How Would You Play This Hole? (Hole #10 at TPC Louisiana)

[klineka]

So I will be playing TPC Louisiana soon, where they play the Zurich Classic, and I've been doing some scouting both on Google Maps/ShotScope MyStrategy as well as on the PGA2K23 video game and can't quite figure out what the best/proper strategy is to play hole 10.

I will be playing it at 355yds with an approx. 9mph tailwind.

Here are some of my P-Avg distances (total, not carry) per ShotScope

Driver - 305yds, 60yd dispersion

3w - 268yds, 50yd dispersion

3i - 251yds, 49yd dispersion 

4i 230yds, no dispersion metric

Here is a picture of the hole along with various yardages marked

Red - 229yds, plays like 219  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 50yds

Green - 257yds, plays like 246  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 50yds

Brown - 279yds, plays like 266  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 60yds

Blue - 297yds, plays like 284  Width to still have a shot at green on this line (and not be in the left bunker), 44yds

 

 

I think (but not positive) that from these tees it isn't driver since a normal one easily reaches that massive left fairway bunker and I can't carry it, but unsure after that if I hit 3 wood and just accept the chance I might wind up in one of those pot bunkers, or hit a knockdown 3i/ full 4iron and lay back short of both pot bunkers but potentially bringing that right fairway bunker into play. 

Curious to hear how others would play this with my yardages. Thanks! 

[iacas]

Red and blue are, it seems, non-starters.

At 355, I would be highly tempted to look at the green, as the brown would have to land near that small bunker on the right or could run into the other one on the right.

[billchao]

I think it's full 3i short of the brown and carry the green and just hope you don't end up in the pot bunker. Is it in play? Yes. Are you statistically more likely to not be in it? Also, yes. There's not really much of an advantage to push it to the blue.

[klineka]

Got it, that makes sense. 

Looks like 3iron it is, thanks guys!

[boogielicious]

8 hours ago, klineka said:

Got it, that makes sense. 

Looks like 3iron it is, thanks guys!

Plus, I’ve seen you play with the 3 iron. You are very confident with that club.

[klineka]

To follow up on this now that I've played it, hitting something short of the pot bunkers (so 3iron for me from those tees) is absolutely the right choice.

The trees on the left are quite large and there are some mounds/uneven lies around both of the pot bunkers too. 

I mishit my 3iron slightly but was still in the fairway with like a 9iron to the middle of the green. 

[p1n9183]

Missed this one.. 

The closer you are to the green is always better because of strokes gained unless the hole didn't let you hit Driver for obvious reasons. 

On 7/1/2024 at 10:37 AM, klineka said:

The trees on the left are quite large and there are some mounds/uneven lies around both of the pot bunkers too.

With driver if you can carry the trees on the left and stay shot of the greenside bunker its the right call, but because of what you said this is not the right club. 

With 3 wood you have plenty of room (60 yards playable with 50 yards of dispersion for the club).  You are only challenging a small bunker and you are leaving yourself 70 yards to the hole.

Dropping back to 3 iron avoid the brown bunker but put another bunker in play so no gain there and all your shots are now 20 yards longer. Not a good trade.

Last option, lay back to 4 iron were practically all your shots are going to be in play but you are going to play all of them from 120. 

For me is a 3 wood all day long.   

[billchao]

3 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Dropping back to 3 iron avoid the brown bunker but put another bunker in play so no gain there and all your shots are now 20 yards longer. Not a good trade.

The pot bunker is bigger at 3 wood length so technically there's a greater chance of ending up in it, and isn't there the possibility of really getting a hold of one and ending up in the big bunker? And correct me if I'm wrong, but at the scratch level, isn't the difference between 70 yards vs 90 yards out in the fairway fairly negligible?

[Vinsk]

Well had you hit driver we’d have more to talk about regardless of the outcome. 😃

[klineka]

14 hours ago, billchao said:

The pot bunker is bigger at 3 wood length so technically there's a greater chance of ending up in it, and isn't there the possibility of really getting a hold of one and ending up in the big bunker? And correct me if I'm wrong, but at the scratch level, isn't the difference between 70 yards vs 90 yards out in the fairway fairly negligible?

FWIW, PGA Tour it's .05 difference from 60 to 80 in the fairway

 

12 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well had you hit driver we’d have more to talk about regardless of the outcome. 😃

I had only hit 1 fairway on the front 9 so absolutely no shot I was pulling driver. Only ended up hitting 3 fairways for the round but still managed 9 GIR and scrambled my butt off to still post a respectable score. 

[GolfLug]

Wide open hole. How you not gonna hit driver? It's just a bunker. Even if you don't get up and down you still looking at par.

[klineka]

6 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

Wide open hole. How you not gonna hit driver? It's just a bunker. Even if you don't get up and down you still looking at par.

The area where my driver would be landing is only ~60yds wide between hazards and per ShotScope's MyStrategy, my driver dispersion is 65yds.

The reward for hitting driver doesn't really seem to be there IMO relative to the risk.  

The bunker takes up like 1/3 of my shot zone for well struck drives, so roughly 1/3 of the time with well struck drives I'd be left with a ~50yd bunker shot to a very sloped green. 

[GolfLug]

1 hour ago, klineka said:

The area where my driver would be landing is only ~60yds wide between hazards and per ShotScope's MyStrategy, my driver dispersion is 65yds.

65 yard dispersion is wider than most fairways and yet you are a 2 handicap. You must get up and down a lot from shit unless in total jail. So I think hitting green from a fairway bunker (especially if it's only 50 yards) is a higher percentage shot (>50-60%), assuming you are not uncharacteristically bad at this shot. 

