What Would a 20.1 (see post #95) Index Shoot at a Local U.S. Open Qualifier Site?

[iacas]

12 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

Btw, here is a snapshot of my buddies scores. Granted, he hasn't hit a full 20 rounds yet, and he does pick up instead of taking an 8 or whatever he is allowed, so his index probably a bit lower than it should be. 

So, not that I'm changing my position or anything (a 40 differential is still a HUGE leap), but what would you estimate his index would actually be if he played full Rules of Golf, proper handicapping procedures, etc.? 22? 25?

[GolfLug]

12 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

Just to update you guys, the member guest tournament starts tomorrow and man they got the greens rolling fast. When I get back from my trip in 2 weeks I am going to get this round on the books so we can see what the true test is. 

Btw, here is a snapshot of my buddies scores. Granted, he hasn't hit a full 20 rounds yet, and he does pick up instead of taking an 8 or whatever he is allowed, so his index probably a bit lower than it should be. 

Any idea if the over hundred scores with high slopes course yardages are? I am assuming they are not all your home course.

[Aflighter]

A 20 hcp I  would think wouldnt shoot worse than 110 but it does depend on the course.

[JonMA1]

On 5/20/2017 at 8:45 AM, JonMA1 said:

If I get a chance this year - meaning no one else is on the course - I might try playing from the tips on my home course. It's just under 6700 yards but has a rating and slope of 73/138. Not the same, I know. But a closer indication than what I normally play.

I played 9 holes from these tees this morning and shot a 53. Distance didn't cost as many strokes as I thought it would. Shanking a 9 iron from the fairway at 120 yards out, for example, has nothing to do with distance or difficulty.

It was fun because I expected much worse (played the 2nd nine from the middle tees and did do worse). I'm trending at 21.1 but am probably playing above 25 right now.

On another day, I could easily fail to break 125.

Off topic, but as far as bad golfers playing slow from too far back - I walked it in under 1:40.

[kpaulhus]

On 5/26/2017 at 1:33 AM, iacas said:

So, not that I'm changing my position or anything (a 40 differential is still a HUGE leap), but what would you estimate his index would actually be if he played full Rules of Golf, proper handicapping procedures, etc.? 22? 25?

I would assume he is a 26/27 index likely.

On 5/26/2017 at 1:55 AM, GolfLug said:

Any idea if the over hundred scores with high slopes course yardages are? I am assuming they are not all your home course.

They were from less than 6300 yards as I was with him both times. 

[iacas]

7 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

I would assume he is a 26/27 index likely.

 That's a significant difference.

[Golfingdad]

On 5/25/2017 at 8:55 AM, GolfLug said:

Any idea if the over hundred scores with high slopes course yardages are? I am assuming they are not all your home course.

 

7 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

I would assume he is a 26/27 index likely.

They were from less than 6300 yards as I was with him both times. 

That doesn't make any sense.  I've never heard of a course that has a rating over 72 (or 74!!!) and plays under 6300 yards.  I'm not that well traveled, though, so maybe they do exist?

Sounds to me like in addition to your buddy making up his own esc sometime that he also isn't even posting his rounds correctly.  Unless you (or I) are misunderstanding @GolfLugs question.

EDIT:  At second glance, he's definitely not posting correctly because there are 13 different rating/slope combos on that list of 14 rounds (which is unusual in itself) and yet they are all listed as "home" rounds.

Edited May 29, 2017 by Golfingdad

[Denny Bang Bang]

25 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

 

That doesn't make any sense.  I've never heard of a course that has a rating over 72 (or 74!!!) and plays under 6300 yards.  I'm not that well traveled, though, so maybe they do exist?

