NCAA Football 2019

[djake]

8 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

You also have to look at how many games a team is an underdog versus the favorite. If the SEC was favorite for most of their games and ended up winning that amount, then is it really impressive? 

To get more schools to play power 5 teams, I would like to see the conferences agree on an 8 conference game schedule, and a requirement of only allowing one game being from a non power 5 school. 

I will have to add that while I am a die hard B1G fan I did enjoy seeing Bama beat Michigan.  I do not care for Harbaugh at all.  Plus I have a real hard time pulling for Bucky Badger - other then that.

Doesn't the B1G play 9 conference games and the SEC play 8?  If so I would prefer that all of the Power 5 conferences play 9 with 3 non conference games.  

As far as non conference play it would be nice to see all P5 teams play 1 non conference against another P5 and 2 against Mid Majors.  Playing a game against the FCS has little value as there is such a wide discrepancy in that division.  Now if a P5 team is dumb enough to schedule NDSU then yes you deserve to get beat.

I really feel there is a lot of parity in the P5 conferences and that there is not that large of a difference between any of them. 

FYI @saevel25 look out for PSU next year, they will be the team to beat in the B1G East.

[saevel25]

1 minute ago, djake said:

Playing a game against the FCS has little value as there is such a wide discrepancy in that division.  Now if a P5 team is dumb enough to schedule NDSU then yes you deserve to get beat.

It's nice for the FCS school who gets a big check. 

3 minutes ago, djake said:

FYI @saevel25 look out for PSU next year, they will be the team to beat in the B1G East.

They should be good. They need to figure out their offense. They can't rely on just being a running team only. If a team wants to stop the run they usually can. Passing tends to travel better than running. They got some nice pieces. 

[Vinsk]

25 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

You also have to look at how many games a team is an underdog versus the favorite. If the SEC was favorite for most of their games and ended up winning

That’s pushing it a bit buddy. There’s a difference between beating cupcakes and being the favorite. Winning games where you were the favorite ( which is just numbers that only offer a hypothesis) is still impressive if you win most. 
 

Clemson was the favorite against OSU. And it was an impressive victory despite the chaos.

[Vinsk]

24 minutes ago, djake said:

FYI @saevel25 look out for PSU next year, they will be the team to beat in the B1G East.

Well...for everyone except OSU. OSU coming back strong. They’ll whip PSU without any trouble. 

[djake]

3 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well...for everyone except OSU. OSU coming back strong. They’ll whip PSU without any trouble. 

PSU was a very young team this season and they recruit on a very high level with tOSU.  The game is in Happy Valley as well in 2020.  

Not taking anything away from tOSU at all but I really feel PSU will beat them next season.  No matter what it will be an excellent game most likely coming down to the last possession

[klineka]

23 minutes ago, djake said:

PSU was a very young team this season and they recruit on a very high level with tOSU. 

Not really. From the 2016 season onwards through the 2020 recruiting season, OSU signed 14 five star recruits, Penn State signed 7. OSU signed 74 four star recruits, Penn State signed 58. 

I wouldn't consider a school that has signed half as many 5 star recruits and 3/4ths as many 4 star recruits to be on the same level as OSU.

23 minutes ago, djake said:

Not taking anything away from tOSU at all but I really feel PSU will beat them next season.  No matter what it will be an excellent game most likely coming down to the last possession

What makes you think so? Back up your claim with some facts.

Also, @Vinsk must be sick or something, that's the most positive thing I've ever heard him say about OSU 

3 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well...for everyone except OSU. OSU coming back strong. They’ll whip PSU without any trouble. 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by klineka

[djake]

21 minutes ago, klineka said:

Not really. From the 2016 season onwards through the 2020 recruiting season, OSU signed 14 five star recruits, Penn State signed 7. OSU signed 74 four star recruits, Penn State signed 58. 

I wouldn't consider a school that has signed half as many 5 star recruits and 3/4ths as many 4 star recruits to be on the same level as OSU.

What makes you think so? Back up your claim with some facts.

Stars stars stars - so are you one of the "Star Chasers" for recruiting?  

Based on 24/7 Recruiting site and they are using a composite for the average with the composite being weighted between 24/7, Rivals & the pathetic ESPN rankings here are the findings they show.

