NCAA Football 2019

[saevel25]

A video from Joel Klatt. I would never claim him to be a OSU fanboy. He's one of the most honest, factual, and critical NCAA football analysts. 

 

[Vinsk]

1 hour ago, saevel25 said:

A video from Joel Klatt. I would never claim him to be a OSU fanboy. He's one of the most honest, factual, and critical NCAA football analysts. 

 

I like it. I don’t agree that Cincinnati literally squeaking by ECU is a boost to OSU. Cincinnati absolutely should’ve dropped a spot at least for that awful performance against an unranked, losing season team. I agree with his comments on Clemson and the ACC. Or did this video come before the Cincinnati game? Anyway, I hope Tua is able to play the LSU/Alabama game but I don’t see how he’ll be in full form. I’ll have a better feel for OSU if they dominate PSU. Michigan on the upswing but I’m not convinced with them yet. Looks to be a great playoff series and NC for sure.

[Bucki1968]

College football is about recruiting. It's actually the same here in Florida for high school football. As long as you are in the top 5 recruiting classes, you will be one of the 4 or 5 teams that are at the top every year. Add in a decent coaching staff and your gonna be top 5 every year.  Actually the gap between talent has increased over the past few years instead of bringing teams closer together. I worked for a coach years ago who said to me "it ain't about the X's and O's, it's about the Jimmies and Joe's". He was absolutely right. This year might even be more significant with the level of talent on the top teams. I love football. But (at least here in Florida) high school numbers are down and attendance at college games has fallen off. I'm worried about the future of my favorite sport. 

[Vinsk]

10 minutes ago, Bucki1968 said:

College football is about recruiting. It's actually the same here in Florida for high school football. As long as you are in the top 5 recruiting classes, you will be one of the 4 or 5 teams that are at the top every year. Add in a decent coaching staff and your gonna be top 5 every year.  Actually the gap between talent has increased over the past few years instead of bringing teams closer together. I worked for a coach years ago who said to me "it ain't about the X's and O's, it's about the Jimmies and Joe's". He was absolutely right. This year might even be more significant with the level of talent on the top teams. I love football. But (at least here in Florida) high school numbers are down and attendance at college games has fallen off. I'm worried about the future of my favorite sport. 

Definitely a different atmosphere from say 15-20 years ago, maybe even less. All the press regarding TBI and the idea of paying college athletes for their ‘likability’ have/will have quite an effect on the game I believe. Recruitment is a mess. It seems like an insurmountable problem for any team not in the already established ‘elite programs’ to gain anyone if they follow the rules. It’s become more of a ‘ how do we not get caught’ game than anything.
 

Hell people are being busted just for cheating to get their unknown  kids in to a university. But try to get a high school star recruit to choose one university over another without violating any rules? 

[iacas]

@Vinsk, man, you seem to be getting your butt handed to you here. 🙂

Love ya man, but 10 years ago, 5 years ago, even last year really doesn't matter in college football.

[Vinsk]

5 minutes ago, iacas said:

@Vinsk, man, you seem to be getting your butt handed to you here. 🙂

Love ya man, but 10 years ago, 5 years ago, even last year really doesn't matter in college football.

You, the others are missing the point. You can’t just ignore a teams recent history especially when the team is for the most part carried over from last season. This is how rankings are done ( idea, not official) at the start of the season. OSU was the talk last season and the season before that and each time they laid an egg. Despite losing to an unranked team with a losing season they were still in the talks of the play offs. This would never happen to OU. OU has all but been dismissed due to losing to a 5-2 team. Cincinnati literally squeaked by a miserable ECU team yet fell zero spots. Again, a Big12 team would’ve been ranked.

@saevel25 loves his numbers but fails to see they are just that. His numbers show NW to be high ranked defensive team. Really? And how do you suppose this miserable, unranked team has such a ranking? Because they’ve played nobody. Zero. But @saevel25 and others just look at the numbers. OSU has played one team with any strength. Wisconsin. But he just looks at numbers and says...hey....Cincinnati is a beast of a team. Of course they are, they’ve only played pure chumps and easily run up their stats when they’re playing 5A high school level teams. They played OSU and what happened?

Every one outside the Big10 is aware that OSU for the most part gets a pretty easy walk to the top. Other teams do to of course. LSU has to play Alabama this weekend. OSU, Maryland. 
 

Bottom line, OSU hasn’t been tested yet. If they blow out PSU I’ll give them a good shot to win the NC. If they win by one score, they’ll be humiliated in the NC.

[iacas]

1 minute ago, Vinsk said:

You, the others are missing the point. You can’t just ignore a teams recent history especially when the team is for the most part carried over from last season.

Except that… you can.

College football is still often about a few key positions, and not only do those positions change frequently from year to year, even if the same player returns, he often changes his own play quite dramatically year over year.

