General COVID-19 Topic

[TN94z]

No new positive cases in my area since opening everything up. Any floors in our hospital that were reserved for COVID are opened back up. Still required to wear our masks at work, which I cannot stand. Most people complain about breathing issues with the masks on.

[CarlSpackler]

@nicolas wieder I he

21 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

Disagree. As a physician for 30 years and with friends in the CDC and WHO at high administrative levels, this type of comment is potentially damaging and usually meant to massage the data of only one side. The side of who want to design their own personal public health habits under the umbrella of freedoms, because, frankly, they are frustrated with the requirements.

There are plenty of people in the medical profession who disagree with you. They are being pressured into chalking up non-related deaths as COVID. Why? Is that not manipulating the data?

[nicolas wieder]

On 5/14/2020 at 9:21 AM, CarlSpackler said:

They weren't all that great, but I imagine we will be seeing more and more of this.

FALLOUT: 51 Steak ‘n Shake restaurants are now shut down permanently

---

Steak ’n Shake has permanently closed 51 of its company-owned restaurants nationwide, and anot...

 

This is plain stupid.

Boy Scouts banned from planting American flags on veterans' graves for Memorial Day due to coronavirus

---

A longtime Memorial Day weekend tradition to honor veterans is now canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, but there are persisting calls...

 

Entire business models have been turned upside down overnight. One example- SoulCycle. How will they ever be able to come back from this when their entire business model is volume based subscription in numerous physical locations. THey are not like restaurants that can offer pick up service as a new money stream. Interest in Peloton will soar as a result. They now own the territory by being the first there. 

[CarlSpackler]

2 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

Entire business models have been turned upside down overnight. One example- SoulCycle. How will they ever be able to come back from this when their entire business model is volume based subscription in numerous physical locations. THey are not like restaurants that can offer pick up service as a new money stream. Interest in Peloton will soar as a result. They now own the territory by being the first there. 

There are a few businesses that will flourish, but I believe the losers will far outweigh the winners.

[nicolas wieder]

1 minute ago, CarlSpackler said:

@nicolas wieder I he

There are plenty of people in the medical profession who disagree with you. They are being pressured into chalking up non-related deaths as COVID. Why? Is that not manipulating the data?

Your comment is simply inaccurate. No reputable person on a national level disagrees with the basic facts I presented. Any suggestion that they don't is political not science. I have no problem with that. Politics have a lot of leeway when it comes to planning and interpreting data for the sake of their communities. But pretending that differences in state regulations are based on fundamental disagreements in scientific data doesn't bring us further in acting most efficiently in large scale problems such as pandemics. What you are describing is the amount of risk communities are willing to take when faced with data which outlines basic benefit risk ratios. That is a worthwhile and important political discussion we need to have. But it doesn't put facts into doubt. It only uses the facts we have to make decisions that may have varying risks in various communities. Doctors make those type of judgements everyday. We may be more comfortable with accepting these types of decisions than the general population. I think this enhanced comfort may apply to engineers, as well as lawyers, in the decisions they often have to make between established knowledge base and requirements of an individual case. But can't speak for them.

[CarlSpackler]

16 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

Your comment is simply inaccurate. No reputable person on a national level disagrees with the basic facts I presented. Any suggestion that they don't is political not science. I have no problem with that.

My doctor disagrees with you. How is that inaccurate? She may not be at the national level, but that means she is not influenced by politics. Her responsibility is to her patients and the local community. She is 100% convinced that "the surge" happened in Jan-Feb where she saw many "respiratory virus" cases. I was one of them. My son was diagnosed with a "respiratory virus" in the hospital back in January. When I was going through it, I would have welcomed death on several occasions. I saw her last month about an unrelated issue, she agreed that I most likely had COVID-19 along with "a lot of her patients". Antibody testing is showing that COVID-19 has been in Ohio for quite some time.

I am supportive of and practicing social distancing as much as possible. I simply do not believe that those making decisions to close everything have taken all of the data into account. I also believe that those wanting to remove all restrictions are doing the same. I told my wife the other night that I think 33% of people are too concerned about this and another 33% are not concerned enough.

[nicolas wieder]

27 minutes ago, CarlSpackler said:

My doctor disagrees with you. How is that inaccurate? She may not be at the national level, but that means she is not influenced by politics. Her responsibility is to her patients and the local community. She is 100% convinced that "the surge" happened in Jan-Feb where she saw many "respiratory virus" cases. I was one of them. My son was diagnosed with a "respiratory virus" in the hospital back in January. When I was going through it, I would have welcomed death on several occasions. I saw her last month about an unrelated issue, she agreed that I most likely had COVID-19 along with "a lot of her patients". Antibody testing is showing that COVID-19 has been in Ohio for quite some time.