2018  average composite score tOSU 94.29 & PSU 91.70 - both were clearly #1 & #2 in the B1G that year.

2019 average composite score tOSU 91.87 & PSU 91.01 - both were top 3 in the B1G

2020 way to early average composite score tOSU 91.82 & PSU 89.49 - mind you this is way to early but it shows that both are bringing in strong recruits again.

Composite score to me is the best indicator because is shows the average of the class from top to bottom and takes away from total score which can be skewed due to one team pulling in the max 25 for the year vs another team pulling in 21.

Star ratings really throw things off, the difference between a 5 Start and a high 4 Star can be virtually nothing when based on scoring but just looking at Stars it can look like they are so far apart.

So based on just this quick look down both teams are recruiting at an Elite level with almost no indiscernible difference.  

Thus, the real question is which coaching staff will get the most out of their recruits.  It is to early to see if Day and staff will keep doing what they were but based on past performance and since the bulk of the staff stayed in place I would not anticipate a drop down in coaching from tOSU.  PSU just hired a new O.C and he is a dandy of a coach, one of the best in the Nation in fact and thus with the athletes on staff they have I would anticipate an uptick in offensive production from PSU in 2020 and beyond.  Kirk Ciarrocca (KC) average roughly 35 points per game with the talent the Gophers had in 2019.  PSU has more overall talent then the Gophers, KC will do amazing things with PSU.

I would anticipate PSU running the RPO between 40 & 45% of all plays in 2020 under KC and it is a thing of beauty in his hands.  tOSU defensively will be seriously challenge with this offense.  Just ask PSU and Auburn about it when they faced the Gophers.  The player quotes are there for the finding..  

So, if you want we can beat down the recruiting really deep - but I believe the numbers show both of these teams are recruiting at an Elite level and have Elite talent.

tOSU playing in Happy Valley next year will get beat by PSU.  it will be a fantastic game played by two very well coached teams filled with a lot of talent.

[klineka]

15 minutes ago, djake said:

Stars stars stars - so are you one of the "Star Chasers" for recruiting?  

Based on 24/7 Recruiting site and they are using a composite for the average with the composite being weighted between 24/7, Rivals & the pathetic ESPN rankings here are the findings they show.

2018  average composite score tOSU 94.29 & PSU 91.70 - both were clearly #1 & #2 in the B1G that year.

2019 average composite score tOSU 91.87 & PSU 91.01 - both were top 3 in the B1G

2020 way to early average composite score tOSU 91.82 & PSU 89.49 - mind you this is way to early but it shows that both are bringing in strong recruits again.

Composite score to me is the best indicator because is shows the average of the class from top to bottom and takes away from total score which can be skewed due to one team pulling in the max 25 for the year vs another team pulling in 21.

Star ratings really throw things off, the difference between a 5 Start and a high 4 Star can be virtually nothing when based on scoring but just looking at Stars it can look like they are so far apart.

So based on just this quick look down both teams are recruiting at an Elite level with almost no indiscernible difference.  

Thus, the real question is which coaching staff will get the most out of their recruits.  It is to early to see if Day and staff will keep doing what they were but based on past performance and since the bulk of the staff stayed in place I would not anticipate a drop down in coaching from tOSU.  PSU just hired a new O.C and he is a dandy of a coach, one of the best in the Nation in fact and thus with the athletes on staff they have I would anticipate an uptick in offensive production from PSU in 2020 and beyond.  Kirk Ciarrocca (KC) average roughly 35 points per game with the talent the Gophers had in 2019.  PSU has more overall talent then the Gophers, KC will do amazing things with PSU.

I would anticipate PSU running the RPO between 40 & 45% of all plays in 2020 under KC and it is a thing of beauty in his hands.  tOSU defensively will be seriously challenge with this offense.  Just ask PSU and Auburn about it when they faced the Gophers.  The player quotes are there for the finding..  

So, if you want we can beat down the recruiting really deep - but I believe the numbers show both of these teams are recruiting at an Elite level and have Elite talent.

tOSU playing in Happy Valley next year will get beat by PSU.  it will be a fantastic game played by two very well coached teams filled with a lot of talent.

Valid points about the composite rankings, that makes it seem more level, although a valid question would be if the recruiting has been that close over the past few seasons, why hasn't Penn State beat OSU more often? This next fact doesn't mean much for the outcome of next season, but since Urban Meyer took over at OSU, Penn State has only one win in the last 8 seasons against OSU.