An NHL team can swap out the goalie and go from a cellar dweller to a Stanley Cup contender. Hell, teams have swapped out their head coach and done the same in the same season (including the Penguins… twice… in the last decade).

Who cares if the punter is the same as last year? There's a ton of turnover in college football.

What happened three years ago is pretty much completely irrelevant. Two years ago. Even last year.

Yeah, you need to base the initial rankings on something, but once the season begins and teams start getting their games in… you have more relevant data based on this season.

[saevel25]

5 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Really? And how do you suppose this miserable, unranked team has such a ranking? Because they’ve played nobody. Zero. But @saevel25 and others just look at the numbers.

Those numbers are adjusted weekly based on strength of opponent.Here is the thing. Weekly results may not line up with the numbers. 

5 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

But he just looks at numbers and says...hey....Cincinnati is a beast of a team. Of course they are, they’ve only played pure chumps and easily run up their stats when they’re playing 5A high school level teams. They played OSU and what happened?

I would never say that. There is a reason why UCF never cracked the top 5 a few years ago even though going undefeated. They played a weak schedule and the advanced metrics showed that. 

 Again, I would be the first to admit when the big ten is down. I don’t just jump on the bandwagon like a fanatical fan.  The stats, adjusted for strength of opponent show the big ten as the 2nd best conference. 

6 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Bottom line, OSU hasn’t been tested yet. If they blow out PSU I’ll give them a good shot to win the NC. If they win by one score, they’ll be humiliated in the NC.

Back this statement up with facts. 

Here are some charts showing how teams fluctuate from preseason to the most recent week. Preseason assumptions, like your generic comments don’t pan out. Maybe for two teams, Clemson and Alabama, but they are outliers. 

Comparing LSU’s wins versus Top 50 to OSU. OSU’s opponents are highlighted in red. Also, LSU won these games with an average scoring margin of 11.7. OSU beat these opponents by an average of 34.5! Guess what, OSU would do the same against LSU’s opponents.

 

[Vinsk]

7 minutes ago, iacas said:

Except that… you can.

College football is still often about a few key positions, and not only do those positions change frequently from year to year, even if the same player returns, he often changes his own play quite dramatically year over year.

An NHL team can swap out the goalie and go from a cellar dweller to a Stanley Cup contender. Hell, teams have swapped out their head coach and done the same in the same season (including the Penguins… twice… in the last decade).

Who cares if the punter is the same as last year? There's a ton of turnover in college football.

What happened three years ago is pretty much completely irrelevant. Two years ago. Even last year.

Yeah, you need to base the initial rankings on something, but once the season begins and teams start getting their games in… you have more relevant data based on this season.

I agree with this. But again, numbers alone can be misleading. This is why Minnesota isn’t ranked very high despite being undefeated. It’s HOW they got their good numbers. OSU is far above anyone in the Big 10 except for PSU. Michigan will be humiliated by OSU. I don’t care how many numbers @saevel25 pulls up, Maryland, FAU, Rutgers, NW, Indiana, are all cupcakes. Period. 

Geesh....all these charts and numbers. Yeah, I get it. They were all done last two seasons too @saevel25 and they laid an egg both seasons. That’s why I say what I say. If PSU gives OSU a hard time OSU will get whipped in the Playoffs. Why? Because they don’t have what your numbers can show. Individual talent, speed, power, team dynamics. I SEE and FEEL like many others do that SEC football is just on a higher level than Big10. 
It’s like when that announcers kid was watching football with him and the dad was flipping back and fourth between a Big10 game and an SEC. The dad switched to Big10 and the kid says, ‘go back to that other game’ dad asks why and the kid says ‘ because it’s a lot faster.’

[iacas]

@Vinsk, I still don't know much of anything about college football, but this whole time it feels like to me that you're just doing what people do in golf when they "feel" like putting is more important than approach shots, even citing a few rounds they've played recently or something.

The data is the data. Interpreting it is still important, but… it's just data.

[klineka]

15 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

 I don’t care how many numbers @saevel25 pulls up, Maryland, FAU, Rutgers, NW, Indiana, are all cupcakes. Period. 

C'mon man that sounds just as bad as a Jack supporter saying I dont care about the rest of the wins, 18>15.

If all of those teams are allegedly cupcakes, what does that say about LSU's schedule considering they have played and beaten two top 10 teams but still have a lower strength of schedule than OSU, who has played over half of their games against alleged cupcakes?

18 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Individual talent, speed, power, team dynamics. 

OSU has all of that at a very high level this season, much higher than in previous seasons.

18 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

I SEE and FEEL like many others do that SEC football is just on a higher level than Big10. 

But that doesn't mean that by default every team in the SEC is better than every team in the Big10. 

[ncates00]

3 minutes ago, klineka said:

C'mon man that sounds just as bad as a Jack supporter saying I dont care about the rest of the wins, 18>15.

