Hit it Over the Ditch or Lay up Short?

[Lihu]

31 minutes ago, vangator said:

That's going to take a near perfect shot if you try to take it past the water.  Since the layup in just 100 yards, it's a no brainer to layup.

Not a perfect shot by any means. My 3W shot zone is about 40-50 yards wide at that distance, but a roughly 202 yard forced carry with a 3W is not an issue in the summer. If I was playing now in 45F conditions no wind, I could possibly hit driver but more likely 3W. The hole is only 265 yards long slightly uphill, and likely plays to 270?

Plus, in this case being behind the bunkers looks like a semi blind shot to the green.

I really think in this case it's better to be closer to the green even if wide.

[jsgolfer]

33 minutes ago, vangator said:

That's going to take a near perfect shot if you try to take it past the water.  Since the layup in just 100 yards, it's a no brainer to layup.

If I were playing with 9wood, I would grab one of his golf balls from his cart while he wasn't looking and hit the shot to see if I could make it.  

During the last scramble I played, the guy I was riding with grabbed my last S3 and proceeded to lose it in the woods.  I hadn't ordered any more yet, so I was slightly miffed.

This has happened to me a couple of times, play a hole and my fellow competitor hits his ball OB or hits into way into the woods and they don't have another ball with them and they grab one of my golf balls and then proceeded to hit it in the same place and I'm out a Pro V1.  Slightly miffed is an understatement.

[billchao]

11 hours ago, 9wood said:

Here is an actual look at the 265 yd par 4 from the the tee box. There is a 25 foot increase in elevation between the tee and the green

 

Yea that's a no decision for me, the hole is too narrow. I'll go 8i and whatever I need for what's left.

[Fourputt]

My best measured drive today was 245 yards with roll and a slight tailwind.  I managed about the same three more times, with slight distance variances from different wind directions.  That's all the response I need to give on this topic.  Go for it isn't even in my thinking.

[9wood]

5 hours ago, vangator said:

If I were playing with 9wood, I would grab one of his golf balls from his cart while he wasn't looking and hit the shot to see if I could make it.  

 

I would allow you do that. I would like to see what you could do on that hole

[Lihu]

3 hours ago, billchao said:

Yea that's a no decision for me, the hole is too narrow. I'll go 8i and whatever I need for what's left.

 

8 hours ago, Lihu said:

Not a perfect shot by any means. My 3W shot zone is about 40-50 yards wide at that distance, but a roughly 202 yard forced carry with a 3W is not an issue in the summer. If I was playing now in 45F conditions no wind, I could possibly hit driver but more likely 3W. The hole is only 265 yards long slightly uphill, and likely plays to 270?

Plus, in this case being behind the bunkers looks like a semi blind shot to the green.

I really think in this case it's better to be closer to the green even if wide.

I would have the same gut reaction, but my shot zone analysis tells me otherwise.

Those little trees in the middle left are the only obstacle that could prevent me from making a clean shot. It's worth that small risk as I tend to pull shots more than fade them with my 3W anyway. The carry is less than 203 yards at the worst case point.

Of course, the way I played today, I would likely hit the trees even though there is only like a 5% chance of hitting them.

As I mentioned in earlier posts I would need to play the hole a few times to get a feel for it, but to be perfectly honest the hole looks a heck of a lot more daunting short than long.

[DrvFrShow]

Looking at this hole, even if I hit a knuckle ball, it isn't going to carry over 240, plus there's that elevation difference.... So 7 iron + Wedge.

[Lihu]

2 hours ago, DrvFrShow said:

Looking at this hole, even if I hit a knuckle ball, it isn't going to carry over 240, plus there's that elevation difference.... So 7 iron + Wedge.

240 puts you near the green.

[billchao]

7 hours ago, Lihu said:

Those little trees in the middle left are the only obstacle that could prevent me from making a clean shot. It's worth that small risk as I tend to pull shots more than fade them with my 3W anyway. The carry is less than 203 yards at the worst case point.

I didn't measure the actual width of the hole, but if you center your Shot Zone at the 203 from the picture, it puts the water hazard, both fairway bunkers, and the trees on the right in play. Fifty shades of black says that's a no go.

If I'm looking at this hole correctly, hitting it to that spot is the worst play off the tee. Either you try to drive the green or you lay up short of the pond, but trying to stick your ball right in the middle of that mess puts all the hazards in play.

[vangator]

19 hours ago, Lihu said:

Not a perfect shot by any means. My 3W shot zone is about 40-50 yards wide at that distance, but a roughly 202 yard forced carry with a 3W is not an issue in the summer. If I was playing now in 45F conditions no wind, I could possibly hit driver but more likely 3W. The hole is only 265 yards long slightly uphill, and likely plays to 270?