So let's dive in a little more:

• OSU has had a higher composite score for recruiting every year you mentioned (albeit very small margins)
• OSU has a returning Heisman finalist at QB who will start the year as one of the Heisman favorites
• OSU is returning 3 starting offensive lineman including an All-American guard (Wyatt Davis)
• OSU has a couple defensive starters returning including Shaun Wade and multiple starting linebackers
• You aren't anticipating any drop in performance by OSU's coaches
• Penn State's passing was dreadful last season (40 spots worse than OSU's despite OSU playing a tougher overall schedule)
• Penn State's leading receiver (in receiving yards) declared for the NFL draft
• OSU's leading receiver (in receiving yards) will be back next year
• Penn State's rushing offense was ok at best (31 spots worse than OSU)
  • Penn State's leading rusher only rushed for 100 more yards on the season than OSU's backup

So you honestly think that a team with an average quarterback, who lost their #1 receiver and that ranked 78th in pass defense, (3rd to last in the Big Ten) is going to beat a team who is returning arguably the best QB in college football, returning their #1 receiver AND 3 starting offensive lineman ??

I'm not seeing any stats or facts that point to Penn State beating OSU next year. 

[ncates00]

1 hour ago, djake said:

Stars stars stars - so are you one of the "Star Chasers" for recruiting?  

Based on 24/7 Recruiting site and they are using a composite for the average with the composite being weighted between 24/7, Rivals & the pathetic ESPN rankings here are the findings they show.

2018  average composite score tOSU 94.29 & PSU 91.70 - both were clearly #1 & #2 in the B1G that year.

2019 average composite score tOSU 91.87 & PSU 91.01 - both were top 3 in the B1G

2020 way to early average composite score tOSU 91.82 & PSU 89.49 - mind you this is way to early but it shows that both are bringing in strong recruits again.

Composite score to me is the best indicator because is shows the average of the class from top to bottom and takes away from total score which can be skewed due to one team pulling in the max 25 for the year vs another team pulling in 21.

Star ratings really throw things off, the difference between a 5 Start and a high 4 Star can be virtually nothing when based on scoring but just looking at Stars it can look like they are so far apart.

So based on just this quick look down both teams are recruiting at an Elite level with almost no indiscernible difference.  

Thus, the real question is which coaching staff will get the most out of their recruits.  It is to early to see if Day and staff will keep doing what they were but based on past performance and since the bulk of the staff stayed in place I would not anticipate a drop down in coaching from tOSU.  PSU just hired a new O.C and he is a dandy of a coach, one of the best in the Nation in fact and thus with the athletes on staff they have I would anticipate an uptick in offensive production from PSU in 2020 and beyond.  Kirk Ciarrocca (KC) average roughly 35 points per game with the talent the Gophers had in 2019.  PSU has more overall talent then the Gophers, KC will do amazing things with PSU.

I would anticipate PSU running the RPO between 40 & 45% of all plays in 2020 under KC and it is a thing of beauty in his hands.  tOSU defensively will be seriously challenge with this offense.  Just ask PSU and Auburn about it when they faced the Gophers.  The player quotes are there for the finding..  

So, if you want we can beat down the recruiting really deep - but I believe the numbers show both of these teams are recruiting at an Elite level and have Elite talent.

tOSU playing in Happy Valley next year will get beat by PSU.  it will be a fantastic game played by two very well coached teams filled with a lot of talent.

PSU lost to flippin' UK last year!  I know the difference a year can make (here, I guess 2), but c'mon.  OSU is the real deal, but that's about it.

[djake]

41 minutes ago, klineka said:

Valid points about the composite rankings, that makes it seem more level, although a valid question would be if the recruiting has been that close over the past few seasons, why hasn't Penn State beat OSU more often? This next fact doesn't mean much for the outcome of next season, but since Urban Meyer took over at OSU, Penn State has only one win in the last 8 seasons against OSU.

