Mr. Desmond]

9 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

That is 2% as of right now, and will grow the longer he stays in because he's cleared some hurdles. If he gets the Primary, and let say faces Hillary he's already projected at a -6 deficit in the polling. That is twice the margin for error, so a pretty big hurdle to cover.

Cruz is basically tied with Clinton. Rubio has a +2, which is basically even.

By Silverman, Bush still has the best shot at winning the Primary due to the support he has. 

I think polling and primary elections at this time of year are very different animals.

I think you mean if he wins the nomination, he has a deficit to overcome. The election is a year away and Clinton is polishing up her brand. Her polling will improve after the Dem Convention and Sanders endorses her.

I do not think you can view polls as to THE election with any credibility right now. Voters typically do not give it real attention until Labor Day 2016.

I look at it as a process -- the primary process, the convention process, and then the campaign -- mano v. womano.

We talk about Trump because he's shocking, has touched a chord, and is touched. Otherwise, we'd be yawning.

My wish? I just want someone to fix/amend ObamaCare, get the economic train running faster, and get rid of ISIS, and get out of these big footprint wars; and for Texas to join the 21st Century. Doubt if the Gov, Prez or Congress can do that in a year or are interested in the first two as to business.

The media is fixated with the Donald ... ratings.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mr. Desmond

[saevel25]

13 minutes ago, Mr. Desmond said:

I think you mean if he wins the nomination, he has a deficit to overcome. The election is a year away and Clinton is polishing up her brand. Her polling will improve after the Dem Convention and Sanders endorses her

She has some issues she's going to have to work out. I think don't think she is a lock to win. The issue is, Obama won because of the minority turn out and getting democrats to show up at the voting and getting younger people to vote. In 2012 you had the first instance of black voter turn out being higher than white voter turn out. Does Hillary draw that same turnout. If not then where does she make it up from? I could see it in the woman vote. Woman tend to turnout to vote more than men do. I don't think she's a lock to win. 

[Mr. Desmond]

43 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

She has some issues she's going to have to work out. I think don't think she is a lock to win. The issue is, Obama won because of the minority turn out and getting democrats to show up at the voting and getting younger people to vote. In 2012 you had the first instance of black voter turn out being higher than white voter turn out. Does Hillary draw that same turnout. If not then where does she make it up from? I could see it in the woman vote. Woman tend to turnout to vote more than men do. I don't think she's a lock to win. 

The Women's vote, and Bill will get the black voter out for Hillary. He was the white Barack before Barack. And I do not see the Hispanic vote going for Trump, or for any other likely GOP nominee with the party's stance on immigration and Dream Act, etc. The GOP nominee would have to spin immigration and go against the right wing conservatives to get the Hispanic vote.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mr. Desmond

[saevel25]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Desmond said:

The Women's vote, and Bill will get the black voter out for Hillary. He was the white Barack before Barack. And I do not see the Hispanic vote going for Trump, or for any other likely GOP nominee with the party's stance on immigration and Dream Act, etc. The GOP nominee would have to spin immigration and go against the right wing conservatives to get the Hispanic vote.

Even with that, it wasn't like Obama smashed Mitt. The gap isn't that large. 3.9% popular vote isn't a landslide. Obama by all accounts has been a pretty popular president with his favorable rating in the polls. 

I agree Trump will be hard pressed to beat Hillary. She's from NY, and I doubt Trump will pull that state to his side. 

If you get something like Rubio/Kasich or a Bush/Kasich then you have on one hand a guy who can pull the Hispanic vote for republicans and a guy who can probably get you Ohio. That makes Florida a tough swing state for Clinton. There are some big players in the Republican party who can pull some swing states. 

 

[Mr. Desmond]

11 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Even with that, it wasn't like Obama smashed Mitt. The gap isn't that large. 3.9% popular vote isn't a landslide. Obama by all accounts has been a pretty popular president with his favorable rating in the polls. 

I agree Trump will be hard pressed to beat Hillary. She's from NY, and I doubt Trump will pull that state to his side. 

