How Would You Play This Hole? (Hole #10 at TPC Louisiana)

[klineka]

So I will be playing TPC Louisiana soon, where they play the Zurich Classic, and I've been doing some scouting both on Google Maps/ShotScope MyStrategy as well as on the PGA2K23 video game and can't quite figure out what the best/proper strategy is to play hole 10.

I will be playing it at 355yds with an approx. 9mph tailwind.

Here are some of my P-Avg distances (total, not carry) per ShotScope

Driver - 305yds, 60yd dispersion

3w - 268yds, 50yd dispersion

3i - 251yds, 49yd dispersion 

4i 230yds, no dispersion metric

Here is a picture of the hole along with various yardages marked

Red - 229yds, plays like 219  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 50yds

Green - 257yds, plays like 246  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 50yds

Brown - 279yds, plays like 266  Width to still have a shot at green on this line, 60yds

Blue - 297yds, plays like 284  Width to still have a shot at green on this line (and not be in the left bunker), 44yds

 

 

I think (but not positive) that from these tees it isn't driver since a normal one easily reaches that massive left fairway bunker and I can't carry it, but unsure after that if I hit 3 wood and just accept the chance I might wind up in one of those pot bunkers, or hit a knockdown 3i/ full 4iron and lay back short of both pot bunkers but potentially bringing that right fairway bunker into play. 

Curious to hear how others would play this with my yardages. Thanks! 

[iacas]

Red and blue are, it seems, non-starters.

At 355, I would be highly tempted to look at the green, as the brown would have to land near that small bunker on the right or could run into the other one on the right.

[billchao]

I think it's full 3i short of the brown and carry the green and just hope you don't end up in the pot bunker. Is it in play? Yes. Are you statistically more likely to not be in it? Also, yes. There's not really much of an advantage to push it to the blue.

[klineka]

Got it, that makes sense. 

Looks like 3iron it is, thanks guys!

[boogielicious]

8 hours ago, klineka said:

Got it, that makes sense. 

Looks like 3iron it is, thanks guys!

Plus, I’ve seen you play with the 3 iron. You are very confident with that club.

[klineka]

To follow up on this now that I've played it, hitting something short of the pot bunkers (so 3iron for me from those tees) is absolutely the right choice.

The trees on the left are quite large and there are some mounds/uneven lies around both of the pot bunkers too. 

I mishit my 3iron slightly but was still in the fairway with like a 9iron to the middle of the green. 

[p1n9183]

Missed this one.. 

The closer you are to the green is always better because of strokes gained unless the hole didn't let you hit Driver for obvious reasons. 

On 7/1/2024 at 10:37 AM, klineka said:

The trees on the left are quite large and there are some mounds/uneven lies around both of the pot bunkers too.

With driver if you can carry the trees on the left and stay shot of the greenside bunker its the right call, but because of what you said this is not the right club. 

With 3 wood you have plenty of room (60 yards playable with 50 yards of dispersion for the club).  You are only challenging a small bunker and you are leaving yourself 70 yards to the hole.

Dropping back to 3 iron avoid the brown bunker but put another bunker in play so no gain there and all your shots are now 20 yards longer. Not a good trade.

Last option, lay back to 4 iron were practically all your shots are going to be in play but you are going to play all of them from 120. 

For me is a 3 wood all day long.   

[billchao]

3 hours ago, p1n9183 said:

Dropping back to 3 iron avoid the brown bunker but put another bunker in play so no gain there and all your shots are now 20 yards longer. Not a good trade.

The pot bunker is bigger at 3 wood length so technically there's a greater chance of ending up in it, and isn't there the possibility of really getting a hold of one and ending up in the big bunker? And correct me if I'm wrong, but at the scratch level, isn't the difference between 70 yards vs 90 yards out in the fairway fairly negligible?

[Vinsk]

Well had you hit driver we’d have more to talk about regardless of the outcome. 😃

[klineka]

14 hours ago, billchao said:

The pot bunker is bigger at 3 wood length so technically there's a greater chance of ending up in it, and isn't there the possibility of really getting a hold of one and ending up in the big bunker? And correct me if I'm wrong, but at the scratch level, isn't the difference between 70 yards vs 90 yards out in the fairway fairly negligible?

FWIW, PGA Tour it's .05 difference from 60 to 80 in the fairway

 

12 hours ago, Vinsk said:

Well had you hit driver we’d have more to talk about regardless of the outcome. 😃

I had only hit 1 fairway on the front 9 so absolutely no shot I was pulling driver. Only ended up hitting 3 fairways for the round but still managed 9 GIR and scrambled my butt off to still post a respectable score. 

[GolfLug]

Wide open hole. How you not gonna hit driver? It's just a bunker. Even if you don't get up and down you still looking at par.