Check out the tees and ratings at some Donald Ross courses.  Many of them are not necessarily that long, but still play pretty tough.  E.g. Country Club of Rochester (not a long course), or Oak Hill CC (shorter tees still play tough)

[iacas]

25 minutes ago, Denny Bang Bang said:

Check out the tees and ratings at some Donald Ross courses.  Many of them are not necessarily that long, but still play pretty tough.  E.g. Country Club of Rochester (not a long course), or Oak Hill CC (shorter tees still play tough)

CC of R (https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=8714):
6206 "Blue" or "Back" tees, 70.6/126
6584 "Black" or "Championship" tees, 72.7/128

Oak Hill CC (https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=8698):
6519 "White" tees, 71.1/138

Facts don't seem to agree.

And I can add this… ~90% of a course's rating is from the yardage. It's gonna be really, really difficult to get a 74+ rating at 6300 yards.

P.S. Oakmont's Blue tees (about 6450 yards) are some of the stiffest I know off-hand and they're just 73.3/136: https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=13012 .

[Denny Bang Bang]

45 minutes ago, iacas said:

CC of R (https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=8714):
6206 "Blue" or "Back" tees, 70.6/126
6584 "Black" or "Championship" tees, 72.7/128

Oak Hill CC (https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=8698):
6519 "White" tees, 71.1/138

Facts don't seem to agree.

And I can add this… ~90% of a course's rating is from the yardage. It's gonna be really, really difficult to get a 74+ rating at 6300 yards.

P.S. Oakmont's Blue tees (about 6450 yards) are some of the stiffest I know off-hand and they're just 73.3/136: https://ncrdb.usga.org/NCRDB/courseTeeInfo.aspx?CourseID=13012 .

I was thinking of 72 (not 74).  My recollection was they had tees about 6,300-6,400 that were about a 72 rating.  Obviously my memory didn't serve me very well.

[GolfLug]

 

11 hours ago, kpaulhus said:

I would assume he is a 26/27 index likely.

They were from less than 6300 yards as I was with him both times. 

 

3 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

 

That doesn't make any sense.  I've never heard of a course that has a rating over 72 (or 74!!!) and plays under 6300 yards.  I'm not that well traveled, though, so maybe they do exist?

Sounds to me like in addition to your buddy making up his own esc sometime that he also isn't even posting his rounds correctly.  Unless you (or I) are misunderstanding @GolfLugs question.

EDIT:  At second glance, he's definitely not posting correctly because there are 13 different rating/slope combos on that list of 14 rounds (which is unusual in itself) and yet they are all listed as "home" rounds.

Yeah, it is sounding more and more likely that he will shoot a really high number if y'all planning to play from back tees. 

 

Also still think he will throw a 10+ on a few holes. 

[Hatchman]

On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 2:37 PM, GolfLug said:

I think it is should be nominated for the dumbest tricked up hole in all of Virginia (Looks like #6 at Colonial Heritage). I think would easily place in the top 5. Lot of other silly holes on the course in the guise of 'difficulty'.

I don't think courses like that host qualifiers..

Yes, agree.  #6 and others are something else.  College competitions play there.   

[OrangeHog]

On 5/16/2017 at 4:25 PM, kpaulhus said:

So with the recent threads about the US Open Local qualifying, and my own personal experience in a USGA qualifying round, my group text full of golfers is buzzing every day. Guys with + handicaps are not breaking 80, so for anyone who is sane that just magnifies how hard it really is.

I posted about the "pro" who shot 127. My friend who is a 20.1 index says he could break 127 on that course. He is clearly delusional because he doesn't understand how hard these courses are set up. The length is daunting. The rough is literally rough. He thinks he can manage his game to a sub 126 round.

Of course all of the trash talk as stemmed into a bet, one foot on the back of the furthest tee box (7000 yards so he still has a 200-400 yard advantage). In June or July when our rough is the thickets. Has to walk. No laser.

Its quite funny but he just doesn't understand. What are your thoughts?

Are you referring to our mutual buddy?  Because, if you are, I'd love to be there to witness that round of golf.  No chance he breaks 127 from the tips in Qualifier conditions.

[iacas]

33 minutes ago, OrangeHog said:

No chance he breaks 127 from the tips in Qualifier conditions.