If you get something like Rubio/Kasich or a Bush/Kasich then you have on one hand a guy who can pull the Hispanic vote for republicans and a guy who can probably get you Ohio. That makes Florida a tough swing state for Clinton. There are some big players in the Republican party who can pull some swing states. 

 

True, but 2012 was the Tea People at their height of popularity. The Pubs had not allowed Obama to pass any legislation, as the Tea Party are not people who compromise,  Boehner and Obama had communication issues and who knows what happend, so the country was stagnated, and continues that way to a certain degree.

Bush has been a huge disappointment -- an intelligent man, they say, but he comes off as very uneasy around people, and as an amateur in dealing with people and the opposition. I would probably like Bush and/or Kasich, and Kasich may be the better choice, but he gets no traction, so yes, VP is the most Kasich could get. Rubio is a brown Barack ... not ready for prime time.

Back to Donald -- I think he fizzles eventually. His staying power is amazing only because government has become so useless for the last 8 years in terms of assisting the regular Joe. Too much morality, not enough businessality, and not enough fixing of what we have. Donald is correct - we are falling behind in many ways, even before Barack. It's time for a correction, but I doubt if it will be the Donald doing the correcting.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mr. Desmond

[dkolo]

11 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Even with that, it wasn't like Obama smashed Mitt. The gap isn't that large. 3.9% popular vote isn't a landslide. Obama by all accounts has been a pretty popular president with his favorable rating in the polls. 

I agree Trump will be hard pressed to beat Hillary. She's from NY, and I doubt Trump will pull that state to his side. 

If you get something like Rubio/Kasich or a Bush/Kasich then you have on one hand a guy who can pull the Hispanic vote for republicans and a guy who can probably get you Ohio. That makes Florida a tough swing state for Clinton. There are some big players in the Republican party who can pull some swing states. 

 

I think the whole "getting someone to deliver specific states" or to deliver a specific bloc scheme has proved to be a largely overrated tactic. It's probably a better bet to get someone onto your ticket who helps shape a narrative theme and is an effective surrogate on the campaign trail.

[saevel25]

2 minutes ago, dkolo said:

I think the whole "getting someone to deliver specific states" or to deliver a specific bloc scheme has proved to be a largely overrated tactic. It's probably a better bet to get someone onto your ticket who helps shape a narrative theme and is an effective surrogate on the campaign trail.

Not sure. If you look at number of presidents born in each state. All the presidents came from 21 states. 15 of them from 2 states. I think where you are from matters in a presidential election. 

The fact that all the presidents have come from 17 states (affiliated with). Being residency, professional career, elective history. If you look at the states with the most presidents, they match up pretty well with electoral votes. 

The only 3 states that have not had presidents that have a good amount of electoral votes is Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida. 

I am kinda shocked by Florida really. 

 

[dkolo]

Just now, saevel25 said:

I am kinda shocked by Florida really. 

We all share this sentiment on a daily basis.

[acerimusdux]

56 minutes ago, Mr. Desmond said:

Back to Donald -- I think he fizzles eventually. His staying power is amazing only because government has become so useless for the last 8 years in terms of assisting the regular Joe. Too much morality, not enough businessality, and not enough fixing of what we have. Donald is correct - we are falling behind in many ways, even before Barack.

This is why, at one point, I even thought he had a realistic chance to win it all. But instead of toning down the rhetoric and becoming a more professional candidate, he seems to have gone in the other direction lately, as though he's making an effort to be an even bigger ******** than usual.

Still, the interesting thing with Donald is, part of his staying power, I think, is there's really no one else in the Republican Party effectively courting that same group of voters. A lot of his voters are the Tea Party types, people earning under $50k who are fed up with the economic situation, and fed up with both parties being bought and paid for by economic elites who don't represent working people, small businesses, entrepreneurs, etc.

I'm not sure Donald really represents those voters either; in fact his tax plan seems to be one of the worst as far as more handouts for the top 1% and making inequality even worse. But he's had the right rhetoric at times to convince some of those voters.