Plus, in this case being behind the bunkers looks like a semi blind shot to the green.

I really think in this case it's better to be closer to the green even if wide.

From the viewpoint of the bridge, the hole looks like you'd need to thread a needle.  Standing on the tee box may change perspective.  Being aggressive would bring birdie into play, but also double bogey.  Playing the hole may change my opinion, but right now risk / reward says layup.

18 hours ago, jsgolfer said:

This has happened to me a couple of times, play a hole and my fellow competitor hits his ball OB or hits into way into the woods and they don't have another ball with them and they grab one of my golf balls and then proceeded to hit it in the same place and I'm out a Pro V1.  Slightly miffed is an understatement.

Yea, the guy told me as he was addressing the ball that he had my last ball.  I thought he was kidding, so I didn't interrupt.  After it went deep into the crap, I noticed he had really taken it.  I told him before hand it was my last ball.  I couldn't believe it.  If I had a bunch, it wouldn't matter.

13 hours ago, 9wood said:

I would allow you do that. I would like to see what you could do on that hole

You're too easy.

[Lihu]

3 hours ago, billchao said:

I didn't measure the actual width of the hole, but if you center your Shot Zone at the 203 from the picture, it puts the water hazard, both fairway bunkers, and the trees on the right in play. Fifty shades of black says that's a no go.

If I'm looking at this hole correctly, hitting it to that spot is the worst play off the tee. Either you try to drive the green or you lay up short of the pond, but trying to stick your ball right in the middle of that mess puts all the hazards in play.

I still think longer is better because all the crap is in the front. There's only a steep uphill narrow fairway in front of the mess, and to the left and right you end up in the mess.

The narrowness that you see in the front on picture happens roughly at 170 yards between those two trees. A 3W that can carry 203 o 210 off the tee should go high enough that those are not really in play. I'd have to try it to really know, of course.

It's one of those holes that doesn't look friendly to shorter hitters, and I'm surprised there are no shorter tees.

You could probably even land more right of where I drew the ellipse.

[billchao]

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

I still think longer is better because all the crap is in the front.

In the front of what? There's nothing guarding the green, if that's what you're talking about.

1 hour ago, Lihu said:

The narrowness that you see in the front on picture happens roughly at 170 yards between those two trees. A 3W that can carry 203 o 210 off the tee should go high enough that those are not really in play. I'd have to try it to really know, of course.

The trees shouldn't be in play. It's the two bunkers and the pond you need to be looking at if you are looking at 205 landing zone.

That's why you lay up short of 170, short of the pond around 160 or so. Then you have an uphill approach of 110 or so to an unguarded green.

[Lihu]

5 minutes ago, billchao said:

In the front of what? There's nothing guarding the green, if that's what you're talking about.

The trees shouldn't be in play. It's the two bunkers and the pond you need to be looking at if you are looking at 205 landing zone.

That's why you lay up short of 170, short of the pond around 160 or so. Then you have an uphill approach of 110 or so to an unguarded green.

Front of the hole. I don't like the sloping fairway, and I have no idea where the ball will roll with your solution. I don't get enough much spin from my 7i or 6i. Mine is more comfortable to me based upon my shot zone analysis.

[pganapathy]

@9wood, I have to ask the question.  Let us assume someone has the length to be able to go for the green.  What is the situation if you overshoot the green, are off slightly to the left or slightly to the right.  Take these risks into account and then decide whether it is worth going for the green.  Let us assume you have a bad rough on both sides and an OB behind the green, then hitting a 150-175 yard and then a 100 yard shot makes a lot more sense.  Essentially do a RISK - REWARD analysis and then decide

[vangator]

This fairway is a siren call.  You hear, "hit your driver, hit your 3W".  Then you're dashed on the rocks.

[9wood]

23 minutes ago, vangator said:

This fairway is a siren call.  You hear, "hit your driver, hit your 3W".  Then you're dashed on the rocks.

I visualize playing this hole with someone, and he goes and pulls out his 460 cc driver, and I say to him, go ahead and show me how to thread that needle.

[DrvFrShow]

1 hour ago, 9wood said:

I visualize playing this hole with someone, and he goes and pulls out his 460 cc driver, and I say to him, go ahead and show me how to thread that needle.

I'll tell him "what ever you do, don't hit it into the water on the left."

[vangator]

Or they hit a great shot that threads the needle and gets buried in the face of one of the bunkers.