95 - 2 x GIR Spreadsheet

[iacas]

6 minutes ago, Missouri Swede said:

Yeah,  but I didn't know if I needed to adjust anything in entering my rounds, like add 1 to my score to make it equivalent to a par 72 course.

I’m not worried about it. I doubt it’s going to be that accurate where a strike matters.

[iacas]

I sorted the date column again, and added my 74 with 12 GIR and 29 putts.

The formula is off by 3, but is off by 5 if I would have taken 31 putts.

[TourSpoon]

13 hours ago, iacas said:

The formula is off by 3, but is off by 5 if I would have taken 31 putts.

The data is pretty interesting so far....

I think I get the 31 putts (over and under is the variance) as being an optimal predictor of score given the number of greens hit. Please elaborate on the significance of 31. Thanks!  

[ChetlovesMer]

I just threw yesterday's round in there. Too many penalty shots yesterday. Otherwise it would have been pretty close. 

[iacas]

Posted my round of 75 with 32 putts and 11 GIR today. I didn't try to make too many putts, but it was still okay.

[phillyk]

On 5/18/2023 at 4:38 PM, iacas said:

I didn't try to make too many putts…

What’s that mean? You sandbagging? 😉

[iacas]

1 minute ago, phillyk said:

What’s that mean? You sandbagging? 😉

Sure. 🤣

[Darkfrog]

Added my round from this morning. Shot 80, 6 x GIR, 1 penalty, 29 putts.

[TourSpoon]

This morning I shot 75 with 10 greens, 29 putts, and 2 penalty strokes. The formula nailed it. @iacas what is the significance of 31  putts in the spreadsheet? 

[billchao]

I keep adding my rounds to the spreadsheet but I don't know if I'll ever play to the formula.

[WillieT]

Only 2nd full round in the past few weeks.  The prediction was pretty spot on, had a horrible day of putting - been averaging around 30 putts, Friday was 41.  

[iacas]

2 hours ago, billchao said:

I keep adding my rounds to the spreadsheet but I don't know if I'll ever play to the formula.

We'll be able to do some analysis later on. My early hunch is that your putting plus your penalties play a big role.

[Darkfrog]

Added today’s round. Shot 83 with 5 GIR, 0 penalties, and 33 putts. Off the top of my head I missed three putts inside 4 feet. 

[boogielicious]

I added my 86 with 1 GIR and 30 putts yesterday. I had a bunch of one putts.

[ssbn611]

Added a score from 5/27. Shot 88 and prediction is 85. This is a par 71 course.

[TourSpoon]

I put in 4 more scores today. All within 1 or 2 of predictions. Erik @iacas can you explain the significance of the 31 putts column? 

Edited June 6, 2023 by TourSpoon
Clarification

[iacas]

22 minutes ago, TourSpoon said:

I put in 4 more scores today. All within 1 or 2 of predictions. Erik @iacas can you explain the significance of the 31 putts column? 

No. It's just my best guess at maybe an adjustment. If you have 42 putts, the 95-2xGIR isn't going to work, of course.

[TourSpoon]

18 minutes ago, iacas said:

No. It's just my best guess at maybe an adjustment.

Its pretty interesting as an adjustment factor and has hit a few times. I know that my averages over a few years of stat keeping is between 30.5 and 31.5. You are definitely on to something.