So let's dive in a little more:

• OSU has had a higher composite score for recruiting every year you mentioned (albeit very small margins)
• OSU has a returning Heisman finalist at QB who will start the year as one of the Heisman favorites
• OSU is returning 3 starting offensive lineman including an All-American guard (Wyatt Davis)
• OSU has a couple defensive starters returning including Shaun Wade and multiple starting linebackers
• You aren't anticipating any drop in performance by OSU's coaches
• Penn State's passing was dreadful last season (40 spots worse than OSU's despite OSU playing a tougher overall schedule)
• Penn State's leading receiver (in receiving yards) declared for the NFL draft
• OSU's leading receiver (in receiving yards) will be back next year
• Penn State's rushing offense was ok at best (31 spots worse than OSU)
  • Penn State's leading rusher only rushed for 100 more yards on the season than OSU's backup

So you honestly think that a team with an average quarterback, who lost their #1 receiver and that ranked 78th in pass defense, (3rd to last in the Big Ten) is going to beat a team who is returning arguably the best QB in college football, returning their #1 receiver AND 3 starting offensive lineman ??

I'm not seeing any stats or facts that point to Penn State beating OSU next year. 

Yes a rabid tOSU fan 🙂 

Uffda did I bite into this one.  Realize I am not a rabid PSU fan but I am an rabid Golden Gopher fan so here is my best off of the cuff response.

The recruiting is in favor of tOSU but is nominal

Both teams return a lot, PSU I believe was even a younger team then tOSU in 2019, I can look that up but will need time. 

tOSU is losing more on Defense then PSU

tOSU should not have a drop in coaching - PSU is going up in coaching.  See addition of Kirk Ciarrocca (KC) as their new Offensive Coordinator, he is amazing!  PSU's offense will show dramatic improvement in 2020

PSU will run one of the best RPOs in country next year.  Now the RPO is not always what announcers state it is when a game is ongoing.  It is a very difficult offense to defend when it is run correctly.  With (KC) at the helm and the talent that PSU ahs returning tOSU will have their hands full.

Yes PSU is losing their #1 producing WR but they have a lot of returning talent with size and speed at WR so the drop may not even be felt.  Yet players have to play

Urban Meyer is gone, so it is up to Day to keep up beating PSU.  I like Franklin over Day so far, Franklin was the young and up and coming coach going against Urban who was/is one of the best in the game.  Now the tables have turned and the coaching favors PSU by an edge.

The game is in Happy Valley and that cannot be taken lightly, that is as difficult of a place to into and win as Columbus is.

So, yes it will be considered an upset but I am sticking with PSU over tOSU in one heck of a football game.

The new O.C for PSU and Franklin's experience will make the difference.

53 minutes ago, klineka said:

Valid points about the composite rankings, that makes it seem more level, although a valid question would be if the recruiting has been that close over the past few seasons, why hasn't Penn State beat OSU more often? This next fact doesn't mean much for the outcome of next season, but since Urban Meyer took over at OSU, Penn State has only one win in the last 8 seasons against OSU.

So let's dive in a little more:

• OSU has had a higher composite score for recruiting every year you mentioned (albeit very small margins)
• OSU has a returning Heisman finalist at QB who will start the year as one of the Heisman favorites
• OSU is returning 3 starting offensive lineman including an All-American guard (Wyatt Davis)
• OSU has a couple defensive starters returning including Shaun Wade and multiple starting linebackers
• You aren't anticipating any drop in performance by OSU's coaches
• Penn State's passing was dreadful last season (40 spots worse than OSU's despite OSU playing a tougher overall schedule)
• Penn State's leading receiver (in receiving yards) declared for the NFL draft
• OSU's leading receiver (in receiving yards) will be back next year
• Penn State's rushing offense was ok at best (31 spots worse than OSU)
  • Penn State's leading rusher only rushed for 100 more yards on the season than OSU's backup

So you honestly think that a team with an average quarterback, who lost their #1 receiver and that ranked 78th in pass defense, (3rd to last in the Big Ten) is going to beat a team who is returning arguably the best QB in college football, returning their #1 receiver AND 3 starting offensive lineman ??

I'm not seeing any stats or facts that point to Penn State beating OSU next year. 

And oh by the way

the best Offensive Line in the Nation next year will be in Minnesota - HANDS DOWN!! 