I am supportive of and practicing social distancing as much as possible. I simply do not believe that those making decisions to close everything have taken all of the data into account. I also believe that those wanting to remove all restrictions are doing the same. I told my wife the other night that I think 33% of people are too concerned about this and another 33% are not concerned enough.

What your doctor says doesn't conflict with anything I said or anything that isn't currently in the news. What she is saying is accurate and is not related to the comments I made. Iny  fact what she says is accurate and also completely unrelated to the points I made. That's confusing. You're conflating science and restrictions such as closing or opening up states. All these decisions have been made with the knowledge of the agreed upon facts. Some have been willing to combine mitigation strategies with increased/ or decreased restrictions based on policy decisions for their communities. I have no idea what your investment is in saying there are disagreements. Just to be clear, there is international consensus on this. International consensus based on decades of hard science. And, I might add, your doctor is absolutely correct on the unrelated comment of hers you are paraphrasing. Actually, there have been cases documented even earlier(in December) that were confirmed by blood samples that had been taken from severely affected patients in France and were still viable. See below.

This is an evolving crisis. No scientist worth their salt would fixate on one fact or theory and reject other new data as it comes along. Only politics and religion creates those who can't be supple enough with their thinking to take in new data. That's why they are considered emotional beliefs, and not data. It doesn't diminish those ideas, but simply differentiates them as thoughts, philosophies, or beliefs, and not data. A scientist, as most people with opinions, who believes in the death penalty or abortion will almost never be convinced to believe in banning the death penalty, or banning abortion. But surprisingly that same scientist will defend his data and at the same time be open to how his or her original theory has potentially been changed by that data. 

Anyone who hasn't really experienced the scientific process has difficulty understanding this concept, as I who have never been in law enforcement, for instance, would poorly understand the validity of methods used that have been established on the basis of many years of experience and study in a field, I myself, have never studied adequately.

At a certain point one simply has to decide how much trust they are willing to give. And that is often based on a combination of emotions, and the track record of success that the person or entity requiring trust has shown. 

France's first coronavirus case 'was in December'

---

The case means Covid-19 may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought.

 

[iacas]

2 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

Disagree.

I don't disagree. I have seen data massaged in both directions.

I don't think you can deny that. It's happened.

2 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

As a physician for 30 years and with friends in the CDC and WHO at high administrative levels, this type of comment is potentially damaging and usually meant to massage the data of only one side.

Usually doesn't mean always, so right there you've admitted that it's possible (likely?) that there's been massaging in both directions. (emphasis added)

2 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

The bottom line is that the best preventative we have so far is social distancing, and droplet barriers, whether that be mask or lucite in public places.

"Massging the data" doesn't mean you disagree with statements like that.

BTW, do you honestly believe only about 4,000 people in China died of COVID-19?

[CarlSpackler]

22 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

Anyone who hasn't really experienced the scientific process has difficulty understanding this concept, as I who have never been in law enforcement, for instance, would poorly understand the validity of methods used that have been established on the basis of many years of experience and study in a field, I myself, have never studied adequately.

I have been working with data and data analysts for about 30 years. I am not going into religion or politics. We don't discuss those things here. It never goes well. I am simply focusing on the data and analysis of it causing our leaders to take extreme measures. Closing down the economy of the USA for almost 3 months is something I never thought would be seen. They better have some strong data to back that up. Initially we were told that it was for 2-3 weeks just to flatten the curve. Fine. That turned into a month... then 2... Now they are cancelling things all summer long and business are going by the wayside. I am not saying changes didn't need to be made. Social distancing is fine. Barriers are fine. Keeping the economy closed... I'm not on board with that.

[nicolas wieder]

22 minutes ago, iacas said:

I don't disagree. I have seen data massaged in both directions.

I don't think you can deny that. It's happened.

Usually doesn't mean always, so right there you've admitted that it's possible (likely?) that there's been massaging in both directions. (emphasis added)

"Massging the data" doesn't mean you disagree with statements like that.

BTW, do you honestly believe only about 4,000 people in China died of COVID-19?

That's a political talking point. Scientific data regards the nature, transmission,tracking and  treatment.And is vetted and peer reviewed. I have taken pains in my comments to refer to terms like consensus, and 'agreed upon data' .The epidemiological data you quote is something neither you nor I can confirm. nor really anyone yet. That does not count as data. That's a news scroll item on TV. Eventually we will know the true final agreed upon data. Hopefully.  I am sure if you asked a chinese health expert they may disagree with you.

Everything else is fun to argue about, I guess, but not really worth discussing. the kind of data you quote is like those little shiny things that keep distracting our attention.   

My hope is that despite the political, religious, and other affiliations, it's possible to agree on the data, and what accurate and consensus data is and simply disagree on the implementation of legislative solutions.  