Those aren't really comparable arguments.

 

3 minutes ago, klineka said:

OSU has all of that at a very high level this season, much higher than in previous seasons.

True.

 

3 minutes ago, klineka said:

But that doesn't mean that by default every team in the SEC is better than every team in the Big10. 

That's not what he's arguing.  Top to bottom, the SEC as a whole is better.  That doesn't mean individual teams from other conferences can't be better than other individual teams within the SEC, e.g., OSU, in fact, is much better than my Vols.

[Vinsk]

28 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

Guess what, OSU would do the same against LSU’s opponents.

It’s college football. Did the numbers show Illinois beating Wisconsin? I like your charts and data,,,, I wanna know what you think, just your own intuition.

[saevel25]

Just now, ncates00 said:

That's not what he's arguing.  Top to bottom, the SEC as a whole is better.  That doesn't mean individual teams from other conferences can't be better than other individual teams within the SEC, e.g., OSU, in fact, is much better than my Vols.

The stats say otherwise. Bill Connelly has been doing these metrics for a long time. He has conference adjustments. This year the B10 is up. 
 

Looks like if you combined the SEC and B10.

B10, SEC, SEC, SEC, B10, B10, B10, SEC, SEC, B10, SEC, B10, B10, B10, SEC, SEC...

Yes the SEC has more elite teams. Yet the B10 has a good number of teams in that good to very good. The issue is, OSU is way above everyone else. 
 

6 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

It’s college football. Did the numbers show Illinois beating Wisconsin? I like your charts and data,,,, I wanna know what you think, just your own intuition.

Not initially, no, but I am talking about averages. You are isolation one time instances. Nothing is 100% predictive. I never said the numbers are. 
 

After hearing what Urban say about Illinois defense did in their scheme, I’m not surprised that it happened if a team figures something out that significant. OSU took it to another level a week later. 

[Vinsk]

14 minutes ago, saevel25 said:

The stats say otherwise. Bill Connelly has been doing these metrics for a long time. He has conference adjustments. This year the B10 is up. 
 

Looks like if you combined the SEC and B10.

B10, SEC, SEC, SEC, B10, B10, B10, SEC, SEC, B10, SEC, B10, B10, B10, SEC, SEC...

Yes the SEC has more elite teams. Yet the B10 has a good number of teams in that good to very good. The issue is, OSU is way above everyone else. 
 

Not initially, no, but I am talking about averages. You are isolation one time instances. Nothing is 100% predictive. I never said the numbers are. 
 

After hearing what Urban say about Illinois defense did in their scheme, I’m not surprised that it happened if a team figures something out that significant. OSU took it to another level a week later. 

No numbers of course, but I just don’t see any team in the Big10 given us any perspective of how good OSU is. OSU is far and above any team from what I’ve seen imo. Michigan? Their bad outweighs their good. PSU? Possibly. This is why I’m banking so much on that game. It’s like LSU/Alabama. Alabama a mystery due to their abysmal schedule. But regardless if they put up a win over LSU, they’ve got something gong on with some juice. Same to me if OSU beats PSU by 2 scores or more...then I think it’s finally going to be an interesting NC.

[saevel25]

4 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

No numbers of course, but I just don’t see any team in the Big10 given us any perspective of how good OSU is.

Number are on the left of the chart. 

You could be true, but that doesn’t mean the B10 is a weak conference. It could be that OSU is just playing that well this year. You can’t compare an entire conference based on how dominant one team is. 
 

8 minutes ago, Vinsk said:

Same to me if OSU beats PSU by 2 scores or more...then I think it’s finally going to be an interesting NC.

Still, PSU could be a really good team. I wouldn’t judge a close game as a negative. 

[klineka]

35 minutes ago, ncates00 said:

Those aren't really comparable arguments.

Sure they are. In both cases people purposefully ignore relevant data and base their entire argument on one or two facts when there are numerous other facts that support the other side.

[mcanadiens]

College football is so top heavy that people always insist on comparing what teams got creamed by who. It's what the sport, unfortunately, leaves us with for a large part of the season. To me, it's a waste of effort. Arguing about whether a win against Cincinnati is more impressive than Southern Miss or Duke is silly.True NC contenders are going to play two or three games a year that are truly meaningful. These are games where the talent and depth is actually reasonable close and things like match-ups, strategy, perseverance and luck make the difference.

I'll admit that I thought the Buckeyes' game with Wisconsin was going to be a much closer affair that it turned out. Can't read too much into that now.

Here are some I'm really looking forward to. 

LSU-Alabama (LSU's prior wins v. Florida and Auburn well-noted and why LSU is my personal No.1 at the moment)

OSU-Penn State

Alabama-Auburn

OSU-TTUN (Frightening after the pounding they put on Notre Dame)

Georgia-Auburn

Would have liked to see a better late-season match-up for Clemson than Wake Forest.