Part of the problem here for the Republican Party I think is, it's ultimately doubtful that the religious right candidates, Carson, Cruz, or even Rubio, will really do any better in a national election than Trump would. All are anti-climate science, anti-abortion, opposed to Planned Parenthood, opposed to gay marriage. Rubio is a little more moderate, in that for example, he at least acknowledges evolution, and doesn't support a constitutional amendment to overturn gay marriage. But he's having trouble right now getting much traction in the Republican primary polls.

I think the country has changed since 20 years ago when people like Paul Begala worried about Democrats losing elections over "God, guns, and gays".  Republicans still get good margins amongst those who attend religious services weekly, but smaller numbers are doing so.  I think too much of a hard line on these issues is going to cost Republicans votes in the general election.

And I see some voters who are otherwise conservative, who even have some admiration for Bernie Sanders, because he is at least addressing some of the economic issues. Most of these voters don't think the answer is socialism, but they do want to see these issues addressed.

So I think if there were a strong alternative to Trump, in the form of a small-government populist, who could de-emphasize the divisive social issues, while playing to traditional Republican strengths by being tough on crime and on national security, I think that would give Republicans a strong shot to win. But I just don't see that candidate in this field right now.

 

 

 

[AbsoluteTruths]

Here is a little poll for you all.

294193100-WND-GOP-Poll-12-28-15-National-w-All-Parties.pdf

[Mr. Desmond]

I've read several articles about Trump being the savior of a dying white supremist movement. The leaders of these various groups saying "Trump may not want to hear this, but..." or "of all the candidates, Trump is the best of them."

I think the all testosterone all the time speaking, twitter-verse, anti-immigration, guttural and in your face retorts, "safety" and making American great "again" braggadacio ... has made Trump a lot of fans.

Of course, the rest of us wait with baited breath asking where is the plan behind all this bluster?

Trump's campaign reminds one of Seinfeld ... a campaign about nothing at all. Just observations.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Mr. Desmond

[rkim291968]

27 minutes ago, Mr. Desmond said:

I've read several articles about Trump being the savior of a dying white supremist movement. The leaders of these various groups saying "Trump may not want to hear this, but..." or "of all the candidates, Trump is the best of them

The White Supremist groups are reporting bump in their membership  per various reports.  They cite Trump effect as the cause of sudden surge.   This is yet another clear sign that how Trump is making "America great again"   ... NOT!   All he did  so far was making GOP and America a butt of a joke  to the world.   He is making America ugly. 

[Lihu]

Over the Rose Parade!

Everyone, conservative and liberal alike booed with "Trump" then cheered when "Disgusting" showed up.

[rkim291968]

11 hours ago, Lihu said:

Over the Rose Parade!

Everyone, conservative and liberal alike booed with "Trump" then cheered when "Disgusting" showed up.

 

Here in California, Trump is universally hated.   If this thing happened in NH, SC, etc.., I wonder what would be the reaction?   More boos than cheers, I'd think. 

Trump's latest attack on Bill Clinton is hypocritical.   Trump was married and divorced multiple times (mainly caused by his infidelity).   The man knows no shame.

[Lihu]

1 hour ago, rkim291968 said:

 

Here in California, Trump is universally hated.   If this thing happened in NH, SC, etc.., I wonder what would be the reaction?   More boos than cheers, I'd think. 

Trump's latest attack on Bill Clinton is hypocritical.   Trump was married and divorced multiple times (mainly caused by his infidelity).   The man knows no shame.

I can't believe that people in other states like NH and SC are that shallow. If they think Trump represents their interests that's their choice. It's not like most CA folks are smarter or more worldly, but it's our own personal choice to think he's a self serving dolt. That being stated, the skywriting was totally well timed and hilarious. 

[boogielicious]

5 hours ago, Lihu said:

I can't believe that people in other states like NH and SC are that shallow. If they think Trump represents their interests that's their choice. It's not like most CA folks are smarter or more worldly, but it's our own personal choice to think he's a self serving dolt. That being stated, the skywriting was totally well timed and hilarious. 

Please don't equate polls and rally attendees as representing a whole state. NH people are very nice. I've found that to be the case everywhere I've gone. FWIW, I've never gone to a political rally. I have no interest. I do all my research on candidates on line or by reading actual news and position statements.