Good luck! Stay safe

27 minutes ago, CarlSpackler said:

I have been working with data and data analysts for about 30 years. I am not going into religion or politics. We don't discuss those things here. It never goes well. I am simply focusing on the data and analysis of it causing our leaders to take extreme measures. Closing down the economy of the USA for almost 3 months is something I never thought would be seen. They better have some strong data to back that up. Initially we were told that it was for 2-3 weeks just to flatten the curve. Fine. That turned into a month... then 2... Now they are cancelling things all summer long and business are going by the wayside. I am not saying changes didn't need to be made. Social distancing is fine. Barriers are fine. Keeping the economy closed... I'm not on board with that.

"They better have some strong data to back that up."

When you say they you are referring to our government. Scientists only make recommendations. 'They' can't force governments to do anything. Speak to your congressman. That is not a data issue.  The results of all the different strategies will eventually be seen. There may be both some very surprising, and disappointing results. All we can do now given where we are is to mitigate for now and then hope we learn some lessons for the next time. 

I'll tell you something which I think has been a novel advance. The push towards opening led to looking at mitigation in a new way. Recommendations in the past were universal. This is the first time we have really looked at public pandemic health policy in a 'one size does not fit all' manner. That's exciting and should bring rewards for planning the next response. 

Good Luck! Stay safe!

 

[bwdial]

When Georgia first opened up, massage parlors were some of the first businesses that were allowed to open, so I guess it shouldn't be surprising that Georgia massaged its data, mostly by flipping dates so that new cases appeared to be going down, when they were actually rising.

[CarlSpackler]

18 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

I'll tell you something which I think has been a novel advance. The push towards opening led to looking at mitigation in a new way. Recommendations in the past were universal. This is the first time we have really looked at public pandemic health policy in a 'one size does not fit all' manner. That's exciting and should bring rewards for planning the next response.

You say that as if this is the first wave of a series of pandemics that will lead to government takeover of everything. I wasn't scared until now.

I'm just curious though, are you here to discuss golf, or are you trolling the Internet replicating talking points about COVID-19?

[nicolas wieder]

2 hours ago, CarlSpackler said:

You say that as if this is the first wave of a series of pandemics that will lead to government takeover of everything. I wasn't scared until now.

I'm just curious though, are you here to discuss golf, or are you trolling the Internet replicating talking points about COVID-19?

haha! well I guess when all else fails accuse someone of a conspiracy! 

I didn't start the thread or go on and on with opinions about COVID 19. In fact, you should look at the number of comments ive made in this topic and compare to yours.  These are important discussions to have openly. I thought having this on a golf site was interesting.

We have recently had a pandemic in the last 20 years. I'll let you guess which one. These are all great discussions so I have no beef to make with anyone. I enjoy thinking about this stuff, just like I enjoy the mental game of golf. 

There absolutely will be another pandemic!! OMG!! This one will be a great learning experience though and I am not scared about discussing these matters. When I saw all of your posts on COVID I thought you were interested as well. I apologize for making that assumption. This is an anxious time for everyone and it will be very interesting looking back on this and see how everyone's life has changed. 

Hit 'em straight! and Stay safe!!

Cheers

 

 

[CarlSpackler]

31 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

just like I enjoy the mental game of golf

🤦‍♂️

[iacas]

3 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

That's a political talking point.

No, it's not, and you can't just dismiss everything as "political" when you disagree with it.

3 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

Scientific data regards the nature, transmission,tracking and  treatment. And is vetted and peer reviewed.

That's not what people are talking about here when they're talking about "massaging the numbers."

3 hours ago, nicolas wieder said:

The epidemiological data you quote

I didn't quote any.

45 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

haha! well I guess when all else fails accuse someone of a conspiracy! 

That's not far off from what you're doing, man.

I'm out.

[CarlSpackler]

I am presently out to breakfast for the first time since March. This was our Saturday morning date for years, so it’s nice to be back. Our server is our regular. She will get a really nice tip. 
Last night we went to several of our haunts. We had dinner at Little York Tavern and then went to the bar where I’ve played many times. The bar was dead. Very sad, but it sounds like live music can start next week. Fingers crossed since I have a gig scheduled for next Friday. 
People are behaving. It’s good to see things opening. 

[nicolas wieder]

On 5/21/2020 at 5:07 PM, iacas said:

No, it's not, and you can't just dismiss everything as "political" when you disagree with it.

That's not what people are talking about here when they're talking about "massaging the numbers."

I didn't quote any.

That's not far off from what you're doing, man.

I'm out.

Wow. just checked back in. And a Jim Rome reference too. Awesome!

I see I must have struck a nerve. I think if you stick to data and separate that from legislative decisions or state regulations you'll find a happy medium. Try to remember that personal public health policy is what guides personal health behavior, not political decisions. Please stay safe and good luck. I'm in! Always. 

[iacas]

12 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

And a Jim Rome reference too.

Nope. Not sure what you're talking about with that one.

13 minutes ago, nicolas wieder said:

I see I must have struck a nerve.

You did not.