I'm still befuddled as to why people think a local qualifier is set up all that differently from the normal day-to-day play of a course.

Except for marking areas of GUR with white paint, the course is basically the same as it always is. There are a lot of local qualifiers each year.

Were the guy a 20.1 index as the title and OPs said, he'd break 127 almost every time. If he's a 27 as we now know to be closer to the truth (while still being a guess), he should still do it more often than not, but  I wouldn't bet on it without slightly favorable odds.

[OrangeHog]

26 minutes ago, iacas said:

I'm still befuddled as to why people think a local qualifier is set up all that differently from the normal day-to-day play of a course.

Except for marking areas of GUR with white paint, the course is basically the same as it always is. There are a lot of local qualifiers each year.

Were the guy a 20.1 index as the title and OPs said, he'd break 127 almost every time. If he's a 27 as we now know to be closer to the truth (while still being a guess), he should still do it more often than not, but  I wouldn't bet on it without slightly favorable odds.

I've played the course where the Arkansas qualifier was played and they absolutely change conditions for the qualifier - grow up the rough, speed up the greens, etc.  The layout is the same but longer rough and faster greens at that course will change the dynamics a bit.  Obviously the longer yardage playing from the tips has an impact, as well.

At work I sit right next to this 20 handicapper that is the subject of discussion and I think Kyle is right in saying he's more along the lines of a 25(ish) handicap.  He doesn't practice much and plays maybe once a week.  From 6000-6300 yards he'll shoot in the mid-90's on average, maybe higher if he gets loose with his swing.  Back him up to 7000+ yards with thicker rough and faster than average greens and he easily loses at least a stroke per hole, if not more.

Edited May 30, 2017 by OrangeHog

[iacas]

Just now, OrangeHog said:

I've played the course where the Arkansas qualifier was played and they absolutely change conditions for the qualifier - grow up the rough, speed up the greens, etc.

Which Arkansas qualifier?

I've been to several. The conditions are basically the same, as others noted in this very topic, as they are day to day.

Just now, OrangeHog said:

At work I sit right next to this 20 handicapper that is the subject of discussion and I think Kyle is right in saying he's more along the lines of a 25(ish) handicap.  He doesn't practice much and plays maybe once a week.  From 6000-6300 yards he'll shoot in the mid-90's on average, maybe higher if he gets loose with his swing.  Back him up to 7000+ yards with thicker rough and faster than average greens and he easily loses at least a stroke per hole, if not more.

Yeah, well, the math on actual 20.1 index says what it says: he'd break 127 almost every time out. 127 is a 40 differential or higher.

[MacDutch]

On 30-5-2017 at 5:53 PM, iacas said:

127 is a 40 differential or higher.

No, that is incorrect. The 127 we are chatting about is a strokeplay score. A 20 capper is likely to have a couple of blowup holes, so the 127 could also be (much) lower then a 40 differential.

And it's not only a question of math. We were trying to get the guy in the same mood as when playing a qualifier. Tension is higher, he will break down because of his lack of experience and lack of technique to get out of trouble.

Edited June 1, 2017 by MacDutch

[JonMA1]

17 minutes ago, MacDutch said:

And it's not only a question of math. We were trying to get the guy in the same mood as when playing a qualifier. Tension is higher, he will break down because of his lack of experience and lack of technique to get out of trouble.

Lack of experience or poor judgement are not always reasons for high scores. His strategy won't necessarily be to shoot the lowest score. He might approach this knowing he can make a lot of misses and still be below the target. Maybe he keeps his head on straight and manages those misses.

It's hard to know whether someone who is less skilled (or at any level, for that matter) will play better or worse when something is on the line. In some ways, there is less pressure on us because poor play is expected. Sometimes, our focus may even improve. It's really hard to know.

I believe that higher cappers have a wider range between high and low scores than do better players. It will probably come down to which game he brings to the course that day.