1 hour ago, klineka said:

The bunker takes up like 1/3 of my shot zone for well struck drives, so roughly 1/3 of the time with well struck drives I'd be left with a ~50yd bunker shot to a very sloped green. 

Sure but the pot bunker (brown) seems to be jail more than any other. You oughta fly that.  

1 hour ago, klineka said:

The reward for hitting driver doesn't really seem to be there IMO relative to the risk.  

In my very humble opinion it is your sacred duty as a non-professional longer hitting low cap to chase birdies as long as it is not total jail. 😜 

Edited July 3, 2024 by GolfLug

[iacas]

33 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

65 yard dispersion is wider than most fairways and yet you are a 2 handicap.

Vishal, what are you doing here? PGA Tour players are about 65 yards wide, often 70.

33 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

You must get up and down a lot from shit unless in total jail.

Huh?

33 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

So I think hitting green from a fairway bunker (especially if it's only 50 yards) is a higher percentage shot (>50-60%), assuming you are not uncharacteristically bad at this shot.

A 50-yard bunker shot is one of the toughest shots in golf. Are you okay? 🤣

[klineka]

41 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

65 yard dispersion is wider than most fairways and yet you are a 2 handicap.

Wider than most fairways, yes (thus why I don't hit 100% of my fairways), but most holes I play have 65+ yds between hazards (or areas where I can't easily advance my ball to nGIR) so the majority of the time when I hit driver I am able to find it and have a reasonable look at the green. 

That would not necessarily be the case on this hole, especially because a mishit driver brings those left trees into play.

 

41 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

So I think hitting green from a fairway bunker (especially if it's only 50 yards) is a higher percentage shot (>50-60%), assuming you are not uncharacteristically bad at this shot. 

PGA Tour players average 2.82 strokes to hole out from 40yds in the bunker and 3.15 strokes to hole out from 60yds in the bunker. 

2.82 strokes to hole out from the fairway is like 110yds and 3.15 strokes to hole out from the fairway is like 190yds. 

Now granted I would only have that 50yd bunker shot 1/3 of the time, but it's still a VERY difficult shot especially for amateurs.

 

41 minutes ago, GolfLug said:

In my very humble opinion it is your sacred duty as a non-professional longer hitting low cap to chase birdies as long as it is not total jail. 😜 

Haha trust me I love chasing birdies, but I'm averaging 2.78 birdies per round this year so that's not my issue, I need to make less bogies (5.2 per round) and doubles (0.42 per round) 

Edited July 3, 2024 by klineka

[GolfLug]

25 minutes ago, iacas said:

Vishal, what are you doing here? PGA Tour players are about 65 yards wide, often 70.

A 50-yard bunker shot is one of the toughest shots in golf. Are you okay? 🤣

Okay, I had these two assumptions wrong. That would be my premise for hitting driver. I promise I'm not high.. lol.

21 minutes ago, klineka said:

Now granted I would only have that 50yd bunker shot 1/3 of the time, but it's still a VERY difficult shot especially for amateurs.

Fair enough. 

[p1n9183]

I run the numbers to get a more accurate estimation... 
Considerations:
Players dispersion (95% of shots)
Driver: 70 yards
3Wood: 60 yards
3Iron: 50 yards.
4Iron: 45 yards. 

Landing Area at blue line (left to right).. 20 yards of bunker and 40 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 14 yards right of the greenside bunker. 

At Brown: 35 yards of fairway, 5 yards of bunker, 20 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 10 yards left of the 2nd bunker.

At green:  25 yards of fairway, 10 yards of bunker, 25 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 3 yards left of the shorter bunker. 

At red: 40 yards of fairway and 20 yards of bunker. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 15 yards left of the big bunker on the right. 

I used SG approach from the PGA tour and normal distribution for dispersion. 

Results: 

Blue: 19% of your shots are going to be in the bunker. 74% on the fairway and 7% in the trees (left + right). Distance to pin 50 yards in average. Spected score from trees is +0.66, 0 from sand and -0.35 from fairway. References: X recovery shot (trees), s = sand, f = fairway.  
Average score= 3.78. 

Brown:
 

Green: 

Red: 

 

In conclusion.. by the numbers.. the best strategy is to play Driver with an average of 3.78. 

Bonus.. let say you are really bad at long bunker shots so insted a 0 score average you putt it out side ways leaveing you a 3rd shot of 50 yards from the fairways.. the numbers changes as follows...

Now been on the bunker is +0.65 shot loose instead of 0. 3.9 average is still almost the best option, only 3 wood with 3.87 is better so unless you are terrible at that distance you should hit Driver.  

We can play further with the numbers but it doesn't change the outcome that much.

Edited July 3, 2024 by p1n9183

[klineka]

38 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

Landing Area at blue line (left to right).. 20 yards of bunker and 40 yards of fairway. Tree left and right of that. Ideal aim is 14 yards right of the greenside bunker. 

There's not 40yds of fairway at the blue line. There's like 19yds.

 

38 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

Blue: 19% of your shots are going to be in the bunker. 74% on the fairway and 7% in the trees (left + right). 

I don't know if there's anyone on the planet who is hitting a 19yd wide fairway 74% of the time from like 300yds

 

38 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

At Brown: 35 yards of fairway, 

Nope

 

 

40 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

At green:  25 yards of fairway, 

Again, nope.

 

 

41 minutes ago, p1n9183 said:

At red: 40 yards of fairway

And again, nope. The fairway is never 40yds wide on the entire hole.

Edited July 3, 2024 by klineka