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iacas

General COVID-19 Topic

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A lot of things appear different in different areas of the country because things are delayed from one another. Obviously the entry points into the US from China are mainly on the West Coast and NYC is the main entry point from Europe (Italy amongst other places), so naturally the spread from those points started earlier than the rest of the country. The virus does not propagate on its own: it needs new hosts all the time and the hosts are the ones doing the traveling... 

Short of enacting a shelter-in-place at the national level, the virus is going to find its way to everywhere currently closed after those locations re-open, from people traveling from the places that are currently open. And you can't judge in real-time either because the inoculation period is anywhere from 1 to 14 days.

The number of cases currently experienced in one location is only a function of transmissions that occurred 1 to 14 days ago and the number of people that have been tested, and since we are currently not testing anybody who is not symptomatic (except VIPs I guess), we have really no way of knowing the true extent today: we'll only know in about 2 weeks from the people that are really sick then how many cases we have today, more or less. Until the growth of the number of cases day over day is in the low single digits, we are not out of the woods. FYI, Italy is still in the high single digits, like 8.5% growth day over day.

To make things worse, about half of the people with the virus are asymptomatic and can still transmit it to someone else, so the real situation is much worse than the current numbers show, and those numbers are really not good. The US just became #1in number of reported cases, surpassing China (I know, China may not have fully disclosed, etc...), but the situation is going to get much worse, everywhere, and specially in the states/areas where measures to restrict transmission have been lagging: are you listening Mississipi and Florida? No, they are not. Science be dammed, and ideology drives everything: after all MS is not China, you know (straight from the Gov.'s mouth)...

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29 minutes ago, sjduffers said:

To make things worse, about half of the people with the virus are asymptomatic

Which may actually be a good thing - more people may already have immunity than we realize.

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2 minutes ago, iacas said:

Which may actually be a good thing - more people may already have immunity than we realize.

Nowhere near enough to get to herd immunity and slow the number of new infections though: that is achieved with around 70% of immune people.

The problem with asymptomatic cases in that they are still infectious so transmission from those individuals is really hard to avoid, unless they stay well away from anybody not immune yet.  Not currently being able to do surveillance testing (e.g. semi-random testing of the whole population, just like polling) means we don't know how many of those cases there are and where. That's why the botched testing situation in the US is really harming the fight forward...

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7 minutes ago, sjduffers said:

Nowhere near enough to get to herd immunity and slow the number of new infections though: that is achieved with around 70% of immune people.

No, every immune person slows the spread. 70% is necessary to stop it quickly.

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11 minutes ago, iacas said:

No, every immune person slows the spread. 70% is necessary to stop it quickly.

This.

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24 minutes ago, iacas said:

No, every immune person slows the spread. 70% is necessary to stop it quickly.

True enough but...  Even if you multiply the confirmed U.S. cases by 100, you still get less than 3% of the population.   Just saying.

Edited by No Mulligans

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Sure. But even at the lowest number of 40% immunity cited before this thing peters out, we are talking about 130 millions people and with a CFR of 1%, that's 1.3 million dead bodies.  We have a long way to go.

Btw, I meant incubation is 1 to 14 days, not inoculation. doh!

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I'm pretty sure it came through my house back in January. It started with my son. We took him to the hospital where he was diagnosed with a respiratory virus. We all came down with it and coughed our guts out and ran a fever on and off for almost 2 weeks. I felt like hell and would have welcomed death a few times. I'm guessing that some of the Chinese students at my son's college brought it back after Christmas break. If it was that, I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. If it wasn't and the symptoms are worse, God help us.

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53 minutes ago, sjduffers said:

Sure.

Just stop there. Every immunity slows the spread. That's all I said. I didn't say "greatly slows" or "stops" or anything like that. I think I'm being fair about this: I'm not being only positive or only negative. I'm trying to stay somewhat in the middle.

Here's a quote from the article I posted in the other topic:

Quote

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

I doubt that number (half already infected) is realistic, but if it's 30%, that's a big head start.