[klineka]

1 hour ago, djake said:

tOSU is losing more on Defense then PSU

OSU's defense was SIGNIFICANTLY better than PSU's last year, so even a decent regression by OSU's defense would still rank likely rank them ahead of Penn State on defense and Penn State is losing their 2nd and 3rd leading tacklers from last season so it's unlikely that there will be substantial (20+ spot) improvement in the rankings for Penn State defense next year. 

1 hour ago, djake said:

PSU's offense will show dramatic improvement in 2020

And OSU's offense will likely remain elite (which for this discussion I'm defining as top 10 in total offense yards per game) Think about it this way, if Penn State's total offense (yards per game) increased by 30 spots in the rankings, averaged 10 more points per game, and OSU's yards per game decreased by 10 spots, OSU would still rank 10 spots ahead and still have averaged more points per game than Penn State last season DESPITE OSU playing a tougher schedule last season. That's how far apart their offenses were as a whole last season, and I see absolutely nothing, and you've provided absolutely nothing, that indicates that Penn State will have a better offense than OSU next season.

1 hour ago, djake said:

PSU will run one of the best RPOs in country next year.  Now the RPO is not always what announcers state it is when a game is ongoing.  It is a very difficult offense to defend when it is run correctly.  With (KC) at the helm and the talent that PSU ahs returning tOSU will have their hands full.

Do you know what else is difficult to defend? One of the best (if not the best) quarterbacks in the nation behind a very experienced offensive line throwing to two very talented and extremely athletic receivers. 

1 hour ago, djake said:

Yes PSU is losing their #1 producing WR but they have a lot of returning talent with size and speed at WR so the drop may not even be felt.  Yet players have to play

but Penn State will still be extremely inexperienced, returning wide receivers caught 5 touchdown passes last year for Penn State (all by Jahan Dotson) and only 12 TD passes total to returning players. (Freiermuth caught 7) For reference Chris Olave caught 12 TDs alone for OSU, and even Garrett Wilson, a freshman, caught 5 TDs last year. 

Size and speed? OSU's top returning corner (who was the 6th ranked CB for NFL draft prospects) has 2 inches and 20 lbs over Penn State's best producing receiver that's returning.

Give me Shaun Wade against an inexperienced Penn State receiver trying to catch a pass from a QB that completed under 60% of his passes last year I'm betting Shaun Wade wins that battle way more often than not.

1 hour ago, djake said:

Urban Meyer is gone, so it is up to Day to keep up beating PSU.  I like Franklin over Day so far, Franklin was the young and up and coming coach going against Urban who was/is one of the best in the game.  Now the tables have turned and the coaching favors PSU by an edge.

Other than longevity, I don't know what you're seeing that puts Franklin ahead of Ryan Day. Ryan Day has made it further in terms of the rankings and playoffs in one season as a head coach than James Franklin has in 6 years at Penn State. And spare me the "Well those are Urban's recruits" blah blah blah because weren't OSU's and Penn State's recruiting stats very similar in the years leading up to this past season? In 2018 Penn State went 9-4 under Franklin. That's BAD. Ohio State has only lost 4 or more games one time in the last 11 years. Penn State has lost 4 or more games in 50% of the 6 years that Franklin has been their coach. In 4 out of Franklin's 6 seasons, or 66% of the time, Penn State has lost 3 or more games. I would bet A LOT of money that if Ryan Day stays at OSU for 6 seasons, he won't come close to losing 3+ games in more than 2 seasons (if that). 

 

I think you are drastically underestimating how good OSU will be next season and drastically overestimating Penn State's offense. Penn State is still going to be very inexperienced on offense and I don't think (nor are there any facts to show) that Penn State will be able to keep up with OSU on offense next season, nor do I think Penn State's defense will be able to stop OSU's offense (which will very likely remain one of the top offenses in the country next season)

Edited January 7, 2020 by klineka

[Vinsk]

13 hours ago, klineka said:

I think you are drastically underestimating how good OSU will be next season and drastically overestimating Penn State's offense.

This. It’s actually just that simple. 

[Vinsk]

[dennyjones]

I see it!

[boogielicious]

19 minutes ago, dennyjones said:

I see it!

Meeza sees it. 

[Vinsk]

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I buy it, 🤣

[boogielicious]

20 hours ago, Vinsk said:

I actually saw Eddie Munster at some event in Boston in 1990. I think he was selling memorabilia to raise money for his attorney fees after a drug bust. Creepy.