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10 minutes ago, iacas said:

Just stop there. Every immunity slows the spread. That's all I said. I didn't say "greatly slows" or "stops" or anything like that. I think I'm being fair about this: I'm not being only positive or only negative. I'm trying to stay somewhat in the middle.

Here's a quote from the article I posted in the other topic:

I doubt that number (half already infected) is realistic, but if it's 30%, that's a big head start.

I read that or something like that today. Interested to see what they find.

The lead doctors also said the original models are not matching up with what is actually happening. That is very promising. I’m hoping they have a soft open to the restrictions soon (in areas with low incidence). 

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16 minutes ago, iacas said:

Just stop there. Every immunity slows the spread. That's all I said. I didn't say "greatly slows" or "stops" or anything like that. I think I'm being fair about this: I'm not being only positive or only negative. I'm trying to stay somewhat in the middle.

Here's a quote from the article I posted in the other topic:

I doubt that number (half already infected) is realistic, but if it's 30%, that's a big head start.

I doubt that number (half already infected) is realistic, but if it's 30%, that's a big head start.

Unfortunately, that is currently data we do not yet have. Until a quick test is proven, reliable and sufficiently widely available (eg the 15 minute pin prick test), modelling and subsequent policy resolution is punting in the dark. We have never been more dependent on the scientists.

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6 hours ago, Slim_Pivot said:

I’m hoping they have a soft open to the restrictions soon (in areas with low incidence). 

If this is done prematurely it's the worst possible thing that can happen. And they won't know that it's premature until it's too late. If you have areas of low incidence you have to shut down all roads in and out. Otherwise you'll no longer have low incidence in that area.

Anyone with any knowledge on the subject is basically saying that you should be prepared to be staying at home unless going out for essential things until the end of June and that is a MINIUMUM.

 

6 hours ago, fredf said:

We have never been more dependent on the scientists.

100% correct.

Don't listen to people who talk about "beautiful" dates or "beautiful" timelines. They have the potential to kill thousands and seem hell bent on doing so.

Edited by leftybutnotPM

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11 hours ago, iacas said:

Which may actually be a good thing - more people may already have immunity than we realize.

Have researchers confirmed you get immunity after getting it? Last I heard it was still a question. Your body is not 100% effective at that. 

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4 hours ago, leftybutnotPM said:

Anyone with any knowledge on the subject is basically saying that you should be prepared to be staying at home unless going out for essential things until the end of June and that is a MINIUMUM.

First, like most, absolutes are stupid. This one is wrong.

Second, June is far too long for many people who have already run out of savings.

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1 hour ago, Papa Steve 55 said:

Have researchers confirmed you get immunity after getting it? Last I heard it was still a question. Your body is not 100% effective at that. 

That’s one of the things we need to know ASAP. Even if it’s just for the short term. Along with an antibody test and a mass testing regime applying it.

8 minutes ago, iacas said:

First, like most, absolutes are stupid. This one is wrong.

Second, June is far too long for many people who have already run out of savings.

This is the problem government has to weigh up. That’s is what BJ and the Donald are being paid for. What is the financial pain that can be endured against any gains in slowing the spread of Covid Such that 

1. Can the health services cope with level of infection and cases requiring hospitalisation?

2.When must we resume economic activity to stop the breakdown in the economy being irreversible?

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xxbergamo-photos-videoSixteenByNineJumbo

No country has been hit harder by the coronavirus than Italy, and no province has suffered as many losses as Bergamo. Photos and voices...
bf319c6b-3b3d-4abd-b0f1-a7e30bb9d593-GTY

The CDC botched the coronavirus test. The FDA took weeks to allow others to fix it. Those delays contributed to the current crisis.

 

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5 hours ago, iacas said:

First, like most, absolutes are stupid. This one is wrong.

Second, June is far too long for many people who have already run out of savings.

My post has nothing to do with what I would like or how much money I have or how much money anyone else has.

I'm talking about the directives that are being put in place by governments, not what my personal advice is.

Half way through April is far too long for most people, but we are being told to expect lockdowns for months not weeks.

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